bwr827
Well-Known Member
DeLorean goal posts just hit 88 MPH.
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Is attendance really down at WDW this or…
- Thread starter coachb
- Start date
Insight and critical thinking are key skills to have. If you’re not willing to look at the whole picture, don’t try to interject your “thoughts” into the discussion.
Bob’s strategy is working. Squeeze more from those they can convince to come. Look at the shiny new thing! It’s worth paying more for!!
Everything is fine!
bwr827
Well-Known Member
Lol. I’m responding based on the countless comments here about how bad 2023’s numbers were.
And the accompanying conspiratorial remarks that those atrocious ‘23 estimates are why this report was not available.
el_super
Well-Known Member
So far, it looks like there has only been one quarter of lower attendance mentioned in the quarterly reports for WDW: Q1. Q2, as you mentioned, they didn't touch on attendance, but since results were pretty good for Q2, it seems safe to assume attendance was either up or just flat. For Q3 they've mentioned that attendance is flat.
Disney's financial Q1 though, is Oct through Dec. If the TEA/AECOM report is based on calendar year, that would have been reflected in the 2023 numbers, not the 2024 numbers. Which means as far as the TEA/AECOM reporting goes, and as reported by Disney, the 2024 numbers have just been flat year over year.
WDW still has five months to make up some ground in attendance, including the lucrative holiday season. So ultimately attendance might still be up for 2024.
2023 was bad, because the field is not 10 yards long. You think a 3.4% increase for your top park while two declined and the other had a 1-year bump is something to hang a hat on when attendance is still millions lower than it was in 2018? There is nothing opening anytime soon to draw people away from that minor little thing opening up the street next year. I guess the multitude of hotel rooms closed off and 18 months of deals (and counting) is a sign things are just peachy in the swamps. Carry on.
bwr827
Well-Known Member
Never said anything is peachy. Just surprised to see generally positive numbers when the discourse here is shades of “disaster”.
Laketravis
Well-Known Member
We are big park hoppers, typically no less than three parks a day such as my example. I've often wondered if we've increased the attendance for three parks rather than just one, and outside of Disney internals I don't know how a third party would be able to tell I'm the same guest that checked into three parks in one day.
Given that, if park hopping is not accounted for the actual amount of people on property could be substantially less than reported.
JD80
Well-Known Member
If they count the same way they've always counted, shouldn't be any issue.
Stripes
Premium Member
Well…pretty much all of the undeveloped land north of Big Thunder and south of the canal is marginally unsuitable. Most of this land will be used as gravel laydown yards for the Cars/Villains project. I think they may develop the land north of Haunted Mansion and south of the canal for part of a Villains dark ride show building.
North of the canal and Haunted Mansion there’s quite a bit of marginally suitable land but I imagine they wouldn’t want to develop land so close to the fireworks launch site.
West of Big Thunder there’s also quite a bit of marginally suitable land but I imagine developing that land comes with its own problems. It would also create a rather long dead end, unless they connected it with the rumored Adventureland expansion. This area is also being used as a gravel laydown yard for the Cars/Villains project, which suggests to me that they are killing two birds with one stone. Expanding the park using land that will be faster and easier to develop while in the meantime preparing the land west of Big Thunder and Tiana’s for a future expansion that will connect to Adventureland, thus avoiding a massive dead end.
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el_super
Well-Known Member
About as perfect an example of moving the goalposts there can be.
Yes. An increase in this environment, with the kind of revenue they are pulling in, is good news.
el_super
Well-Known Member
Just a guess, but it seems that the AECOM reporting is more in line with in-park estimates, which is a different method for counting admissions against the first use. When calculating which park gets the "credit" of admission, first entry makes sense.
In park estimates are the rough count of bodies in the park. It's what is used for scheduling and park hours calculation. For that calculation admission media doesn't matter.
DarkMetroid567
Well-Known Member
I’m not sure if TWDC has said as such, but do they even want Magic Kingdom to reach that high of a number? The existence of the hotel rooms obviously puts a kink in things, but those years of attendance did make MK truly miserable.
It’s not like it’s an unheard of thing, either. Disney could always re-open the floodgates on Disneyland APs and chooses not to, while OLC point-blank stated they wanted to reduce Tokyo Disney attendance and straight up killed annual passes.
In order….
North of the canal is not earmarked for expansion. Between MK Drive and the canal is (it was the proposed mid 90s Villains Land area)
West of Splash / BTM is an expansion area. Same as east of Storybook land (Or it was until they built a pond on it).
There’s also the plot south west of the PotC Show building (late 90s Fire Mountain area)
The biggest issue with the first one is it was never part of phase one in the late 60s. Any work here would be starting from scratch. West of Splash / BTM is less problematic. Of course, nothing is impossible if they want to spend the money to do it right.
Stripes
Premium Member
To be clear, are you referring to the area directly north of Under the Sea? It does appear that area is also marked marginally unsuitable. And being so close to fireworks launch site, I imagine it’s an expansion space that doesn’t rank very high on the priority list.
They’re using the expansion space west of Splash/Big Thunder as the gravel laydown yard for the Cars/Villains project, which will help in turning it from marginally suitable to suitable. I’d imagine they don’t want to proceed with this expansion though until they have plans in place to develop the “plot south west of the PotC Show building” so they can create a loop going from Adventureland to Frontierland and avoid a dead end situation with the expansion west of Big Thunder.
Yes. It’s far enough away to not be a consideration for the launch site although it would be a show building at the rear kind of design. The RR / canal would be the absolute northern limit though.
Dranth
Well-Known Member
There are absolutely issues and they can't keep pulling the same song and dance as it is already catching up to them in many different areas but, attendance was never going to drop off a cliff the way many kept thinking. Turns out, it wasn't even down overall. That doesn't mean everything is all rosy and great and in no universe should they not pay attention to the trend of multiple flat/down quarters in a row.
On that front, we are already seeing them trying to address some of those issues. Set aside some of the questionable placement for a minute and it is no mystery now why MK, DHS and AK were all targeted at D23. They want to maintain or grow that lead at MK, and boost DHS and AK which both saw declines.
That doesn't fix the main issue, pricing, but they are finally starting to do something.
Also, anyone who wants to bring up 2018/2019 crowd levels needs to take a moment and think about what they are saying. NO ONE should want to go back to those levels. If Disney wants to claim it was all part of their master plan to keep crowds down who cares? Legit or not, I can laugh at whatever marketing approved narrative they throw out there while enjoying a MUCH better experience with less people in the parks.
My family took our first trip to WDW in 2009. The entire reason we decided to do it was because of a promotion where you could enter MK for free on your birthday. My wife and I have birthdays that are three days apart, so the appeal of two free park passes was enough to get us to go. We enjoyed it so much we joined DVC a month after that trip.
In 2010, there was a promotion named Give a Day, Get a Disney Day. That enticed us to volunteer for a cleanup project at a local elementary school, and then use our free passes on an extra trip we hadn't planned on.
In 2012, we added an extra trip because of the One More Disney Day where MK was open for 24 hours on Leap Day.
In 2013, we added an extra trip because of the Monstrous Summer All Nighter 24-hour event.
In 2014, we added an extra trip because of the Rock Your Disney Side 24-hour event.
In 2015, we added an extra trip because of the Coolest Summer Ever 24-hour event.
We also used to purchase 10-day park passes with park hopper and 10 additional days of water parks, all with no expiration dates. The per day price ended up being very appealing and ensured we took a bunch of future trips.
There were often times when MK was open until 3 or 4 AM because of 3 hours of Extra Magic Hours. We made several trips based on this.
As you can tell, we loved the late-night stuff. Pleasant temperatures, no sunscreen needed, manageable crowds, etc.
The past few years, mainly due to crowds and prices, we only go to WDW around once a year, typically for a short runDisney trip and we often don't even go to a park unless it is for an after-race party or if a DVC event works out with the timing. So far in 2024, we only have a single day planned for WDW. There is a MNSSHP the night before we leave on a cruise out of Tampa that happens to work out. Last year, we rented most of our DVC points. This year, we are going to bank most of them and then decide later about renting or using.
I'm just sharing all of this with the ether.
In 2010, there was a promotion named Give a Day, Get a Disney Day. That enticed us to volunteer for a cleanup project at a local elementary school, and then use our free passes on an extra trip we hadn't planned on.
In 2012, we added an extra trip because of the One More Disney Day where MK was open for 24 hours on Leap Day.
In 2013, we added an extra trip because of the Monstrous Summer All Nighter 24-hour event.
In 2014, we added an extra trip because of the Rock Your Disney Side 24-hour event.
In 2015, we added an extra trip because of the Coolest Summer Ever 24-hour event.
We also used to purchase 10-day park passes with park hopper and 10 additional days of water parks, all with no expiration dates. The per day price ended up being very appealing and ensured we took a bunch of future trips.
There were often times when MK was open until 3 or 4 AM because of 3 hours of Extra Magic Hours. We made several trips based on this.
As you can tell, we loved the late-night stuff. Pleasant temperatures, no sunscreen needed, manageable crowds, etc.
The past few years, mainly due to crowds and prices, we only go to WDW around once a year, typically for a short runDisney trip and we often don't even go to a park unless it is for an after-race party or if a DVC event works out with the timing. So far in 2024, we only have a single day planned for WDW. There is a MNSSHP the night before we leave on a cruise out of Tampa that happens to work out. Last year, we rented most of our DVC points. This year, we are going to bank most of them and then decide later about renting or using.
I'm just sharing all of this with the ether.
TheMaxRebo
Well-Known Member
Just finished a 6 night stay at Walt Disney World. We travel in August often, including last year so thought I would share some thoughts on crowds we experienced - obviously just anecdotally and ymmv
Overall crowds:
- felt more crowded than last year, pathways more full, etc
- noticed more non-English being spoken so maybe international travel is up some?
- noticed more "first visit" buttons
& For firework viewing front two all around the lagoon was taken for Luminous by 8:30. 3 rows deep by show time. For HEA, hub taped off areas full >60mins before showtime, and announced Main St was at capacity 30mins before (we otied to watch while riding the speedway)
Hotel:
- pool was packed midday, everyday - challenge to get a lounger. We were at Kidani so perhaps DVC people still using/renting while other hotels are slower
Rides:
- felt like the top tier /most popular wee about the same wait (posted and in Lines app) or a little lower than last year
- BUT the lower tier rides were much longer. Thinking this is LLMP spreading out crowds and people taking a LL for a 2nd tier ride when wouldn't bother with G+.
- example, never seen the physical line for Nemo out the building
Dining:
- quick service was very crowded despite full staffing (at least for taking orders, can't speak for the kitchen). Took 30mins consistently to get food
- BUT table service reservations were wide open - when looking for stuff, even like day of for Akershus, Be Our Guest, etc, wide open
LLMP/VQ:
- we got for MK and DHS and got great use out of it. I will likely put a post in the dedicated thread with details. One that seemed to go quick and never saw come back was Jingle Cruise
- didn't get for Epcot and somewhat regretting it as we didn't get on Frozen or Remy. Wait was always higher than kids willing to wait (and not just posted time, we checked the physical lines and how far they stretched). Even during DeluxeExtra Hours they were hour or more (side note, Deluxe Extra Hours at Epcot is kind of a bust, but great at MK)
- VQs: got 7am for Tiana's and 1pm and 6pm for Tron, and also 7am and 6pm for Guardians
Overall a great trips - MK being open to 1am with extra hours took a bit out of us and still recovering lol
Overall crowds:
- felt more crowded than last year, pathways more full, etc
- noticed more non-English being spoken so maybe international travel is up some?
- noticed more "first visit" buttons
& For firework viewing front two all around the lagoon was taken for Luminous by 8:30. 3 rows deep by show time. For HEA, hub taped off areas full >60mins before showtime, and announced Main St was at capacity 30mins before (we otied to watch while riding the speedway)
Hotel:
- pool was packed midday, everyday - challenge to get a lounger. We were at Kidani so perhaps DVC people still using/renting while other hotels are slower
Rides:
- felt like the top tier /most popular wee about the same wait (posted and in Lines app) or a little lower than last year
- BUT the lower tier rides were much longer. Thinking this is LLMP spreading out crowds and people taking a LL for a 2nd tier ride when wouldn't bother with G+.
- example, never seen the physical line for Nemo out the building
Dining:
- quick service was very crowded despite full staffing (at least for taking orders, can't speak for the kitchen). Took 30mins consistently to get food
- BUT table service reservations were wide open - when looking for stuff, even like day of for Akershus, Be Our Guest, etc, wide open
LLMP/VQ:
- we got for MK and DHS and got great use out of it. I will likely put a post in the dedicated thread with details. One that seemed to go quick and never saw come back was Jingle Cruise
- didn't get for Epcot and somewhat regretting it as we didn't get on Frozen or Remy. Wait was always higher than kids willing to wait (and not just posted time, we checked the physical lines and how far they stretched). Even during DeluxeExtra Hours they were hour or more (side note, Deluxe Extra Hours at Epcot is kind of a bust, but great at MK)
- VQs: got 7am for Tiana's and 1pm and 6pm for Tron, and also 7am and 6pm for Guardians
Overall a great trips - MK being open to 1am with extra hours took a bit out of us and still recovering lol
Laketravis
Well-Known Member
Except for when park hopping was suspended.