Is attendance really down at WDW this or…

[peter11435]

At any point a position indicator is tripped by vehicle 1, the time the between the same indicator by vehicle #2 defines how many seats per minute at which the attraction is operating.

If not all seats are occupied, that is an operational protocol issue. Once wait time reaches 20 minutes, all seats should be occupied.

Time between vehicles is rarely constant and can vary wildly at some attractions. Attractions like POTC and FEA do not dispatch at constant intervals. Attractions like HM and SSE stop and slow at random times for random lengths to accommodate guests. Some attractions have numbers of vehicles that may fluctuate during operation.

Filling all seats is always a goal but for many attractions an operational impossibility. Largely dictated by party sizes.

Many of you want to ignore numerous operational variables that have huge impacts on attraction wait times. This isn’t roller coaster tycoon. These are real machines, operated by real people, carrying real guests. Guest gets sick in a guardians vehicle and boom, you’re suddenly operating at reduced capacity for a period of time.

And again that pesky problem of standby being the smallest source of attraction throughput.

 

[Disone]

They’re already discounting and their attendance went into the tank on their forecasts no LATER than 2022…

But yet…nothing…

I get the idea that the blessed fastpass from the crapper months in advance was great…

…but from a numbers point it did not work well…and now they charge for it. Deal breaker.

There will be some form of that coming…and nothing is “impossible”…but it’s gonna be paid.

Not likely to get you to book a room at port orleans. It’s more like you get it if you buy 150 dvc points don't know the specifics on 2022 but fiscal 2023 was largely a success for the Walt Disney World resorts. At over 9 million room nights at a Walt Disney World resort owned hotel room, (No swan no dolphin no hotel plaza, just Disney or DVC) WDW's annual occupancy for fiscal 2023 in its was around 90%. This is well above the US national average.

I can't speak specifically to 2022 but A source let me in on fiscal 2023 's annual occupancy.

In 2023 they claim they had over 9 million room nights on property in a Disney owned room. This is a 90% occupancy.

Ps I did want to check this math. So I went to touring plan site. seems as though Walt Disney World, including the campsites and the villas, has a bit over 28000 hotel rooms.

28000 room x 90% 25200 room per night

25200 rooms sold per day x 365 days = 9,198,000 room sold.

According to Google the national occupancy rate is about 66%, so. Even if you fudge this number a little bit. They are way above the national average.

I interested to see how soft 2024 is going to be in regards to number of rooms sell. 2023 benefited by still riding a wave of revenge travel while having the highest amount of rooms available post covid shut down.

The question is how much lower will 2024 be and will it trigger all sorts of fun discounts.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I can't speak specifically to 2022 but A source let me in on fiscal 2023 's annual occupancy.

In 2023 they claim they had over 9 million room nights on property in a Disney owned room. This is a 90% occupancy.

Ps I did want to check this math. So I went to touring plan site. seems as though Walt Disney World, including the campsites and the villas, has a bit over 28000 hotel rooms.

28000 room x 90% 25200 room per night

25200 rooms sold per day x 365 days = 9,198,000 room sold.

According to Google the national occupancy rate is about 66%, so. Even if you fudge this number a little bit. They are way above the national average.

I interested to see how soft 2024 is going to be in regards to number of rooms sell. 2023 benefited by still riding a wave of revenge travel while having the highest amount of rooms available post covid shut down.

The question is how much lower will 2024 be and will it trigger all sorts of fun discounts.

But when did people book those 2023 rooms? Was my point. The lead time is typically 12-18 months. Not all of them…but the bulk. So by 2022 they would have known attendance would be on the decline for 2023…

And it was. By their own admission in quarterlies.

And did you just compare Disney hotels to the rest of the country?

That’s not the standard. Those rooms must be occupied to feed their own internal profit engine. That’s why a dip is catastrophic

 

[JoeCamel]

Time between vehicles is rarely constant and can vary wildly at some attractions. Attractions like POTC and FEA do not dispatch at constant intervals. Attractions like HM and SSE stop and slow at random times for random lengths to accommodate guests. Some attractions have numbers of vehicles that may fluctuate during operation.

Filling all seats is always a goal but for many attractions an operational impossibility. Largely dictated by party sizes.

Many of you want to ignore numerous operational variables that have huge impacts on attraction wait times. This isn’t roller coaster tycoon. These are real machines, operated by real people, carrying real guests. Guest gets sick in a guardians vehicle and boom, you’re suddenly operating at reduced capacity for a period of time.

And again that pesky problem of standby being the smallest source of attraction throughput.

The one difference is they didn't charge for access in the past but now there is an incentive to overstate the waits no matter the cause, understanding why they do it is not the point it is that now they charge and still provide junk info for the "guest" to make a decision in a scenario where the only party providing info is also profiting by providing inflated info.
Too many first hand reports of long waits advertised while reality is reasonable waits. In the past we wrote it off to poor systems but now there is a cost/profit motive that wasn't there in the past.

 

[Nubs70]

Time between vehicles is rarely constant and can vary wildly at some attractions. Attractions like POTC and FEA do not dispatch at constant intervals. Attractions like HM and SSE stop and slow at random times for random lengths to accommodate guests. Some attractions have numbers of vehicles that may fluctuate during operation.

Filling all seats is always a goal but for many attractions an operational impossibility. Largely dictated by party sizes.

Many of you want to ignore numerous operational variables that have huge impacts on attraction wait times. This isn’t roller coaster tycoon. These are real machines, operated by real people, carrying real guests. Guest gets sick in a guardians vehicle and boom, you’re suddenly operating at reduced capacity for a period of time.

And again that pesky problem of standby being the smallest source of attraction throughput.

If someone pukes on a ride or a or a ride is operating at reduced capacity for whatever reason, the number of seats per unit time decreases (denominator decrease), the wait time will automatically increase.

If the queue increases during period of reduced thruput, the wait time.will increase at a greater rate as the numerator is increasing at the same time the denominator.is decreasing

 

[peter11435]

If someone pukes on a ride or a or a ride is operating at reduced capacity for whatever reason, the number of seats per unit time decreases (denominator decrease), the wait time will automatically increase.

If the queue increases during period of reduced thruput, the wait time.will increase at a greater rate as the numerator is increasing at the same time the denominator.is decreasing

Correct…..

 

[Lilofan]

I love it. Mainly cause how much I hate winter and the cold.

The price to pay to live in the Great White North but we love visiting ethnic foodie Toronto and Vancouver only in the summertime never in winter.

 

[HauntedPirate]

Drinking continually is good, high of 97 degrees tomorrow Sun and Mon in Orlando ,can't imagine how many daily 100 degrees high coming up this summer.

No more than normal, because 100F for a high is pretty rare for Orlando. Unless those pesky official weather records are wrong. But please continue to regale everyone with your weather knowledge and forecasting expertise.

 

[Epcot81Fan]

Time between vehicles is rarely constant and can vary wildly at some attractions. Attractions like POTC and FEA do not dispatch at constant intervals. Attractions like HM and SSE stop and slow at random times for random lengths to accommodate guests. Some attractions have numbers of vehicles that may fluctuate during operation.

Filling all seats is always a goal but for many attractions an operational impossibility. Largely dictated by party sizes.

Many of you want to ignore numerous operational variables that have huge impacts on attraction wait times. This isn’t roller coaster tycoon. These are real machines, operated by real people, carrying real guests. Guest gets sick in a guardians vehicle and boom, you’re suddenly operating at reduced capacity for a period of time.

And again that pesky problem of standby being the smallest source of attraction throughput.

Honest question - do you really believe you just said something that every person over the age of 5 does not already know?

 

[Lilofan]

No more than normal, because 100F for a high is pretty rare for Orlando. Unless those pesky official weather records are wrong. But please continue to regale everyone with your weather knowledge and forecasting expertise.

Fyi - With the heat index, was 105 for a week in July when we were there last year. Were you ?

 

[peter11435]

Honest question - do you really believe you just said something that every person over the age of 5 does not already know?

Based on posts in this thread, absolutely.

 

[CntrlFlPete]

I mean, I study these lines for a living. My default assumption is that they're wrong because there's no revenue for Disney to gain by increasing the accuracy of posted wait times.

I don't think the reason is "Guests are happy when a posted wait of X ends up being Y."

That policy prevents guests from exercising their own judgement to decide the best use of their time. It's an incredibly patronizing example of "we know what's best for you so don't ask questions."

Here's an example from Slinky Dog last week.

As the day drew to a close, Slinky Dog's posted wait was 70 minutes at 8:15 pm. It had been at 70 minutes for about half an hour.

Twenty-two minutes later we timed an actual wait of 13 minutes. And we got actuals of 10 and 14 in rapid succession within a few minutes of that.

It's almost impossible to get a 57-minute reduction in actual waits in just 22 minutes of clock time. I'm sure I could come up with a scenario where literally nobody got in line, wheelchairs caused an extended delay, extra trains were added to the track, etc. But that almost certainly didn't happen here, and I think we all know that.

View attachment 787542

To spell out the problem with "Posted of X ends up being Y", where Y < X, there are tons of people who would've got in a 10- to 20-minute line at Slinky, if they had been given accurate information about their wait. But they skipped riding because they didn't think it was worth 70 minutes. So they missed out on an enjoyable experience because of bad information.

Sorry for the long post. What do you think the reason is?

appreciate the info. One thing I wonder about though is that the example is at the end of the day. I feel like (even in days long before fast pass 1.0) that the last two hours of the day always had exaggerated wait time on attractions such as Space Mountain.

Just wondering if these extreme examples are always towards the end of the day w/ afternoon wait times being more in line?

If I am reading this example correctly, it seems the worst Disney estimates happen in the first and last hour of the day. Just wondering if it is more predictable to say the extremes happen early/late each day?

 

[Jrb1979]

The price to pay to live in the Great White North but we love visiting ethnic foodie Toronto and Vancouver only in the summertime never in winter.

Where I live the winter is similar to Pittsburgh. It has nothing to do with being in a cold climate. I prefer heat over cold.

 

[lentesta]

appreciate the info. One thing I wonder about though is that the example is at the end of the day. I feel like (even in days long before fast pass 1.0) that the last two hours of the day always had exaggerated wait time on attractions such as Space Mountain.

Just wondering if these extreme examples are always towards the end of the day w/ afternoon wait times being more in line?

If I am reading this example correctly, it seems the worst Disney estimates happen in the first and last hour of the day. Just wondering if it is more predictable to say the extremes happen early/late each day?

If I had to guess, I'd agree that waits are more inflated in the first and last hour of the day.

Let me check (as an example) noon to 2 pm at key attractions to see what's going on. I'm traveling today (AWAY FROM THIS CURSED HUMIDITY), and will get to it this week.

 

[Lilofan]

Where I live the winter is similar to Pittsburgh. It has nothing to do with being in a cold climate. I prefer heat over cold.

Nothing to do being a cold climate but stating hate the cold in another previous post ?

 

[CntrlFlPete]

Wait times are a function of:
1. The number of people in the queue.
2. Seats per minute thruput.

If there are 100 people in line with the equivalent of 2 seats per minute dispatched, wait time is 50 minutes.

If a Brazilian tour group crashes the line and the queue rises to 180 people, the wait time grows to 90 minutes. Time to add more another vehicle to increase seats and lower wait time.

OR

Sell 80 LL passes.

Basic mass balance.

the problem I still see, even with this is that during that 50 minuets, the LL varies between 0 people and 50 people at any given moment. Things move for around 10 min, then a couple of families join in via LL -- sometimes the LL fills up -- so standby seems vary based on how often the standby queue needs to yield to the LL.

 

[Nubs70]

the problem I still see, even with this is that during that 50 minuets, the LL varies between 0 people and 50 people at any given moment. Things move for around 10 min, then a couple of families join in via LL -- sometimes the LL fills up -- so standby seems vary based on how often the standby queue needs to yield to the LL.

Advertised wait times are for traditional the standby queue..

As LL queue ebbs and flows, the standby wait times will ebb and flow but be more precise and accurate than current method. This will allow guests a more informed decision when contemplating LL purchase.

 

[CntrlFlPete]

Time between vehicles is rarely constant and can vary wildly at some attractions. Attractions like POTC and FEA do not dispatch at constant intervals. Attractions like HM and SSE stop and slow at random times for random lengths to accommodate guests. Some attractions have numbers of vehicles that may fluctuate during operation.

Filling all seats is always a goal but for many attractions an operational impossibility. Largely dictated by party sizes.

Many of you want to ignore numerous operational variables that have huge impacts on attraction wait times. This isn’t roller coaster tycoon. These are real machines, operated by real people, carrying real guests. Guest gets sick in a guardians vehicle and boom, you’re suddenly operating at reduced capacity for a period of time.

And again that pesky problem of standby being the smallest source of attraction throughput.

I guess from my view, well data groups today use predictive analytics to understand the general stats as a way to factor these things in.

But that is the perfect world and as @lentesta suggested, Disney really feels they have no financial interest is pouring money in t 'fix' the issue.

As an outside observer, I can see how Disney has tried in the past. Magic Bands were the answer that management banked on (NFC proved too difficult to measure wait times I assume). To me, it seems the only idea they really kept was that they finally get the data they wanted w/ FP+ via dated tickets and theme park reservations from those attempts.

Even look at HM, I recall when things seemed to work as you mentioned, but these days, it seems the ride always stops at one point on the loop to allow certain cars to load while the ride is paused -- it seems it is a given the ride will stop once on your ride, but it seems to have removed much of the slowing of the belt.

 

[peter11435]

.

As an outside observer, I can see how Disney has tried in the past. Magic Bands were the answer that management banked on (NFC proved too difficult to measure wait times I assume).

Magic bands are still used to track wait time data.

 

[mysto]

appreciate the info. One thing I wonder about though is that the example is at the end of the day. I feel like (even in days long before fast pass 1.0) that the last two hours of the day always had exaggerated wait time on attractions such as Space Mountain.

I always figured wait times at the end of the day were intentionally inflated. The kids running the ride want to go home so they discourage new riders by posting a long wait time. Running a ride for an hour or two after close has to be depressing when you're so close to that end of shift beer.

I agree with the other posters that there's a financial incentive to overstate in general, and that Disney seems to sometimes take advantage, but the EOD phenomenon predates g+.