Is attendance really down at WDW this or…

[JD80]

Removal of magical express, diminishing quality in places (food, ride maintenance, etc), G+ LL, ILL, Virtual Queues all making a day at Disney a lottery game on your phone vs a stress free vacation, some unpopular decisions being made in the parks or within the company as a whole, etc etc

For anything to have a non marginal impact on whether or not a family is going to book a WDW trip, Magical Express isn't going to prevent them from going on it's own.

Now if you want to add that to the cumulative effect of people not finding value staying on property? Absolutely, that's a part of it. I'd stick that under cost on my list. However, that may drive hotel occupancy down but not necessarily park attendance since it may drive people to staying off property but still going.

If we see trends in overall Universal attendance across their soon to be 3 parks over years, then it's something you can measure as a trend. To truly measure the impact of these things (which I believe we're seeing the start of it) you have to measure occupancy across a longer period of time that would see a family coming back for a next trip after experiencing these losses. I hope that is clear.

As far as all the difficulty of going to the parks, that's always been a thing. It's definitely increased though which is why you are seeing changes. We'll see what happens over the next year or two.

As far as unpopular decisions made in the parks? That's a Disney Fandom thing. I think any effect on park attendance would be marginal at best, same with "decisions being made .. within the company as a whole". These two things I would put in F Tier.

 

[JD80]

30-50% lower at the same crowd levels or compared to spring when the parks were more crowded?

Tricky question because that depends if higher crowd levels or perceived crowd levels drive the purchase of LLMP. More LLMP purchases put more people in LLs.

Also with being able to hold 3 LL at any time and choosing your time, that also may impact how people tour parks, how fast they may tour parks and what times of the day. I really can't wait to see how the new system impacts crowd flow in the parks.

 

[CAV]

Removal of magical express, diminishing quality in places (food, ride maintenance, etc), G+ LL, ILL, Virtual Queues all making a day at Disney a lottery game on your phone vs a stress free vacation, some unpopular decisions being made in the parks or within the company as a whole, etc etc

Their priority went from making magic to making money. And, it shows.

 

[CAV]

For me, the product is not overpriced -
It’s the loss of value.

what? What does that even mean?

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

what? What does that even mean?

The value isn’t the same as it used to be - less shows and live entertainment, shorter park hours, shorter attraction hours during park hours, VQ decreases the value for me since I don’t know if I’m able to get on certain attractions.

Disneyland still provides that value for me - WDW not so much. I still visit couple times a year but mostly resort hop and get a 1 day ticket to a park just to see what’s new or see the Art Festival at Epcot - which is worth the $$$ for money.

 

[bwr827]

what? What does that even mean?

It’s really just the other side of the same coin.

If they cut prices by 25% across the board, the value immediately goes up — although not necessarily by the exact amount.

 

[bwr827]

Their priority went from making magic to making money. And, it shows.

That priority was always there. It’s just a long, slow grind to find increasing efficiencies (and periodic investments) to increase year-over-year earnings.

Example: merch was reportedly full of variety for decades. A point of pride. And good revenue.

Then, having exhausted other efficiency options, the eye of Sauron turns to merch and says, “We could save a bundle here by rationalizing and streamlining our product shelf. Economies of scale will allow us to reduce unit costs by XX% over the next 5 years.”

 

[John park hopper]

Their priority went from making magic to making money. And, it shows.

They passed the buck on making magic by telling guests you are the magic----the only magic is the guests are a magic cash machine for Disney

 

[C33Mom]

The value isn’t the same as it used to be - less shows and live entertainment, shorter park hours, shorter attraction hours during park hours, VQ decreases the value for me since I don’t know if I’m able to get on certain attractions.

Disneyland still provides that value for me - WDW not so much. I still visit couple times a year but mostly resort hop and get a 1 day ticket to a park just to see what’s new or see the Art Festival at Epcot - which is worth the $$$ for money.

Two areas we see “reduced value” (on both coasts) is frequent ride breakdowns and long LL return lines. It sounds like Disney is successfully getting its arms around the second problem but I’m not hearing about any improvements in ride reliability yet. I would also say that having to wake at 7AM to get VQ and SDD were value reductions, as well as only being able to ride each attraction once with G+… Disney has changed up G+ to a new paid system, but I’m not sure it will be actually add value (relative to G+) for most guests who want to pay to avoid long waits and it appears that we’ll still need to wake early for morning VQs.

 

[Lilofan]

Thet passed the buck on making magic by telling guests you are the magic----the only magic is the guests are a magic cash machine for Disney

That's stating the obvious. Big and small business rely on guests to be their cash machine to ensure continued operation/ profitability .

 

[mysto]

The value isn’t the same as it used to be - less shows and live entertainment, shorter park hours, shorter attraction hours during park hours, VQ decreases the value for me since I don’t know if I’m able to get on certain attractions.

I agree, but add that the recent increased standby capacity Len notes is a tiny nudge towards value for this park fan.

Two areas we see “reduced value” (on both coasts) is frequent ride breakdowns and long LL return lines.

Breakdowns really need improvement (as in fewer of them). As a planner "ride down" is one of the most stressful unhappy things that happens, second to line cutters.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

Tricky question because that depends

It’s not a tricky question - it’s a simple question.

For example - yesterday compared to a year ago (using Saturday July 15, 2023 so it’s the same day of the week)
Average waits
7 dwarves - 71 vs. 50
space mountain - 48 vs. 39
haunted mansion - 36 vs. 28
big thunder was the same at 32

So there is a difference - but nothing drastic - 7 dwarves being the exception. But even that is not the 50% that was claimed.

 

[lentesta]

For me, the product is not overpriced -
It’s the loss of value.

30-50% lower at the same crowd levels or compared to spring when the parks were more crowded?

The ratio of guests in the LL compared to the standby line is 30-50% lower, at least.

So pre-DAS (as an example) you'd expect to see a ride allocate anywhere from 4 to 16 seats for LL guests for every 10 standby guests, and maybe average 8.

So 8/18ths, or roughly 44% of the ride capacity was taken by LL.

It's like 21% now at Haunted Mansion when we're counting.

 

[bwr827]

It’s not a tricky question - it’s a simple question.

For example - yesterday compared to a year ago (using Saturday July 15, 2023 so it’s the same day of the week)
Average waits
7 dwarves - 71 vs. 50
space mountain - 48 vs. 39
haunted mansion - 36 vs. 28
big thunder was the same at 32

So there is a difference - but nothing drastic - 7 dwarves being the exception. But even that is not the 50% that was claimed.

I’ll get in line for Dwarves at 50 minutes, but I’ll pass at 60+.

If the reductions are sustainable, this helps the value.

Need other value measures too, though.

 

[CntrlFlPete]

So if we are seeing a LL reduction and standby getting more capacity that in turn reduces the standby wait times correct?

If that is the case, is comparing wait times of today vs. any other time previous to the DAS change irrelevant?

Bonus consideration question: How does the DAS change effect crowd calendar calculations?

one thing I can comment on is that when we went when they had finished FP+ and had not yet started LL/ILL, the queues moved. Personally, I do not mind waiting in line when the line doesn't keep stopping for 3 - 5 minutes after each movement in standby. I assume they had some form of DAS at the time, so to me, it was not bad if the fast lanes were only 20-30% (all GAC/DAS/whatever initials at the time) -- now with the DAS reduction, it sounds like (if they don't sell a lot of LL, we could see days where the fast line is only taking up 20 - 30%, I feel like everyone wins.

 

[bwr827]

one thing I can comment on is that when we went when they had finished FP+ and had not yet started LL/ILL, the queues moved. Personally, I do not mind waiting in line when the line doesn't keep stopping for 3 - 5 minutes after each movement in standby.

Great point. It makes such a difference if you feel steadier progress in line.

 

[bpiper]

The ratio of guests in the LL compared to the standby line is 30-50% lower, at least.

So pre-DAS (as an example) you'd expect to see a ride allocate anywhere from 4 to 16 seats for LL guests for every 10 standby guests, and maybe average 8.

So 8/18ths, or roughly 44% of the ride capacity was taken by LL.

It's like 21% now at Haunted Mansion when we're counting.

That's really great to hear for our upcoming trip.

But....

Is it all DAS or is it people finally hitting their breaking point on paying for these up charges and deciding that they can't afford it....

Probably some combination. Win-win.... Cuts down on LL fraud and kicks Disney in the $$$ end.

I know that we have drastically cut back table service restaurants and have moved to Quick Serve. On days we aren't in the parks, we go off property for meals. Table service for Quick serve prices.. Better quality food too.

 

[CAV]

That priority was always there. It’s just a long, slow grind to find increasing efficiencies (and periodic investments) to increase year-over-year earnings.

Example: merch was reportedly full of variety for decades. A point of pride. And good revenue.

Then, having exhausted other efficiency options, the eye of Sauron turns to merch and says, “We could save a bundle here by rationalizing and streamlining our product shelf. Economies of scale will allow us to reduce unit costs by XX% over the next 5 years.”

I disagree. They made magic understanding that would make money. Now they make money without regards to making magic.

 

[lentesta]

That's really great to hear for our upcoming trip.

But....

Is it all DAS or is it people finally hitting their breaking point on paying for these up charges and deciding that they can't afford it....

Probably some combination. Win-win.... Cuts down on LL fraud and kicks Disney in the $$$ end.

I know that we have drastically cut back table service restaurants and have moved to Quick Serve. On days we aren't in the parks, we go off property for meals. Table service for Quick serve prices.. Better quality food too.

My guess is that these are contributing factors to table-service dining volumes being down:

• Genie+ and ILL rides are a higher priority. Given the tight return time windows for those, people are reluctant to book a specific dining time that might, weeks later, conflict with their one chance to ride TRON (as an example).
• Cost. It's hard to accept that 2 adults and 2 kids is committed to a minimum spend of $280 as soon as they sit down at Be Our Guest. And it's entirely possible that families have hit their spending limits, so any money spent on G+/ILL is just coming from sit-down dining.

We'll know how much of a factor that first thing is, around the end of August, when everyone's had a chance to make advance LLMPs and ADRs.

As an example of the 'cost' argument, here's the rolling 6-month guest satisfaction numbers for Be Our Guest and from Skipper Canteen, through the end of last year. The red dot on BOG is when they switched to a fixed-price menu. (Blank areas are the pandemic or when we didn't have enough surveys to process.)

So Skipper Canteen's doing well from a survey perspective. Be Our Guest is not.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

Even in Fantasyland Be Our Guest is not worth $70 + tax and tip. Things like that just make me mad and should put shame on Jeff, Josh, and Bob.