Is attendance really down at WDW this or…

[lentesta]

What confuses me in this topic is I believe @lentesta says wait time are mostly accurate, but everyone who is posting here from the parks says otherwise. ( As has been my personal experience )

I’m tagging lentesta because I can be completely wrong, and don’t want to put words in his mouth.

Ah, thanks for the tag.

I don't think wait times are particularly accurate - you can't predict actual waits from them, for example, with anything close to the level of accuracy you'd need to believe them.

The problem is this: for every accurate posted wait time, and every posted wait time that's, you know, a fixed 125% of the actual wait, you get a posted wait that's 100% higher than the actual wait. For the same attraction on the same day.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Ah, thanks for the tag.

I don't think wait times are particularly accurate - you can't predict actual waits from them, for example, with anything close to the level of accuracy you'd need to believe them.

The problem is this: for every accurate posted wait time, and every posted wait time that's, you know, a fixed 125% of the actual wait, you get a posted wait that's 100% higher than the actual wait. For the same attraction on the same day.

How are the wait times fed/posted now?

Is it still measured at the location or fed from the central computer programming?

 

[Touchdown]

Ah, thanks for the tag.

I don't think wait times are particularly accurate - you can't predict actual waits from them, for example, with anything close to the level of accuracy you'd need to believe them.

The problem is this: for every accurate posted wait time, and every posted wait time that's, you know, a fixed 125% of the actual wait, you get a posted wait that's 100% higher than the actual wait. For the same attraction on the same day.

It’s been especially frustrating as of late that even us veterans couldn’t predict wait times by eyeballing the line. I’m hoping that with the DAS changes the LL stabilizes such that we can predict wait times again.

 

[Lilofan]

forgot to add -- CM's are blocked out of MK.

It's Friday, the holiday weekend starts tomorrow.

Everyone is at Springs for the drone show.

One of the free things to do. Free drone show and free parking. Then some standing in line for more than an hour to eat an average tasting $6 cookie at Gideons Bakeshop.

 

[lentesta]

How are the wait times fed/posted now?

Is it still measured at the location or fed from the central computer programming?

I believe it's CMs eyeballing the line.

 

[peter11435]

I believe it's CMs eyeballing the line.

Not exactly

 

[SamusAranX]

85% used to be defcon 2 level catastrophic

Clearly you’re not as bright as WDW leadership. They can just increase the rate per room to compensate for less people staying. It’s simple, sustainable and magical!

 

[SamusAranX]

All they have to do is give free FP+ or now ILL's and those rooms will be booked, even at higher prices..plenty of people would gladly pay more to stay on property if they were guaranteed rides each day

This would stress an already stressed capacity game of musical chairs. They crossed the rubicon, they can’t go back now.

 

[lentesta]

Not exactly

I could be wrong. What is it?

 

[Ayla]

All they have to do is give free FP+ or now ILL's and those rooms will be booked, even at higher prices..plenty of people would gladly pay more to stay on property if they were guaranteed rides each day

There is no way WDW can do this. There is no where near enough capacity to give free Genie+ or ILL to all those deluxe rooms.

 

[Disstevefan1]

I just not get how anyone can say they can judge the wait time by looking at the queue length, no clue how Disney would be able to teach folks to get it correct. I say this for I do not know how one knows the queue configuration, number of switchbacks open, cemetery by pass open or closed at the HM. Sure Disney would know this, but could they train folks to know different markers based on floor space being used for the queue?




I think there is a LOT you are leaving in your evaluation.

IT was mentioned as well as GENI + sales. The data folks would have designed algorithms to estimate wait times. Those equation MIGHT assume a certain amount of LL usage w/o updating based on attendance, usage of time slots open/close to expiring and/or actual GENI+ sales. Let's say 10 minutes here/this is where I feel one can luck out against the posted time if LL use is lightly than predicated

There is a possibility that the consultants told them they could increase customer SAT scores by padding the time a bit and beating the expectation they offered you. I could see this being 5 to 10 minutes.

I know nothing about how Disney does things.

I guess it would fall as broken, but really it is how it is designed regardless of how one looks at it. My guess is their big data folks are not as able to wrangle the proper data points they need or they are not giving the budget/time to deliver the correct code/formulas/properly used statistics.

I get it, there are too many variables to correctly calculate wait times. The very bad thing is, Disney posts these wrong numbers and folks are making decisions based on them.

Ok, so the numbers are wrong for whatever reason. I have no data maybe @lentesta does, but can we assume the actual wait time is usually shorter than the posted wait time?

That historically has been my personal non scientific experience.

A happy “side effect” of this is that it may sell more Genie+ for Disney eve though that was NOT the intention at all

 

[Drdcm]

I get it, there are too many variables to correctly calculate wait times. The very bad thing is, Disney posts these wrong numbers and folks are making decisions based on them.

Ok, so the numbers are wrong for whatever reason. I have no data maybe @lentesta does, but can we assume the actual wait time is usually shorter than the posted wait time?

That historically has been my personal non scientific experience.

A happy “side effect” of this is that it may sell more Genie+ for Disney eve though that was NOT the intention at all

Honestly, I always assumed they overestimated so people don’t freak out when it takes longer. That seemed to happen even before G+. I really think there would have been a leak by now if someone was directed to fake wait times

 

[James Alucobond]

The very bad thing is, Disney posts these wrong numbers and folks are making decisions based on them.

They are clearly attempting to right the ship on accuracy by limiting unknowable factors. But the alternative at the moment is just that everyone stands in the line blind, which is exponentially worse than something being wrong by plus or minus 20 minutes.

 

[Poseidon Quest]

Honestly, I always assumed they overestimated so people don’t freak out when it takes longer. That seemed to happen even before G+. I really think there would have been a leak by now if someone was directed to fake wait times

I think that Genie+ drops just make the waits unpredictable. I went into Dinosaur yesterday and it was posted at a 35, but only waited around 10. It would have been 5 if a wave of LL hadn't showed up all at once. Not that I'm complaining about a short wait, but I see how Genie+ creates a lot of uncertainly with its hour return window as opposed to the 15 minute window of Fastpass+

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I believe it's CMs eyeballing the line.

That would be very inefficient and would account for alot of the inaccuracy

Not exactly

Great info

 

[Lilofan]

Clearly you’re not as bright as WDW leadership. They can just increase the rate per room to compensate for less people staying. It’s simple, sustainable and magical!

I doubt that's what taught at Rollins or UCF MBA classes.

 

[peter11435]

Great info

More accurate than any of yours…

 

[Trauma]

More accurate than any of yours…

It’s a holiday weekend. Can’t we get along!

 

[Disstevefan1]

They are clearly attempting to right the ship on accuracy by limiting unknowable factors. But the alternative at the moment is just that everyone stands in the line blind, which is exponentially worse than something being wrong by plus or minus 20 minutes.

Posted waits do seem to be wrong mostly plus and not minus which I am sure is not intentionally at all but does accidentally serve to make the guest feel better as they waited less time in line and also the unintended, accidental, coincidental side effect to possibly entice guests to buy Genie+

 

[peter11435]

Posted waits do seem to be wrong mostly plus and not minus which I am sure is not intentionally at all but does accidentally serve to make the guest feel better as they waited less time in line and also the unintended, accidental, coincidental side effect to possibly entice guests to buy Genie+

If you think about it with a little less cynicism you should be able to understand why they are more likely to be over inflated than under inflated.