Is attendance really down at WDW this or…

[Nevermore525]

Just comparing off the company’s reported data of FY19 (last full pre-Covid year and furthest back SEC data I could pull quarterly data) vs current FY:

Through 6 months of FY19 the domestic hotels had 4,626,750 cash booked room nights.

Through the first 6 months of the current FY it’s 4,459,950 cash booked room nights.

So less than 4% drop off in room nights paid for by cash bookings through the current reporting period.

Resorts and Vacations Revenue (which does include DCL) over those periods were $3.032B in FY19 and $4.219B in the current FY.

1 new ship, a 4% reduction in domestic hotel cash bookings and rate increases to get 39% more revenue out of resorts and vacations.

 

[Tha Realest]

If they can convert some people/families from going once a year to once every three or five years, they will be far better off.

Maybe. But it increasingly looks like those “some families” went in 2021 and 2022, started staying home in 2023, and have no plans to go in 2024 and 2025.

 

[PREMiERdrum]

And Disney parks were cheap and easily accessible for a long time. That's why MK went from 10M a year to 20M a year. THAT was unsustainable for a number of reasons.

They're price correcting right now. They're making the parks generally more expensive and harder to access because cramming more and more people down Main Street is not the answer.

If they can convert some people/families from going once a year to once every three or five years, they will be far better off.

Sure.

Unfortunately, they began aligning access prices to demand immediately after gutting most of their onsite benefits. They're ruining their hotel business. I've sold Disney vacations for more than a decade, and they're chasing off the clientbase they should be pandering to. The more your core adjusts to traveling outside the bubble, the harder it will be to get them back.

 

[Fido Chuckwagon]

Basically Riviera, right?

Seriously though, CB is the only Moderate they don't have any trouble booking currently.

Because the skyliner is awesome and the buses suck. If they want their other moderates to do better they need to expand the skyliner.

 

[PREMiERdrum]

Because the skyliner is awesome and the buses suck. If they want their other moderates to do better they need to expand the skyliner.

I don't foresee any SL expansion (though some interesting routes were discussed), but they'll have to diversify resort transportation offerings before too awful long.

 

[Nevermore525]

Maybe. But it increasingly looks like those “some families” went in 2021 and 2022, started staying home in 2023, and have no plans to go in 2024 and 2025.

Just to share Disney’s reported Domestic cash room nights booked by Calendar year:

2021: 5,866,700
2022: 8,259,860
2023: 8,528,950
2024: 2,295,000 (currently 2% ahead of the bookings of 2023 through only 1 quarter of data reported)

 

[networkpro]

Just comparing off the company’s reported data of FY19 (last full pre-Covid year and furthest back SEC data I could pull quarterly data) vs current FY:

Through 6 months of FY19 the domestic hotels had 4,626,750 cash booked room nights.

Through the first 6 months of the current FY it’s 4,459,950 cash booked room nights.

So less than 4% drop off in room nights paid for by cash bookings through the current reporting period.

Resorts and Vacations Revenue (which does include DCL) over those periods were $3.032B in FY19 and $4.219B in the current FY.

1 new ship, a 4% reduction in domestic hotel cash bookings and rate increases to get 39% more revenue out of resorts and vacations.

While the rise in revenue is significant, dont forget to factor in the purchasing price of those 2019 dollars is about 20% greater than today thanks to the increase in the money supply.

 

[el_super]

Maybe. But it increasingly looks like those “some families” went in 2021 and 2022, started staying home in 2023, and have no plans to go in 2024 and 2025.

And they will be back in a few years. If the pandemic proved anything, absence makes the heart grow fonder.

 

[wannabeBelle]

Sure.

Unfortunately, they began aligning access prices to demand immediately after gutting most of their onsite benefits. They're ruining their hotel business. I've sold Disney vacations for more than a decade, and they're chasing off the clientbase they should be pandering to. The more your core adjusts to traveling outside the bubble, the harder it will be to get them back.

I have been saying that last line an awful lot lately!!! Marie

 

[Lilofan]

The issue happened when lots of middle class people flourished with exploding home values, low interest rates, and lots of access to credit. Disney saw a trend, reacted accordingly, and foolishly thought it would last forever.

The plaid vest tours on a 24.99% credit card are emblematic... and yes, it happened.

Children may follow parents poor financial behavior and lifestyle and the cycle repeats - Slaves to Debt society and mindset.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Interesting how Disney always caps discounts at 30-35%

There's a fine phycological barrier when advertising as a business between looking like you're offering a deal vs looking desperate. There may not be a huge difference between say 35% and 50%, but 50% off screams "we can't fill rooms".

 

[Jrb1979]

And they will be back in a few years. If the pandemic proved anything, absence makes the heart grow fonder.

For some maybe but many have moved on and found replacements.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I see we’ve entered the “below the bell curve” portion of the discussion?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Interesting how Disney always caps discounts at 30-35%

There's a fine phycological barrier when advertising as a business between looking like you're offering a deal vs looking desperate. There may not be a huge difference between say 35% and 50%, but 50% off screams "we can't fill rooms".

Funny you say that…

Because the 30% - after 12 years of relentless price increases across the board and above the curve - isn’t cutting it.

Which is why they never should have pushed it that far.

 

[DisneyHead123]

They're price correcting right now. They're making the parks generally more expensive and harder to access because cramming more and more people down Main Street is not the answer.

If they can convert some people/families from going once a year to once every three or five years, they will be far better off.

I don’t know that they want people to limit their visits so much as they want to spread out crowds with things like the “no MK” 3 park ticket special and cruise offerings. I wouldn’t be surprised if we started to see more resort-specific offerings over the next decade as well, to encourage resort only stays.

 

[el_super]

For some maybe but many have moved on and found replacements.

That's great.

 

[davis_unoxx]

Disney’s reputation at least on social media is going down too, people say what they building in Tokyo vs here is more reskinned attractions… Reputation is going down.

 

[GhostHost1000]

No you've missed the bigger point: the middle class will (generally) keep growing and expanding to the point that the parks can only serve a smaller and smaller percentage of it. At that point it becomes more and more of a luxury.

Luxury in price but not experience?

 

[GhostHost1000]

And Disney parks were cheap and easily accessible for a long time. That's why MK went from 10M a year to 20M a year. THAT was unsustainable for a number of reasons.

They're price correcting right now. They're making the parks generally more expensive and harder to access because cramming more and more people down Main Street is not the answer.

If they can convert some people/families from going once a year to once every three or five years, they will be far better off.

They are not price correcting. It’s because they have backed themselves into a corner because of mismanagement not expanding the parks and capacity therefore having to raise prices this high to both reduce guests but also retain spending numbers…but that’s not long term sustainable and forecasts are showing that.

They also wouldn’t have to cram more and more people down Main Street if they had more places for them and more offerings and attractions to go to in every park

 

[GhostHost1000]

And they will be back in a few years. If the pandemic proved anything, absence makes the heart grow fonder.

Actually, many that returned post Covid have felt and seen many changes at the parks and resorts in addition to all the price hikes (with less offerings) and have decided they are done.

There have been record numbers of DVC resales as well and that is some of your most loyal fanbase. If they are selling their contracts, they aren’t coming back.