Is attendance really down at WDW this or…

[Marionnette]

We were discussing this the other day - could you do a trip of just after hours/parties and not go for a regular park day on a trip. At least now that means never doing Animal Kingdom, but outside of that, especially during the summer heat, not a bad way to go

and this is projecting out a bit, but once Epic Universe opens I could see doing a drip mostly around Universal and then adding in an After Hours or party night at Disney just to get a bit of the Disney feels

This is exactly what we are considering in order to use up some DVC points next August. We'll do the Moonlight Magic at HS, the MNSSHP at MK and burn a couple of 1-day tickets (that I've had from when you could get *free* dining by buying just a single day ticket) so that we can do Food & Wine. Then it's off to Universal for a couple of days.

 

[Lirael]

and this is projecting out a bit, but once Epic Universe opens I could see doing a drip mostly around Universal and then adding in an After Hours or party night at Disney just to get a bit of the Disney feels

This. I've seen people thinking EU wont be a threat to wdw because "it'll bring more people to orlando, and they'll still check out disney". But at the end of the day, people have limits to how much they can spend and how many vacation days they can take. And theyll obviously prioritize the huge brand new park. As will I. And if that means decreasing days or time at disney for the trip, then so be it.

 

[el_super]

And if that means decreasing days or time at disney for the trip, then so be it.

That's part of the problem of the math around Epic Universe or expansion in Orlando in general - assuming that they've already hit the cap of vacation days/consumers willing to spend in the region and nothing is really gained from expansion.

If Epic Universe does draw more people to the area than were visiting before how could they not visit Disney as well? Does that mean higher attendance at MK and DHS?

If they don't draw in more people, will existing Disney visitors drop days at AK and Epcot to go to Epic Universe? Or will they drop days at Uni or IOA instead? How much of the existing Universal attendance will get cannibalized by the new park?

There are a lot of different scenarios here and there won't really be a clear picture until 2025.

 

[jpeden]

That's part of the problem of the math around Epic Universe or expansion in Orlando in general - assuming that they've already hit the cap of vacation days/consumers willing to spend in the region and nothing is really gained from expansion.

If Epic Universe does draw more people to the area than were visiting before how could they not visit Disney as well? Does that mean higher attendance at MK and DHS?

If they don't draw in more people, will existing Disney visitors drop days at AK and Epcot to go to Epic Universe? Or will they drop days at Uni or IOA instead? How much of the existing Universal attendance will get cannibalized by the new park?

There are a lot of different scenarios here and there won't really be a clear picture until 2025.

I think you'll see days dropped at HS, EPCOT, and AK - people will always flock to MK because it's MK. I do think the hardcore Universal folks will go to all three parks, mainly because they were smart enough to spread Potter out over all three, meaning you can't get the full experience unless you visit each park.

 

[LSLS]

That's part of the problem of the math around Epic Universe or expansion in Orlando in general - assuming that they've already hit the cap of vacation days/consumers willing to spend in the region and nothing is really gained from expansion.

If Epic Universe does draw more people to the area than were visiting before how could they not visit Disney as well? Does that mean higher attendance at MK and DHS?

If they don't draw in more people, will existing Disney visitors drop days at AK and Epcot to go to Epic Universe? Or will they drop days at Uni or IOA instead? How much of the existing Universal attendance will get cannibalized by the new park?

There are a lot of different scenarios here and there won't really be a clear picture until 2025.

So, I could see Disney getting a very, very small bump in attendance if Epic does draw in more people to the area, but I'm not sure it will translate to any sort of attendance figures (i.e, too small to show a difference). I would think the people who come down for Epic that normally wouldn't come to Orlando are by and large not going to be crowds with younger family members. I'd think those families would be going to Disney already. The new Orlando crowd could be a lot more of the 8+ year olds who like larger attractions along with the game nerds who can't wait for Nintendo (yes, that would be me). I would not be surprised at all if the increased Orlando visitation mainly adds attendance to something like Sea World as opposed to Disney.

But I agree with you, it's fascinating the number of scenarios that could play out in terms of how Epic changes the Orlando tourism landscape.

 

[Touchdown]

3 parks is a big deal, it changes a half week stay into a full week. 2 days at each park is 6 days, and Universal parks are 2 day parks if you want to do everything without express. Plus you have the waterpark, and the escape rooms/mini golf. Universal becomes a viable full week attraction in 2025, Disney has never faced competition like that, ever. It’s a big deal.

 

[celluloid]

The more hotel rooms alone changes guest spending patterns a lot, with more nights to stay near Universal than ever.

MK will often have the "halo" effect where it is the park people think of with WDW and will visit if they get a day away.

But the transit and Resort Expansion design is going to change all of that quite a bit. Every meal, every hotel night, every gift shop spend is a big loss to the time guests may visit to WDW.

I have heard from my sources that the talent pool for WDW operations is a real concern. Consolidation will happen as EPIC Universe nears as Disney has projected this since the development was underway.

Universal is opening more than just another theme park with this.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

I would not be surprised at all if the increased Orlando visitation mainly adds attendance to something like Sea World as opposed to Disney.

Right now, SeaWorld and Bush Gardens offer free shuttle service to and from their parks from the CityWalk bus loop.

If that program continues after Epic is open, it's even less of an incentive to go to Disney where you'd have to pay for a cab/uber or rental car + parking to visit.

Plus other attractions like Icon Park are a lot closer too.

Magic Kingdom will still be a huge draw. Maybe DHS because of Star Wars. But Animal Kingdom? EPCOT? not so much.

 

[el_super]

I do think the hardcore Universal folks will go to all three parks, mainly because they were smart enough to spread Potter out over all three, meaning you can't get the full experience unless you visit each park.

What percentage of their current audience would be classified as 'hardcore' Universal fans?

The Harry Potter thing is a little weird to me, because I generally don't see the audience on Harry Potter growing much more past the current base (with the movies fizzling out). And with the old audience, they will have already seen the attractions in the other two parks by the time the third opens. I suppose the third could generate some renewed interest in the other two attractions.

I would think the people who come down for Epic that normally wouldn't come to Orlando are by and large not going to be crowds with younger family members. I'd think those families would be going to Disney already.

I agree and this is the real question, whether the demographics between Disney and Universal are disparate enough that success or failure at one doesn't really impact the other. Hence the concern that the people most likely to go to Epic Universe are the ones already going to a Universal park to begin with.

There is, to be sure, a segment of the audience that would be classified as more general theme park fans that might switch spending from Disney to Universal, but I think they are generally a small group. At least where non-locals are concerned.

For locals it's a slightly different question that relies more on pricing. If Universal stays intent on keeping pricing low to encourage more local visitors, you could see a shift in local visitors prioritizing Epic Universe over WDW. Generally though, I'm thinking of the people who make 10+ trips to theme parks a year, shifting more to Universal. If Universal ends up wanting to chase more revenue though (to pay for the new park) that might not be where they want to go. They could end up in the same place as Disney, thinking the locals are just unfavorable.

 

[el_super]

Universal becomes a viable full week attraction in 2025, Disney has never faced competition like that, ever. It’s a big deal.

I'm skeptical. People were saying the same things about IOA opening in the nineties.

How do you figure that people have been going to the Universal parks for half a week for at least 20 years now, and WDW attendance basically doubled in that time?

Do you think there is a large contingent of potential Orlando visitors who said "two parks aren't worth my time, but three? sign me up!"

 

[LSLS]

What percentage of their current audience would be classified as 'hardcore' Universal fans?

The Harry Potter thing is a little weird to me, because I generally don't see the audience on Harry Potter growing much more past the current base (with the movies fizzling out). And with the old audience, they will have already seen the attractions in the other two parks by the time the third opens. I suppose the third could generate some renewed interest in the other two attractions.




I agree and this is the real question, whether the demographics between Disney and Universal are disparate enough that success or failure at one doesn't really impact the other. Hence the concern that the people most likely to go to Epic Universe are the ones already going to a Universal park to begin with.

There is, to be sure, a segment of the audience that would be classified as more general theme park fans that might switch spending from Disney to Universal, but I think they are generally a small group. At least where non-locals are concerned.

For locals it's a slightly different question that relies more on pricing. If Universal stays intent on keeping pricing low to encourage more local visitors, you could see a shift in local visitors prioritizing Epic Universe over WDW. Generally though, I'm thinking of the people who make 10+ trips to theme parks a year, shifting more to Universal. If Universal ends up wanting to chase more revenue though (to pay for the new park) that might not be where they want to go. They could end up in the same place as Disney, thinking the locals are just unfavorable.

My personal guess, I don't think it will be current Disney people switching. I'd guess a portion will be from people who have given up on Disney, and then another portion will be people who choose thrill parks more than Disney parks. I would be shocked if you don't see a significant uptick in visitors to Orlando, but I don't think Disney specifically will see a big uptick from it, which is potentially concerning for them based on what has been said recently about WDW attendance/spending.

 

[Touchdown]

I'm skeptical. People were saying the same things about IOA opening in the nineties.

How do you figure that people have been going to the Universal parks for half a week for at least 20 years now, and WDW attendance basically doubled in that time?

Do you think there is a large contingent of potential Orlando visitors who said "two parks aren't worth my time, but three? sign me up!"

Potter made Universal a half week trip, not IOA. Mario is going to turn Universal into a week stay. Look at how strong USH attendance has been recently. I know plenty of families with older kids who’ve done split trips, out of nostalgia, but come back enjoying Universal more. I just think the pull of Mario and Potter will cause most of those folks to ditch Mickey.

 

[GhostHost1000]

If Epic Universe does draw more people to the area than were visiting before how could they not visit Disney as well? Does that mean higher attendance at MK and DHS?

uh... $

 

[HauntedPirate]

For my vegan partner, WDW and Disneyland offer a range of options he’d be hard pressed to find elsewhere. I know it’s anathema to say so here, but we both think the food is pretty good (or most of what we’ve tried, at any rate).

To their credit, they tend to offer a good number of choices for most dietary needs. Maybe not at every food stand, but I think every QS and certainly every TS restaurant has options.

 

[HauntedPirate]

If anyone still wants to argue attendance is not down you’re just sticking your head in the sand.

Iger dodged a question about it harder than OJ dodged a guilty verdict.

And in 25 years, Bob will still be searching for the true CEO successor. From his super yacht, of course.

My impression of the thread is mostly two groups of people. The first are people who are saying it's way down. The second are people saying it's either about the same or not that much slower in response.

I don't think anyone is saying it's more crowded.

Comes down to what people consider way down or slightly down I guess. It's subjective to people on vacation. It's more analytical to people like Len Testa.

There have been people who have stated the parks are as crowded or more crowded than on previous trips. But I agree, it's entirely subjective and things can vary from day to day and week to week due to changes in the calendar and scheduling at the parks. I.e. "We went at the end of March last year and it was mobbed!" and because of the way Easter changes from year to year, that same week could be 1/3 less crowded the next year.

 

[HauntedPirate]

My personal guess, I don't think it will be current Disney people switching. I'd guess a portion will be from people who have given up on Disney, and then another portion will be people who choose thrill parks more than Disney parks. I would be shocked if you don't see a significant uptick in visitors to Orlando, but I don't think Disney specifically will see a big uptick from it, which is potentially concerning for them based on what has been said recently about WDW attendance/spending.

Remember that Orlando said there were more people flying in and out of MCO this past summer than ever before, but it didn't translate to increased attendance at any of the parks.

They won't say it publicly, because Bob and his 'Blue Ocean' beliefs, but I think Disney has every reason to be concerned about EU pulling people away.

 

[Drdcm]

Vacation time is a finite resource for most people. Most people get a certain amount of PTO each year that they devote to vacation… even if you ignore the financial aspect. Something’s gotta give if new options open up when there are now more options available than can be fit into one trip.

I’m not going to be adding a day for EU. I’m going to take a day away from somewhere else in order to fit it in.

 

[Grimley1968]

With the capacity of their strongest competitor increased by about 50%, WDW could be in serious jeopardy of losing many Universal guests who might otherwise visit WDW for a day or two. WDW's "charge more for less" attitude toward their guests won't help them if they are serious about keeping their attendance static, much less increasing it again.

If I were a Universal guest, I'd be more tempted to vary my vacation by going to the beach for a day or two versus going over to WDW.

 

[Andrew25]

Vacation time is a finite resource for most people. Most people get a certain amount of PTO each year that they devote to vacation… even if you ignore the financial aspect. Something’s gotta give if new options open up when there are now more options available than can be fit into one trip.

I’m not going to be adding a day for EU. I’m going to take a day away from somewhere else in order to fit it in.

Exactly the point. People who previously were not interested in attending Universal will now have another strong opportunity to do so. Even if it takes away 1 or 2 days away from the typical 5-6 day WDW vacation, that's hurting Disney.

But you can also say the opposite that WDW will benefit from people visiting EU and visit WDW for a day or two.

 

[el_super]

I just think the pull of Mario and Potter will cause most of those folks to ditch Mickey.

Very doubtful. The "my IP is better than your IP" argument doesn't really have much merit. People can feel just as nostalgic for Mario as they do for Frozen or Encanto or any other Disney IP.