Is attendance really down at WDW this or…

[el_super]

Vacation time is a finite resource for most people. Most people get a certain amount of PTO each year that they devote to vacation… even if you ignore the financial aspect. Something’s gotta give if new options open up when there are now more options available than can be fit into one trip.

That makes sense where everyone is equal and the desire to go to both resorts are equal. I don't think that's the case though. If Disney's demographic is families with children under 13 and Universal is children between 18 and 13, the two demographics won't have a lot of cross over, and Universal will mostly be competing against itself, and other area attractions that already appeal to the non-Disney crowd.

The people going to WDW today, that are spending 7+ days in Orlando for WDW, and devoting a couple days to Universal, are the ones most likely to drop a day at another Universal park to make room for Epic Universe.

Disney doesn't have to be worried about losing out to Epic Universe. The experiences are still different enough and appealing to different audiences in a way that both can co-exist and succeed together. The bigger worries for Universal are cannibalizing existing park attendance and a whole slew of other external economic factors that might Epic falter upon opening.

 

[Touchdown]

Very doubtful. The "my IP is better than your IP" argument doesn't really have much merit. People can feel just as nostalgic for Mario as they do for Frozen or Encanto or any other Disney IP.

If I’m a preteen or teenager, especially a male one I think I know who wins, which was the age I was highlighting.

 

[TheMaxRebo]

I'm skeptical. People were saying the same things about IOA opening in the nineties.

How do you figure that people have been going to the Universal parks for half a week for at least 20 years now, and WDW attendance basically doubled in that time?

Do you think there is a large contingent of potential Orlando visitors who said "two parks aren't worth my time, but three? sign me up!"

I think the difference here isn't the park attendance as much as the hotel stays ... prior people would stay at Disney and maybe hop over to Universal for a day or two. More recently maybe a split stay but if so usually just a couple of nights (or maybe just one) to get Express pass, etc.

But with the full 3 parks and all these hotels coming on line (and some having even more options for more than 4 people in a room), assuming they stay at more reasonable rates than Disney hotels I can see that flip, at least for some, where staying at Universal is their main location and they either just hop over to Disney for a day or two (maybe just for an afterhours event) or do a split stay, but with few days at Disney

I don't think anything realistically will "kill" Disney, but it's going to be very interesting to see the change to vacation patterns when EU and the other parts of that construction come on line

 

[TheMaxRebo]

Exactly the point. People who previously were not interested in attending Universal will now have another strong opportunity to do so. Even if it takes away 1 or 2 days away from the typical 5-6 day WDW vacation, that's hurting Disney.

But you can also say the opposite that WDW will benefit from people visiting EU and visit WDW for a day or two.

yeah, there are two dimensions - there is the share of the pie and the size of the pie

EU will definitely result in Universal taking more share of the Orlando tourist pie ... BUT it will also increase the size of the total pie, so each % of the pie is larger

But will EU take 2% more or 20% more? Will that come just from Disney or will Disney be ok but SeaWorld and Fun Spot and stuff like that take most of the hit? Will the pie grow enough that total people to Disney and elsewhere is the same even at reduced share or not?

 

[Drdcm]

That makes sense where everyone is equal and the desire to go to both resorts are equal. I don't think that's the case though. If Disney's demographic is families with children under 13 and Universal is children between 18 and 13, the two demographics won't have a lot of cross over, and Universal will mostly be competing against itself, and other area attractions that already appeal to the non-Disney crowd.

The people going to WDW today, that are spending 7+ days in Orlando for WDW, and devoting a couple days to Universal, are the ones most likely to drop a day at another Universal park to make room for Epic Universe.

Disney doesn't have to be worried about losing out to Epic Universe. The experiences are still different enough and appealing to different audiences in a way that both can co-exist and succeed together. The bigger worries for Universal are cannibalizing existing park attendance and a whole slew of other external economic factors that might Epic falter upon opening.

Yet again, you completely missed my point... actually I’m not sure if you did. You seem to be arguing with yourself in your own post

 

[Lilofan]

Remember that Orlando said there were more people flying in and out of MCO this past summer than ever before, but it didn't translate to increased attendance at any of the parks.

They won't say it publicly, because Bob and his 'Blue Ocean' beliefs, but I think Disney has every reason to be concerned about EU pulling people away.

There are many places to enjoy that is non WDW in Central FL. Also a number of guests visit family living in Central FL , own/ rent vacation real estate and fly into MCO. Hence the busy MCO during the summer.

 

[erasure fan1]

Very doubtful. The "my IP is better than your IP" argument doesn't really have much merit. People can feel just as nostalgic for Mario as they do for Frozen or Encanto or any other Disney IP.

Of course they can. That's why this will be so interesting to watch unfold. Super Nintendo land should be a huge draw. I've seen a lot of Universal is for kids over 13 and Disney is for the family demographic with young kids. So EU isn't or won't be a real threat. Well hold the phone, Nintendo gives universal an area that falls squarely in the family with young kids demographic. Will that translate to a significant drop for Disney world? Not necessarily, but it's kind of interesting to see how many people aren't giving the IP a real chance. Personally I won't be shocked if it does effect Disney.

 

[Fordlover]

Potter made Universal a half week trip, not IOA. Mario is going to turn Universal into a week stay. Look at how strong USH attendance has been recently. I know plenty of families with older kids who’ve done split trips, out of nostalgia, but come back enjoying Universal more. I just think the pull of Mario and Potter will cause most of those folks to ditch Mickey.

In general, this represents my family. Been long time Disney fans, In fact I've only been to Universal once. But the trip I just booked is going to be Universal/IOA as the primary, and we may spend a day at WDW or just visit property and ride the monorail / skyliner. I always felt that Disney just did things better/cleaner/classy. Our last trip and all the changes (charge$) have really turned me off, and watching my Disney stock struggle/sink isn't helping.
Anyway, this is our first trip to the Orlando area without concrete plans to spend even a $1 on WDW property. Just a few short years ago I would have bet against this reality heavily as a long time Disney fan.

 

[Lilofan]

In general, this represents my family. Been long time Disney fans, In fact I've only been to Universal once. But the trip I just booked is going to be Universal/IOA as the primary, and we may spend a day at WDW or just visit property and ride the monorail / skyliner. I always felt that Disney just did things better/cleaner/classy. Our last trip and all the changes (charge$) have really turned me off, and watching my Disney stock struggle/sink isn't helping.
Anyway, this is our first trip to the Orlando area without concrete plans to spend even a $1 on WDW property. Just a few short years ago I would have bet against this reality heavily as a long time Disney fan.

You will still see Mickey items for sale at MCO when you land. Spending a day at WDW without buying anything is slim chance to none for our family.

 

[Fordlover]

You will still see Mickey items for sale at MCO when you land. Spending a day at WDW without buying anything is slim chance to none for our family.

Ahh well we drive from Houston, so no MCO for us. Last I saw there was no gift shop on the Monorail or Skyliner (Bobs! missed opportunity!!), although I've not actually ridden the Skyliner yet. For the record I'm not saying WDW won't get any money from us, but currently there are no plans, and for us this concept would be unthinkable pre 2021.

 

[Lilofan]

Ahh well we drive from Houston, so no MCO for us. Last I saw there was no gift shop on the Monorail or Skyliner (Bobs! missed opportunity!!), although I've not actually ridden the Skyliner yet. For the record I'm not saying WDW won't get any money from us, but currently there are no plans, and for us this concept would be unthinkable pre 2021.

Long drive but many good eating options off of I-10 in LA, FL. I've driven the route my best cheap meal was at a gas station cafe in LA of hot and juicy crawfish, seafood gumbo, with some ice cold beer.

 

[Miss Bella]

Travel agent contacts are saying it’s 100% both

I would say that's definitely the case. I think we'll really see this play out next Summer.

 

[Trauma]

For the people that know these things does Universal have room to build a 4th park in Orlando ?

 

[JoeCamel]

For the people that know these things does Universal have room to build a 4th park in Orlando ?

Yes, like the studios EU was designed to have the parking replaced with a garage and a new park built in the parking area.

 

[Touchdown]

But it won’t happen for awhile, EU has expansion pads, and with Universal shifting many backstage offices and departments off the main campus Studios and or IOA will be able to expand towards each other (potentially taking over some soundstages)

 

[DisneyHead123]

I think Epic Universe will definitely be competition for boys. Even at preschool age, all the little guys in my area were dressed up as Mario this year. And it likely doesn’t help that Magic Kingdom has really gone all-in on princess culture. It’s probably helped them to absolutely corner that market, but with Cinderella’s Royal Table, BBB, Sir Mickey’s, and a fair number of princess themed attractions… there seems to be a lot that is girl themed but not much that is boy themed.

It seems like Disney has had a hard time coming up with new IP that really resonates with boys, for whatever reason. Mickey is still a hit, and Spidey, but when it comes to original content from the past decade or so.

 

[drizgirl]

I think Epic Universe will definitely be competition for boys. Even at preschool age, all the little guys in my area were dressed up as Mario this year. And it likely doesn’t help that Magic Kingdom has really gone all-in on princess culture. It’s probably helped them to absolutely corner that market, but with Cinderella’s Royal Table, BBB, Sir Mickey’s, and a fair number of princess themed attractions… there seems to be a lot that is girl themed but not much that is boy themed.

It seems like Disney has had a hard time coming up with new IP that really resonates with boys, for whatever reason. Mickey is still a hit, and Spidey, but when it comes to original content from the past decade or so.

Sir Mickey's? Isn't that a gift shop?

Are Tomorrowland, Adventureland and Frontierland not enough for boys?

As for new IP, are Marvel and SW not enough?

 

[Touchdown]

Sir Mickey's? Isn't that a gift shop?

Are Tomorrowland, Adventureland and Frontierland not enough for boys?

As for new IP, are Marvel and SW not enough?

Marvel can’t really be used in Orlando, the most popular franchises with staying power (Spidy, X-men, F4) are in Universal. Frontierland is getting a princess ride. Mario is a far bigger draw, I don’t know why people keep on discounting him, and just wait until Pokémon Land comes.

 

[drizgirl]

Marvel can’t really be used in Orlando, the most popular franchises with staying power (Spidy, X-men, F4) are in Universal. Frontierland is getting a princess ride. Mario is a far bigger draw, I don’t know why people keep on discounting him, and just wait until Pokémon Land comes.

Well, Guardians is certainly a big draw at Epcot.

And add Tron to the list even though it isn't Marvel.

Disney has done very little with the princess franchise in the parks since NFL opened in 2012.

 

[celluloid]

For the people that know these things does Universal have room to build a 4th park in Orlando ?

To put it in perspective, with the land aquired(bought back) for Epic Universe's expansion, you could fit the entire current offerings of Universal Orlando, including onsite hotels and Citywalk about Twice.