Is attendance really down at WDW this or…

[PREMiERdrum]

…I’m starting to really like you…

Anyway…this quarterly call is a
Huge deal…and I think Iger has ordered to not issue even more discounts until after it comes out and they use it as a “see…we’re gonna sell now!” Response.

Just a hunch

Without getting too deep into history....

Going back to the mid-twenty-teens, promotions and discounts were largely structured to upsell guests into more expensive room categories, more ticket options or days, or higher-level dining locks than they either had initially booked or would likely book (if coming in as a fresh booking off the promotion). While people like us on this message board could absolutely clean up, the vast majority of guests were willingly forking over more money for what they were sure was a "better deal."

Over a decade or so, they had things down to such a science that they could issue annual markups to every component of the package and then upsell via promotions so that even after the discounts they were coming out ahead. The "Value adds" that came along as conditions of the promotions were little-to-no real cost to them, so moving you into that Deluxe View room or elevated Dining Plan was all gravy.

For the first time since their current pricing model came into focus, their plan is failing. They have finally pushed too far, needing to squeeze more and more raw dollars out of shrinking gate clicks and cratering occupancy. The real fix - the one I think we'll be at this time next year - is to thoroughly rework (and rebrand, ugh) their pricing model.

In the short term - definitely after the quarterly call (and if the noise I'm picking up is correct, right up to or even after the holiday travel period), we'll see some broader promotions and, ahem, popular discounts. Their model works on three metrics being steady YOY: Gate Clicks, Per Guest Spending, and Onsite Room Occupancy. One of those is ticking up a bit, one ticking down more than a bit, and one cratering.

What's happening now isn't sustainable, and it hasn't been for nearly 6 months. They know how to fix it, but my lord are they scared to ring that bell.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Without getting too deep into history....

Going back to the mid-twenty-teens, promotions and discounts were largely structured to upsell guests into more expensive room categories, more ticket options or days, or higher-level dining locks than they either had initially booked or would likely book (if coming in as a fresh booking off the promotion). While people like us on this message board could absolutely clean up, the vast majority of guests were willingly forking over more money for what they were sure was a "better deal."

Over a decade or so, they had things down to such a science that they could issue annual markups to every component of the package and then upsell via promotions that even after the discounts they were coming out ahead. The "Value adds" that came along as conditions of the promotions were little-to-no real cost to them, so moving you into that Deluxe View room or elevated Dining Plan was all gravy to them.

For the first time since their current pricing model came into focus, their plan is failing. They have finally pushed too far, needing to squeeze more and more raw dollars out of shrinking gate clicks and cratering attendance numbers. The real fix - the one I think we'll be at this time next year - is to thoroughly rework (and rebrand, ugh) their pricing model.

In the short term - definitely after the quarterly call (and if the noise I'm picking up is correct, right up to or even after the holiday travel period), we'll see some broader promotions and, ahem, popular discounts. Their model works on three metrics being steady YOY: Gate Clicks, Per Guest Spending, and Onsite Room Occupancy. One of those is ticking up a bit, one ticking down more than a bit, and one cratering.

What's happening now isn't sustainable, and it hasn't been for nearly 6 months. They know how to fix it, but my lord are they scared to ring that bell.

I’m glad you typed all that

But the reality is they can’t actually cut their costs. It will never be allowed.

So Bob - never ever wrong - will try the same tricks that date from the housing crash era. Watch it play.

Difference now is their core clientele just can’t afford them with what has happened with consumer prices outside Disney parks. Not enough people have $12K for a week…too many things cost much more at home.

I think it may not be about the parks at all. It’s more about the tuition and the fuel and food costs. Strange but possible…

And they’d be in much worse shape if disneylanders weren’t running convenient interference for them. Stay home occasionally, dudes

 

[Miss Bella]

Not just here but in other forums and other local discussions I have had with fans and on YouTube.

The thing is that people don't "want" think that there is a crack in Disney's armor. It's like they are finding out their king has no clothes and it's unsettling!

For most of us, Disney is a company that makes entertainment for us. We like it well enough and we respect Walt Disney and how he built this company and how it grew over the decades. We respect it's long history and it's high quality standards. Simple, right?

But then there ARE some people that take their love of Disney MUCH further. For some people, Disney is something they "believe" in.....almost in a religious way...as in a "cult-style" mentality. It's THESE people that react very negatively or nervously when they hear bad news. It's THESE people that are the quickest to jam their fingers in their ears and run away. They scream "hater" or "liar" at the person delivering the bad news as they run to a safe space.

Yes,....many times these people even work INSIDE Disney! Sometimes even THEY can't handle the idea of negative news too.

Thankfully,..these people are not too common and are just a minority in the grand scheme of things. However, I do feel very bad for them and I have a lot of empathy for their condition.

They are pretty common on other forums. Disney cruise line fans are the worst offenders. You know the soda is free on a Disney cruise….

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

They are pretty common on other forums. Disney cruise line fans are the worst offenders. You know the soda is free on a Disney cruise….

…I didn’t say it

I MAY not have even thought it

 

[PREMiERdrum]

I’m glad you typed all that

But the reality is they can’t actually cut their costs. It will never be allowed.

So Bob - never ever wrong - will try the same tricks that date from the housing crash era. Watch it play.

Difference now is their core clientele just can’t afford them with what has happened with consumer prices outside Disney parks. Not enough people have $12K for a week…too many things cost much more at home.

I think it may not be about the parks at all. It’s more about the tuition and the fuel and food costs. Strange but possible…

And they’d be in much worse shape if disneylanders weren’t running convenient interference for them. Stay home occasionally, dudes

Interestingly, they already started the best fix a couple years pre-COVID... then hesitantly walked it back.

Their margins require that they sell a "premium" priced product. SO... simplify the package booking process, offer fewer upgrade options at booking (but more closer to arrival, a la cruising), and regroup resorts by locale instead of price range (thus eliminating the cost limitations) and they're onto something.

We're getting there... eventually.

 

[networkpro]

They are pretty common on other forums. Disney cruise line fans are the worst offenders. You know the soda is free on a Disney cruise….

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Interestingly, they already started the best fix a couple years pre-COVID... then hesitantly walked it back.

Their margins require that they sell a "premium" priced product. SO... simplify the package booking process, offer fewer upgrade options at booking (but more closer to arrival, a la cruising), and regroup resorts by locale instead of price range (thus eliminating the cost limitations) and they're onto something.

We're getting there... eventually.

That luxury nonsense was never gonna work. For about a thousand reasons.

The real danger for Disney here…and it’s still too early to call…is that they may have gone to where a significant part of the customer pool now considers them a “ripoff”

That’s like “crossing the river” for a cat from the Eisner era

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

View attachment 749805View attachment 749805

…pretty sure that’s virgin?

 

[PREMiERdrum]

…pretty sure that’s virgin?

Is WALL-E over 18?

 

[Miss Bella]

View attachment 749805View attachment 749805

We chose Royal over Disney this year for our 12-day Med cruise. We saved 6k. We didn't drink any soda for 12 days just to make sure we really saved 6k.

 

[TheMaxRebo]

We chose Royal over Disney this year for our 12-day Med cruise. We saved 6k. We didn't drink any soda for 12 days just to make sure we really saved 6k.

though royal seems to be following the Disney model or marketing to families, jacking up pricing (2025-26 Icon cruises are as much or more than Disney cruise line), and charging for extra (adults only area on private Island is an extra cost to get in, etc)

Just interesting reading on RCL forums people complaining about the same thing people here complain about Disney

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

though royal seems to be following the Disney model or marketing to families, jacking up pricing (2025-26 Icon cruises are as much or more than Disney cruise line), and charging for extra (adults only area on private Island is an extra cost to get in, etc)

Just interesting reading on RCL forums people complaining about the same thing people here complain about Disney

Royal is booming a bit and their prices are jacking up

The reason why so many complaints IMHO is they were down for a number of years going into Covid and the deals were fantastic. I believe it was an extended cruise specific drought from the bad press of Noro and some very public ship failures/incidents

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Oh yes, those people are the worst.

…don’t be so hard on yourself. I still love you as much as I love Mario Lemieux

 

[HauntedPirate]

though royal seems to be following the Disney model or marketing to families, jacking up pricing (2025-26 Icon cruises are as much or more than Disney cruise line), and charging for extra (adults only area on private Island is an extra cost to get in, etc)

Just interesting reading on RCL forums people complaining about the same thing people here complain about Disney

To be fair, a brand new (and huge) ship is always going to have the highest pricing. The tell is what they charge for older ships for similar itineraries.

Some fascinating posts in this thread in the past day or two. Love it.

Interestingly, they already started the best fix a couple years pre-COVID... then hesitantly walked it back.

Their margins require that they sell a "premium" priced product. SO... simplify the package booking process, offer fewer upgrade options at booking (but more closer to arrival, a la cruising), and regroup resorts by locale instead of price range (thus eliminating the cost limitations) and they're onto something.

We're getting there... eventually.

Is this what many were alluding to around that time where they would do away with resort classifications and instead sell based on location? Because that would allow them to really jack prices up on some resorts (not that they haven't already done so). But I also believe they've already gone too far with their pricing push, and for many, Disney is teetering close to the psychological edge of being considered "a ripoff". It's hard to shake off that sentiment once you earn it.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

That's a really interesting chart. Is there a way, do you think, to factor in population increase? According to census data, the population of the US has grown by a third since 1990 (248.7 million in 1990, 331.4 million in 2020). I realize that the chart shows income percentage numbers which can be compared like-to-like, but the actual numbers would, I think, make a difference also. Prices are being raised to make much more money, undoubtedly, but is it in any way being used to limit capacity (e.g., not appealing to the top X% of the population, but rather an objective number whose corresponding income level continues to rise because the population does)? It's a genuine question, and not meant to be a slight on the data representation in any way. I can't quite figure out how to go about figuring out whether population growth is an issue, and if so, by how much.

Population has increased…but at least domestically the share of the money has shrunk at a much higher rate…

To put it succinctly: there are probably much more people below the threshold to even have a shot at going now than there was in 1990 and they cancel the increases out

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Goose... golden egg... etc.

So you’re saying someone in burbank may actually be the Boston strangler?

 

[Trauma]

I just realized that this will be the first 365 day period that I have not gone to Disney in over 10 years.

In fairness it’s just a busy year getting my Daughter ready for college.

That being said I am very excited to visit Epic Universe when it opens.

I wish Disney had something in the works to move my excitement needle, but Co-Op Mountain isn’t doing it for me.

 

[el_super]

Disney is teetering close to the psychological edge of being considered "a ripoff". It's hard to shake off that sentiment once you earn it.

For decades, Disney has been seen as a ripoff to some. That never really changes.

They will be fine.

 

[GhostHost1000]

For decades, Disney has been seen as a ripoff to some. That never really changes.

They will be fine.

what is your definition of "fine" exactly? Still in business?

 

[Tha Realest]

what is your definition of "fine" exactly? Still in business?

Merriam-Webster’s defines fine, in this context, as “well or healthy : not sick or injured.”

Of course, there’s this: