Disstevefan1
Well-Known Member
I wonder how they calculate movie revenue? Do they just list the money coming in from a given movie and all the costs to make and market the movie end up in a column in another sheet?
-
Welcome to the WDWMAGIC.COM Forums!
Please take a look around, and feel free to sign up and join the community.
Is attendance really down at WDW this or…
- Thread starter coachb
- Start date
JD80
Well-Known Member
I fully expect DCL and the international parks to prop up the numbers for 2023. Which is quite the turnaround from just about every other year.
I think they have reached the limits for some, but not others. Some will go no matter what, for reasons that are personal to them. Others look at things more rationally and say, "thanks but no thanks" when seeing prices and other options. Others go because that's what they think they're supposed to do for little Johnny and Susie.But with more information, reviews, and opinions available than ever, it's easy to arm yourself with data before making the decision. As the years have gone by, I've realized it's really something that has to be looked at with a logical lens and not an emotional one.
I personally don't see the soft bookings going away anytime soon. I just don't think there's enough demand after the post-Covid "travel binge" finally subsided to sustain things at a level Bob and Josh want/need. And to believe that leisure travel demand will just happily continue and won't be affected by inflation, rising interest rates, debt levels at record levels, etc., is naive, at best. It's been said long and often enough but some here never seem to remember it - Leisure travel is one of the first things to go when times get tough. There have been many reports this year of record travel into Orlando and Florida in general, but park attendance and resort bookings have not been reflective of that, both at WDW and up I-4.
This is my suspicion, but it's only speculation because it has to do with the human psyche and the masses perception of things. Inflation was high for a few years but has now nearly come down to normal levels (we're in the 3's, normal over the last decade is 2's?). The problem is that our society has not normalized new pricing yet.
Whether it's from Corporate greed, inflation in general or both.
So it'll take a year or two of "normal" inflationary rates for people to get used to new pricing levels. So in relation to Disney you have a one day ticket goes from $109 (2019) to $147 (2023).
A) Disney raising prices (~18% increase)
B) Inflation raising prices (~20% increase)
So as people choose where they want to go on vacation and they are at least somewhat cost conscious they will see the price of Disney and balk. It was always expensive, but with inflation it's just that much more crazy expensive. They will immediately go look for something cheaper.
Disney will have an issue most likely in 2024 and into 2025 with attendance (not even considering EU opening) because it'll take people 1-2 years to mentally accept new prices, 1-2 years for them to get a promotion or another job to equalize new pay scales.
You'll likely see Disney provide new deals like the new one with ticket discounts but for more broader audiences. There is a reason why it's so narrow in scope just for kids under 10. They are dipping their toes into the water to see if it works before trying anything else.
Last edited:
JD80
Well-Known Member
Movies bring in other revenue outside of ticket sales over it's life time.
lentesta
Premium Member
Disney already has a reputation for complexity. Adding ANOTHER way to wait in line would be farcical at this point. They've already got standby, Genie+, Individual Lightning Lane, Child Swap, DAS, and Virtual Queues.
Lightning Lane revenue has created a couple of problems within the company:
- Wall Street has baked into its expectations the $100s of millions of LL revenue per year. That bucket starts out empty every quarter and has to be filled. Nobody in management is incented to take the hit that would happen if that revenue went away, because all of them are focused on this-quarter and this-fiscal-year management.
- They can't bring down ILL rides like ROTR for the long-term maintenance they need, because that would cost the park $10s of millions in ILL by itself. Nobody from the park VP, to D'Amaro, to Iger, is going to take a $30MM hit in DHS revenue unless there's no other option. And the other option right now is "guest dissatisfaction is manageable."
LSLS
Well-Known Member
Revenue would be all the income brought in before any expenses.
TheMaxRebo
Well-Known Member
I don't see the benefit of giving G+ free to any guests as the system works better the fewer people that actually have it. Start giving it away and it becomes less of a benefit to everyone (unless they cap lower the # the sell but that seems silly)
I think other perks they can give to resort guests (let them pre-buy/pre-book more than off site, etc) but really don't see anyone getting it for free
I think other perks they can give to resort guests (let them pre-buy/pre-book more than off site, etc) but really don't see anyone getting it for free
Andrew25
Well-Known Member
Short-term plan: increase "limited-time magic" AP benefits with monthly programs (like SeaWorld - 15% additional merch discount, etc.), and go heavy on discounts for FL residents.
Long-term plan: build more high-capacity attractions at each park, remove individual LL, and replace it with an "all-you-can-eat" $$$$ Lightning Lane pass with 1-time restrictions on Rise, FoP, Frozen, Seven Dwarfs. Bring back either a full hour of early park admission or extra magic hours to incentivize hotel guests.
Also bring back the Fastpass branding... literally everyone calls it that.
Long-term plan: build more high-capacity attractions at each park, remove individual LL, and replace it with an "all-you-can-eat" $$$$ Lightning Lane pass with 1-time restrictions on Rise, FoP, Frozen, Seven Dwarfs. Bring back either a full hour of early park admission or extra magic hours to incentivize hotel guests.
Also bring back the Fastpass branding... literally everyone calls it that.
el_super
Well-Known Member
It can't be that much of a concern if they are raising prices.
Attendance isn't the end goal for corporate Disney. Revenue and profits are. If they can achieve the same amount (or more!) of revenue coming in, with fewer people in the park, they will choose that all day and night, since it also lowers their operating costs and the overall stress on the infrastructure.
Having fewer people in the park also makes for a better overall experience.
I'm still holding out that their long term goal is to manage demand through ticket prices to the point that Genie+ is not seen as a "must have" feature.
JD80
Well-Known Member
The other big thing that changed was discounts on tickets as you bought more of them.
In 2019 going from 4 to 5 tickets cost less than $50 for a family. Now it's $400+. I was always somewhat confused why this change was made other than money. Would a family of 4 or 5 not spend more money in the parks instead of having a "resort" day or going offsite to another theme park?
In 2019 going from 4 to 5 tickets cost less than $50 for a family. Now it's $400+. I was always somewhat confused why this change was made other than money. Would a family of 4 or 5 not spend more money in the parks instead of having a "resort" day or going offsite to another theme park?
Disstevefan1
Well-Known Member
Yup, so the actual losses from the making and marketing of the movies are hidden in a different tab of a different sheet.
True. And everything has become much more expensive right now, from mortgages (rates at 23-year highs) to car loans to food and consumer goods... it's a nasty storm.
And with the rate of inflation, that's only if you believe the government-reported inflation rate. Which I and many others don't.
But let's not go down that rabbit hole. Yep, avg consumer debt currently is $92K. I would not do it but some go on vacation and go deeper into debt.True. And everything has become much more expensive right now, from mortgages (rates at 23-year highs) to car loans to food and consumer goods... it's a nasty storm.
And with the rate of inflation, that's only if you believe the government-reported inflation rate. Which I and many others don't.
JD80
Well-Known Member
And with the rate of inflation, that's only if you believe the government-reported inflation rate. Which I and many others don't.
Yes please keep the conspiracy theories elsewhere.
JD80
Well-Known Member
No judging on the cost of vacation, but for mental and physical health the price of a vacation is worth it. It makes you more productive and reduces stress.
It's not theory when the government has changed the way inflation is calculated twice since 1980.
But yes, we don't need to get into the weeds with what the government has done. 
Hey, sandy beaches tend to be pretty relaxing for me.
Particularly when I can have cold adult beverages of my choosing along with a beautiful sunset.We needed a vacation after our vacation at WDW. Great times , limited sleep , lots of sweating and walking in the heat. Average food but that’s expected. Some in my firm are afraid to take long periods of time off since some feel they can be easily replaced and or job eliminated. Seen it happen and it’s not pretty.
From the reports I have read, some of the expenses/marketing was added to D+ P&L. So when Chapek wanted to change the way expenses were allocated back to the Studios so D+ would not show such a large loss, McCarthy was blindsided as he had not included her in his plans. That is why it was reported she went to the board and said she no longer had faith in his leadership.Yup, so the actual losses from the making and marketing of the movies are hidden in a different tab of a different sheet.
AEfx
Well-Known Member
It's so funny when people act like the effect inflation has had on families has somehow been abated because that number has started to go back down.And with the rate of inflation, that's only if you believe the government-reported inflation rate. Which I and many others don't.
It's like saying a runaway train has slightly lost speed - it's still a runaway train, it's just going to crash a few minutes later now.
Life is not easy, for many, and with all the instability everywhere, it doesn't look like it's getting any better.
The rampant inflation has had the most drastic affect on changing the habits of the very consumer that WDW depended on - the regular, yearly (or even more frequent) visitors who were middle class-ish families who could just afford their Disney habit. Food, gas, utilities have all skyrocketed, and not to mention housing - anyone who didn't have a fixed rate mortgage right now is really hurting (and of course renters are paying more than ever as well).
When people have half as much money and Disney now costs twice as much, it's just not a mystery.
Only if people watch them and networks air them and they pass their budget or interest people enough to buy merch. And that marvel and Star Wars train is screeching to a halt from oversaturation and the company has packed quality im diversifying.
It is not the 1980s anymore and Disney can now lose money on theatrical release and lose money on Disney Plus too.
A movie does not have a life.time if not many like it. Too many of those lately against high budgets of ones people do.
lentesta
Premium Member
Some fun math related to this.
If you believe:
Split the difference and call it 16MM. That seems like a reasonable first guess.
Of course, posted wait times aren't accurate, and there's a different mix of attractions in 2023 vs previous years.
But I'd argue that that different attraction mix is (generally) already represented in the wait times. The one exception would be TRON, which doesn't post waits. But I think it's a safe assumption to say it's running at 100% capacity with no standby queue.
Incidentally, I also ran this with wait times just during the peak of the day, and got a wider (but similar) range of numbers.
If you believe:
- AECOM's Magic Kingdom attendance numbers for 2019 and 2022
- Look at the MK's average wait times at all attractions all day for 2019, 2022, and 2023 YTD
- Calculate the ratio of those average wait times to daily attendance in 2019 and 2022
- And project for 2023 daily attendance
Split the difference and call it 16MM. That seems like a reasonable first guess.
Of course, posted wait times aren't accurate, and there's a different mix of attractions in 2023 vs previous years.
But I'd argue that that different attraction mix is (generally) already represented in the wait times. The one exception would be TRON, which doesn't post waits. But I think it's a safe assumption to say it's running at 100% capacity with no standby queue.
Incidentally, I also ran this with wait times just during the peak of the day, and got a wider (but similar) range of numbers.