Is attendance really down at WDW this or…

Dranth

Dranth

Well-Known Member
lentesta said:
Some fun math related to this.

If you believe:
You get a ballpark estimate of between 15MM and 17MM visitors for the MK for all of 2023.

Split the difference and call it 16MM. That seems like a reasonable first guess.

Of course, posted wait times aren't accurate, and there's a different mix of attractions in 2023 vs previous years.

But I'd argue that that different attraction mix is (generally) already represented in the wait times. The one exception would be TRON, which doesn't post waits. But I think it's a safe assumption to say it's running at 100% capacity with no standby queue.

Incidentally, I also ran this with wait times just during the peak of the day, and got a wider (but similar) range of numbers.
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So, if this holds, we are looking at something around a 6% decrease in MK attendance vs. 2022? It would be interesting to see how that applies across to the other parks (including Universal) as I would expect MK to be the least impacted followed by either EPCOT or IoA.
 
JD80

JD80

Well-Known Member
AEfx said:
It's so funny when people act like the effect inflation has had on families has somehow been abated because that number has started to go back down.

It's like saying a runaway train has slightly lost speed - it's still a runaway train, it's just going to crash a few minutes later now.

Life is not easy, for many, and with all the instability everywhere, it doesn't look like it's getting any better.

The rampant inflation has had the most drastic affect on changing the habits of the very consumer that WDW depended on - the regular, yearly (or even more frequent) visitors who were middle class-ish families who could just afford their Disney habit. Food, gas, utilities have all skyrocketed, and not to mention housing - anyone who didn't have a fixed rate mortgage right now is really hurting (and of course renters are paying more than ever as well).

When people have half as much money and Disney now costs twice as much, it's just not a mystery.
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Disney costs about 20% more adjusting for inflation.

That's quick math. And widely varies depending on your travel habits and tastes, but looking at resort stay and tickets a fam of 4 is paying maybe 1000 more for a week in 2023 vs 2019 assuming all 2023 dollars. 5k vs. 6k.
 
Nubs70

Nubs70

Well-Known Member
JD80 said:
Disney costs about 20% more adjusting for inflation.

That's quick math. And widely varies depending on your travel habits and tastes, but looking at resort stay and tickets a fam of 4 is paying maybe 1000 more for a week in 2023 vs 2019 assuming all 2023 dollars. 5k vs. 6k.
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And given inflation, the cost of living for the average middle class US family has risen by $8,500 per year.

So, even if prices have only increased from 5k to 6k. The allocation of lower purchasing power to basic cost of living needs does not leave room for a discretionary week at WDW.

There are no levers for WDW to pull. The client demographic for WDW is shrinking.
 
eliza61nyc

eliza61nyc

Well-Known Member
AEfx said:
It's so funny when people act like the effect inflation has had on families has somehow been abated because that number has started to go back down.

It's like saying a runaway train has slightly lost speed - it's still a runaway train, it's just going to crash a few minutes later now.

Life is not easy, for many, and with all the instability everywhere, it doesn't look like it's getting any better.

The rampant inflation has had the most drastic affect on changing the habits of the very consumer that WDW depended on - the regular, yearly (or even more frequent) visitors who were middle class-ish families who could just afford their Disney habit. Food, gas, utilities have all skyrocketed, and not to mention housing - anyone who didn't have a fixed rate mortgage right now is really hurting (and of course renters are paying more than ever as well).

When people have half as much money and Disney now costs twice as much, it's just not a mystery.
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But here's the thing the confuses me. Folks here act like Disney was free or cheap back in the day. That any body who wanted to go could go. Now I know this is purely anecdotal but my family nor no one I knew could afford it when it first opened. Lol we hated it our first time because it was so expensive.

Now don't get me wrong Disney is absolutely ridiculously expensive but my point is your argument is one we hear from every politician, tv news show, & financial pundit and I totally agree but it's not Disney responsibility to guarantee everyone a vacation there.

Now personally, people not going maybe what is need to kick the powers that be at Disney in the backside. I'm just don't remember Disney being this "cheap, everyone can afford it" vacation
 
TheMaxRebo

TheMaxRebo

Well-Known Member
Nubs70 said:
And given inflation, the cost of living for the average middle class US family has risen by $8,500 per year.

So, even if prices have only increased from 5k to 6k. The allocation of lower purchasing power to basic cost of living needs does not leave room for a discretionary week at WDW.

There are no levers for WDW to pull. The client demographic for WDW is shrinking.
Click to expand...

But is Disney ok with that? If attendance shrinks by 6% but each person is paying 20% more that is still a net positive for them (assuming expenses are up less than 20%)

Only real issue is if it drops by more than 20% or if the guests aren't spending as much per guest
 
Jrb1979

Jrb1979

Well-Known Member
eliza61nyc said:
But here's the thing the confuses me. Folks here act like Disney was free or cheap back in the day. That any body who wanted to go could go. Now I know this is purely anecdotal but my family nor no one I knew could afford it when it first opened. Lol we hated it our first time because it was so expensive.

Now don't get me wrong Disney is absolutely ridiculously expensive but my point is your argument is one we hear from every politician, tv news show, & financial pundit and I totally agree but it's not Disney responsibility to guarantee everyone a vacation there.

Now personally, people not going maybe what is need to kick the powers that be at Disney in the backside. I'm just don't remember Disney being this "cheap, everyone can afford it" vacation
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It was never a cheap vacation but it also is more expensive now especially when you add in Genie+ and the price increases.
 
mysto

mysto

Well-Known Member
TheMaxRebo said:
But is Disney ok with that? If attendance shrinks by 6% but each person is paying 20% more that is still a net positive for them (assuming expenses are up less than 20%)

Only real issue is if it drops by more than 20% or if the guests aren't spending as much per guest
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Who is "Disney" in that sentence? My guess is Bob will be OK no matter what. I don't think of shareholders as "Disney" as most fund holders have no idea they have it and most of the rest are the Disney family and Bob. Who again, will be fine.
 
Jrb1979

Jrb1979

Well-Known Member
TheMaxRebo said:
But is Disney ok with that? If attendance shrinks by 6% but each person is paying 20% more that is still a net positive for them (assuming expenses are up less than 20%)

Only real issue is if it drops by more than 20% or if the guests aren't spending as much per guest
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IMO as long as the parks keep making money I don't think they care that much. The board, shareholders and Iger come off as people that don't really understand the parks and don't care for them.
 
L

Lilofan

Well-Known Member
Jrb1979 said:
IMO as long as the parks keep making money I don't think they care that much. The board, shareholders and Iger come off as people that don't really understand the parks and don't care for them.
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Chapek knew how to wine and dine the shareholders when meeting with them at WDW. Shareholders stayed at the Four Seasons for lodging, meeting and activities. by Port Orleans. The Four Seasons makes the Grand Floridian look like a Sheraton.
 
RoadiJeff

RoadiJeff

Well-Known Member
Lilofan said:
Chapek knew how to wine and dine the shareholders when meeting with them at WDW. Shareholders stayed at the Four Seasons for lodging, meeting and activities. by Port Orleans. The Four Seasons makes the Grand Floridian look like a Sheraton.
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I've heard of it and it sounds like a nice place to stay but good grief.

four-seasons.jpg
 
TheMaxRebo

TheMaxRebo

Well-Known Member
mysto said:
Who is "Disney" in that sentence? My guess is Bob will be OK no matter what. I don't think of shareholders as "Disney" as most fund holders have no idea they have it and most of the rest are the Disney family and Bob. Who again, will be fine.
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Guess I mean the corporation mostly ... That from a corporate standpoint absolute attendance isn't the end all, be all

Though overcrowding was a big issue for guests, especially back in like 2019, so lower crowds, even at a higher cost, will be a positive to at least some guests
 
Dranth

Dranth

Well-Known Member
TheMaxRebo said:
Guess I mean the corporation mostly ... That from a corporate standpoint absolute attendance isn't the end all, be all

Though overcrowding was a big issue for guests, especially back in like 2019, so lower crowds, even at a higher cost, will be a positive to at least some guests
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I would be one of those guests.

My trips the last three years have been significantly better than the ones in 2017-2019. Personally, I will walk away due to crowds long before I will over costs but I also know I am lucky enough to be in a position to approach it that way.
 
D

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
AEfx said:
It's so funny when people act like the effect inflation has had on families has somehow been abated because that number has started to go back down.

It's like saying a runaway train has slightly lost speed - it's still a runaway train, it's just going to crash a few minutes later now.

Life is not easy, for many, and with all the instability everywhere, it doesn't look like it's getting any better.

The rampant inflation has had the most drastic affect on changing the habits of the very consumer that WDW depended on - the regular, yearly (or even more frequent) visitors who were middle class-ish families who could just afford their Disney habit. Food, gas, utilities have all skyrocketed, and not to mention housing - anyone who didn't have a fixed rate mortgage right now is really hurting (and of course renters are paying more than ever as well).

When people have half as much money and Disney now costs twice as much, it's just not a mystery.
Click to expand...
100%. The historic inflation didn't go away. The crazy price increases got baked in as the new baseline so the somewhat slowed inflation rate currently is still on top of the historic inflation. Wages didn't come close to increasing enough to offset the historic rate so real income is lower currently. The target audience for WDW is on a tighter budget today than they were in 2019 AND the price to visit WDW is significantly higher now.
 
SamusAranX

SamusAranX

Well-Known Member
lentesta said:
Disney already has a reputation for complexity. Adding ANOTHER way to wait in line would be farcical at this point. They've already got standby, Genie+, Individual Lightning Lane, Child Swap, DAS, and Virtual Queues.

Lightning Lane revenue has created a couple of problems within the company:
  • Wall Street has baked into its expectations the $100s of millions of LL revenue per year. That bucket starts out empty every quarter and has to be filled. Nobody in management is incented to take the hit that would happen if that revenue went away, because all of them are focused on this-quarter and this-fiscal-year management.

  • They can't bring down ILL rides like ROTR for the long-term maintenance they need, because that would cost the park $10s of millions in ILL by itself. Nobody from the park VP, to D'Amaro, to Iger, is going to take a $30MM hit in DHS revenue unless there's no other option. And the other option right now is "guest dissatisfaction is manageable."
They're already struggling with having no new rides beyond 2024, a huge competitor (which will bring some spillover guests), and a hostile state government in Florida. I think it's unlikely they make G+ free for anyone. It would be a huge capitulation.
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The bolded really frustrates me. Disney did this to themselves; a literal painting into a corner. RotR was an achievement and still can be but is already showing neglect
 
Jrb1979

Jrb1979

Well-Known Member
SamusAranX said:
Maybe it’s because I had a five year gap in holding passes, but how did WDW do this? I noticed no more free magic bands, but what else?
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One would be the stopping of selling APs. Another would be limiting reservations while resort guests and day ticketed guests had more availability during COVID. IMO the biggest one is still making AP holders have reservations come January while everyone else doesn't.
 
Jrb1979

Jrb1979

Well-Known Member
SamusAranX said:
The bolded really frustrates me. Disney did this to themselves; a literal painting into a corner. RotR was an achievement and still can be but is already showing neglect
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IMO a lot that goes back to what I said earlier, the board and Iger really don't understand the parks and I feel they look down on them. They just like the money they make.

@Dranth the previous paragraph is why I think Iger needs to go. IMO the CEO of Disney has to understand the parks and what they mean, not look down on them and think they are for Carnies.
 

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