Is attendance really down at WDW this or…

[Jrb1979]

So you leave the parks then. I think that's what people were talking about?

I took it as people opting to not go to the parks at all or only for a couple of hours. We would at least stay until mid afternoon. We won't leave earlier than 3 or 4.

 

[SamusAranX]

The new ticket indicates

1. Park attendance is softer than expected
2. They are trying to nudge people away from MK and HS to use "spare" capacity at the other two "half day" parks
3. They really want that rev per guest spending up; directing them to Epcot which, surprise, has a festival going on to generate more spending in the park.

 

[JMcMahonEsq]

I took it as people opting to not go to the parks at all or only for a couple of hours. We would at least stay until mid afternoon. We won't leave earlier than 3 or 4.

Why?

If people/kids are not having fun, why force it until an arbitrary 3-4 mid afternoon?

I mean if your family/kids don't ever melt down or want to leave until that time, that's great. But the idea that you have to stay at the park, in the face of people not having fun, I just don't get. I don't pay to go to Disney to not be in the parks either, but I also don't pay to go on vacation to not have fun either.

 

[flynnibus]

Not a troll, I just don't always trust Disney.

If touringplans say the posted wait times are correct. I trust them.

The topic is not if the wait times are correct - but the claim they are inflating them now to sell genie+ which is what you said.

Here

Today it seems to me that they are intentionally inflating the wait times to influence folks to buy Genie+ because the posted wait times today are nowhere near reality.

And touringplans did the analysis to answer that question and did not find a significant change in wait time accuracies from pre-genie and now with the paid options.

Like when you do a coin flip, sometimes in smaller samples it does not look like a 50/50 split, but when you use large samples, it is indeed a 50/50 split.

And that’s why the analysis done is more advanced than one person’s anecdotal observation.

 

[Disstevefan1]

The topic is not if the wait times are correct - but the claim they are inflating them now to sell genie+ which is what you said.

To clarify.

A someone posted that the posted wait time was far off from their actual wait time, their actual wait time was less.

Then I admittedly, suspected that Disney is intentionally inflating the posted waiting times. This is simply my lack of trust of Disney.

Then you corrected me and said that the data collected by Touringplans is accurate because they are actually in the queues and that the posted wait times are not intentionally inflated by Disney.

Then I just said that I will sometimes ignore the posted wait times, hoping to hit one of the times that the posted wait times are wrong like the poster said.

 

[flynnibus]

I give up. You can lead them to water…

Ignored

 

[Splash4eva]

All the time. At that point the $500 bucks is gone, you have already “thrown in away.” So your left with the choice of having a miserable hot day with kids melting down… or a happier family at the pool, in either case the $500 is already spent

I get it was “hotter” but you are going in to Orlando in July. What do you expect it to be. I went last summer for 1st time in God knows how long during that time. It was hot. Really hot but it was expected and temps being a little warmer shouldnt make people who are vacationing there change their plans completely imo.

 

[TheMaxRebo]

I took it as people opting to not go to the parks at all or only for a couple of hours. We would at least stay until mid afternoon. We won't leave earlier than 3 or 4.

So many side conversations so not sure what the specifics were but I do know a part of what may hav made the parks in July 3/4 look extra low was people leaving early after going in the morning as the heat was getting to them

Got numerous reports from CMs and others there that people there that did that/saw that ... So photos from mid afternoon may have looked extra "empty" even if # of people that scanned in at the turnstiles was "as low"

 

[erasure fan1]

The topic is not if the wait times are correct - but the claim they are inflating them now to sell genie+ which is what you said.

With my time in the parks last week, I did my own timing of the waits. Only one ride was on target, and it was still 10min less. I only timed the major rides and they all came in significantly shorter than posted. It still wasn't a short wait. As an example, rise had a posted 90min wait but it ended up about an hour. I know we were just a few fish in a very large ocean. But it sure has the appearance that they are inflating wait times. If it was once here or there, ok. But it was every major ride we did standby on in 3 parks over 4 days.

 

[flynnibus]

As an example, rise had a posted 90min wait but it ended up about an hour. I know we were just a few fish in a very large ocean. But it sure has the appearance that they are inflating wait times

They’ve always inflated wait times to a degree. That wasn’t the statement in question. it’s that they do it now to sell genie… and the data analysis concluded it’s no real difference now verse what was done before genie was a thing.

So if someone is trying to make make changes to make genie more attractive… they suck at it.

 

[MisterPenguin]

They’ve always inflated wait times to a degree. That wasn’t the statement in question. it’s that they do it now to sell genie… and the data analysis concluded it’s no real difference now verse what was done before genie was a thing.

So if someone is trying to make make changes to make genie more attractive… they suck at it.

It's a plot driven by Big Queue!

 

[celluloid]

Very telling that Epcot with the major additions to the park done and open/marketed. Festivals year round and they still included it in the deal.
If not for Galaxy's Edge and all the closures and reductions at full capacity we can make an educated figure that HS would be there as well.

 

[hopemax]

Touring Plans does well with the information they have, but being reliant on guest reported data, can introduce uncertainties. I've had a subscription post-Covid, and I am a data oriented, type person who should be counted on to submit data, but yet I didn't. I was annoyed at Disney (because the wait times were *very* wrong), trying to do too many things at once, and just tired. On the days where I was experiencing these very wrong wait times, I would check TP to see what other guests were saying (and not seeing any reports). I would check that Twitter account that lists ride up and down times. Plus, as they say, any number of sins can be hidden in averages. Which is what TP relies on. But me, as a guest, is dealing with very specific cross-sections at specific times for specific attractions.

I went back to review what TP said, and I found the report from November 2021, has there been a more recent one? Because that one actually says that wait times are *less* reliable for ILLs than they were pre-Genie. As the article says, "That means, on average, there is a lot more inflation of posted wait times at ILL attractions compared to when you couldn’t pay your way around the standby line." These are going to be the attractions guests will focus on, to develop their POV. TP concluded it wasn't always a huge change, but still went the wrong way for what guests expect. Look specifically at their example for SDMT. Pre-Genie posted 110, actual 60. Post-Genie, posted 130, actual 60. This is why people are making the conclusion that there is wait time inflation!

The issue I think we're having is that people don't always translate their explanation of why their emotions are valid into the right words. Then someone gets about the words, and the other person gets upset because they know their emotions are valid. The underlying emotion is a reaction to "Disney's wait times are unreliable." This is not a controversial position. Everyone knows ride reliability is down. Touring Plans has started focusing on it. LLs are already sold, which means the only thing Disney can do is adjust standby, negatively. I can't tell you how many times my Dad or me have gotten into queues with 70 minute posted waits that turned into 150 minute waits because something happened, and the LL people needed to be accommodated. Disney adjusts by trying to account for greater likelihood of downtimes, pushing the posted wait out for things like SDMT. And then if the ride doesn't experience a problem, they are wildly off the other way. So it's no wonder that the conclusion from TP was "less reliable."

It has turned into a big propaganda demonstration. Not the "come to my agenda" type of propaganda, but just throw so much crap around to the point where people don't believe anything at all. So for Disney guests this means that they don't believe any of the wait times because they may be severely overestimated, or severely underestimated and there is no reliable way to tell. So what the guest feels is enormous pressure to buy Genie and ILLs to avoid the pain of this roller coaster of uncertainty. Disney created all of this. Disney is responsible for the increase in breakdowns, they are responsible for the quantity of LL's sold. Disney is responsible for determining the buffer to add to posted wait times to account for potential breakdown which had the counter-intuitive effect of decreasing reliability.

So I have no problem with the position that Disney is inflating ride times to sell Genie. It's not as direct a step as it implies in words. There are the several steps in the middle about Disney accounting for their operational limitations. But the origination point (ride times are inflated post genie) and the end points (people buy more Genie and ILLs) are the same, and most importantly Disney is doing precious little to solve their operational limitations, leading to conclusions that these are features, not bugs. The best scams can be justified. So I guess I should be marked as a troll, and added to ignore lists as well.

ETA: TLDL flow chart

Disney operational limitations --> inflated wait times / inaccurate wait times --> more genie sales.

Guests legitimately see and feel the final two parts, but can't always conceptualize and vocalize the catalyst that led to the two-part outcome. That doesn't make them trolls.

 

[JMcMahonEsq]

Very telling that Epcot with the major additions to the park done and open/marketed. Festivals year round and they still included it in the deal.
If not for Galaxy's Edge and all the closures and reductions at full capacity we can make an educated figure that would be there as well.

Or because Epcot with its variety of adult leaning offerings like the world pavilions and all the drinking options, it makes sense to offer this to locals for some day drinking fun without the kids who will be back in school.

 

[networkpro]

The new ticket indicates

1. Park attendance is softer than expected
2. They are trying to nudge people away from MK and HS to use "spare" capacity at the other two "half day" parks
3. They really want that rev per guest spending up; directing them to Epcot which, surprise, has a festival going on to generate more spending in the park.

but HS is one of the two half day parks.

 

[celluloid]

Or because Epcot with its variety of adult leaning offerings like the world pavilions and all the drinking options, it makes sense to offer this to locals for some day drinking fun without the kids who will be back in school.

Locals don't go to World Showcase for learning over and over again. This is a pretty wide offer.
Festivals are there so you don't have to have offers like this. I
This offer is also based in visiting. Which means Disney wants people spending four days at their Four parks rather than many guests going "Let's do Magic Kingdom and the park with Star Wars and two days with Universal or go and visit Sea World for a day."
Disney is losing days three and four/beyondto guests visiting other places, and they don't like that.

 

[UNCgolf]

but HS is one of the two half day parks.

Yeah, there's a lot more to do at EPCOT than DHS, and at least for me personally, there's more to do at DAK too. DHS is still a half day park even with all the additions.

 

[TheMaxRebo]

Very telling that Epcot with the major additions to the park done and open/marketed. Festivals year round and they still included it in the deal.
If not for Galaxy's Edge and all the closures and reductions at full capacity we can make an educated figure that HS would be there as well.

EPCOT also just has the most capacity so even if same % full as other parks it would have most room for more people

Plus with Food and Wine that is something locals might spend extra $ on

 

[erasure fan1]

They’ve always inflated wait times to a degree. That wasn’t the statement in question. it’s that they do it now to sell genie… and the data analysis concluded it’s no real difference now verse what was done before genie was a thing.

So if someone is trying to make make changes to make genie more attractive… they suck at it.

I think it comes down to perception. I'm not sure people cared as much when fastpass didn't have a cost. Now when people go through a line that says 75min and it only takes 45/50min. It starts to make you wonder, since you are being constantly reminded of Genie plus. One time, you say awesome, that was great. But after your 3rd ride of significant difference, people start thinking they're being played.

I see what you are saying. The inflated wait times for standby were there before genie so it's not them doing it "to get more sales". And that might be true. But the reality is Disney is ok with it because it will lead to genie plus sales. And before that they would hope people would avoid the line and eat or shop. When you see 75 to 120min wait times across the park, like what we were seeing. You think hard about buying it, even if you are completely against it. I know we debated it seeing the waits before our first park day. But if we saw the actual wait times of 25 to 50min average, we wouldn't have even thought about it for a second.

 

[JMcMahonEsq]

Locals don't go to World Showcase for learning over and over again. This is a pretty wide offer.
Festivals are there so you don't have to have offers like this. I
This offer is also based in visiting. Which means Disney wants people spending four days at their Four parks rather than many guests going "Let's do Magic Kingdom and the park with Star Wars and two days with Universal or go and visit Sea World for a day."
Disney is losing days three and four/beyondto guests visiting other places, and they don't like that.

The offer targeted to Florida Residents only. They aren't targeting travelers/out of towners visiting the park.

Its a 2 day offer only and good for a split stay. They aren't targeting people who are looking to book 4+ day trips.

Its also only good starting today and going until the end of September. This ISN"T about capturing people looking to plan week+ long trinps.

This period is also right when kids start going back to school. So your eliminating most of your school age family members from this offer.

This has nothing to do with loosing guests to other parks, losing days 3 and 4, or any other type of long term strategic marketing campaign. This is a quick hit lets get some locals in drinking while the kids are going back to school.