I read a book about something called the Tipping Point. It's idea was that momentum slowly builds and then a tipping point is reached. Once this point is reached, it is almost impossible to go back.
Guest satisfaction is declining in the parks, but the tipping point has not been reached.
Our family's tipping point is very close. We have a lifetime of memories in the parks and we have been continuing to go because the parks remind us of the great times we had there. Our daughter has those memories and loves the parks. Quality had been declining for some time, but it wasn't until last August that we had had enough. Last August we had the worst trip we have ever had. We were hassled, especially at DHS, and we had a substandard and broken DVC SSR Room. The parks seemed boring, and we did not make any good memories. We are returning next month, primarily so that we can get some more use from our APs. If this trip is like the one last August, we won't go back. Our tipping point will have been reached. I can't imagine what Disney could do to get us to return.
If our tipping point has been reached, and we bought into OKW in 1993, then the same thing must be happening to other families. Our daughter had been planning on having her wedding at Disney and had looked forward to bringing her kids. Not any more. We don't mind paying a great deal if the experience is worth it. We feel that it no longer is.
If kids don't have a great time at Disney, they will not feel the necessity of bringing their kids to the parks and the cycle of grandparents, parents and kids in the parks will be broken. I don't believe that there is any longer an inexhaustible supply of middle class families to become first time and/or once in a lifetime visitors. When Disney loses its long time devotees, who will replace them?
I don't think that Disney has until 2017 or 2022 or whatever year to fix the parks. The thought that EPCOT can be left to disintegrate further while plans are announced, attractions designed and value engineered and something is finally build is folly. By the time the parks are fixed, the potential audience could be so reduced that the tipping point will have been reached.
EPCOT is in such bad shape that it needs to be fixed very quickly. I am not optimistic that anything will be done at all, let alone in a timely manner.