Because any wobble can change the surge drastically NHC keeps its advisory’s based on a landfall as wide as the cone so that people prepare for the worst
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However they do provide a more granular tool for the exact path they are currently predicting, after warning you that this forecast is not to be used for planning and to utilize the map I put above for it. If landfall happens in Bradenton this is what the surge in Tampa Bay looks like:
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There is a lot less red and mainly focused south of downtown. However if you move to Cape Coral/Ft Myers area:
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It looks catestrophic. Not pictured is Sarasota and points between the two bays that are also entirely red.