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Hurricane Milton coming to FL
- Thread starter Touchdown
- Start date
John park hopper
Well-Known Member
We have been have some big high tides in SC 2-4 ft on top of that we will have minor flooding. If you are correct it puts Milton on the left side of Orlando which is better (a little). Is Milton still expected to weaken prior to land fall
EricsBiscuit
Well-Known Member
If it does hit Bradenton, what would the storm surge in Tampa Bay look like?
Gringrinngghost
Well-Known Member
10-15ft.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Do what you can to stay safe in Florida…this is NOT one to dismiss (as Floridians tend to do)
EricsBiscuit
Well-Known Member
I thought if it makes landfall south of the bay then the storm surge would be less in the bay? Thanks
Which for the most part they haven’t this time, Tampa evacuated. The locals I ran into were scared, but there was a lot of tourists who were dismissing it, they are in for a rude shock later today and tomorrow, and most likely beyond that unfortunately.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Yeah…always loved the tourist attitude
“They get these all the time here…”
Ummmm….no….
Correct storm surge would be greatly reduced. It could actually pull water out of bay. https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/07/weather/video/hurricane-milton-tampa-warning-digvid
The track now has the giant storm surges hitting the Cape Coarl/Punta Gora/Ft Myers/ Sanibel area.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Exactly where they can’t take it…lovely
EricsBiscuit
Well-Known Member
I thought I saw an advisory from the local news here saying 10-15 fr. Perhaps that’s a warning for the worst case scenario.
This is a map from the SFWMD. Looks like the storm is still to the east of the track?
Ft Myers got destroyed by Ian when the Cat 4 hit the town.
Because any wobble can change the surge drastically NHC keeps its advisory’s based on a landfall as wide as the cone so that people prepare for the worst
However they do provide a more granular tool for the exact path they are currently predicting, after warning you that this forecast is not to be used for planning and to utilize the map I put above for it. If landfall happens in Bradenton this is what the surge in Tampa Bay looks like:
There is a lot less red and mainly focused south of downtown. However if you move to Cape Coral/Ft Myers area:
It looks catestrophic. Not pictured is Sarasota and points between the two bays that are also entirely red.
However they do provide a more granular tool for the exact path they are currently predicting, after warning you that this forecast is not to be used for planning and to utilize the map I put above for it. If landfall happens in Bradenton this is what the surge in Tampa Bay looks like:
There is a lot less red and mainly focused south of downtown. However if you move to Cape Coral/Ft Myers area:
It looks catestrophic. Not pictured is Sarasota and points between the two bays that are also entirely red.
EricsBiscuit
Well-Known Member
Thank you for sharing this. I think my business is safe from the storm surge (thank God) but seeing what those poor people down in Manatee are gonna go through has brought tears to my eyes. Praying for those down there. This is going to be rough.
Just know that map drastically changes every model run.
donsullivan
Premium Member
And people need to let go of the centerline obsession. It can impact the storm surge, but the storm could go anywhere in the cone that you see and given the enormous size of the storm, everyone in Central Florida is going to be impacted and potentially severely.
The local weather teams (and 20+ years living here has taught me who to trust as reliable) are describing this as possibly the most severe storm we've had in Central Florida in decades, if not ever.
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aprilibeth
Member
No luckily I would outpatient instead of in the hospital so I no longer have to stay but have many friends who have to. There are many high places in Pinellas county and even in those places many people chose to leave due to risk from wind.
My plane was met in Milwaukee by two local news stations yesterday who were trying to nab anyone (not wearing Disney or Universal logo shirts to avoid having to blur that out) for an interview about our escape.
John park hopper
Well-Known Member
Let's not forget the torrential rains to ground that is already saturated. Roof damage from wind and rain brings down the sheet rock in your house.