Hurricane Irma

[LAKid53]

But right now 95 & 75 are crawling, so it might actually be faster?

Probably. Many people may not know that 27 was how you got to Gainesville, Ocala, Orlando before I-75. Lots of small towns, logging trucks to get stuck behind. But only we old timers know how to get around the state prior to the days of 75, 95, 4, 10, and the Turnpike.

From driveway to the gate on Western Way, it's 4 hours - with two bathroom stops. Taking 27 instead adds a good 45 minutes. But it may be his best alternative to the parking lot 75 and 95 have become.

 

[invader]

Question. Do the colors correlated to the S-S scale?

Essentially. Deals with pressure. The lower the pressure the stronger. Strengthens & weakens through its time in the Atlantic. Makes LF as cat5, most likely would be a high 3 low 4 by the time it hits C. Fla. and continues to weaken its way up the state.

 

[LAKid53]

Yes, sort of, they are the storm pressures. Generally speaking the lower the pressure the more intense the storm is.

That I know. Just trying to correlate milibars to mph.

 

[Master Yoda]

@Master Yoda you would know better than me, but a pedestal building like that (Residential over garage) by me would be lightweight wood construction over poured reinforced concrete. Is that allowed in Florida? I know by me the only place that doesn't allow lightweight wood construction is NYC. If it is that thing would be torn apart by any sort major hurricane.

It all depends on where it is. There is nothing in the building code preventing wood construction, but it must meet the wind code for where it is located.

Where I am at in North Florida, it is quite common to see up to 3-4 story apartment buildings framed entirely from wood. However, the farther south you go, the higher the wind speed gets. As I understand it, once you get around central florida, it starts to become more financially attractive to go full block.

Wood construction holds up just fine under high winds providing is is clipped and held down correctly.

 

[LAKid53]

Essentially. Deals with pressure. The lower the pressure the stronger. Strengthens & weakens through its time in the Atlantic. Makes LF as cat5, most likely would be a high 3 low 4 by the time it hits C. Fla. and continues to weaken its way up the state.

So by the time she's in our neck of the woods, we're looking at Cat 2 winds?

 

[invader]

So by the time she's in our neck of the woods, we're looking at Cat 2 winds?

More than likely in the range of 50-70 mph gusts.

 

[LukeS7]

Update: Governor of Florida has ordered the highway patrol to escort oil tankers going south so that they can get as much fuel as possible to the stations http://cnn.it/2wMwNkL

 

[cosmicgirl]

That I know. Just trying to correlate milibars to mph.

You need a pressure difference to get a wind speed, one pressure isn't enough.
Simply put: the closer together the isobars (lines of equal pressure - the concentric circles) are, the higher the speed. This speed is then reinforced or reduced by the movement of the hurricane as a whole. That's why the western side is less bad than the eastern side.

 

[monothingie]

That I know. Just trying to correlate milibars to mph.

So there really is no direct correlation, as many things effect storm wind speeds. That's one of the major criticisms of the Saffir-Simpson scale. There have been several analysis done to determine a relationship, however it seems the relationship between wind and the storm intensity is primarily due to the sea surface temperature, which leads into the criticism of how effective the SS scale is a measure of storm strength. Of course with a storm this strong its all trivial really, this is a damn power storm.

**Edit: SS Scale only uses wind speed as the metric for storm intensity

 

[LAKid53]

More than likely in the range of 50-70 mph gusts.

Duck, I hope you're correct. I'd rather another Hermine (but without the stalled eyewall) than Kate.

 

[LAKid53]

So there really is no direct correlation, as many things effect storm wind speeds. That's one of the major criticisms of the Saffir-Simpson scale. There have been several analysis done to determine a relationship, however it seems the relationship between wind and the storm intensity is primarily due to the sea surface temperature, which leads into the criticism of how effective the SS scale is a measure of storm strength. Of course with a storm this strong its all trivial really, this is a damn power storm.

When they said the Gulf water temperatures were upper 80s, lower 90s, and went deep, my response was and

We had a barometer when living in Miami. My dad checked that thing religiously during storms, any kind of storm....

 

[MinnieWaffles]

Is Hurricane Jose likely to go into Florida?

 

[Andrew C]

Is Hurricane Jose likely to go into Florida?

Nope. Set to turn north into the Atlantic well before.

 

[LAKid53]

Is Hurricane Jose likely to go into Florida?

Hush, don't give it any ideas...

But based on the track so far, no. *fingers crossed*

 

[G8rchamps]

Is Hurricane Jose likely to go into Florida?

Nope, Trump won't let him in....

 

[MinnieWaffles]

Glad to hear it, 10 days from now we'll be almost there!

 

[LAKid53]

Nope, Trump won't let him in....

Better watch Mom doesn't get you.

Just figured out your screen name.....

 

[invader]

There's the old saying "don't live & die by one model" but....

on the 12z Euro Jose starts to go out into the atlantic, then loops and the model cuts off at about 7 days from now -- still being a decently powerful storm. Not sure where it could go after that.

 

[sudokujesus]

I'm now leaning towards canceling. It seems that we are probably getting to a threshold where even if Disney wants to be operational in borderline conditions, they probably won't be able to because of employees evacuating and a large percentage of reservations being canceled so it wouldn't make sense to open up the parks for 10-20% of the typical crowds.

...But if they are open and I cancel and find out I could have ridden Flight of Passage with no wait.. well, I'll be disappointed. But more important things in life. I guess.

 

[sudokujesus]

There's the old saying "don't live & die by one model" but....

on the 12z Euro Jose starts to out into the atlantic, then loops and the model cuts off at about 7 days from now. Not sure where it could go after that.

Jose will likely be further north than Irma, however, steering currents look like they may break down when it gets north of the greater antillies (Hispaniola, puerto rico) So it could turn out to sea, or it could resume a West/NW motion.