Hurricane Irma

[21stamps]

It's just that it looks like Disney might take a direct hit?

Where do you live in PBC?

Here's how I would look at it-

In Orlando-
You are in a wider part of the state.
You are inland.
You will be at a place that will be manageable to get around.
You will not have to deal with driving around debris/downed power lines/uprooted trees.
You will most likely have water.
You will be around more people.

As a former PBC resident, I would choose Disney all day long based on the current forecast.

Weigh your pros and cons. Good luck with your decision

 

[Ziggie]

Please understand that NO ONE on this thread has any idea of what could happen as this is the most powerful hurricane ever recorded to form in the Atlantic Ocean. Most likely you will be safe but people need to make the best decision for themselves and their family. Please do not use the advice of anyone on here including me.

Best advice, its always better to be over prepared than under prepared. Whats the worse that can happen if you over prepare?

But it isn't that easy, sadly. Look at Florida.. where would you go? There is no where to go.

 

[Ziggie]

Where do you live in PBC?

Here's how I would look at it-

In Orlando-
You are in a wider part of the state.
You are inland.
You will be at a place that will be manageable to get around.
You will not have to deal with driving around debris/downed power lines/uprooted trees.
You will most likely have water.
You will be around more people.

Palm Beach County, 9 miles inland from the ocean's shore. All of your points are very well stated.

 

[Horizons '83]

It's just that it looks like Disney might take a direct hit?

Really though Disney could never take a direct hit per say since its not on the coastline but like every other city in Florida right now, its possible it gets a large portion of this storm but again, we will have to keep up with the updates (which this thread does wonderfully).

 

[KBLovedDisney]

But it isn't that easy, sadly. Look at Florida.. where would you go? There is no where to go.

If you don't plan on evacuating within the available time frame, and it gets to the point where you don't have an option? Have supplies ready. I would suggest going ahead and getting them: water, generator, extra food, batteries, etc.

Not sure what you would do in Florida, but possibly board up windows?

 

[drizgirl]

Disney will be safe.

You can't promise anyone that.

 

[HorseFly]

For what it's worth, models have trended a decent bit east over the last 18 hours or so. Most now keep it offshore from Florida. Similar to Matthew's track.

Right now, South Carolina looks to take the worst of it as a strong 3 or 4, but that could easily shift back to the west as we are still several days away.

Last night, we were certain we were going to call to reschedule our trip, but these line models have given me some hope again. We check in Friday and they told me yesterday we had until 11pm tonight to cancel for a refund. Does anyone know if that 2 day out policy also applies to rescheduling? I haven't been able to get an answer online and I imagine their phone lines are chaos. We'd like to wait until tomorrow afternoon when the models are a bit more stable to make the decision. I realize the weather is not their problem to make exceptions, but it seems to me they would rather me wait a day and maybe show up, then reschedule for later for no reason.

 

[Horizons '83]

But it isn't that easy, sadly. Look at Florida.. where would you go? There is no where to go.

Go to the West side of Georgia, there is always a place to go. The time is now though, not in 2 days.

 

[21stamps]

Palm Beach County, 9 miles inland from the ocean's shore. All of your points are very well stated.

I can tell you this, if I would have had WDW reservations when Wilma was projected to hit us, there is no possible way that I would have stayed home and dealt with the aftermath.

 

[Ziggie]

If you don't plan on evacuating within the available time frame, and it gets to the point where you don't have an option? Have supplies ready. I would suggest going ahead and getting them: water, generator, extra food, batteries, etc.

Not sure what you would do in Florida, but possibly board up windows?

The house is half boarded right now with the rest of it being completed this afternoon. We have batteries, water, etc.. as I mentioned, we've been through a few hurricanes before. But this one just rattles me Food, generators, extra water are all sold out.

 

[21stamps]

You can't promise anyone that.

No, he can't, but it's probably a safe bet that Disney will be more safe than many areas in South Florida.

 

[larryz]

Quite frankly, the only really good solution is hurricane shutters. Not cheap and a pain to put up and take down. Spent many a week or two after a storm was predicted to hit Miami waiting for my dad to take down the shutters.

One of the best solutions I saw was the use of motorized metal roll up shutters. The total cost was nearly double that of impact glass, but all the homeowner had to do was turn a key and every window and door would be covered. Not only did it work great for storms, but it made the house a fortress when they left for any length of time.

This is the way to go if you can afford it.

 

[sudokujesus]

Please understand that NO ONE on this thread has any idea of what could happen as this is the most powerful hurricane ever recorded to form in the Atlantic Ocean. Most likely you will be safe but people need to make the best decision for themselves and their family. Please do not use the advice of anyone on here including me.

Eh, actually we have a pretty good idea of what this storm would do at Disney World, and really, it isn't THAT bad (from a catastrophe standpoint; clearly it can ruin a 3 day weekend at WDW). The worst cast scenario for Disney would be the track shifts west, it makes it into the Gulf and then turns north into the peninsula around Sarasota or Tampa. That would put Orlando on the bad side of the storm and give it less time to weaken over land before the core of the storm arrived. However, this scenario is pretty unlikely given model output at the moment.

A much more likely scenarios are this thing comes in due south of Orlando in Monroe or Dade county and tracks north up the peninsula, weakening for 8+ hours before the core hits Orlando. Perhaps even a more likely scenario is the storm rides up the east coast of the state or just offshore like Matthew. In this situation, it is entirely possible WDW would never see hurricane force winds.

While these scenarios would make it a bad day to film a commercial for Disney World, structural damage would be largely minimal, especially to well-built structures... which I feel pretty confident that Disney's hotels are.


tl; dr: Both Palm Beach and Orlando may make out okay, but Palm Beach definitely has a higher risk of being devastated. Evacuating from Palm Beach to Orlando makes a lot of sense, even if you aren't planning a WDW trip.

 

[LAKid53]

These models are getting me more nervous...
Would any of this affect a Tuesday flight..?

(Stay safe everyone!!)

Why would you want to? You'll be visiting the day after the most powerful Atlantic hurricane hits Florida. Wherever this thing hits, it's going to be devastating. No power, roads full of debris, flooding, limited supplies of food, water gas. We don't want you. We want first responders and utility crews....

Seriously consider changing your plans.

 

[wdwmagic]

Aerophile suspending operations from today ahead of possible impacts from Hurricane Irma

 

[21stamps]

Eh, actually we have a pretty good idea of what this storm would do at Disney World, and really, it isn't THAT bad (from a catastrophe standpoint; clearly it can ruin a 3 day weekend at WDW). The worst cast scenario for Disney would be the track shifts west, it makes it into the Gulf and then turns north into the peninsula around Sarasota or Tampa. That would put Orlando on the bad side of the storm and give it less time to weaken over land before the core of the storm arrived. However, this scenario is pretty unlikely given model output at the moment.

A much more likely scenarios are this thing comes in due south of Orlando in Monroe or Dade county and tracks north up the peninsula, weakening for 8+ hours before the core hits Orlando. Perhaps even a more likely scenario is the storm rides up the east coast of the state or just offshore like Matthew. In this situation, it is entirely possible WDW would never see hurricane force winds.

While these scenarios would make it a bad day to film a commercial for Disney World, structural damage would be largely minimal, especially to well-built structures... which I feel pretty confident that Disney's hotels are.


tl; dr: Both Palm Beach and Orlando may make out okay, but Palm Beach definitely has a higher risk of being devastated. Evacuating from Palm Beach to Orlando makes a lot of sense, even if you aren't planning a WDW trip.

Exactly. People from the south are trying to get rooms in Orlando now.

 

[Ziggie]

Go to the West side of Georgia, there is always a place to go. The time is now though, not in 2 days.

I've been checking west coast Georgia hotels for 2 days.. I can't find any availability. And if you drive too far, it makes it very hard to get back (downed trees, flooding, no gas).

I can tell you this, if I would have had WDW reservations when Wilma was projected to hit us, there is no possible way that I would have stayed home and dealt with the aftermath.

I can understand that 21stamps, honestly I can.

 

[Prince-1]

Eh, actually we have a pretty good idea of what this storm would do at Disney World, and really, it isn't THAT bad (from a catastrophe standpoint; clearly it can ruin a 3 day weekend at WDW). The worst cast scenario for Disney would be the track shifts west, it makes it into the Gulf and then turns north into the peninsula around Sarasota or Tampa. That would put Orlando on the bad side of the storm and give it less time to weaken over land before the core of the storm arrived. However, this scenario is pretty unlikely given model output at the moment.

A much more likely scenarios are this thing comes in due south of Orlando in Monroe or Dade county and tracks north up the peninsula, weakening for 8+ hours before the core hits Orlando. Perhaps even a more likely scenario is the storm rides up the east coast of the state or just offshore like Matthew. In this situation, it is entirely possible WDW would never see hurricane force winds.

While these scenarios would make it a bad day to film a commercial for Disney World, structural damage would be largely minimal, especially to well-built structures... which I feel pretty confident that Disney's hotels are.


tl; dr: Both Palm Beach and Orlando may make out okay, but Palm Beach definitely has a higher risk of being devastated. Evacuating from Palm Beach to Orlando makes a lot of sense, even if you aren't planning a WDW trip.

No you do not have a pretty good idea...you are assuming you do. Once again, I am also assuming that it will not be that bad overall but hurricanes are unpredictable and as Irma is an unprecedented Cat 5 there is no guarantees to what will happen.

 

[21stamps]

No you do not have a pretty good idea...you are assuming you do. Once again, I am also assuming that it will not be that bad overall but hurricanes are unpredictable and as Irma is an unprecedented Cat 5 there is no guarantees to what will happen.

@Ziggie lives 9 miles from the ocean. In South Florida.

Even if the eye stays East and out to sea.. the coast will still be impacted. Orlando is much less risk from Storm Surges and High Winds if that were to happen.

 

[Prince-1]

But it isn't that easy, sadly. Look at Florida.. where would you go? There is no where to go.

As Irma is not supposed to hit for another few days you have time to decide what is best for you. If I was going to give any advice to someone who wanted to completely avoid it I would head north out of the state. Again, Central Florida is probably going to be relatively safe but this is a beast of a storm.