JohnD
Well-Known Member
I didn’t advise her to do anything. But it is tracking west.I’d advise you get your weather from the NWS…or Cecily Tynan…
Not we quacks here
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Hurricane Ian expected to impact Florida (updates and related discussions)
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It’s been said in other ways but I’ll say it more plainly, the only thing you should use to predict this thing is the NHC maps. And you need to read them the right way for instance the map we’ve all been using:
That is a map predicting where the eye will go, anywhere that is in the cone is a possible place for it but not being in the cone does not mean you’re safe. This storm is going to be massive and hurricane force winds as well as storms will extend for miles. To prove my point here is the map predicting probability of tropical storm winds and a map of when they will arrive:
If you want the short and sweet version of what NHC is saying here it is:
I’m not a meteorologist, my brother is, but he studied tornados and no has a non meteorological job. He just shares with me all the good storm chaser sites. The only thing that matters however is what the NHC says and your local govt.
That is a map predicting where the eye will go, anywhere that is in the cone is a possible place for it but not being in the cone does not mean you’re safe. This storm is going to be massive and hurricane force winds as well as storms will extend for miles. To prove my point here is the map predicting probability of tropical storm winds and a map of when they will arrive:
If you want the short and sweet version of what NHC is saying here it is:
I’m not a meteorologist, my brother is, but he studied tornados and no has a non meteorological job. He just shares with me all the good storm chaser sites. The only thing that matters however is what the NHC says and your local govt.
JohnD
Well-Known Member
Even the NHC map shows it tracking westward. Two days ago early tracks had the center of the cone around Ft. Myers, understanding it could track on either side of the cone. It’s called the Cone of Uncertainty for a reason. Yesterday the center of the cone was around Tampa. Today, it’s north of Tampa. The forecasts have it tracking westward which means less straight on to WDW but a greater threat to the panhandle because in the Gulf longer. I understand that it now puts WDW in the NE side of it, so winds may be greater. We’ll just have to see if forecasts continue showing it tracking toward the west.
Oh I agree completely, and that wasn’t directed at you, but some people seemed to be running away with our chit-chat a little too much. If it keeps on the trend it’s on I’m probably going to fly in on Tuesday as planned, knowing the parks will likely be closed some part (if not all) of Wednesday and Thursday, but I would like to see it tick more west to be comfortable with that decision.
Gringrinngghost
Well-Known Member
This is more akin to mine, sprinkled in with alot of Oingo Boingo
The 12Z GFS model has the storm at 108 hours out about 300mi of shore and if it keeps the same path in this model run set, landfall near Mobile, AL.. We really need NOAA49 up but they aren't due to get wheels up until1:30PM Eastern.
Good News, I am a meteorologist.Not we quacks here
Gringrinngghost
Well-Known Member
Should really give it some slack for anything before yesterday as the system hadn’t even formed yet prior to that.
JohnD
Well-Known Member
Sure. Looking better for WDW. Less so for Tallahassee. Good thing I’m not there now. I’m with folks in Jacksonville. I’m leaning on going tomorrow anyway and holing up in my resort on Wed. It’s was awaits me when I return to Tallahassee after my vacation and the storm that concerns me.
There are videos of MK Main Street looking like a flowing river after a rainstorm. Can’t imagine what it will look like when 8-12 inches of rain and a storm comes on Wed Thu. One weather event theme parks cannot handle is huge amounts of rain. A number of the streets get flooded more than ankle deep.
JohnD
Well-Known Member
Here’s the Executive Order
Mine was $880. Some of my neighbors have basements - although they are damp to wet and they need a pump to keep them dry. We are the "high" ground of the neighborhood; houses downhill have had minor flooding. The house is 100+ years old so has survived a few hurricanes. Big trees falling rather than flooding are the issue, although most of them have already been destroyed over the years. My mostly shady yard now has many spots with all day sun, so for the first time I have an area where I can grow herbs.
PARADISE11818
New Member
I'm arriving the night of Oct 2nd.............Woo hoo!
We arrive at WDW on Saturday the 1st.
Charley entered SW FL as a Cat 4 in 2004 then went up to Orlando Kissimmee as a Cat 1 with wind gusts of 105mph that wrecked parts of the cities. Imagine if a Cat 2 goes through Central FL. It would be worse.Honestly….cause you don’t read very well
I said in a post upthread that 2004 was the EXCEPTION
Hurricane charley - in particular - picked up speed and strength just before crossing the gulf coast. That’s how storms damage central Florida…they have to move fast.
If they’re not cooking…they loose a lot of the umph by Polk county.
Just like Andy…wasn’t supposed to be a big deal, but turned on the afterburners and was tight as a drum ripping through the Everglades
I’m not suggested anyone go play in the pool during it…but don’t scare the Brits. It’s been a tough month for them.
Chomama
Well-Known Member
Do you know what time that comes out? Thx!
lazyboy97o
Well-Known Member
Now that there are active Watches and Warnings, updates are provided every three hours (2:00, 5:00, 8:00, 11:00).