Hurricane Ian expected to impact Florida (updates and related discussions)

T

Touchdown

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
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No change
 
Sirwalterraleigh

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
JohnD said:
Even the NHC map shows it tracking westward. Two days ago early tracks had the center of the cone around Ft. Myers, understanding it could track on either side of the cone. It’s called the Cone of Uncertainty for a reason. Yesterday the center of the cone was around Tampa. Today, it’s north of Tampa. The forecasts have it tracking westward which means less straight on to WDW but a greater threat to the panhandle because in the Gulf longer. I understand that it now puts WDW in the NE side of it, so winds may be greater. We’ll just have to see if forecasts continue showing it tracking toward the west.
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…probably best not to downplay it based on your own plans?

I don’t think anyone should be “afraid”…as probability is Orlando is fine. But I would also not tell anyone not to think about it either.

Been a long cruise, sailor?…”magic” withdrawal? 🤔
 
JohnD

JohnD

Well-Known Member
Sirwalterraleigh said:
…probably best not to downplay it based on your own plans?

I don’t think anyone should be “afraid”…as probability is Orlando is fine. But I would also not tell anyone not to think about it either.

Been a long cruise, sailor?…”magic” withdrawal? 🤔
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WTH? “Sailor”? “Magic withdrawal?” I didn’t tell anyone not to think about it nor to downplay a hurricane. What is it with you anyway? Are you the perpetual curmudgeon? I’m stating a fact. It’s tracking westward. Meteorologists are saying that. What do you want me to say, “OMG! We’re all going to die!” That wouldn’t be downplaying it. Rather than factually stating the obvious, it would be working people into a frenzy.
 
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Sirwalterraleigh

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
JohnD said:
WTH? “Sailor”? “Magic withdrawal?” I didn’t tell anyone not to think about it nor to downplay a hurricane. What is it with you anyway? Are you the perpetual curmudgeon? I’m stating a fact. It’s tracking westward. Meteorologists are saying that. What do you want me to say, “OMG! We’re all going to die!” That wouldn’t be downplaying it. Rather than factually stating the obvious, it would be working people into a frenzy.
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I’m just watching you contradict everything TD says…and both viewpoints are reasonable.

You’re going more definitive than “you never know?”

One is less warranted as it stands.

NHC doesn’t seem to jive with you at 10:20 EST. That could change.

Something else?
 
W

wutisgood

Well-Known Member
well if I get in given the track and the parks are closed Thursday I am definitely cancelling any other plans if the parks are open Friday.
 
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fathomsbelow7

New Member
The path is still moving west and I know we won’t know for sure where it’s heading. However, my main concern is gas. I’ll be driving overnight and arriving in Orlando Thursday morning for a MNSSHP on Friday. I’m just afraid that I’m going to get down there and gas will be limited and no way home. This uncertainty sucks.
 
JohnD

JohnD

Well-Known Member
Sirwalterraleigh said:
I’m just watching you contradict everything TD says…and both viewpoints are reasonable.

You’re going more definitive than “you never know?”

One is less warranted as it stands.

NHC doesn’t seem to jive with you at 10:20 EST. That could change.

Something else?
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Still westward and almost another Hermine to make landfall near Tallahassee if not for another storm in the east Atlantic that formed as a TS before this one. So I’ve been “consistent” with NHC. Don’t know what you’re seeing.

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JohnD

JohnD

Well-Known Member
Touchdown said:
I don’t think he’s contradicting me. Besides him being in Orlando looks like a safer move now then staying home. Latest track takes it very close to Tallahassee.
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Agreed. Almost another repeat of Hermine from 2016, including landfall as a Cat 1 hopefully, thank God, instead of a much stronger storm. (Still projected to be a Cat 4 in the open Gulf first.) Will still disrupt the area. Power will probably be down for about a week there due to trees everywhere causing downed power lines. I’m keeping my trip and rolling with the punches at WDW. Will still be blustery weather there no doubt later in the week. But I’ll be returning to a mess in the Big Bend on Sat.

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T

Touchdown

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
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It’s begun it’s turn, now moving WNW. By the end of the day today that cone is finally going to narrow and the models should start to align, one way or another.

Edit: Per the NHC discussion where exactly the center of circulation is continues to be difficult to find as the center hasn’t stacked yet. This should also happen sometime soon that will aid in pinpointing a track.
 
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JohnD

JohnD

Well-Known Member
Touchdown said:
View attachment 668965
It’s begun it’s turn, now moving WNW. By the end of the day today that cone is finally going to narrow and the models should start to align, one way or another.

Edit: Per the NHC discussion where exactly the center of circulation is continues to be difficult to find as the center hasn’t stacked yet. This should also happen sometime soon that will aid in pinpointing a track.
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I like looking at a map from Channel 4 in Jax that shows the potential Cat ranking. Now it shows it weakening to Cat 3 before making Landfall as a Cat 1 somewhere within the cone but centered on Tallahassee area currently. Hope it stays that way. The Big Bend doesn’t need another Hurricane Michael.

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L

Lilofan

Well-Known Member
fathomsbelow7 said:
The path is still moving west and I know we won’t know for sure where it’s heading. However, my main concern is gas. I’ll be driving overnight and arriving in Orlando Thursday morning for a MNSSHP on Friday. I’m just afraid that I’m going to get down there and gas will be limited and no way home. This uncertainty sucks.
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Trying to get gas will be a challenge. When gas pumps run dry because all are lining up filling up their car prior to hurricane , it may take several days for trucks to refill the stations with gas. If there are power outages then gas pumps will not work. You still want to drive in this mess of a storm? Good luck to you.
 
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Afterthought

Afterthought

Member
A little too soon to know for sure, but it's looking like heading down to Miami, Ft Lauderdale, the Keys, etc could be a less stressful and less crowded option for many in central Florida. If the mad rush of evacuees heads north and those southern areas are clear, it would make sense.
 
T

Touchdown

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
While GFS has stayed with landing on the panhandle, most other models have this hitting Tampa directly now (or just north of there) which would be about the worst case scenario for the Orlando area. Stay tuned, next adjustment to track (11 am) may move, but there will be new model runs before that and hopefully the plane in the air currently will find center. Like I said, today is likely is the day the die is cast on where this thing will hit. Forecasts get more precise 3 days out, and by the end of the day, we will be less then 3 days out for when the storm will at the same latitude as Tampa.
 

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