Harry Potter IS making a difference!!

[misterID]

I really hope this ends all the "HP will bring more attendance to WDW!! Disney win-wins, UNI loses!!! Wooo!" that pop up every HP thread.

 

[Thrill]

this CAN HAPPEN TO DISNEY.. and if they continue on their current path,

IT WILL HAPPEN TO WALT DISNEY WORLD.

I believe it almost did about 25 years ago, too. Granted, the company was worth a fraction of what it is today (no ABC, no ESPN, only WDW and DLR, both half of their current sizes, no interactive division, and so on). To be totally honest, I am not too confident in Disney's future. They're safe for a few years, but it looks like the movie division isn't really improving, and the parks and resorts division is in danger and is putting more risks out (Shanghai). Disney Interactive has a terrible business plan, in my opinion, and it's only getting worse by focusing on social games, which I believe is only a bubble. Disney Channel might have problems in the near future (maybe it's just wishful thinking), as well. ESPN and ABC, and maybe Disneyland (granted they don't have another few years of poor management), are really the only areas that I'd count as safe. That's not to say that A. They are capable of picking up poor numbers from the rest of the company, B. They won't be sold, or C. WDW won't be closed. It can happen. Disney needs to start making changes now, otherwise they will need to put out big bucks (more than DCA expansion money) to fix the problems at WDW, all at once.

 

[MarkTwain]

I believe it almost did about 25 years ago, too. Granted, the company was worth a fraction of what it is today (no ABC, no ESPN, only WDW and DLR, both half of their current sizes, no interactive division, and so on). To be totally honest, I am not too confident in Disney's future. They're safe for a few years, but it looks like the movie division isn't really improving, and the parks and resorts division is in danger and is putting more risks out (Shanghai). Disney Interactive has a terrible business plan, in my opinion, and it's only getting worse by focusing on social games, which I believe is only a bubble. Disney Channel might have problems in the near future (maybe it's just wishful thinking), as well. ESPN and ABC, and maybe Disneyland (granted they don't have another few years of poor management), are really the only areas that I'd count as safe. That's not to say that A. They are capable of picking up poor numbers from the rest of the company, B. They won't be sold, or C. WDW won't be closed. It can happen. Disney needs to start making changes now, otherwise they will need to put out big bucks (more than DCA expansion money) to fix the problems at WDW, all at once.

Keep in mind that each segment of the Disney company is run like a separate company, with each independently keeping track of its finances and operating from its own budget. That also goes for each of the Disney resorts around the globe, as much as Disney may try to cover it up by combining Disneyland's booming success and WDW's stagnation into a single, more positive-looking quarterly report. That matters a lot - that means if WDW does start failing financially, it will capture the attention of the big boys running the company in Burbank, because they don't want any segment of the company to lose money. And hopefully, they would be willing to do the big spending (like they've done for Hong Kong and Shanghai) on WDW that TDO currently seems unwilling to do for themselves.

I may have the wrong impression, though; my knowledge of the internal workings of the Disney company is somewhat limited.

 

[misterID]

Keep in mind that each segment of the Disney company is run like a separate company, with each independently keeping track of its finances and operating from its own budget. That also goes for each of the Disney resorts around the globe, as much as Disney may try to cover it up by combining Disneyland's booming success and WDW's stagnation into a single, more positive-looking quarterly report. That matters a lot - that means if WDW does start failing financially, it will capture the attention of the big boys running the company in Burbank, because they don't want any segment of the company to lose money. And hopefully, they would be willing to do the big spending (like they've done for Hong Kong and Shanghai) on WDW that TDO currently seems unwilling to do for themselves.

I may have the wrong impression, though; my knowledge of the internal workings of the Disney company is somewhat limited.

Good post. I'm sure Disney isn't going to let themselves fail, or allow departments to fail. Heads would roll first and major shake ups would happen. Literally, jobs are on the line with Shanghai and Hong Kong if they don't succeed.

I really hope UNI/IOA doesn't let up.

 

[Wilt Dasney]

That's not to say that ... WDW won't be closed.

This sounds like a seriously overblown extrapolation of any problems Disney might have to me, but just for argument's sake:

I have a feeling you'd see a massive intervention by governments of the surrounding communities and the state of Florida before WDW was allowed to even consider going under. Even with all the tax breaks Disney has been able to carve out for itself, it's such a massive economic engine for the area that Orlando would be devastated by its loss.

 

[Monty]

I wouldn't worry.

If I'm any example, Disney has absolutely nothing to worry about. Yes I went to WWOHP. I added a week to my normal one-week August stay and spent five days at Universal. I really liked WWOHP and I don't regret going, but there simply wasn't enough in the rest of the two parks that interested me enough to renew the Premium Passes we got or buy short-stay tickets to go back. Been there, done that, not going back.

My Universal adventure didn't lose Disney a dime. I stayed 13 nights instead of 7 on property, went to Disney more than I would have had I not extended my stay for WWOHP and still spent easily as much in Disney stores.

So how many of the increase in Universal's attendance are like me?

Disney's overall attendance didn't go down...

 

[DTM93]

EDIT: Nevermind, read it wrong, sorry!

 

[Krack]

I wouldn't worry.

If I'm any example, Disney has absolutely nothing to worry about. Yes I went to WWOHP. I added a week to my normal one-week August stay and spent five days at Universal. I really liked WWOHP and I don't regret going, but there simply wasn't enough in the rest of the two parks that interested me enough to renew the Premium Passes we got or buy short-stay tickets to go back. Been there, done that, not going back.

My Universal adventure didn't lose Disney a dime. I stayed 13 nights instead of 7 on property, went to Disney more than I would have had I not extended my stay for WWOHP and still spent easily as much in Disney stores.

So how many of the increase in Universal's attendance are like me?

Disney's overall attendance didn't go down...

My guess is you're not the ones Disney is worried about (for precisely the reason you posted - your Disney attendance didn't go down). If I had to guess, I would say that the ones that have Disney concerned are the typical family of four who would spend a week at a WDW moderate and 7 days at the parks who, instead, decides it wants to (or even worse, must) spend a day at Universal. Here's why ...

Once a family decides it will be spending a day at Universal, now it must find a way to get there; the most obvious method is by renting a car. Once a family makes a decision to rent a car, it no longer needs to stay on property - these families can (and will) learn that they can stay off-site for $100 a day less and in many instances, the rooms are nicer. Plus, they now get to avoid the Disney transportation system (which used to be Shangri-la, but now is often a tedious and time consuming experience anytime you get near a bus). Further, once you have decided to rent a car, you are no longer tethered to WDW each day. If you decide you want to spend the $700 bucks you just saved on hotel rooms to have your family swim with dolphins one day at Discovery Cove ... it's no longer a PITA; all it happens to be is a short drive.

WDW's entire business model for the last two decades has been focused on trapping families with small children on-site (Magical Express, plenty of hotel options, DDP, bus system). They want you in their hotels and they don't want you to have a rental car - once a family moves its base of operation off-site, Disney's profit from that family declines astronomically.

Disney's greatest fear is that Potterland convinces people to rent a car and stay off-site because it opens up hundreds of more options to that particular family.

Now, I happen to believe Potterland isn't even close to enough to make this happen. But if it's the start of Universal getting a few more valuable licenses and making it's parks "must see", it could happen. Disney isn't bulletproof.

 

[Ignohippo]

My guess is you're not the ones Disney is worried about (for precisely the reason you posted - your Disney attendance didn't go down). If I had to guess, I would say that the ones that have Disney concerned are the typical family of four who would spend a week at a WDW moderate and 7 days at the parks who, instead, decides it wants to (or even worse, must) spend a day at Universal. Here's why ...

Once a family decides it will be spending a day at Universal, now it must find a way to get there; the most obvious method is by renting a car. Once a family makes a decision to rent a car, it no longer needs to stay on property - these families can (and will) learn that they can stay off-site for $100 a day less and in many instances, the rooms are nicer. Plus, they now get to avoid the Disney transportation system (which used to be Shangri-la, but now is often a tedious and time consuming experience anytime you get near a bus). Further, once you have decided to rent a car, you are no longer tethered to WDW each day. If you decide you want to spend the $700 bucks you just saved on hotel rooms to have your family swim with dolphins one day at Discovery Cove ... it's no longer a PITA; all it happens to be is a short drive.

WDW's entire business model for the last two decades has been focused on trapping families with small children on-site (Magical Express, plenty of hotel options, DDP, bus system). They want you in their hotels and they don't want you to have a rental car - once a family moves its base of operation off-site, Disney's profit from that family declines astronomically.

Disney's greatest fear is that Potterland convinces people to rent a car and stay off-site because it opens up hundreds of more options to that particular family.

Now, I happen to believe Potterland isn't even close to enough to make this happen. But if it's the start of Universal getting a few more valuable licenses and making it's parks "must see", it could happen. Disney isn't bulletproof.

Awesome post.

 

[Thrill]

Disney's overall attendance didn't go down...

I thought domestic attendance dropped, despite an increase at DLR. And it's not a problem with tourism to Florida, as Universal saw a massive increase in revenue.

 

[Thrill]

This sounds like a seriously overblown extrapolation of any problems Disney might have to me

And it is. I'm just showing that it's possible. It's certainly not probable, especially considering it would take considerable measures to aggravate the existing issues, and they probably wouldn't happen all at once, meaning that there is more than enough time to correct them.

Keep in mind that each segment of the Disney company is run like a separate company, with each independently keeping track of its finances and operating from its own budget. That also goes for each of the Disney resorts around the globe, as much as Disney may try to cover it up by combining Disneyland's booming success and WDW's stagnation into a single, more positive-looking quarterly report. That matters a lot - that means if WDW does start failing financially, it will capture the attention of the big boys running the company in Burbank, because they don't want any segment of the company to lose money. And hopefully, they would be willing to do the big spending (like they've done for Hong Kong and Shanghai) on WDW that TDO currently seems unwilling to do for themselves.

I may have the wrong impression, though; my knowledge of the internal workings of the Disney company is somewhat limited.

This is the case, as far as I know. It's just that it very well could be that corporate doesn't do anything until the consequences show, and then it's going to be big spending, little income for a few years (at least at WDW) unless FLE is the beginning of some well-deserved, much needed repairs at WDW.

 

[Wilt Dasney]

I thought domestic attendance dropped, despite an increase at DLR.

Disney won't say whether WDW attendance went up or down, only that it was close to last year's. Jason Garcia (OS reporter) concluded that WDW attendance dropped based on some other metrics the paper was able to find.

I'm thinking Monty's reference was more to the fact that WDW's attendance was basically flat, regardless of whether the actual number went up or down.

 

[fosse76]

I wouldn't worry.

If I'm any example, Disney has absolutely nothing to worry about. Yes I went to WWOHP. I added a week to my normal one-week August stay and spent five days at Universal. I really liked WWOHP and I don't regret going, but there simply wasn't enough in the rest of the two parks that interested me enough to renew the Premium Passes we got or buy short-stay tickets to go back. Been there, done that, not going back.

My Universal adventure didn't lose Disney a dime. I stayed 13 nights instead of 7 on property, went to Disney more than I would have had I not extended my stay for WWOHP and still spent easily as much in Disney stores.

So how many of the increase in Universal's attendance are like me?

Very few. I love how some people on this site cite their own experiences and opinions as the norm. The vast majority of travelers will not expand their vacations...they'll take a day away. Some will add a day. But for most families, vacation budgets are pre-set...so if they add a day they reduce the amount of money they will spend at Disney. I think many people on this board overestimate how much time people on Disney vacations actually spend at Disney parks. I remember reading that the average guest only stays for four days. Simply looking at attendance figures, they don't visit all the parks (otherwise attendance would be equal at all parks). While I agree that WWOHP won't significantly affect attendance, I'm not so sure, anymore, that it will benefit Disney so much.

Universal appeals to families with older kids, many of whom likely shun Disney. Contrary to the opinions of people on this site, a great many people view Disney as being for small children. They view Universal as a place for families with older children. I know many people who actually only spend a day or two at Disney.

I know most people don't follow my planning (I went to Disney for five days at the begining of September, and flew back to Orlando the very next weekend to visit Universal).

But let's get real. Harry Potter is not going to be Disney's undoing. Disney is resting on its laurels. Refurbs are not something to get excited about...they should be standard. A reboot of 20 year-old ride shouldn't be anything to foam at the mouth. A dark ride themed after a 20 year-old movie is nothing to plan a vacation around, particularly since all it will do is move you around a room filled with cardboard sets and an animatronic or two. Disney's complacency and continued increase in price will be its undoing.

Also, I doubt, even if the parks became unprofitable, they would just close. They'd sell to an outside company and license the name. And I agree that Disney is too big to be allowed to fail.

Disney's overall attendance didn't go down...

Just WDW's.

 

[ddbowdoin]

HP is a short run venture... with the books ending, movies ending, and generations that read the books grow out the series will lose appeal... it doesn't have the long term appeal that WDW has. Sure, the newer Disney ventures haven't been massive blockbusters (excluding Pixar) but the classics will always remain that, classics.

 

[lazyboy97o]

This sounds like a seriously overblown extrapolation of any problems Disney might have to me, but just for argument's sake:

I have a feeling you'd see a massive intervention by governments of the surrounding communities and the state of Florida before WDW was allowed to even consider going under. Even with all the tax breaks Disney has been able to carve out for itself, it's such a massive economic engine for the area that Orlando would be devastated by its loss.

That would only be the case if The Walt Disney Company suddenly collapsed under the weight of the other divisions performing poorly. Years of slow decline, with money being burned by Burbank, would give Orlando time to acclamate to a Walt Disney World that no longer matters, eventually to the point where it's closure will not matter. Walt Disney World, if it does, will go out with a whimper and nobody will be able to look back and say exactly when it began to die.

HP is a short run venture... with the books ending, movies ending, and generations that read the books grow out the series will lose appeal... it doesn't have the long term appeal that WDW has. Sure, the newer Disney ventures haven't been massive blockbusters (excluding Pixar) but the classics will always remain that, classics.

This seems to be the classic response of people who have not been. Have you? Nothing about the Wizarding World is dependent on the mythos, and yet it is still heavily rooted in it all. It works at all levels of fandom. It can survice without the books or films because , at it's core, it is a great themed experience.

 

[GLaDOS]

HP is a short run venture... with the books ending, movies ending, and generations that read the books grow out the series will lose appeal... it doesn't have the long term appeal that WDW has.

Right.

Just like the appeal of Pirates of the Caribbean or the Jungle Cruise or the Haunted Mansion has fallen off. Or the old Disney characters and movies.

Or the popularity of Lord of the Rings.

Or Narnia.

Or Star Wars.

Or basically any epic franchise that has stood the test of time over the past 70 years.

It's pretty amazing how vindictive and defensive fans of something get when there is something that is just as good if not better than their thing. Is it really that hard to admit that someone did it better than you did and congratulate them? Or, god forbid, actually go and enjoy the other product!?(I know! What am I thinking!?) It is possible to like both.

Seriously, take a deep breath, and realize Disney can be beat in building attractions. It has happened before, it will happen again. They're still the overall leader in the industry, but they're not untouchable. Relax, it's not the end of the world.

 

[Thrill]

HP is a short run venture... with the books ending, movies ending, and generations that read the books grow out the series will lose appeal... it doesn't have the long term appeal that WDW has. Sure, the newer Disney ventures haven't been massive blockbusters (excluding Pixar) but the classics will always remain that, classics.

Star Wars, for most fans, ended decades ago, yet it's still popular. I do think that HP's popularity will decrease, but I can't see it completely disappearing. For the next couple of decades, I think it will at least be something that most people are familiar with.

 

[Flip83]

It's not drinkin any Disney Kool Aid. It's the fact that I feel how many people I know feel. Many friends I know aren't even big Disney fans enough to go to WDW as much as my family has. But they have all agreed, WDW is a much better park, that's well maintained, nicer cast members, more attractions, more stuff to do. I don't hate Universal at all, my whole family likes Universal. My Aunt said it was a good time. She, like all my friends and family, say Disney is superior. It will always be the superior park. That is why Disney is never rushed to top Universal. 2013, NO ONE will talk about Potter. It'll be a bored island that loses it's excitement. Besides it losing it's excitement, FLE will then dominate and bring a ton of fans again. Again, I will say, Disney does need updates (New section in AK, or HS. maybe just a couple new Big rides). But, It's still an awesome resort, and even when they aren't rushing to things, they still bring millions in every year. They will get to new things, just be patient!

 

[DisneyParksFan1]

I feel another Disney Decade..

 

[DisneyParksFan1]

Well, most of the people I'm around are very mainstream and just don't care about little details and small things we appreciate as Disney fans. Sure it is well maintained but all mainstream people care about these days are rides and coaster. They could care less if the Yeti is on A or B mode or whatever mode it's on right now.