Frontierland makeover

[Darth Sidious]

OK. I've seen this. How does that table equate to flat per guest spending at WDW? Since they lump all domestic P&R together and it shows an 8% total increase in per guest spending year over year. The guest spending includes tickets, hotel rooms, food and merchandise. No way to back into just WDW numbers from this.

Upon further digging... There aren't any concrete numbers floating around from TWDC regarding specific properties. If you we're really concerned with these numbers and wanted to ballpark it you could but that would be pretty complex. That's something I'd probably only see Moody's, S&P, Fitch do lol.

 

[awoogala]

I'm not questioning that they could use another E-ticket at MK. I would love to have one. I'm just questioning how even an E-ticket themed to anything in Frontierland will be the answer to Potter. It won't and it can't. Star Wars - possibly, not wild west. It just doesn't have the appeal. My only point is that I don't think Disney management was sitting around a table saying "what is our answer to the boy wizard down the street" and decided a Western themed boat ride was the answer. IF it gets built it will not IMO be a reaction to Potter. It will be part of a plan to expand capacity and even out the flow in MK. In my opinion, we as fans put way too much stock into the Universal vs WDW debate. I don't think TWDC is as obsessed with it as we are as fans and not everything they do is a reaction to revenues lost to Universal. Whether that is short sighted on there part is a fair debate.

I agree that they could come up with unique merchandise and a different experience with this, but it's kinda funny how most people were luke warm at best to Avatar which would be exactly that. Unique and possibly cutting edge. Even before the rumors that the bike coaster was cut a lot of people were not too excited by the project. This is just a general observation, not directed at you since I have no idea where you stand on Avatar.

Naive as it might be, I have a glimmer of hope, that this is a new page that Disney is turning. That they know potter is amazing, and they have no one thing to beat it, but that they are spreading out, trying to address a multitude of issues, trying to spread out upgrades in many areas in many ways, and give the customers a full, 4 park experience, as opposed to burying all their money into one huge undertaking, unsure if it will appease everyone. (aka avatar). I like it, it seems like a positive thought, respecting that what makes Disney fantastic is not one fancy new spot, but the total environment and sense of wonder across the brand. ;-)

 

[Thrill Seeker]

If you're gonna build anything in Frontierland, TSI/Rivers of America is where you'd have to build it. Not to toot my own horn, but I'd love to see my Western River Rapids idea happen. Basically switch out the ride system and tweak the story for WRE a bit an you have yourself an awesome ride!

 

[GoofGoof]

Upon further digging... There aren't any concrete numbers floating around from TWDC regarding specific properties. If you we're really concerned with these numbers and wanted to ballpark it you could but that would be pretty complex. That's something I'd probably only see Moody's, S&P, Fitch do lol.

It does seem like they go out of there way to not give out too much useful info.

 

[GoofGoof]

Naive as it might be, I have a glimmer of hope, that this is a new page that Disney is turning. That they know potter is amazing, and they have no one thing to beat it, but that they are spreading out, trying to address a multitude of issues, trying to spread out upgrades in many areas in many ways, and give the customers a full, 4 park experience, as opposed to burying all their money into one huge undertaking, unsure if it will appease everyone. (aka avatar). I like it, it seems like a positive thought, respecting that what makes Disney fantastic is not one fancy new spot, but the total environment and sense of wonder across the brand. ;-)

I agree with this. If they really actually go through with the full DHS overhaul (Carsland, MI coaster, maybe Indy), plus Avatar in Ak, plus something in Frontierland and maybe Tomorrowland the sum of the parts would be a big step in the right direction towards countering Potter and Universal's expansion. Poor EPCOT. I can't even come up with an unfounded rumor to list. Again, my only point to my original series of posts was that IMO if they build something in Frontierland that alone would not be a Potter Swatter and would not be intended to be a reaction to Universal similar to FLE.

 

[Clyde]

Thanks. No actual 'truth' to it. Just my imagining how one could bridge the Rivers and make new ride space available in the NW.

Well it's awesome and really helps to be able to wrap my mind around some possibilities.
Thanks again.

 

[doctornick]

Poor EPCOT. I can't even come up with an unfounded rumor to list.

The only unfounded rumor I've heard is the possibility of the Ratatouille ride (which is being build in DLP) coming to the France Pavilion. Suffice to say, I don't believe it would ever happen.

 

[GoofGoof]

The only unfounded rumor I've heard is the possibility of the Ratatouille ride (which is being build in DLP) coming to the France Pavilion. Suffice to say, I don't believe it would ever happen.

Forgot about that one. I agree it's unlikely but could be cool. At least they made the bakery bigger. They are also putting a Starbucks in at EPCOT but I dont count that as a major addition. Someone once mentioned the potential of building DVC units behind and incorporated into the countries at World Showcase. Would be pretty cool for DVC owners, but since it really wouldn't add much to the average guest I don't really count it.

 

[Darth Sidious]

It does seem like they go out of there way to not give out too much useful info.

To be fair though this wouldn't be 'relevant' to your investors as they invest in the aggregate company rather than just one asset. The only time I could see this info being provided is if they issued an asset backed debt security. This would just be a bond backed by WDW ticket sales for example. That or they just want to brag lol. I went to school for this and I would say that most companies wouldn't provide this. It would be comparable to Exxon giving specific numbers to some one rig in the gulf. The info TWDC provides is useful for investors though. The info we were looking for definitely exists but only internally with management.

 

[CinematicFusion]

I agree with a post earlier, until you see actual construction these are all just rumors. It just sounds like Disney imagineers are constantly thinking of ways to build a better park but budget, red tape, indecisiveness keep WDW from becoming the true world class state of the art park it should be. It still the best overall destination park in the world no question....but it does need almost 2 billion dollars worth of new blood put into WDW.

 

[GoofGoof]

To be fair though this wouldn't be 'relevant' to your investors as they invest in the aggregate company rather than just one asset. The only time I could see this info being provided is if they issued an asset backed debt security. This would just be a bond backed by WDW ticket sales for example. That or they just want to brag lol. I went to school for this and I would say that most companies wouldn't provide this. It would be comparable to Exxon giving specific numbers to some one rig in the gulf. The info TWDC provides is useful for investors though. The info we were looking for definitely exists but only internally with management.

Actually, if you go back to previous 10Ks the domestic portion of that table is broken out between East Coast and West Coast. I think it was around 2009 the last time they disclosed it separately. It is speculated by some that the change was made to mask issues at WDW. I think the breakout is/was valuable to an investor especially if the WDW per guest spending really is shrinking. WDW is a large portion of the P&R segment. In the 2012 10K they show a 7% increase in per guest spending and state that is from higher ticket prices, food and beverage spending and daily hotel room rates, but no mention of a breakdown between DLR and WDW. That is why I asked the original question since I could not find any breakdown of WDW itself in recent years. I was just wondering if someone had the actual numbers showing that WDW per guest spending is flat. The idea gets thrown around a lot and I don't doubt that it is true, but I have never actually seen any numbers to back it up.

 

[MerlinTheGoat]

If you're gonna build anything in Frontierland, TSI/Rivers of America is where you'd have to build it. Not to toot my own horn, but I'd love to see my Western River Rapids idea happen. Basically switch out the ride system and tweak the story for WRE a bit an you have yourself an awesome ride!

I don't dislike river rapids rides, but I hope in this case that they don't build it if that's the WRE we end up getting. They tend to be very light on any sort of elaborate show scenes and animatronic figures, two aspects that the original WRE would have used a lot. I think a Pirates-like boat ride would be best, perhaps with some of the tech being used in Shanghai to direct the boats in certain ways.

 

[djlaosc]

Poor EPCOT. I can't even come up with an unfounded rumor to list.

It seems that Imagination 4.0 has been pitched multiple times!

 

[Darth Sidious]

Actually, if you go back to previous 10Ks the domestic portion of that table is broken out between East Coast and West Coast. I think it was around 2009 the last time they disclosed it separately. It is speculated by some that the change was made to mask issues at WDW. I think the breakout is/was valuable to an investor especially if the WDW per guest spending really is shrinking. WDW is a large portion of the P&R segment. In the 2012 10K they show a 7% increase in per guest spending and state that is from higher ticket prices, food and beverage spending and daily hotel room rates, but no mention of a breakdown between DLR and WDW. That is why I asked the original question since I could not find any breakdown of WDW itself in recent years. I was just wondering if someone had the actual numbers showing that WDW per guest spending is flat. The idea gets thrown around a lot and I don't doubt that it is true, but I have never actually seen any numbers to back it up.

Ah, gotchya... I went and read the '09 10K and it does break down to East and West. I'm not sure why they would stop doing so if they had been in the past because usually you need consistency. Honestly in my opinion it isn't too big a deal for investors unless WDW was becoming a 'bad asset' which it won't be despite our banter here on the forums. It will still have draw and eventually will get money pumped into it. DLR was in bad shape for some time then received some TLC, so it will happen... Eventually LOL. I doubt spending at WDW is flat. It likely correlates with the domestic as a whole data since those increases are driven by rate increases.

 

[tl77]

I sure hope not! I don't like Kali River at AK and Blutto at Islands of Adventure. The rides can be fun but there is nothing that is worth being soaked to your underwear and walking around in wet socks all day. Even on the hottest of days this is not fun.

So please TDO think about the wet factor if you are going this direction. Splash Mt is the perfect blend of some wet but not so much that you don't dry in a realtivly decent period of time

I agree with you completely, being soaking wet all day is not my idea of a good time, but since they added that Casey Jr. soak station to the FLE it made me think this river rapids thing might be a possibility again

The back half of TSI is the only real place they could expand Frontierland, though my hope would be that they'd dust off the old Discovery Bay concept and stick that back there

 

[njDizFan]

Everything you need is on the financial statements... There is just a lot to sift through. You can get the full report at http://thewaltdisneycompany.com/investors/financial-information

The fine print states that the per room guest spending($253) is only the monies spent for hotel, F&B, merhcandise at the hotel, not throughout the parks on tickets etc. It seemed awfully low figure but that makes sense.

 

[GoofGoof]

The fine print states that the per room guest spending($253) is only the monies spent for hotel, F&B, merhcandise at the hotel, not throughout the parks on tickets etc. It seemed awfully low figure but that makes sense.

The per capita guest spending in the parks section above represents all spending per guest including park tickets. They don't give a dollar amount per guest just a percentage increase of 8%. They do mention higher ticket prices as a driver to growth in this category.

 

[njDizFan]

The per capita guest spending in the parks section above represents all spending per guest including park tickets. They don't give a dollar amount per guest just a percentage increase of 8%. They do mention higher ticket prices as a driver to growth in this category.

Yah would really like to know that dollar amount.

Any guesses?

 

[GoofGoof]

Yah would really like to know that dollar amount.

Any guesses?

Some accountant with a spreadsheet knows it. That man is not me. Comparing that number to the same number for Universal would give you an idea of how WDW is doing vs Universal.

 

[NoChesterHester]

I have enjoyed all the rumors lately. Makes the board more fun.