Frigid January Numbers ...

carolina_yankee

Well-Known Member
I agree with a lot of your post... but you're looking at the value of DVC strictly from a cost perspective, assuming a hotel stay versus DVC year after year. But I would comment that without DVC, there might not be a trip in bad economic times. Those people who might cancel a trip in bad economic times are now able to afford the trip because the accommodations are already paid for (via DVC).

So while the long-term value is in question (and I definitely notice how we DVC owners cannot take advantages of these special deals), I'm glad I have my DVC ownership at this time. It makes the trip much more affordable - so I'm going in May no matter what happens with the economy.

2009 will be a fairly big Disney year for us because of DVC, but we're also able to take advantage of the some of the deals because our DVC is paid up front. The timing didn't work for the 4/7 special, but the AP rates are pretty good and allowed us to extend our upcoming trip several days at fairly nice prices. We would have likely done so at a moderate, but went to SSR instead. Where DVC members get the shaft, though, is that the AP rate for SSR in January is $169 for a studio, whereas the DVC member discount is over $220.

As for DVC over all - it has forced us to budget better for our vacations ( so we can actually take them) and allowed us to stay in Deluxe quality resorts rather than mods. Over 50 years, I know we'll come out ahead because we bought SSR at $83. If we were buying today, I'm not sure we it work so much in our favor. Anyway, with 50 years, I'll be 89 on my last visit so DVC Assisted Living anyone? :lol:

Dirk
 

Lucky

Well-Known Member
Please don't take this as gospel, but it is a very highly educated guess ... and that is that in a typical January load levels are in the mid-upper 60s. A great January would be over 70, while a lousy one would be around 55-60.

35% is wretched ... there's no other way to spin it!
OK, but you're still comparing two different things: bookings of 35% a month or more in advance for Jan. 2009 v. actual occupancy of mid to upper 60s for previous Januaries.

To be meaningful you have to compare advance bookings to advance bookings, or actual occupancy to actual occupancy.

Maybe all the pessimism will turn out to be accurate. But even if all the numbers you mention are accurate they still don't provide a valid comparison with previous years.
 

MythBuster

Active Member
If Disney Hotels are slow with all the discounts just think about the surrounding hotels in the area. Here is a good article by the Orlando Sentinel.

Small hotels, motels losing sleep over empty beds

By SARA K. CLARKE
Sentinel Staff Writer
December 1, 2008


The hotels and motels on Walt Disney World's doorstep are worse off now than during the 2001 recession and the travel slump that followed the Sept.11 terrorist attacks.

Only three of every 10 hotel rooms in the west Kissimmee area were occupied on an average night in September. Signs along U.S. Highway192 near Disney's southern entrance advertise rooms for less than $30 a night. Traffic along the six-lane commercial strip is light; parking lots are empty or nearly so.

As these Osceola County hotel owners struggle against the sour economy to attract a shrinking number of tourists, they are competing more fiercely than ever with the giant theme-park resort that was once their lifeblood. During the past decade, Disney has made a big push into what it calls the "value" hotel market — an area it once left to the budget, economy and midprice properties beyond its borders.

Moderately priced hotels such as Disney World's All-Star Resorts and its newer Pop Century Resort now comprise more than 8,500 rooms — nearly as many as all the hotels in the west Kissimmee market combined. Bob Iger, chief executive of the resort's corporate parent, Walt Disney Co., recently told investors the company is "better prepared" to battle economic turmoil this time around, in part because of Disney World's arsenal of low-cost rooms.

"In prior recessions, we didn't have nearly as many value-priced rooms," Iger said. Disney World hotels are known for their consistently high occupancy rates. For the fiscal year ending in September, Disney reported its hotels and time shares were 90percent full. But Disney officials noted early last month that resort bookings for both Disney World and California's Disneyland had "slowed meaningfully" since mid-September.

And if there's more room at the inn these days for Disney World, that doesn't bode well for the resort's neighbors.

"If they're not full, there's no push-out," said John Brost, general manager of the Best Western Lakeside, just a couple of miles west of Disney World on U.S.192. "People are staying on Disney property at very reasonable rates."

As a result, the average west Kissimmee hotel was just 31percent full in September — less than the 38percent recorded in September 2001. In October, the area's average occupancy rate was 43percent — essentially even with October 2001 but down almost 19percent from a year ago, according to Smith Travel Research, which surveys the region's hotel market monthly.

Staying afloat

Issa Kassam once owned three hotels along U.S.192. Now he's thankful he owns only one.

Between plummeting occupancy and falling prices, he estimates that in October, his Knights Inn Maingate did little more than half the business it did a year ago. And Kassam has cut his $40 room rate to $30 a night.

"Business is awful," Kassam said. "I'm just trying to give it away, to keep my people employed."

Some hoteliers say falling gas prices have at least encouraged Florida residents to take weekend trips to Orlando's theme parks. At the Days Inn Maingate East, about a mile east of Disney, most of the guests these days have driven fewer than 200miles from home.

But while the hotel is holding its own, it is "definitely not looking at a profit," said Tim Webb, vice president of sales and marketing for the company that operates the hotel.

Rates at Disney's least-expensive hotels, meanwhile, have dipped recently as low as $49 a room on selected nights for season-pass holders and Florida residents, said Jacquee Polak, a Disney World spokeswoman.

The resort also has revived a discount package most recently offered in 2003 that allows guests to stay for seven nights while paying for only four. The "4-plus-3" deal means a family of four can stay for a week at one of Disney's "value" resorts — with four weeklong theme-park passes included — for as little as $1,271, or about $180 a night.

Hotel empire

In the past, Disney was generally content to leave the budget, economy and midprice markets to independents. Eventually, though, Disney built a hotel empire that now comprises more than 25,000 rooms — including a "value" segment that debuted in the late 1990s with the 5,760-room All-Star Resorts, where rooms went initially for $74 to $104 a night.

Hoteliers along U.S.192 in Osceola County then braced for Disney's equally large Pop Century Resort — but the company delayed opening until 2003, because of the 2001 recession and 9-11 attacks.

"The economy was already in a downturn [in 2001], and Sept.11 just put a dagger in our body," said Janak Desai, a hotelier who at the time owned the 64-room Baymont Inn on U.S.192.

When Pop Century Resort finally opened, only the first phase of 2,880 rooms took in guests. The second 2,880 rooms never opened, and the partially built complex stands lifeless across a lagoon from the finished resort, a testament to the lack of demand even on Disney property.

Mom-and-pops suffer

Duane Winjum, who manages the 224-room Royale Parc Suites on U.S.192 just east of Disney's World Drive, describes the area's hotel market as a series of concentric rings drawn around Disney World.

"The closer you are to Disney, probably the better you're doing," Winjum said.

If that's true, it might explain why Rene Sandoval is so desperate.

When he bought the Sevilla Inn on U.S.192 a few years ago, the 50-room motel was charging $35 to $39 a night. Now most of Sandoval's clients are locals who essentially live at the hotel. "Even $25 they don't want to pay," he said.
 

pax_65

Well-Known Member
I'm a huge DVC fan, but in no way believe you actually save or benefit by being a member.

Well, I agree that DVC is a luxury item, and the real benefit is being able to stay in a luxurious "home away from home" accommodations instead of a small hotel room.

Still, I think you will save money in the long-term if you do Disney at least annually, especially if you buy up-front (no financing) and when you consider the price of hotel accommodations in 30+ years. (I paid $55 a point up front for OKW about 10 years ago, so I recognize it may be more cut & dry for me at that rate versus the $84+ a point for Animal Kingdom lodge selling now.)

Also... two things to consider. First, you could try what we do if you go at about the same time every year. Get AP on your next trip, then schedule the following year's trip for at least 1 week earlier. That way, you get two trips off the same AP. When you look at the difference between a 7-day hopper (roughly $300) and an AP with DVC discount (approx $400), you get much more value with the AP if you can use it for two trips. (The second trip is fun - your park passes are paid for, the room is paid for, you get an entire Disney vacation for the price of transportation!)

Second... you can rent your DVC points on occasion. We rented about 200 points a few years ago. At $10 a point, we made an easy $2,000. I wouldn't suggest this as some kind of regular income stream but it helps the financial equation if you can do it once in a while.
 

HauntedPirate

Park nostalgist
Premium Member
(I paid $55 a point up front for OKW about 10 years ago, so I recognize it may be more cut & dry for me at that rate versus the $84+ a point for Animal Kingdom lodge selling now.)

Heh... try $104 per point and going to $112 per point in January. :) We got in for $87/point and wish we would've gotten in sooner.

Also... two things to consider. First, you could try what we do if you go at about the same time every year. Get AP on your next trip, then schedule the following year's trip for at least 1 week earlier. That way, you get two trips off the same AP. When you look at the difference between a 7-day hopper (roughly $300) and an AP with DVC discount (approx $400), you get much more value with the AP if you can use it for two trips. (The second trip is fun - your park passes are paid for, the room is paid for, you get an entire Disney vacation for the price of transportation!)

Second... you can rent your DVC points on occasion. We rented about 200 points a few years ago. At $10 a point, we made an easy $2,000. I wouldn't suggest this as some kind of regular income stream but it helps the financial equation if you can do it once in a while.

Oh yeah, second (or third) trips with AP's are nice. Transportation and food are your only hard costs, and depending on when you go it can make for more relaxing vacations - no need to rush rush rush to pack things in when you are coming back. That happened with us last year - 1 trip in October, 1 in December. We didn't push to do everything in October, and we ended up enjoying both trips more because of it.
 

JWG

Well-Known Member
Heh... try $104 per point and going to $112 per point in January. :) We got in for $87/point and wish we would've gotten in sooner.



Oh yeah, second (or third) trips with AP's are nice. Transportation and food are your only hard costs, and depending on when you go it can make for more relaxing vacations - no need to rush rush rush to pack things in when you are coming back. That happened with us last year - 1 trip in October, 1 in December. We didn't push to do everything in October, and we ended up enjoying both trips more because of it.

We only go every 18-24 months at most. Living in MN and getting down there is difficult. We use my parents DVC points when we go, they're the members currently. We were going to buy in, but they did and we decided not to. If we could do the annual pass trick, it'd be great. Unfortunately, we not only don't go enough we're not able to get the discount.
 

dreamscometrue

Well-Known Member
I agree with the statement that comparing early December occupancy rates to actual past January rates is misleading. I wouldn't be surprised if January hits 55%-60% when all is said and done.

I'm curious to see how theme park attendance is affected over the next year or two. The turnstile numbers from TEA/ERA show WDW attendance increased steadily, and quite significantly in the 5 years from 2003 to 2007. During that time, WDW attendance was up overall about 26% (MK-22%, Ep-27%, DHS-22%, DAK-30%). I assume that the next year or two will be lower, perhaps similar to post 9/11, but it is cyclical and temporary. Two years from now, I expect we will be predicting a strong 2011.
 

Slowjack

Well-Known Member
I agree with a lot of your post... but you're looking at the value of DVC strictly from a cost perspective, assuming a hotel stay versus DVC year after year. But I would comment that without DVC, there might not be a trip in bad economic times. Those people who might cancel a trip in bad economic times are now able to afford the trip because the accommodations are already paid for (via DVC).
(emphasis added) Just want to point out those are two different statements. It's true that some DVCers might go ahead with trips they wouldn't otherwise, but that's because they had already sunk the majority of the cost of the trip in the initial DVC purchase. But it's not true that it makes it more affordable in bad economic times, because if the DVCer hadn't sunk the money into said initial purchase, they would have $17,000+ more on hand to take vacations during the tough times. (People can debate whether DVC saves the vacationer any money, but even those who think it does would admit the savings comes towards the end of the 50-year span, not the beginning).
 

Brian Noble

Well-Known Member
I think Mary Waring has done an excellent job of analyzing the true costs of DVC--she considers lost opportunity costs on the purchase price, and compares that to cash-rental rates.

Her analysis gives a payoff horizon as early as 12 years, depending on how you use DVC, provided you normally rent Moderate or better accomodations. I think this is a pretty sound conclusion.

It's also why I've never seriously considered buying DVC. In 12 years, my kids will be graduating from college. Will we still want to be taking annual trips to WDW? Quite possibly not.

One of the more interesting conclusions of Mary's analysis, combined with the current DVC points rental market (about $11/pt) is that its cheaper to rent from a current owner than to buy from Disney at today's prices. An AKV point is about $96 to buy, with dues of $4.71 in 2008. At 7%, lost opportunity is $6.72, with a total first-year cost of $11.43.

Over time, the owner starts to pull ahead, assuming rental rates keep pace with inflation. But, in the short term, renting is a smart idea.

http://www.mousesavers.com/dvc.html#opportunity
 

pax_65

Well-Known Member
(emphasis added) Just want to point out those are two different statements. It's true that some DVCers might go ahead with trips they wouldn't otherwise, but that's because they had already sunk the majority of the cost of the trip in the initial DVC purchase. But it's not true that it makes it more affordable in bad economic times, because if the DVCer hadn't sunk the money into said initial purchase, they would have $17,000+ more on hand to take vacations during the tough times.

True enough, although I don't wish that I still had my initial investment (about $13K) and no DVC. I view the money I spent on DVC in 1998 to be some of the best money I've ever spent. I've gone to Disney about 15 times in the past 10 years (using my points very wisely). Already we've gotten tremendous value for that investment when you consider the cost of a moderate hotel room for all those nights and the fact that we were able to rent some of our points one year.

But you're right, it's two different topics. And my original point was exactly that - all financial stuff aside, I'm happy I have DVC because I'm going to Disney next May and staying in luxurious accommodations with no out of pocket expense. If our budget is tight (which if the economy stays down it may be, who knows?) we can cut back on dining out and other expenses but there's really no danger of the trip itself getting canceled.
 

epcotWSC

Well-Known Member
I think people who bought DVC when it first started got a fantastic deal. The investment was very small compared to what it is now.
 

ryguy

Well-Known Member
Very true. Anytime you get in early on things you usually have the advantage. Also OKW is still one of the better DVC resorts out there. The rooms are the largest and the atmosphere is laid back.
 

wvdisneyfamily

Well-Known Member
I think that maybe people are having a tough time making reservations in January/ first quarter is because some resorts are going to be closed ( like they did post 9/11), but they are not letting anyone know yet ("surprise you've been upgraded" from a Value to Moderate, or Moderate to Deluxe). I know that when we went post 9/11 (with a sizable savings), we went with a Deluxe Resort and will never stay at a Value again (if we can help it :lol:). We'll stay (and have) at a Moderate, but never at Value. Once they get you hooked, you're hooked!:lol:

So true. We made the "mistake" of using our stimulus money to upgrade from POR to WL. I love POR. Don't get me wrong. However, once you've tried the WL, POR just seems to pale.
 

JWG

Well-Known Member
You also got park passes for the length of your stay. I think this ended in 1999 or 2000.

It was 1998 or earlier it stopped. My parents bought in in 1998 and didn't get them, but some friends of the family do have them. How great that would have been. Lodging and park admission for the cost of maintenance points once you've paid. Sweet deal.

I think that was originally done to 1) draw interest to something new and unknown and 2) get you to use your points at Disney. I think that at first they were concerned people would use their points outside of Disney through exchange, which they just don't. It's not economical to do that. Even through the cruise line.
 

SilentWindODoom

Well-Known Member
I'm looking to go late January, early February with three friends. Do these low numbers mean anything when it comes to getting reservations? We haven't gotten a chance to get together and talk about it, but plan to this week. We usually take care of this 6-4 months in advance. Am I going to be able to get reservations anywhere (not counting insane places like Hoopty Doo Revue)?

Also, do we know if February is as empty at January?
 

pheneix

Well-Known Member
Heh... I'm glad someone's books have been doctored up enough to show an improvement in the numbers, because what the mouse is really preparing for here in Orlando is a HELL of a lot more than a single digit drop in attendance!
 

Monsterfan99

Active Member
I will say this on the 4/3 deal. I booked at 5 am central time the day it first started and the cheapest I could get was Caribbean beach with the nice view. After the beach was one of the all stars with a suite and deluxe. 3 weeks later, every thing was open including all values with standard views. The dates were March 28-April 4th. Take that for what you will, but that was by calling in.
 

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