tirian
Well-Known Member
Well ... sometimes my hair color 'may' be a little fake ... and the only thing massive about me is the size of my (blank) ...
Belly.
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Frigid January Numbers ...
- Thread starter WDW1974
- Start date
Belly.
WDW1974 has offered plenty of insider information to the Disney fan community what have you brought to the table besides behaving like a whiney baby?
Belly.... LOL....
The buy-4-get-3 free promotion is blacked out for the Marathon/MLK time frame. Otherwise, it's open season on rooms. I can see a 35% occupancy rate for January when you look at it as a whole. I would expect early Feb. and late April/early May (traditionally slow times) to have similar booking rates at the present time, but with the promotion that could change.
"I have information that says something different". So, offer it up. Opinions mean nothing when trying to have a fact-based discussion. In fact, since JHM (which I usually avoid like the plague) has offered up the same 35% number, the heat's on you to produce something different or be thrown into the discard pile.
The buy-4-get-3 free promotion is blacked out for the Marathon/MLK time frame. Otherwise, it's open season on rooms. I can see a 35% occupancy rate for January when you look at it as a whole. I would expect early Feb. and late April/early May (traditionally slow times) to have similar booking rates at the present time, but with the promotion that could change.
"I have information that says something different". So, offer it up. Opinions mean nothing when trying to have a fact-based discussion. In fact, since JHM (which I usually avoid like the plague) has offered up the same 35% number, the heat's on you to produce something different or be thrown into the discard pile.
ryguy
Well-Known Member
The real test will be March and April. Very curious to see what those numbers are like. They have to be way off since this latest promotion lasts till June, which is long for a discount. Lets us know if and when you get the info for those months. Does anyone know with the past down turns did local attendance go up? You would think local attendance would go up because its a cheaper alternative than going out of state for a vacation.
Although I love the thought of WDW being slow, I would much rather have our economy booming rather than busting. 09 looks like a rough year for all Americans, rich or poor. We all need to be praying for a quick economic turnaround.
Although I love the thought of WDW being slow, I would much rather have our economy booming rather than busting. 09 looks like a rough year for all Americans, rich or poor. We all need to be praying for a quick economic turnaround.
Buried20KLeague
Well-Known Member
The unusual length of this promotion could be more about getting a better ROI from the commercials advertising the deal. Usually they don't put specials on TV... They release specials and we find them on the web, etc... Much lower cost.
With this one, they're spending millions to advertise. Seems logical they would increase the window of opportunity to help compensate for that.
I'm sure they weren't worried about occupancy levels being in the 90's by late Spring/early Summer with the economy the way it is going to be... Might as well extend the deal and make it as public as possible for as long as possible. :shrug:
i dont know alot about what is going on in disney. i have no inside information. i am just guessing here. I would have to bet that the deals out there right now are not going to show increase in recervations till after january. not until people find out what income taxes they will be getting back. to see if the economy shows any sign of turning (which in my opinion will not happen will alteast next summer..hopfully sooner). yes the economy sucks right now & i see it more & more each day hurting the middle class more & more. the area i live in is usually the last to feel that effect & it is starting to. seeing i am a DVC member no matter what deals they offer i can not use them. yes i get the benefit of being a DVC memeber but i am also paying alot to use those rooms. We usually go to WDW once a year in the fall but the trip this year is up in the air right now.
WildcatDen
Well-Known Member
Just in from the Ohio QCUFO
Since the "Acorn" registered voters are now leaving the state, the QCUFO is estimating Ohio's occupancy at close to 30% and Gov. Strickland is seriously considering closing the state. . . .
Seriously
Queen City Useless Fact Organization - a burbank production?
Roxas
New Member
The way I see it everyone who is booking now with lower disposable income is downsizing their hotel. Especially considering the premium rate on any "Disney" hotel is a significant amount for some.
People who normally go Deluxe are going Moderate.
People who normally go Moderate are going Value.
People Who normally go Value are going off-site.
Not that I'm saying all off site hotels are cheap but in general.
People who normally go Deluxe are going Moderate.
People who normally go Moderate are going Value.
People Who normally go Value are going off-site.
Not that I'm saying all off site hotels are cheap but in general.
disney4life2008
Well-Known Member
Thats true to an extent. I know A LOT of professionals who travel to Disney yearly but they are not staying on property. They have time share. For example, I am a member of International Interval and at any given point I can get a 7 night 8 day 1 bedroom VILLA for less than $400.
carolina_yankee
Well-Known Member
The DVC program is designed to keep DVC resorts full year round so that wouldn't be a good indicator over all. Because of that, I doubt they are part of the hotel occupancy rate, anyway. Too different beasts. Now, whether or not CRO rooms in DVC resorts (from trades, developers points, banking, etc.) are counted as hotel rooms is another matter.
As for the 35% figure for January - if it is true, I wonder what the figure was this time last year for Jan 2008. It seems only the Marathon Weekend and MLK weekend are the big dates.
Dirk
jakeman
Well-Known Member
Dude, you're mean.
hmm
i tried booking a trip (from jan 5th to 10th) on disney's main site, and selected pop century as my resort. Then, it came back as being full and recommended i stay in the poly. so i tried again and used p.o. river side, and same thing said it was full and recommended poly. Then tried AGAIN with all the all stars and it came back as unavailable and recomended poly again!!! Do you think disney is trying to pull a fast one on people and making them pay more by staying in a deluxe resort?? I smell conspiracy.... :shrug:
i tried booking a trip (from jan 5th to 10th) on disney's main site, and selected pop century as my resort. Then, it came back as being full and recommended i stay in the poly. so i tried again and used p.o. river side, and same thing said it was full and recommended poly. Then tried AGAIN with all the all stars and it came back as unavailable and recomended poly again!!! Do you think disney is trying to pull a fast one on people and making them pay more by staying in a deluxe resort?? I smell conspiracy.... :shrug:
burninup4nick
New Member
hm...
interesting.
interesting.
tirian
Well-Known Member
The online booking system is notoriously buggy. Call the DRC to book vacations.
Brian Noble
Well-Known Member
The Friday night is booked. If you eliminate that one, and look from 5th through 9th, expedia is showing availability in every single value and mod.
Not that surprising, as 9th-11th is marathon weekend, which attracts tens of thousands of people who ordinarily wouldn't be coming to Orlando in January.
hokielutz
Well-Known Member
When we go in January , we're not going to take any chances on this though.... sticking to the Touring Plans and early arrival times at the park.... no sleeping til noon, if we want to experience the highlights of the parks.
JWG
Well-Known Member
This is where DVC is sometimes not the best bet. You've locked in your vacation lodging costs for the most part (less the increasing dues, but you can speculate the compounding cost there). And, odds are you'll come out ahead when comparing a standard vacation year-over-year to DVC ownership.
Where you absolutely lose is on the special deals during slow times such as 4-nights get 3-nights free, free dining, etc. In a period of extended economic downturn, DVC is probably not a great investment and if you go back to 2001 and 2003 you'll even see where DVC was a great investment for Disney because it helped hold up attendance numbers when they were closing hotels. It's already paid for, you have to go.
Now, in long periods of economic boom, DVC is a benefit to you because you've locked in your cost against inflation and lack of deals.
The quesiton is, over the 50 year life of DVC, will there be more periods of boom or bust? If you were an early buyer of Key West, I'd argue boom. If you purchased in 2000 at Yacht Club/Boardwalk than jury may be out.
At least with a regular timeshare, you don't get completely hosed by trading out like you do with DVC. DVC is not friendly if you want to stay anywhere other than a DVC resort (from a point/cost perspective).
In the end, DVC is probably a better deal for Disney than it is for you. In good times you pay normal rates and don't get to take advantage of any package deals on tickets/lodging. Even if those rates are below current, not a huge benefit to you or loss to Disney (unless you're maybe an annual pass holder as well - then maybe benefit to you). In bad times, you're vacationing because you feel you have to and paying normal rates against deeply discounted rates to others.
Like many things, sometimes it seems like loyalty has its drawbacks.
Anyway, that was a long thread hijack. My point, I'm also confident that occupancy rates do not include DVC as with all timeshares that number should be fairly fixed. It's not about occupancy since those rooms are essentially already paid for whether you choose to go or not. CRO rooms in a DVC resort likely are part of occupancy.
Where you absolutely lose is on the special deals during slow times such as 4-nights get 3-nights free, free dining, etc. In a period of extended economic downturn, DVC is probably not a great investment and if you go back to 2001 and 2003 you'll even see where DVC was a great investment for Disney because it helped hold up attendance numbers when they were closing hotels. It's already paid for, you have to go.
Now, in long periods of economic boom, DVC is a benefit to you because you've locked in your cost against inflation and lack of deals.
The quesiton is, over the 50 year life of DVC, will there be more periods of boom or bust? If you were an early buyer of Key West, I'd argue boom. If you purchased in 2000 at Yacht Club/Boardwalk than jury may be out.
At least with a regular timeshare, you don't get completely hosed by trading out like you do with DVC. DVC is not friendly if you want to stay anywhere other than a DVC resort (from a point/cost perspective).
In the end, DVC is probably a better deal for Disney than it is for you. In good times you pay normal rates and don't get to take advantage of any package deals on tickets/lodging. Even if those rates are below current, not a huge benefit to you or loss to Disney (unless you're maybe an annual pass holder as well - then maybe benefit to you). In bad times, you're vacationing because you feel you have to and paying normal rates against deeply discounted rates to others.
Like many things, sometimes it seems like loyalty has its drawbacks.
Anyway, that was a long thread hijack. My point, I'm also confident that occupancy rates do not include DVC as with all timeshares that number should be fairly fixed. It's not about occupancy since those rooms are essentially already paid for whether you choose to go or not. CRO rooms in a DVC resort likely are part of occupancy.
CBOMB
Active Member
You're blowing smoke, that's Horse Hockey, that's Cow Manure, that's Pigeon Crap, that's BS!!!
Give me an Alphabetized list of your informed sources!
Next thing I know you'll be trying to tell me the WAND is coming down........wait you already did that. Never Mind!:wave:
Brian Noble
Well-Known Member
The Mouse certainly thinks so. Since 9/11, Disney has not started construction on a single new cash-rental hotel room. Over the same period, they've fallen all over themselves building DVC rooms. Indeed, they mothballed the "other side" of Pop Century as a complete write-off. They also removed two floors of AKL and the North Wing of CR to make room for even more DVC inventory.
I've long believed that this was in direct response to the experience of travel demand literally circling the drain after 9/11. Prior to that, Disney was developing resort rooms at a dizzying pace. After that date, DVC only. By pre-selling rooms, the Mouse is hedging against bust times, but still collecting a nice profit at sales time, and a modest one on the day-to-day operations of the resort. And, those resorts will have their operations costs covered no matter what, else the Member loses their lease.
The Mouse is one clever Rat.