Frigid January Numbers ...

[HauntedPirate]

Indeed, they mothballed the "other side" of Pop Century as a complete write-off.

Oddly enough, Pop Century (the entire thing, not just what's undeveloped) will probably wind up being the first post-recession resort Disney opens (Animation Inn and Suites or whatever the rumored name is) if rumors are to be believed.

The Mouse is one clever Rat.

No doubt about that. They seem to always be coming up with ways to wrangle your money out of your pockets and into theirs. :zipit:

 

[Vernonpush]

i tried booking a trip (from jan 5th to 10th) on disney's main site, and selected pop century as my resort. Then, it came back as being full and recommended i stay in the poly. so i tried again and used p.o. river side, and same thing said it was full and recommended poly. Then tried AGAIN with all the all stars and it came back as unavailable and recomended poly again!!! Do you think disney is trying to pull a fast one on people and making them pay more by staying in a deluxe resort?? I smell conspiracy.... :shrug:

I think that maybe people are having a tough time making reservations in January/ first quarter is because some resorts are going to be closed ( like they did post 9/11), but they are not letting anyone know yet ("surprise you've been upgraded" from a Value to Moderate, or Moderate to Deluxe). I know that when we went post 9/11 (with a sizable savings), we went with a Deluxe Resort and will never stay at a Value again (if we can help it :lol. We'll stay (and have) at a Moderate, but never at Value. Once they get you hooked, you're hooked!:lol:

 

[pax_65]

This is where DVC is sometimes not the best bet. You've locked in your vacation lodging costs for the most part (less the increasing dues, but you can speculate the compounding cost there). And, odds are you'll come out ahead when comparing a standard vacation year-over-year to DVC ownership.

I agree with a lot of your post... but you're looking at the value of DVC strictly from a cost perspective, assuming a hotel stay versus DVC year after year. But I would comment that without DVC, there might not be a trip in bad economic times. Those people who might cancel a trip in bad economic times are now able to afford the trip because the accommodations are already paid for (via DVC).

So while the long-term value is in question (and I definitely notice how we DVC owners cannot take advantages of these special deals), I'm glad I have my DVC ownership at this time. It makes the trip much more affordable - so I'm going in May no matter what happens with the economy.

I was in Disney in November 01... it was VERY quiet. I wonder if May 09 will be similar. We'll see I guess.

 

[surfsupdon]

I think that maybe people are having a tough time making reservations in January/ first quarter is because some resorts are going to be closed ( like they did post 9/11), but they are not letting anyone know yet ("surprise you've been upgraded" from a Value to Moderate, or Moderate to Deluxe). I know that when we went post 9/11 (with a sizable savings), we went with a Deluxe Resort and will never stay at a Value again (if we can help it :lol. We'll stay (and have) at a Moderate, but never at Value. Once they get you hooked, you're hooked!:lol:

They are very smart! We've stayed Caribbean Beach from opening year (1988 I think) through 2000. Then, right after 9/11 when CBR was closed, they upgraded us to Yacht Club. We have stayed Yacht Club, Beach Club, and BoardWalk Inn every year since, sometimes more than once per year. They got us hooked!

 

[Brian Noble]

Those people who might cancel a trip in bad economic times are now able to afford the trip because the accommodations are already paid for (via DVC).

For those families who fly, lodging is typically less than 1/4 the total cost of a Disney vacation. So, the most you can possibly save is 25%, and that's if your lodging is free. Even with DVC, it's not free---especially if you consider the lost opportunity on the purchase price.

 

[Slowjack]

Just curious...what would a "normal" occupancy rate be for WDW resorts in January? I've got nothing to compare this to.

 

[JWG]

I agree with a lot of your post... but you're looking at the value of DVC strictly from a cost perspective, assuming a hotel stay versus DVC year after year. But I would comment that without DVC, there might not be a trip in bad economic times. Those people who might cancel a trip in bad economic times are now able to afford the trip because the accommodations are already paid for (via DVC).

So while the long-term value is in question (and I definitely notice how we DVC owners cannot take advantages of these special deals), I'm glad I have my DVC ownership at this time. It makes the trip much more affordable - so I'm going in May no matter what happens with the economy.

I was in Disney in November 01... it was VERY quiet. I wonder if May 09 will be similar. We'll see I guess.

More importantly is that people view DVC as a luxury item and not as a finance opportunity. The interest rate will quickly make it not worth it, especially if you pay the DVC loan rates through their financing. If you can't afford to pay for DVC up front, then it's probably not the right move. Not you original poster specifically, you as in general public. The caveat to that being you finance it because you know you can get a rate less than a savings opportunity you have.

You're still going to go because you've paid for it, but you've still paid for it so it's not as though you're getting someting for nothing. The alternative is you don't go becase you choose not to spend the money as a non-member. You're going to go and spend even more money buying park tickets, meals, souveneirs, etc.

I'm a huge DVC fan, but in no way believe you actually save or benefit by being a member. It's just a luxury knowing you'll always have deluxe+ accommodations and access to a variety of loding options on property. Their is a DVC membership in our family and we haven't stayed at a non-DVC location since 1998 because of it, but I also think it's cost us more in the last 10-years buying regular magic your way tickets (not close enough to do annual passes), not getting package deals or discounts and also not benefiting from AP discounts.

It'd be nice if they'd go back to offering better discounts to members to spark additional spending on dining, souveneirs, etc. Unfortunately, they know they don't have to because you've already paid so you're going to come.

 

[WDW1974]

Hey 74, do you and Jim have the same friends? :lol:

http://jimhillmedia.com/blogs/jimm_...ew-year-for-the-walt-disney-world-resort.aspx

(paragraph 8)

No ... Jim doesn't travel around in my circles ... but what's that saying about even a blind squirrel sometimes finds a nut.

The info is solid and I am sure it's out there ...

 

[WDW1974]

Not saying that you're not telling the truth, but if these numbers are correct, there would no doubt be a news story about it by now.

No, it wouldn't.

You obviously don't follow how Orlando media 'covers' The Mouse.

I'm reasonably certain that no one at either the Sentinel or any of the local TV and radio outlets has a clue what's going on at WDW in any way, shape or form.

 

[WDW1974]

35% is advance bookings for the month of January, taken as a whole and not accounting for spikes or dips based on weekends, holidays, etc. The actual number will likely be higher as there is no doubt that people are waiting until the last second to book again. PROJECTED occupancy and attendance is higher than this and is probably the source of conflicting numbers that other members of this site report having.

Regardless, the projected numbers are still the worst since 9/11, and taking that extraordinary event out of the equation about the same as the recession in 1991. Considering everything that Disney has added to the resort since 1991, its no wonder panic mode has officially set in.

Good points all ...

And let's not suggest that people won't book later. They will guaranteed.

The college football bowl season matchups will come out soon and people who travel to any of the four major bowls in the state often add a WDW visit to their trips. In addition, the Orange Bowl in Miami will be hosting the national championship game on Jan. 8th (after its regularly scheduled game on the 1st) and plenty of those fans will certainly visit Mickey and the Gang, either before (more likely) or after the game. Since no one knows who'll be playing where yet, many of those people haven't made plans yet.

But even with all that into account, January is still going to be a very, very, very slow overall month for Disney (and Orlando!)

 

[WDW1974]

The way I see it everyone who is booking now with lower disposable income is downsizing their hotel. Especially considering the premium rate on any "Disney" hotel is a significant amount for some.

People who normally go Deluxe are going Moderate.
People who normally go Moderate are going Value.
People Who normally go Value are going off-site.


Not that I'm saying all off site hotels are cheap but in general.

Excellent point.

I had booked a Disney moderate for my visit last month at the 'discounted' $99 rate. ... Then I was able to use Priceline.com and stay at a Country Inn and Suites in LBV for $20 a night (yeah, you read that right and that also included an edible breakfast and free high speed Internet) and the Hilton at DD for $49 a night.

Saved a lot of $$$ and in both cases got a higher quality, higher value product than what I could by staying at a WDW resort. And five of my days were still spent staying 'on property.'

When times are tough, people look for value and look to places that aren't cutting back quality. I enjoyed my stays tremendously.

 

[WDW1974]

You're blowing smoke, that's Horse Hockey, that's Cow Manure, that's Pigeon Crap, that's BS!!!
Give me an Alphabetized list of your informed sources!
Next thing I know you'll be trying to tell me the WAND is coming down........wait you already did that. Never Mind!:wave:

Oh yeah, I did tell you that ... albeit on anotherDisneyplace.com :king: ...

I'd love to be telling you that demo crews will be hitting the BAH next, but alas, I'd be lying.

BTW, look for a PM from me later this week ... been meaning to drop you a line, but life has limited my online fun time to trying to set the record straight here on a few points!:hammer::hammer::hammer:

 

[WDW1974]

Just curious...what would a "normal" occupancy rate be for WDW resorts in January? I've got nothing to compare this to.

Please don't take this as gospel, but it is a very highly educated guess ... and that is that in a typical January load levels are in the mid-upper 60s. A great January would be over 70, while a lousy one would be around 55-60.

35% is wretched ... there's no other way to spin it!

 

[GenerationX]

I believe bookings may be as low (35%) as stated. However, I'm not convinced the 4+3 offer is failing. I don't think anyone here has any real numbers showing the new bookings this offer has generated to-date. And with shopping season just underway, I'd give it more time before assessing its efficacy.

If the 4+3 does fail, I agree with Vernonpush - some resorts may be closed for "refurbishment".

 

[epcotWSC]

Please don't take this as gospel, but it is a very highly educated guess ... and that is that in a typical January load levels are in the mid-upper 60s. A great January would be over 70, while a lousy one would be around 55-60.

35% is wretched ... there's no other way to spin it!

I think with the promo those numbers will improve. It's still early December. I think it will reach that 55% number at least.

 

[jt04]

I believe bookings may be as low (35%) as stated. However, I'm not convinced the 4+3 offer is failing. I don't think anyone here has any real numbers showing the new bookings this offer has generated to-date. And with shopping season just underway, I'd give it more time before assessing its efficacy.

If the 4+3 does fail, I agree with Vernonpush - some resorts may be closed for "refurbishment".

Worse things could happen. To me it's no big deal if they have to consolidate. It really is one of the advantages of a slowing economy in that if someone or something is not up to standards it allows for a remedy. I know that sounds harsh but it really has long term benefits. It's situations like this where managers really earn their money.

 

[a2grafix]

Just counted the days in "green" at the Shades of Green military resort. Out of the 31 days of January, 22 of them are "green," meaning the resort is not booked solid.

Only two of the days are amber (Jan 1 and 27), which means it's almost at capacity. Only seven days are in the red (weekends -- Jan. 9-11, 17-18, and 25-26).

It seems to pick up drastically in February -- 12 days in Feb are in the green (Feb. 1-8, 13, 21, and 27-28). In March only seven days are in the amber. All the rest of the days are in green. April looks like February -- 18 days in April are either amber or red. Past April, though, the forecasts stop.

Just some FYI.

 

[jt04]

Just counted the days in "green" at the Shades of Green military resort. Out of the 31 days of January, 22 of them are "green," meaning the resort is not booked solid.

SoG is not going to get near the guests it would have because the 4/3 is a much better deal and I am sure is taking guests from that facility. SoG is not run by Disney however and I doubt it is participating in the 4/3

 

[Rosso11]

You're blowing smoke, that's Horse Hockey, that's Cow Manure, that's Pigeon Crap, that's BS!!!
Give me an Alphabetized list of your informed sources!
Next thing I know you'll be trying to tell me the WAND is coming down........wait you already did that. Never Mind!:wave:

LOL that was great!! When he broke the wand story before anyone else that's when I learned to always trust the spirit!

 

[a2grafix]

SoG is not going to get near the guests it would have because the 4/3 is a much better deal and I am sure is taking guests from that facility. SoG is not run by Disney however and I doubt it is participating in the 4/3

Oh yeah, I hear what you are saying. Just adding it to the overall mix of the "guest capacity" of the rumoured 35%. I stay at Shades, and I am amazed at the low capacity numbers.