Frigid January Numbers ...

[JimboJones123]

1 of 2 things is going on with the 35%.

1. It is a bold faced lie. Starting the day they announced the 4+3, the packages have been non-existant for January. I've tried several dates. It isn't just at one resort either. The packages do not exist. If there is a need to fill rooms, WDTC might want to stop F-ing around and let people book these packages they spend MILLIONS on ads for.

2. WDTC is a bunch of idiots. They have turned away many millions by not having enough packages ready for the current promotion. I wouldn't discount this option, but I would easier admit that the numbers from the OP are utter crap.

 

[ToTBellHop]

color me a skeptic.

 

[tirian]

1 of 2 things is going on with the 35%.

1. It is a bold faced lie. Starting the day they announced the 4+3, the packages have been non-existant for January. I've tried several dates. It isn't just at one resort either. The packages do not exist. If there is a need to fill rooms, WDTC might want to stop F-ing around and let people book these packages they spend MILLIONS on ads for.

2. WDTC is a bunch of idiots. They have turned away many millions by not having enough packages ready for the current promotion. I wouldn't discount this option, but I would easier admit that the numbers from the OP are utter crap.

...except that Mr. 1974 is not a fake and has massive insider's information.

I don't know what the current booking percentage for January is, but I can tell you this much: 2009 bookings are overall extremely low. The campaign isn't helping very much.

 

[wdwfan22]

Just in from the WDTC ... projected WDW resort occupancy for the month: 35%.

Now you know why all those cuts have been made, all those offers are in the pipeline and why so many CMs won't be having happy holidays.

Just an FYI, but most hotels and resorts don't make money until they sell out 60% of their rooms and Disney is used to load levels in the 80s most months.

That number is BS

 

[WDW1974]

How can you say ttheir stock is doing great? 4months ago I sold my shares at almost $35.00 per share. Now it's between $20-$22 per share.That's about a 40% drop, how is that great?

I sold a large chunk last October ('07) and made a little bit more than that, but still have a fair share as does the family.

But I was comparing Disney to companies like Viacom, CBS, and NewsCorp ... although NBC-Universal isn't exactly doing great either, but it's much better than the three mentioned prior.

So, overall, Disney is doing quite well.

 

[WDW1974]

Thats my thought exactly. I like having minimal wait times so I will be loving the fewer crowds in January. However, something does not add up because I had trouble getting ADRs for some of Disneys most popular resturants. The poster makes it seem like no one is going to Disney whereas, people really are going still.

Maybe you picked places that are popular at popular times ... maybe folks made them and are going to be no-shows ... maybe Disney isn't putting out as much inventory because they plan on having less staffing. I can't explain why an individual is unable to get dining reservations.

And the poster has a name and the spirit in question NEVER said no one is going to Disney. The poster said that he was told by someone in the know whom he trusts that Disney's bookings FOR THE MONTH overall are hovering in the mid-30s.

Said poster stands by the info.

Said poster was told by another insider that 'TDO would be thrilled if they could simply get the number into the 50s' by early next month.

 

[WDW1974]

That number is BS

Gee. Really?

Have anything of substance to offer?

Or just like throwing sand?

 

[WDW1974]

...except that Mr. 1974 is not a fake and has massive insider's information.

Well ... sometimes my hair color 'may' be a little fake ... and the only thing massive about me is the size of my (blank) ...

I don't know what the current booking percentage for January is, but I can tell you this much: 2009 bookings are overall extremely low. The campaign isn't helping very much.

What the campaign is largely doing is getting folks to cancel their existing ressies and switch over to this deal. It is in no way stimulating new ressies to the amount it needs to for Disney to get resort load levels where it wants and needs them to be.

 

[wdwfan22]

Gee. Really?

Have anything of substance to offer?

Or just like throwing sand?

Why, you have offered nothing of substance.

 

[disney4life2008]

Well ... sometimes my hair color 'may' be a little fake ... and the only thing massive about me is the size of my (blank) ...



What the campaign is largely doing is getting folks to cancel their existing ressies and switch over to this deal. It is in no way stimulating new ressies to the amount it needs to for Disney to get resort load levels where it wants and needs them to be.

Thats what I did. I would have been out of 1200 without the 7 for 4 special. Instead im paying less than 600.

 

[WDW1974]

Why, you have offered nothing of substance.

No. I have offered what two people with access to the numbers/data have told me. Two people I've come to trust a great deal based upon their accuracy.

You've offered nothing but a childish little slam.

If you have contrary info, believe me I'd love to hear it ...

 

[WDW1974]

Thats what I did. I would have been out of 1200 without the 4 for 7 special. Instead im paying less than 600.

Yep. I've heard many people say similar things. It seems like it's costing Disney a huge amount in discounting to folks who were coming anyway, while not hooking in another batch of folks who weren't planning trips in early 2009.

 

[wdwfan22]

No. I have offered what two people with access to the numbers/data have told me. Two people I've come to trust a great deal based upon their accuracy.

You've offered nothing but a childish little slam.

If you have contrary info, believe me I'd love to hear it ...

I offered my opinion based on your so called info. That occupancy number is BS based on the information I have. If you want to start naming sources then lets. Otherwise we will agree to disagree:sohappy:

 

[Philo]

I kinda want to call fake on the numbers but it is entirely possible. Consider how many people visit in January anyway, then put the economy in to the equation and slap a bit of Christmas expense coupled with reduced holidays in there and it is totally possible.

Remember that this may not truly reflect the crowds in WDW, many people will be taking the cheaper, off-site option.

 

[Susan Savia]

Oh goodie, less wait times for us!!!

 

[DicksonGR]

Unfortunately WDW is a place where its guests (most of them anyway) will be spending disposable income – and that is something that has drastically reduced due to the current economic climate. Reduction in occupancy is obviously a fore gone, but 35% is surprising!
Thanks for the info!

 

[Thelazer]

I have heard that it's low, I've seen first hand people's hours getting cut, I've heard many things that indicate January is NOT going to be a good time and that likely many CM's hours will be cut or laid off.

One thing I can assure you, Disney knows how to make money no matter what is going on. If this means, the parks are packed but they need to cut staff, hours, perks etc to do it, they will. The bottom line comes first.

 

[MousDad]

Hey 74, do you and Jim have the same friends? :lol:

http://jimhillmedia.com/blogs/jimm_...ew-year-for-the-walt-disney-world-resort.aspx

(paragraph 8)

 

[durangojim]

Not saying that you're not telling the truth, but if these numbers are correct, there would no doubt be a news story about it by now.

 

[pheneix]

35% is advance bookings for the month of January, taken as a whole and not accounting for spikes or dips based on weekends, holidays, etc. The actual number will likely be higher as there is no doubt that people are waiting until the last second to book again. PROJECTED occupancy and attendance is higher than this and is probably the source of conflicting numbers that other members of this site report having.

Regardless, the projected numbers are still the worst since 9/11, and taking that extraordinary event out of the equation about the same as the recession in 1991. Considering everything that Disney has added to the resort since 1991, its no wonder panic mode has officially set in.