FastPass+ Most Certainly Not Coming Back As It Was

[JERiv]

Guess this explains the "Lighting Pass" mentioned earlier -

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It's kind of funny/sad... I play Disney Emoji Blitz, which was a pretty fun game until it was sold off to Jam City. Jam City turned it into a bit of a slog, whereby the focus is on how to milk as much $$$ from players as possible. And limiting how much you can play, or how many emojis you can get, because if you don't spend the $$$ you simply can't do the events.

It caused a ton of grief among old players, who did drop the game. I've thought about it as well. But they were replaced by new players who didn't have a clue how good and fun the game actually used to be. To the new players, this is how it actually works.

That's what comes to mind when I see this image. "Buy now! Super sale! At lightning speed!!" It's like the Parks are being "sold off" to a predatory company (*cough*Jamcity*cough*) that just wants to bankrupt you through microtransactions. Most of us will realize what's going on and be disillusioned. Some will move on. But enough will stay and enough new visitors will visit to make it worth Disney's while to lower the quality even more than they already have.

It's depressing, but the Disney we all grew up with is really no more. Either we accept they're even more blatantly totally just in it for the $$$ and get what enjoyment we can, or we start planning vacations elsewhere.

 

[DisneyCane]

It’s a nice dream but I suspect it’s only that - a dream.

Almost certainly, Disney will start with a reasonable percentage of attraction capacity set aside for Premier Access. For the sake of discussion, let’s say that Disney starts with 50% of ride capacity reserved for Premier Access.

In a year or two, Chapek will demand increased theme park profits without specifying exactly how. Whoever is running Parks $ Resorts at the time will look at the executive in charge of WDW and say, “I need 10% more - figure it out.”

In turn, that executive will look to their staff and say, “10%, figure it out.”

Someone on the staff will say, “I know, increase Premier Access capacity from 50% to 55%.” That someone will be awarded with a bonus.

In a few years, Premier Access will be up to 70-80% of attraction capacity.

Remember, Disney is not going to set the initial limit to (for example) 50% and then be satisfied if only 40% is used. They are forecasting next year’s profits based on 100% of that 50% being used. Disney will figure out some way to get Premier Access up to its expected 50%. It might be with price or wait time manipulation, but Disney is not creating this “new” product just so that it does not sell.

Disney will do whatever they legally can to make sure that Premier Access sells at 100% or more of expectations.

They can also get the 10% revenue by raising the price for the Premier Access by 10%. Now, instead of $10 per pass it is $11. It's a rare case where they can get the increased revenue without reducing guest satisfaction.

 

[pdude81]

It’s a nice dream but I suspect it’s only that - a dream.

Almost certainly, Disney will start with a reasonable percentage of attraction capacity set aside for Premier Access. For the sake of discussion, let’s say that Disney starts with 50% of ride capacity reserved for Premier Access.

In a year or two, Chapek will demand increased theme park profits without specifying exactly how. Whoever is running Parks $ Resorts at the time will look at the executive in charge of WDW and say, “I need 10% more - figure it out.”

In turn, that executive will look to their staff and say, “10%, figure it out.”

Someone on the staff will say, “I know, increase Premier Access capacity from 50% to 55%.” That someone will be awarded with a bonus.

In a few years, Premier Access will be up to 70-80% of attraction capacity.

Remember, Disney is not going to set the initial limit to (for example) 50% and then be satisfied if only 40% is used. They are forecasting next year’s profits based on 100% of that 50% being used. Disney will figure out some way to get Premier Access up to its expected 50%. It might be with price or wait time manipulation, but Disney is not creating this “new” product just so that it does not sell.

Disney will do whatever they legally can to make sure that Premier Access sells at 100% or more of expectations.

That doesn't work unless they have orange trains for dpa that run empty if no one is in the line for it. Currently when nobody is in the fp/das/swap line, standby moves faster.

 

[G00fyDad]

Might be misunderstanding but isn’t there a strong possibility that the “inventory” that used to be set aside for fastpass will be less simply because there’s less demand - because it’s no longer a free option? Standby will be used more, and therefore lines will be “longer” but standby will move more swiftly because there’s fewer fast passes.

FP didn't make the standby line longer.

I wonder if there's a way to make a hot key for that phrase on my cell phone?

 

[threvester]

One thing i noticed from my trip a few weeks ago was how off the wait times were as compared to previous years. I got in a posted 90 minute wait at TSMM and walked straight to the 3d glasses. While this was an extreme example, not once did i wait longer than the posted time..and they were routinely 15-20 minutes less than posted..This really needs to become at least somewhat accurate if you plan on charging people for fp access..i cant imagine how mad i would have been if i paid $10 for the TSMM fp and saw standby walking on

 

[ctrlaltdel]

If there is no dynamic pricing and it’s a flat fee per ride (changing by the day based on anticipated demand) which is how it sounds to be in DLP, that would significantly reduce the effectiveness of the system. You would likely sell less FP, but you would also make it convienent for guests to buy when it is convenient for them, essentially just replacing FP+ with the same thing, only now you paid for FP+. It’s the worst of all worlds tbh.

Not putting it past Disney at all, but that would almost certainly tank guest satisfaction. At least with dynamic pricing you can keep standby lines moving at a good clip by managing FP inventory intelligently.

 

[ParentsOf4]

That doesn't work unless they have orange trains for dpa that run empty if no one is in the line for it. Currently when nobody is in the fp/das/swap line, standby moves faster.

Please consider wait times at WDW today with no FP+. Many attractions have wait times over 30 minutes within the first hour of park opening.

Demand for popular attractions exceed hourly capacity all day long. Standby lines form.

Many attractions have huge wait times at park opening. There is always going to be someone who does not want to wait the (for example) 50-minute Standby time posted for Flights of Passage at park opening. Those Guests are going to opt into Premier Pass early, creating even longer wait times.

On October 1 when onsite Guests (plus select hotels) are allowed in the parks 30 minutes early, you’re going to see long lines everywhere by the time official park opening rolls around.

When you think about it, Early Theme Park Entry feeds neatly into Premier Pass. “Let’s get all the queues primed so that by the time the parks open, there’s already a demand for Premier Pass.”

It’s a brilliant strategy. On site Guests think they are getting a benefit where, in reality, they simply are being used to create early morning demand for Premier Pass.

 

[GhostHost1000]

So when they reduced regular hours and made you pay for longer hours with AH events, gate clicks didn’t go down. When they made it more expensive to park hop, gate clicks didn’t go down.

I’m actually excited that DPA will be an improvement of the guest experience, allowing less time in physical lines, and allowing a LOT more flexibility in touring. So I suspect this will increase gate clicks, if anything.

You’re assuming this will be an improvement of the guest experience by making it more complicated to plan and navigate your day in the parks?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

It’s a nice dream but I suspect it’s only that - a dream.

Almost certainly, Disney will start with a reasonable percentage of attraction capacity set aside for Premier Access. For the sake of discussion, let’s say that Disney starts with 50% of ride capacity reserved for Premier Access.

In a year or two, Chapek will demand increased theme park profits without specifying exactly how. Whoever is running Parks $ Resorts at the time will look at the executive in charge of WDW and say, “I need 10% more - figure it out.”

In turn, that executive will look to their staff and say, “10%, figure it out.”

Someone on the staff will say, “I know, increase Premier Access capacity from 50% to 55%.” That someone will be awarded with a bonus.

In a few years, Premier Access will be up to 70-80% of attraction capacity.

Remember, Disney is not going to set the initial limit to (for example) 50% and then be satisfied if only 40% is used. They are forecasting next year’s profits based on 100% of that 50% being used. Disney will figure out some way to get Premier Access up to its expected 50%. It might be with price or wait time manipulation, but Disney is not creating this “new” product just so that it does not sell.

Disney will do whatever they legally can to make sure that Premier Access sells at 100% or more of expectations.

we can debate this forever…and will…

but there’s really a simple bottomline: this will increase the costs for everyone (in some fashion) across the board. And if they find it doesn’t - they will manipulate the conditions so that it does.

Wall Street. No ambiguity.

at the same time…they will use their substantial psychological tricks to divert attention to/from it and overtime force general acceptance.

i’m sorry if this is too glum…but the hard truth often is.

the consumer has the power…in the end.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

You’re assuming this will be an improvement of the guest experience by making it more complicated to plan and navigate your day in the parks?

…I think it’s oxygen deprivation.

or more likely a somewhat naive belief that the goal of rationing rides and then reselling them is an attempt at making a “more popular product”

‘tis not..it’s simply making a revenue stream using the juju that a now well trained consumer base is giving them to work with.

leads straight back to after hours…if you want to look…and prior to that to the reaction during the housing crash. It’s not that hard to retrace the steps.

 

[Chip Chipperson]

I think this will herald a new age similar to that of “the ticket books”. Less convenient, but more operationally and financially straightforward.

I'm not sure what's "more financially straightforward" about not knowing how much you'll be paying to ride certain rides until you're in the park that day. Right now, you know the cost of your ticket and (when FP+ was active) what rides/attractions you're guaranteed to experience once you made your 3 choices. If this new system were to make its way over here, you would only know the cost of your ticket ahead of time.

 

[monothingie]

It’s a brilliant strategy. On site Guests think they are getting a benefit where, in reality, they simply are being used to create early morning demand for Premier Pass.

It's a machiavellian strategy.

It still boggles my mind how they can't see this as a negative driver of guest satisfaction. Happy guests spend more time in the park and that translates into more money spent at restaurants and shops. Unhappy guests want to leave as quickly as possible and not come back. If the goal was to increase per capita guest spending, this just seems counterintuitive.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I'm not sure what's "more financially straightforward" about not knowing how much you'll be paying to ride certain rides until you're in the park that day. Right now, you know the cost of your ticket and (when FP+ was active) what rides/attractions you're guaranteed to experience once you made your 3 choices. If this new system were to make its way over here, you would only know the cost of your ticket ahead of time.

Charging the most expensive ride all day ticket on earth and THEN having variable pricing to go on the rides?…

…what’s not “straightforward” about that?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

It's a machiavellian strategy.

It still boggles my mind how they can't see this as a negative driver of guest satisfaction. Happy guests spend more time in the park and that translates into more money spent at restaurants and shops. Unhappy guests want to leave as quickly as possible and not come back. If the goal was to increase per capita guest spending, this just seems counterintuitive.

They don’t care. They have no reason to if the customers never refuse to buy.

I say it all the time: wdw customers are the worst consumers of any product on the planet…at least your iPhone talks to you and doesn’t disintegrate at the end of the day (usually). Frankly…they are dumb. No other word. They look at everything in a tiny lens of what they are doing that day or week…sometimes thinking about it everyday for years in advance. Where else do people ramp up like that? And because it’s “personal” and there’s no limits - only desperation to get it - there’s no consumer pushback that anyone has to be worried about.

this isn’t Wharton…it’s not even the first day of Econ 1…it’s fishing with dynamite for the supplier. Thoughtless/brainless.

and I don’t blame the kids…before I get that crap.

I blame their baby parents/grandparents.

 

[ParentsOf4]

I'm not sure what's "more financially straightforward" about not knowing how much you'll be paying to ride certain rides until you're in the park that day. Right now, you know the cost of your ticket and (when FP+ was active) what rides/attractions you're guaranteed to experience once you made your 3 choices. If this new system were to make its way over here, you would only know the cost of your ticket ahead of time.

Disney is most certainly relying on impulse buying.

The children are tired and cranky but really want to go on Dumbo, which has a 45-minute wait time. Your significant other just wants to get out of there and go back to the pool to relax.

Press a button and ($40 later) your problems are solved.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I'm not sure what's "more financially straightforward" about not knowing how much you'll be paying to ride certain rides until you're in the park that day. Right now, you know the cost of your ticket and (when FP+ was active) what rides/attractions you're guaranteed to experience once you made your 3 choices. If this new system were to make its way over here, you would only know the cost of your ticket ahead of time.

I love this post…but can we PLEASE stop saying that Every product is an “experience”…

that’s 100% “company driven” term of misdirection designed to separate your Brain from your wallet.

dumbo is not an “experience” past round one…and not much even at that. Your 5th meal at Crystal palace or le cellier is not an “experience”…nor is your annual Halloween party.

I smelled a rat when that term started popping up on their media about 10 years ago…and I HATE being right.

we consumers need to get back to using price, ticket and cost. Focus.

 

[monothingie]

They don’t care. They have no reason to if the customers never refuse to buy.

I say it all the time: wdw customers are the worst consumers of any product on the planet…at least your iPhone talks to you and doesn’t disintegrate at the end of the day (usually). Frankly…they are dumb. No other word. They look at everything in a tiny lens of what they are doing that day or week…sometimes thinking about it everyday for years in advance. Where else do people ramp up like that? And because it’s “personal” and there’s no limits - only desperation to get it - there’s no consumer pushback that anyone has to be worried about.

this isn’t Wharton…it’s not even the first day of Econ 1…it’s fishing with dynamite for the supplier. Thoughtless/brainless.

and I don’t blame the kids…before I get that crap.

I blame their baby parents/grandparents.

Instead of positive motivators to holistically increase guest's willingness to part with their money, they are relying on people's FOMO to drive increased spending.

At that point, it's a race to the bottom.

 

[DisneyCane]

They don’t care. They have no reason to if the customers never refuse to buy.

I say it all the time: wdw customers are the worst consumers of any product on the planet…at least your iPhone talks to you and doesn’t disintegrate at the end of the day (usually). Frankly…they are dumb. No other word. They look at everything in a tiny lens of what they are doing that day or week…sometimes thinking about it everyday for years in advance. Where else do people ramp up like that? And because it’s “personal” and there’s no limits - only desperation to get it - there’s no consumer pushback that anyone has to be worried about.

this isn’t Wharton…it’s not even the first day of Econ 1…it’s fishing with dynamite for the supplier. Thoughtless/brainless.

and I don’t blame the kids…before I get that crap.

I blame their baby parents/grandparents.

Disney was able, through marketing, to create these dumb customers. I'm a somewhat dumb customer but I do have a limit that will cause me to stop renewing our APs. It almost reached that limit with FP+ and almost never being able to ride certain E-tickets without waiting significantly longer than any ride is worth. It will reach that limit if a new paid system causes there to be an additional cost to having reasonable wait times.

The only possible saving grace as a passholder would be if the pass was transitioned to some kind of points system instead of unlimited admission and the points could be used for admission or Fa$tPa$$ with dollar equivalent per point.

Something like that could let you decide if you want to have more days in the park or shorter waits on fewer days.

 

[ilovetotravel1977]

If I didn't already have four 5-day passes and $2000CDN in gift cards I wouldn't even bother going back at this point. So sad.

 

[ppete1975]

i’m Sure $10 would be a hit…which is why I don’t expect that to be a thing…

if I might ask: how often would you/do you travel to Orlando and pay $150-200 per person per day - combined cost of roughly $300-400 - for amusement parks?

I’m just trying to understand the psychology.

It also goes back to Disney has always been fair about this stuff, anybody can stay on property if they really want a perk.. pops not THAT expensive.. but this is going to be out of some peoples range... and for what you spend to get in.. should you really be slapped again and with you arent as good as these people. And will people unwilling to pay even get to do rise or the new rides or will they have all boarding groups be pay. There is a huge slippery slope this opens and i think its pure greed.

this is just as bad as someone paying for a one day pass to magic kingdom and being kicked out for a halloween or christmas party. Which shame on disney for not giving people a park hopper for those hours so they could at least experience a new park.