FastPass+ Most Certainly Not Coming Back As It Was

[Cmdr_Crimson]

We celebrate 50 years only to go back full circle...

 

[larryz]

Over time, people forget about that extra $40, $80, $120, etc. they spent on Premier Pass.

So yes, 3 or 4 years later that family will mostly remember what a great time they had and will be ready to return.

Meanwhile, those who didn’t pay for Premier Pass will remember the long lines and not want to return.

BUT DISNEY DOES NOT WANT THIS SECOND GROUP BACK.

The second group didn’t spend the extra for Premier Pass. Their Per Capita Guest Spending (one of WDW’s important financial metrics) will be lower. With the parks already overcrowded, Disney would rather save the space for someone who might be willing to pay for Premier Pass, or those who return again and again no matter how long they waited in line.

Spoken like a true executive. You missed your calling. And that's not an insult... that's a compliment.

 

[Raineman]

We celebrate 50 years only to go back full circle...

I think you're onto something. "Relive the memories of ride tickets during the 50th anniversary celebrations, using our all new modern Disney Premier Pass!"

 

[lentesta]

First I would nto call it dynamic pricing, not sure where you are getting that , they are not changing the price as the day goes on like uber or Lyft, not that I ever heard. People would go nuts if they paid a different price than someone else. , And yes a family of 4 sure will pay that for your proposed bundle because they they dont know better or heck they like those rides. I have seen those at 75 minutes many times.

I'm convinced Disney will have to implement dynamic pricing during the day for FastPass. They're looking to optimize revenue. The most practical way to do that is by adjusting the price during the day.

If they set the cost of a FP too low, you start a death spiral for the standby line. You end up with the same problem you had with FastPass+, and you didn't make enough money to compensate for the drop in guest satisfaction. For example, let's say:

• Disney prices a 7DMT FP at $0.01
• 7DMT handles 1,500 people per hour
• 75% of the ride's capacity is allocatedfor FP++
• Guest satisfaction drops significantly once wait times exceed 20 minutes (per Bruce Laval, the guy that invented FastPass, in recent court testimony)

This is essentially the pre-pandemic FastPass model, with a $0.01/ride cost.

In this case, you'll end up with a standby line that looks a lot like pre-pandemic standby lines, with peak posted waits of around 120 minutes for yesterday ("first Tuesday in July"). And you've made $11.25 per hour for the park:

Conversely, suppose you price each FP at $1000 and no one uses it. Then you end up with the situation you have today. Wait times are still high enough to cause guest dissatisfaction, and you've made no money:

Dynamic pricing allows Disney to protect itself against setting the price too low or too high.

The other thing to note is that paid FP, and dynamic pricing in particular, is all profit for Disney; the price of your ticket, food, and merch already covers the cost of running the parks. We know this because the parks operated at a profit before the pandemic.

 

[havoc315]

I'd like to bring up a point that I don't think anyone's mentioned yet. In the days of yore when we booked our 3 FPs months ahead of time, I'm sure most people (I know we did) booked them so that the sequence of FPs matched the flow of their travel around the park. If you started your day at rope drop in NFL, maybe you do 7DMT and PPF, then move to HM in Liberty Square, then maybe BTMRR in Frontierland, before the lines get too long in late morning. Then, you might book your first FP at PoTC as you move into Adventureland, your second at JC, then your third on Space Mountain as you move to Tomorrowland. I would imagine most people travel through the lands in a circular path, depending on where they start. If this new system is implemented, once the queues reach the point where standby needs to be scheduled, or if you want to start using the paid DPPs, your path around the park will be determined by what attractions you can schedule a standby/DPP for, and where you want to be and what you want to do while waiting in the virtual queue. This is going to result in alot of back and forth across the parks,

Don't see how that's any different than FP. Booking 60 days in advance, I would try to plan out my map, but FPs were not always available at the times I wanted. So I had to take whatever times were available, which often was not ideal. And then, the same day.... if my plans changed, if a ride went down, if my family didn't want to do 1 of the rides we had FPs for, then it was lots of back and forth.

The DPA should make that flow much smoother -- since can decide that same day, as we go. Being in fantasy land in the morning, knowing that I'll want to do Pirates around lunch time, so booking a DPA for that time period.

Feels to me like DPA will result in a lot LESS back and forth, the ability to really conveniently plan your day.

which is definitely going to increase the amount of walking each day, which could lead to sore feet and tired kids sooner than usual, or result in making decisions which can lead to alot of time spent hanging out and waiting. For example, there is a standby spot/DPP at BTMRR/Splash available in an hour and you are in Tomorrowland wanting to ride SM/Tron/Buzz but they're not available for 2-3 hours. Do you book BTMRR/Splash, walk to Frontierland, ride, and then hope you can book SM/Tron/Buzz for later and walk back to TL? Or, do you book SM/Tron/Buzz for 2-3 hours later and hang out there for that time because you don't want to walk over to Frontierland and have to walk back to TL later without being assured that you will get that standby spot/DPP at SM/Tron/Buzz?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Pay to play.

…we outlawed that in 2001

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I'm convinced Disney will have to implement dynamic pricing during the day for FastPass. They're looking to optimize revenue. The most practical way to do that is by adjusting the price during the day.

If they set the cost of a FP too low, you start a death spiral for the standby line. You end up with the same problem you had with FastPass+, and you didn't make enough money to compensate for the drop in guest satisfaction. For example, let's say:

• Disney prices a 7DMT FP at $0.01
• 7DMT handles 1,500 people per hour
• 75% of the ride's capacity is allocatedfor FP++
• Guest satisfaction drops significantly once wait times exceed 20 minutes (per Bruce Laval, the guy that invented FastPass, in recent court testimony)

This is essentially the pre-pandemic FastPass model, with a $0.01/ride cost.

In this case, you'll end up with a standby line that looks a lot like pre-pandemic standby lines, with peak posted waits of around 120 minutes for yesterday ("first Tuesday in July"). And you've made $11.25 per hour for the park:

View attachment 570133

Conversely, suppose you price each FP at $1000 and no one uses it. Then you end up with the situation you have today. Wait times are still high enough to cause guest dissatisfaction, and you've made no money:

View attachment 570136

Dynamic pricing allows Disney to protect itself against setting the price too low or too high.

The other thing to note is that paid FP, and dynamic pricing in particular, is all profit for Disney; the price of your ticket, food, and merch already covers the cost of running the parks. We know this because the parks operated at a profit before the pandemic.

Great as always…

but my mind seized up when I saw the “peak of 120 minutes” for mine train.

a 10 year old meh ride. They sell the sand

 

[ImperfectPixie]

…we outlawed that in 2001

Not really.

Person A is willing to fork over hundreds of dollars to skip lines, therefore Person A gets to experience 15 attractions.
Person B is unwilling to fork over the money, therefore Person B only gets to experience 6 attractions.

It's pay-to-play trying to disguise itself as something else.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Not really.

Person A is willing to fork over hundreds of dollars to skip lines, therefore Person A gets to experience 15 attractions.
Person B is unwilling to fork over the money, therefore Person B only gets to experience 6 attractions.

It's pay-to-play trying to disguise itself as something else.

I was talking about New Jersey

…and stop saying “experience”

 

[Daily Magic]

Paying for fastpasses doesn’t concern me as much as the idea of having standby entry windows. As it’s been described it means I could walk up to Space Mountain and be told I can’t get on the standby line bc it’s 30 minutes long at the moment and they aren’t allowing anyone else to get on the line. Instead I’ll have to come back at a preset time in the future and wait up to 30 minutes from that point forward to ride.

The problem this creates is I’m forced now to go do something else, something that may also have a standby line I can’t get on right away. Then what am I to do? Wait around the park until my time comes? Jump on a ride I have no interest in? What if my original ride was the last ride I wanted to jump on before I left the park to head back to the resort, now I have to hang around for an hour or more to come back to wait on a 30 minute line.

What this ultimately makes me fear is that it will force me to decide between waiting around doing things I may not want to do just to get the chance to ride the ride/rides I want or it will encourage me to want to buy a fast pass when I really don’t want to. Who’s to say then that Disney won’t over exaggerate the standby lines to encourage more people to buy fast passes? I’ve seen it already during a recent trip where nearly every posted standby wait was 15-20 minutes longer than the actual wait.

This system seems destined to force more people to choose between not having the vacation they planned for or having to constantly consider micro transactions to get on the rides they already paid a high park ticket fee to get on. Great for Disney investors… not so great for the rest of us just trying to live in the magic.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Paying for fastpasses doesn’t concern me as much as the idea of having standby entry windows. As it’s been described it means I could walk up to Space Mountain and be told I can’t get on the standby line bc it’s 30 minutes long at the moment and they aren’t allowing anyone else to get on the line. Instead I’ll have to come back at a preset time in the future and wait up to 30 minutes from that point forward to ride.

The problem this creates is I’m forced now to go do something else, something that may also have a standby line I can’t get on right away. Then what am I to do? Wait around the park until my time comes? Jump on a ride I have no interest in? What if my original ride was the last ride I wanted to jump on before I left the park to head back to the resort, now I have to hang around for an hour or more to come back to wait on a 30 minute line.

What this ultimately makes me fear is that it will force me to decide between waiting around doing things I may not want to do just to get the chance to ride the ride/rides I want or it will encourage me to want to buy a fast pass when I really don’t want to. Who’s to say then that Disney won’t over exaggerate the standby lines to encourage more people to buy fast passes? I’ve seen it already during a recent trip where nearly every posted standby wait was 15-20 minutes longer than the actual wait.

This system seems destined to force more people to choose between not having the vacation they planned for or having to constantly consider micro transactions to get on the rides they already paid a high park ticket fee to get on. Great for Disney investors… not so great for the rest of us just trying to live in the magic.

Great post…but I think I see the problem

 

[ImperfectPixie]

I was talking about New Jersey

…and stop saying “experience”

LOL...sorry...force of habit.

 

[ctrlaltdel]

I'm convinced Disney will have to implement dynamic pricing during the day for FastPass. They're looking to optimize revenue. The most practical way to do that is by adjusting the price during the day.

Excellent post. They will have to have those prices go way up when the line is long/DPA inventory is low to make it work. But if they have a target for what they want the line to be/how many DPA's they want to sell per day based on demand, dynamic pricing they can have a lot of control this way (plus additional revenue, which meh for me, but I see the appeal). If it's between $10-$20 flat rate per ride you're getting the worst of all worlds. Assuming you will see DPA prices go to $50+/person for the headliners during peak times if they go the dynamic pricing route.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

We celebrate 50 years only to go back full circle...

I think you're onto something. "Relive the memories of ride tickets during the 50th anniversary celebrations, using our all new modern Disney Premier Pass!"

You Both are COMPLETELY wrong and frankly out of line…

…they did not have Apple Pay in 1971

 

[pdude81]

Please consider wait times at WDW today with no FP+. Many attractions have wait times over 30 minutes within the first hour of park opening.

Demand for popular attractions exceed hourly capacity all day long. Standby lines form.

Many attractions have huge wait times at park opening. There is always going to be someone who does not want to wait the (for example) 50-minute Standby time posted for Flights of Passage at park opening. Those Guests are going to opt into Premier Pass early, creating even longer wait times.

View attachment 570116

On October 1 when onsite Guests (plus select hotels) are allowed in the parks 30 minutes early, you’re going to see long lines everywhere by the time official park opening rolls around.

When you think about it, Early Theme Park Entry feeds neatly into Premier Pass. “Let’s get all the queues primed so that by the time the parks open, there’s already a demand for Premier Pass.”

It’s a brilliant strategy. On site Guests think they are getting a benefit where, in reality, they simply are being used to create early morning demand for Premier Pass.

I don't doubt that the combination of all these things will drive sales. I just was saying they can't reserve capacity for the FP lines. They can change the merge ratios, but you can't reserve 50% of capacity for FP unless there are enough people to fill up that 50%.

For certain attractions each day or certain times of the year for C ticket rides, there might be enough paid volume for that. I just don't think the appetite is there most days now with a paid model. This all depends on whether they give out one free FP for all ticketed guests and let on-site book them upon check in or park entry. If you already factor in 25000 free fastpasses, then that already builds in a little more wait on standby and pressure to buy before all the paid fastpasses run out.

I guess we'll see what the demand really is for many paid passes once a system is announced for WDW.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Excellent post. They will have to have those prices go way up when the line is long/DPA inventory is low to make it work. But if they have a target for what they want the line to be/how many DPA's they want to sell per day based on demand, dynamic pricing they can have a lot of control this way (plus additional revenue, which meh for me, but I see the appeal). If it's between $10-$20 flat rate per ride you're getting the worst of all worlds. Assuming you will see DPA prices go to $50+/person for the headliners during peak times if they go the dynamic pricing route.

I can’t dispute anything you say…

…yet those figures are completely insane. Just nuts. There will never be a justification for that if you are a customer. None

 

[ctrlaltdel]

I can’t dispute anything you say…

…yet those figures are completely insane. Just nuts. There will never be a justification for that if you are a customer. None

Yeah, I will not pay for that price. Luckily (weird to say that for pay to play) for standby and DPA at that price, I think they will hit their revenue targets and also keep standby moving at a good clip (though I'm guessing you will still have to wait 2.5 hrs in standby virtual and regular standby). Doesn't do anything to fix the problems of capacity, but at least in an ideal world, standby will more or less continuously move, which may be less frustrating than when it was very start and stop.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Yeah, I will not pay for that price. Luckily (weird to say that for pay to play) for standby and DPA at that price, I think they will hit their revenue targets and also keep standby moving at a good clip (though I'm guessing you will still have to wait 2.5 hrs in standby virtual and regular standby). Doesn't do anything to fix the problems of capacity, but at least in an ideal world, standby will more or less continuously move, which may be less frustrating than when it was very start and stop.

I hope…I’m not into micro transactions for a product already purchased…

but my “thing” (I have a lot…this is one) is that there seems to be an assumption you can have reasonable waits and flow in fully open parks without fastpass…which is what’s required to move standby.

the problem? There was 20-25% less attendance the last day of park operation before fastpass was brought online. It was in the late 90’s.

we might be trying to squeeze a watermelon into a spot built for a cantaloupe

 

[Waters Back Side]

They can still implement this and make everyone happy if they allot DPA to all on site guests for free and offer deals to buy more passes for rides or shows etc. And they can also offer deals to the lesser attractions knowing that the once in a lifetime trip to Disney family, etc might decide to accept an exciting offer for 18 dollars per guest ride Peter Pan at 7pm. While the standby pass is their way of controlling line waits. I'm not blind or oblivious to the face Disney will try to make money off of this. No doubt this would be a monetary change but I do not think they will risk losing more money elsewhere as by charging all guests, they would lose people who want the meal plan or buying merchandise.

The more and more i think about this is I am on the boat with those who think this is not going to be as dramatic of a change price wise or systemically other then a new app to manage and receive offers or buy.

 

[lewisc]

I don't doubt that the combination of all these things will drive sales. I just was saying they can't reserve capacity for the FP lines. They can change the merge ratios, but you can't reserve 50% of capacity for FP unless there are enough people to fill up that 50%.

For certain attractions each day or certain times of the year for C ticket rides, there might be enough paid volume for that. I just don't think the appetite is there most days now with a paid model. This all depends on whether they give out one free FP for all ticketed guests and let on-site book them upon check in or park entry. If you already factor in 25000 free fastpasses, then that already builds in a little more wait on standby and pressure to buy before all the paid fastpasses run out.

I guess we'll see what the demand really is for many paid passes once a system is announced for WDW.

Disney can manipulate capacity. Run one track on space mountain. No reason why FP sales have to be limited to busy days