Elemental (Pixar - June 2023)

[TP2000]

It would be helpful if you read the actual articles you're quoting completely my friend.

All predictions are for the Worldwide totals, not domestic. They state it in their first paragraphs:

"Here are our predictions for what the top 10 of the summer will look like and what the worldwide gross of each film may be: "

It was before any box office tracking had started on any of those films.

Also and if it does worse than Lightyear, so what? Disney/Pixar will regroup, Iger already stated they are going back to do Toy Story 5 and Inside Out 2. So we know it'll be sequels again for awhile with Pixar.

Oh, really? I thought it was domestic.

So Elemental makes $600 Million globally? That seems... doable. Right?

 

[Disney Analyst]

Doesn’t seem like a stellar box office for any of the big films coming out. And with the ongoing writers strike, potential actors strike, and directors strike.. things aren’t looking great for Hollywood right now.

 

[Disney Analyst]

Mario just made over $1.3 billion - the box office potential is there, it’s about making movies people actually want to see.

And the DGA just signed a new contract, they did not strike.

Some films will continue to do insane business, hello Avatar and Mario.

Others are still not seeing the rebound.

The box office in general is still not what it once was, despite some success stories.

 

[Disney Irish]

Mario just made over $1.3 billion - the box office potential is there, it’s about making movies people actually want to see.

And the DGA just signed a new contract, they did not strike.

Box office still lags, which is the point. There are only a handful of movies that have been successful, and honestly they aren't stellar movies either. Mario was just an ok movie filled with memberberries for Nintendo fans.

2023 is still shaping up to be down 25-30% overall from prepandemic levels, it may not recover until 2025 or beyond if ever.

 

[MagicHappens1971]

Mario just made over $1.3 billion - the box office potential is there, it’s about making movies people actually want to see.

I am so sick of this "Mario just made over $1.3 Billion Dollars" narrative.
We're halfway through the year, and only one film has broken the $B mark. The movie industry is not what is used to be pre-Covid.

The Super Mario Bros. Movie	$1,315,451,610	$570,272,610	43.4%	$745,179,000	56.6%
2	Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3	$806,326,352	$335,600,773	41.6%	$470,725,579	58.4%
3	Fast X	$653,627,970	$138,201,970	21.1%	$515,426,000	78.9%
4	Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania	$476,069,301	$214,503,030	45.1%	$261,566,271	54.9%
5	John Wick: Chapter 4	$428,191,328	$187,077,847	43.7%	$241,113,481

2/5 Disney Films, TLM is #6

2022 Top 5 Grossing Films

1	Avatar: The Way of Water	$2,320,250,281	$684,075,767	29.5%	$1,636,174,514	70.5%
2	Top Gun: Maverick	$1,495,696,292	$718,732,821	48.1%	$776,963,471	51.9%
3	Jurassic World: Dominion	$1,001,978,080	$376,851,080	37.6%	$625,127,000	62.4%
4	Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness	$955,775,804	$411,331,607	43%	$544,444,197	57%
5	Minions: The Rise of Gru	$939,628,210	$369,695,210	39.3%	$569,933,000

2/5 Disney Films

2021

Spider-Man: No Way Home	$1,912,233,593	$804,793,477	42.1%	$1,107,440,116	57.9%
2	The Battle at Lake Changjin	$902,548,476	$342,411	<0.1%	$902,206,065	100%
3	Hi, Mom	$822,009,764	-	-	$822,009,764	100%
4	No Time to Die	$774,153,007	$160,891,007	20.8%	$613,262,000	79.2%
5	F9: The Fast Saga	$726,229,501	$173,005,945	23.8%	$553,223,556

(1 Disney (half Sony film)
2019

1	Avengers: Endgame	$2,799,439,100	$858,373,000	30.7%	$1,941,066,100	69.3%
2	The Lion King	$1,656,943,394	$543,638,043	32.8%	$1,113,305,351	67.2%
3	Frozen II	$1,450,026,933	$477,373,578	32.9%	$972,653,355	67.1%
4	Spider-Man: Far from Home	$1,131,927,996	$390,532,085	34.5%	$741,395,911	65.5%
5	Captain Marvel	$1,128,274,794	$426,829,839	37.8%	$701,444,955	62.2%

(All 5 of these are Disney (Spiderman is half Disney...but)

 

[DKampy]

Elemental is up to 80%…maybe the sky is not falling

 

[wtyy21]

Elemental is up to 80%…maybe the sky is not falling

However, Elemental did not yet receive an audience score. Meanwhile, DC-made The Flash, despite having lower Rotten Tomatoes score than Elemental (72%) due to Ezra Miller scandal, but the film have a audience score of 98%.

 

[spacemt354]

I am so sick of this "Mario just made over $1.3 Billion Dollars" narrative.

I don't think the film industry should be defined by how many films each year reach $1 Billion because many of those numbers rely on tentpole franchises to release highly anticipated sequels, prequels, or remakes to established franchises. So the number of films that make a billion can be predicted based on past trends and not some new phenomenon.

Halfway through 2023 has already seen the same # of Billion dollar films as 2014 in total.

Compare that to the 9 $1 Billion films in 2019, a year which was fortunate to include:

The most anticipated film ever (Avengers Endgame)
The lead up to the most anticipated film ever (Captain Marvel)
The continuation of the most anticipated film ever + a Spider-Man film (Far From Home)
Sequel to the highest grossing animated film at the time (Frozen II)
Sequel and conclusion of the Skywalker saga (Rise of Skywalker)
Sequel and conclusion(?) of the Toy Story franchise (Toy Story 4)
Remakes to two of the most beloved Disney animated classics (Lion King and Aladdin)

The one curveball billion film was Joker but that could speak to the quality of the performance and the legacy of the Joker character/Batman lore. Which ironically is the same type of 'narrative' for why Mario is so successful, as it's an entertaining film that appeases fans from a legacy brand.

 

[vikescaper]

However, Elemental did not yet receive an audience score. Meanwhile, DC-made The Flash, despite having lower Rotten Tomatoes score than Elemental (72%) due to Ezra Miller scandal, but the film have a audience score of 98%.
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The Flash has had fan screenings so that is why there is an audience score. I haven’t heard of any early previews for Elemental so that is why it doesn’t have an audience score.

 

[TsWade2]

I appreciate the reviews have 80%, but it's going to flop anyway. I would suggest Disney just fire Pete Docter before it's the end of Pixar.

 

[DCBaker]

A new clip from Elemental has been released.

 

[WorldExplorer]

Every character I've seen in this is ugly.

I know it's not a very well fleshed out thought, but I saw the plushes they released and dear God. Every character is ugly.

 

[TalkingHead]

Every character I've seen in this is ugly.

I know it's not a very well fleshed out thought, but I saw the plushes they released and dear God. Every character is ugly.

Visually discordant to put it mildly. Looks like half a dozen animation styles thrown into a blender.

 

[BrerFoxesBayouAdventure]

Every character I've seen in this is ugly.

I know it's not a very well fleshed out thought, but I saw the plushes they released and dear God. Every character is ugly.

At first I thought you were over-exaggerating, but then I checked:

 

[MisterPenguin]

People on fire generally look a lot cuter.

 

[MagicHappens1971]

I don't think the film industry should be defined by how many films each year reach $1 Billion

That's all well and good, but that is what most people are arguing on here. Films aren't successful unless they reach close to a billion or more. For 2023, I can see maybe Barbie, Mission Impossible, and the Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes getting close to or above the billion mark for the year.

I think for Disney, Elemental will flop, I was originally optimistic about Indy 5 (~$800M - $1B) but the early reviews have me skeptical, I think Wish will do pretty well, probably close to $700M+, the Marvels probably won't break $700-$800M (on the high end, either).

My point was, streaming and the pandemic have annihilated the box office (for the most part), with films like Mario being now the outlier and not the norm. People have been spoiled by the direct-to-streaming films, as well as the like 2-3 month max gap from release to streamer. I made a few examples of this throughout the thread, but I've seen Little Mermaid 3 times now. I wanted to see Air, but didn't want to waste the money, it went to streaming weeks after its release.

Movie tickets are ~$18, snacks can be up to another $18. I spent over $40 on just a movie and snacks for myself last week. It's hard for people to do that for a whole family right now. They can wait for it to drop on Disney+ or Max or what have you, pop a bag of popcorn and get some candy from the dollar store.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Another thing to consider:

If streaming on demand is killing cable with all the cord-cutting...

... what do you think it's doing to theaters?

 

[MagicHappens1971]

Another thing to consider:

If streaming on demand is killing cable with all the cord-cutting...

... what do you think it's doing to theaters?

Many are choosing to ignore this fact to play their narratives.

 

[Tha Realest]

Another thing to consider:

If streaming on demand is killing cable with all the cord-cutting...

... what do you think it's doing to theaters?

Good point!

Is there any indication Disney studios are considering this when green lighting film productions that cost $250-$300M?

 

[erasure fan1]

That's all well and good, but that is what most people are arguing on here. Films aren't successful unless they reach close to a billion or more.

People aren't arguing films need to do close to a billion to be successful. They're arguing that because of crazy overblown budgets they need to do close to a billion. There's a difference. A lot of people said The Muppets wasn't successful only making around 170mil. But the budget was only 45mil so it only needed around 130mil, so it made 40mil. Success! And no where close to a billion.

It's really not the fans putting the big box office expectations on the films. It's the studios and how much things cost. It is what is as they say.