Elemental (Pixar - June 2023)

[Vegas Disney Fan]

It’s going to take awhile, but I wouldn’t bet on Disney moving backwards. It’s more likely that its new audience will expand while the old one does what old ones eventually do.

What you propose will take decades, if it even happens. Disney can’t afford to keep releasing box office duds while they wait for the audience to change, especially since there’s no guarantee the audience will change how they want, in many ways the country is less tolerant now then it was 30 years ago, there‘s no way to predict how it will change over the next couple decades.

I don’t know that they’ll necessarily go backwards but I expect them to pump the breaks until the environment is more friendly to their changes.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Disney can’t afford to keep releasing box office duds

Yes, they can. Their live action Disney Studios did it for decades. Some big winners make up for all the losers. Most studios operate that way.

 

[Tha Realest]

Yes, they can. Their live action Disney Studios did it for decades. Some big winners make up for all the losers. Most studios operate that way.

But eventually the studios’ performance helped end the tenures of Ron Miller and Michael Eisner.

 

[TalkingHead]

Yes, they can. Their live action Disney Studios did it for decades. Some big winners make up for all the losers. Most studios operate that way.

Which was possible because the live action budgets were typically minuscule with fast productions. Animation is expensive, and the way Disney operates it’s doubly so. Harder to justify miss after miss when that kind of money and time are involved.

To add: Iger has trained investors to think in terms of franchises, so every miss is compounded: Elemental failing at the box office would mean there’s no Elemental 2, no Disney+ spin-off series, etc.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Which was possible because the live action budgets were typically minuscule with fast productions. Animation is expensive, and the way Disney operates it’s doubly so. Harder to justify miss after miss when that kind of money and time are involved.

Even if one were to count the straight-to-D+ movies as having losses in the hundreds of millions, the total *profit* of all Pixar movies is $1.2B.

Since 1990, DAS movies profited $1.5B.

Their continued existence brings in D+ subs and other continuing revenues and franchise fun in the parks.

To add: Iger has trained investors to think in terms of franchises, so every miss is compounded: Elemental failing at the box office would mean there’s no Elemental 2, no Disney+ spin-off series, etc.

There doesn't need to be if we're getting Toy Store 4 and Frozen 3 and who knows what other franchises Disney will lean into.

But I don't think that will stop new stories eventually getting back in the rotation in the hopes of creating new franchises.

Reading the tea leaves, this hard pivot into franchises is only brought about because of stock malaise, and Disney needs to find the money to make up for pandemic shortfalls and to find couch money to restart paying dividends (cf. 7,000 people laid off and writing-off certain content from D+/Hulu).

Only a few months ago before the Peltz drama, Iger's take on Lightyear was to question whether they should keep going back to the same well if doing so just dries it up. Recent events seem to have changed that thinking.

 

[TalkingHead]

Even if one were to count the straight-to-D+ movies as having losses in the hundreds of millions, the total *profit* of all Pixar movies is $1.2B.

Since 1990, DAS movies profited $1.5B.

Their continued existence brings in D+ subs and other continuing revenues and franchise fun in the parks.

That’s ancient history to current investors. Sad but true. You might as well be citing the profitability of Disney features since 1937 for all the difference that makes.

The canonical titles may drive some D+ subscriptions but I doubt movies like Soul or Turning Red move the needle. Which is the issue: making expensive movies that underperform and then land on a streaming service with a thud, failing to generate franchises, is Iger’s worst nightmare. Based on his song and dance for what modern Disney is, it’s impossible to sell that as successful to the big shrewd investors.

 

[Disstevefan1]

Their continued existence brings in D+ subs

But is it not a fact, D+ is losing domestic subscribers?

 

[MisterPenguin]

I doubt movies like Soul or Turning Red move the needle.

I don't think huge numbers signed up because of these films... the pandemic was more a cause of sub growth at the time.

But they did hit Nielsen's top ten when they did hit D+. Turning Red was in the top ten streamed movies for 26 weeks. So, they're the type of 'library films' that'd keep people subbed.

 

[MisterPenguin]

But is it not a fact, D+ is losing domestic subscribers?

In the U.S. and Canada, D+ went from 46,600,000 subs to 46,300,000. That's a 0.6% drop.

When Netflix had their dip in subs, they lost close to 2 million subs, but then made that back up. Netflix was hitting market saturation.

Also, there's seasonal variations. And D+ is hitting Domestic saturation.

But, at that same time, International subs (excluding Hoststar) went from 104,300,000 to 104,900,000. That's an increase of 600,000 whose ARPU is just about $5.93 (domestic ARPU is $7.14).

So, Domestic lost $2,142,000 off the monthly revenue while International gained $3,558,000.

Meanwhile, at Hulu, subs there went up 200,000 while Hulu Live went down 100,000 for a net gain of 100,000.

D+ will benefit once Hulu is integrated like it is Internationally.

 

[DCBaker]

The trailer for Carl's Date has been released. This Pixar short will play in front of Elemental.

 

[Phroobar]

The trailer for Carl's Date has been released. This Pixar short will play in front of Elemental.

I wonder how many Doug Days episodes Ed Asner did before he died. They definitely had a second season in the works.

 

[CaptainMickey]

It’s going to take awhile, but I wouldn’t bet on Disney moving backwards. It’s more likely that its new audience will expand while the old one does what old ones eventually do.

I find it ironic that the current Pixar brass agrees with you and that strategy which is continuing to kill the Pixar brand. That current strategy is going to turn Pixar into the dinosaur. Sticking to what will entertain mass market worldwide family audiences isn't "moving backwards". Any theater release with Buzz Lightyear in it should be a slam dunk billion dollar movie. Just ask Mario. And when the brand starts getting tarnished, people stop caring about their next big thing, like Elemental. Pixar's goodwill is pretty much gone for new stuff now. Same for Star Wars, Marvel D+, etc.

 

[Chi84]

I find it ironic that the current Pixar brass agrees with you and that strategy which is continuing to kill the Pixar brand. That current strategy is going to turn Pixar into the dinosaur. Sticking to what will entertain mass market worldwide family audiences isn't "moving backwards". Any theater release with Buzz Lightyear in it should be a slam dunk billion dollar movie. Just ask Mario. And when the brand starts getting tarnished, people stop caring about their next big thing, like Elemental. Pixar's goodwill is pretty much gone for new stuff now. Same for Star Wars, Marvel D+, etc.

I agree they need to make more entertaining movies if they want people in the theaters instead of waiting for Disney+. I recently saw both Lightyear and Strange World. Cute, but not good enough to draw huge audiences.

 

[Ghost93]

On the bright side, the Rotten Tomatoes score for Elemental is now in the 70s. Not great, but far better than the Rotten score it received coming out of Cannes.

I still expect it to flop, but I'm honestly more excited about Elemental than The Flash. I'm beginning to lose interest in multiverse movies.

 

[Phroobar]

This is my opinion and you can disagree if you want.

It's strange, but Disney animation seems to go through time periods where they are making a lot of duds.

1978 - 88 (besides The Great Mouse Detective)
2000 - 08 (Pixar takes the lead)
2018 - ? (Both Disney and Pixar suck)

1978-88 is also the time when Disney tried to expand and innovate. The Black Cauldron was suppose to be something to rival Sleeping Beauty in art style. The problem was it wasn't traditional Disney. No songs and too dark for kids. It wasn't a fairy tale people knew. It didn't help that someone let Katzenberg into the editing room.

The Fox and the Hound while beautifully animated but was kind of boring. The Great Mouse Detective was too dark and no songs. Oliver & Company had songs but was just a retelling of Oliver Twist with dogs.

2000-2008 There was a glut in the market. Disney was releasing too many movies and competing against itself. There were two to three Disney/Pixar movies per year. It is the Star Wars effect of too much takes away from the specialness of the product. It didn't help that Disney was competing against Pixar with Chicken Little, Bolt, Meet the Robinsons and third party want to be Pixar houses (Valiant & The Wild).

 

[Disstevefan1]

We all know what the plot is but if they put in enough funny stuff in it there is a chance it won’t flop.

 

[Ghost93]

1978-88 is also the time when Disney tried to expand and innovate. The Black Cauldron was suppose to be something to rival Sleeping Beauty in art style. The problem was it wasn't traditional Disney. No songs and too dark for kids. It wasn't a fairy tale people knew. It didn't help that someone let Katzenberg into the editing room.

Eh, I think the Black Cauldron didn't work due to bland characters, lackluster worldbuilding, poor pacing and a weak climax. The art style and the dark tone were not the issues with the movie. If it were a great movie but dark, it would have eventually built up a reputation and a much stronger fandom over the years. But it's simply not good enough.

 

[TP2000]

While we wait for the film to open this weekend, here's an article mentioned in another thread. Yahoo News (yes, a ridiculous example of "news", but that's the state of journalism today all over) predicts that Elemental will bring in $600 Million in domestic box office. Not a typo. $600 Million, from just the theaters in the USA, not including global box office.

The summary from the article is mostly wishful pablum (again, "journalism" today), but that very last sentence is a doozy. What if, and some folks here should sit down for this, Elemental does even worse than Lightyear? What then?

7. 'Elemental' — $600 million​

Could this be a rebound summer for Pixar? The animation studio had a rough season last year, as its Toy Story spinoff Lightyear wildly disappointed with a disastrous $226 million worldwide haul. If part of the reason for that was that audiences were conditioned during the pandemic to wait and watch Pixar movies on Disney+, then the studio's next film, Elemental, could also be in trouble. But if Lightyear's failure was specific to issues with that movie and its confusing "the real Buzz Lightyear that the toy is based on" hook, then Elemental could see the studio bounce back. Set in a city where the elements of fire, water, land, and air live together, it looks like sort of a cross between Inside Out and Zootopia, both of which were huge hits, as the former grossed $858 million and the latter took in $1 billion. But if Elemental performs closer to Lightyear, some soul-searching about the state of the Pixar brand will be in order.

What will be the highest-grossing film of summer 2023?

Which beloved franchise will prevail?

news.yahoo.com

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

This is my opinion and you can disagree if you want.

It's strange, but Disney animation seems to go through time periods where they are making a lot of duds.

1978 - 88 (besides The Great Mouse Detective)
2000 - 08 (Pixar takes the lead)
2018 - ? (Both Disney and Pixar suck)

They do tend to have a 10 year cycle of good/bad movies, just 5 more years and we can expect movie gold.

 

[Disney Irish]

While we wait for the film to open this weekend, here's an article mentioned in another thread. Yahoo News (yes, a ridiculous example of "news", but that's the state of journalism today all over) predicts that Elemental will bring in $600 Million in domestic box office. Not a typo. $600 Million, from just the theaters in the USA, not including global box office.

The summary from the article is mostly wishful pablum (again, "journalism" today), but that very last sentence is a doozy. What if, and some folks here should sit down for this, Elemental does even worse than Lightyear? What then?

7. 'Elemental' — $600 million​

Could this be a rebound summer for Pixar? The animation studio had a rough season last year, as its Toy Story spinoff Lightyear wildly disappointed with a disastrous $226 million worldwide haul. If part of the reason for that was that audiences were conditioned during the pandemic to wait and watch Pixar movies on Disney+, then the studio's next film, Elemental, could also be in trouble. But if Lightyear's failure was specific to issues with that movie and its confusing "the real Buzz Lightyear that the toy is based on" hook, then Elemental could see the studio bounce back. Set in a city where the elements of fire, water, land, and air live together, it looks like sort of a cross between Inside Out and Zootopia, both of which were huge hits, as the former grossed $858 million and the latter took in $1 billion. But if Elemental performs closer to Lightyear, some soul-searching about the state of the Pixar brand will be in order.

What will be the highest-grossing film of summer 2023?

Which beloved franchise will prevail?

news.yahoo.com

Article is a bit outdated there my friend, its from April....