mickEblu
Well-Known Member
I expect the strong world building with a so-so story. Probably not enough to make it a classic but enough to keep you entertained and considering their last few films, I'll take it.
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Elemental (Pixar - June 2023)
- Thread starter DCBaker
- Start date
I expect the strong world building with a so-so story. Probably not enough to make it a classic but enough to keep you entertained and considering their last few films, I'll take it.
Vegas Disney Fan
Well-Known Member
Those forecasts are shockingly low.Box Office Pro certainly not confident based on current tracking:
Long Range Box Office Forecast: INSIDIOUS: THE RED DOOR and JOY RIDE - Boxoffice
This week's report takes a look at two new releases slated for the post-Independence Day holiday weekend, plus updated tracking for other upcoming titles.www.boxofficepro.com
It’s amazing how far Disney movies have fallen in the last couple years.
I guess it's going to flop. I think they should stick to sequels for awhile.
vikescaper
Well-Known Member
I’m surprised Disney did not move Elemental to a different time of the year. It is opening the same weekend as The Flash so it won’t have all PLF screens and it is also opening a few weeks after Across the Spider-verse.
TalkingHead
Well-Known Member
That’s impossible to know. Moviegoing habits and the market have fundamentally changed since 2019. The numbers may say ticket sales have rebounded but the kinds of movies that ppl are willing to pay to see are a very narrow type: IP/sequels. Almost no original concepts are making bank. Last year Elvis was one of the few, and even that was a kind of biopic IP.
I’m still not convinced multiplex theaters are going to be in business in a decade, and Disney may very well be the canary in the coal mine.
Chi84
Premium Member
It’s going to take awhile, but I wouldn’t bet on Disney moving backwards. It’s more likely that its new audience will expand while the old one does what old ones eventually do.
Vegas Disney Fan
Well-Known Member
What you propose will take decades, if it even happens. Disney can’t afford to keep releasing box office duds while they wait for the audience to change, especially since there’s no guarantee the audience will change how they want, in many ways the country is less tolerant now then it was 30 years ago, there‘s no way to predict how it will change over the next couple decades.
I don’t know that they’ll necessarily go backwards but I expect them to pump the breaks until the environment is more friendly to their changes.
Yes, they can. Their live action Disney Studios did it for decades. Some big winners make up for all the losers. Most studios operate that way.
Tha Realest
Well-Known Member
But eventually the studios’ performance helped end the tenures of Ron Miller and Michael Eisner.
TalkingHead
Well-Known Member
Which was possible because the live action budgets were typically minuscule with fast productions. Animation is expensive, and the way Disney operates it’s doubly so. Harder to justify miss after miss when that kind of money and time are involved.
To add: Iger has trained investors to think in terms of franchises, so every miss is compounded: Elemental failing at the box office would mean there’s no Elemental 2, no Disney+ spin-off series, etc.
Even if one were to count the straight-to-D+ movies as having losses in the hundreds of millions, the total *profit* of all Pixar movies is $1.2B.
Since 1990, DAS movies profited $1.5B.
Their continued existence brings in D+ subs and other continuing revenues and franchise fun in the parks.
There doesn't need to be if we're getting Toy Store 4 and Frozen 3 and who knows what other franchises Disney will lean into.
But I don't think that will stop new stories eventually getting back in the rotation in the hopes of creating new franchises.
Reading the tea leaves, this hard pivot into franchises is only brought about because of stock malaise, and Disney needs to find the money to make up for pandemic shortfalls and to find couch money to restart paying dividends (cf. 7,000 people laid off and writing-off certain content from D+/Hulu).
Only a few months ago before the Peltz drama, Iger's take on Lightyear was to question whether they should keep going back to the same well if doing so just dries it up. Recent events seem to have changed that thinking.
TalkingHead
Well-Known Member
That’s ancient history to current investors. Sad but true. You might as well be citing the profitability of Disney features since 1937 for all the difference that makes.
The canonical titles may drive some D+ subscriptions but I doubt movies like Soul or Turning Red move the needle. Which is the issue: making expensive movies that underperform and then land on a streaming service with a thud, failing to generate franchises, is Iger’s worst nightmare. Based on his song and dance for what modern Disney is, it’s impossible to sell that as successful to the big shrewd investors.
Disstevefan1
Well-Known Member
But is it not a fact, D+ is losing domestic subscribers?
I don't think huge numbers signed up because of these films... the pandemic was more a cause of sub growth at the time.
But they did hit Nielsen's top ten when they did hit D+. Turning Red was in the top ten streamed movies for 26 weeks. So, they're the type of 'library films' that'd keep people subbed.
In the U.S. and Canada, D+ went from 46,600,000 subs to 46,300,000. That's a 0.6% drop.
When Netflix had their dip in subs, they lost close to 2 million subs, but then made that back up. Netflix was hitting market saturation.
Also, there's seasonal variations. And D+ is hitting Domestic saturation.
But, at that same time, International subs (excluding Hoststar) went from 104,300,000 to 104,900,000. That's an increase of 600,000 whose ARPU is just about $5.93 (domestic ARPU is $7.14).
So, Domestic lost $2,142,000 off the monthly revenue while International gained $3,558,000.
Meanwhile, at Hulu, subs there went up 200,000 while Hulu Live went down 100,000 for a net gain of 100,000.
D+ will benefit once Hulu is integrated like it is Internationally.
Phroobar
Well-Known Member
I wonder how many Doug Days episodes Ed Asner did before he died. They definitely had a second season in the works.
CaptainMickey
Well-Known Member
I find it ironic that the current Pixar brass agrees with you and that strategy which is continuing to kill the Pixar brand. That current strategy is going to turn Pixar into the dinosaur. Sticking to what will entertain mass market worldwide family audiences isn't "moving backwards". Any theater release with Buzz Lightyear in it should be a slam dunk billion dollar movie. Just ask Mario. And when the brand starts getting tarnished, people stop caring about their next big thing, like Elemental. Pixar's goodwill is pretty much gone for new stuff now. Same for Star Wars, Marvel D+, etc.
Chi84
Premium Member
I agree they need to make more entertaining movies if they want people in the theaters instead of waiting for Disney+. I recently saw both Lightyear and Strange World. Cute, but not good enough to draw huge audiences.
MickeyMouse10
Well-Known Member
This is my opinion and you can disagree if you want.
It's strange, but Disney animation seems to go through time periods where they are making a lot of duds.
1978 - 88 (besides The Great Mouse Detective)
2000 - 08 (Pixar takes the lead)
2018 - ? (Both Disney and Pixar suck)
It's strange, but Disney animation seems to go through time periods where they are making a lot of duds.
1978 - 88 (besides The Great Mouse Detective)
2000 - 08 (Pixar takes the lead)
2018 - ? (Both Disney and Pixar suck)