Elemental (Pixar - June 2023)

[MagicHappens1971]

People aren't arguing films need to do close to a billion to be successful. They're arguing that because of crazy overblown budgets they need to do close to a billion.

It's really not the fans putting the big box office expectations on the films. It's the studios and how much things cost. It is what is as they say.

These two statements basically contradict each other. You say it's not the fans, but then say they're arguing because of crazy overblown budgets they "need" to do close to a billion.

Did we all become Studio Exec's last night? Box office isn't the only source of revenue for a film, and box office has a finite source of revenue for the company, it's how the studios leverage these "IPs". Whether it be through Merchandising, new F&B offerings in the parks, partnerships with other brands (something they did heavily with TLM), the post-theatrical window, when it jumps onto Disney+ and pay-per-view watching for those who don't have the streamer. Who are we to judge how "successful" a film is? For example, since the most recent "hot button" film topic has been The Little Mermaid, the films "inflated" or "overblown" budget was probably a direct result of delays due to the pandemic. Similar live-action's budgets weren't really that far off, Aladdin ($183M), The Lion King ($250M), Beauty and the Beast ($160M - $225M). The Little Mermaid's problem is the international reception, for example, it's only about $100M short (domestically) of what Aladdin made. But internationally, it's ~$500M short.

 

[Disney Irish]

That's all well and good, but that is what most people are arguing on here. Films aren't successful unless they reach close to a billion or more. For 2023, I can see maybe Barbie, Mission Impossible, and the Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes getting close to or above the billion mark for the year.

I think for Disney, Elemental will flop, I was originally optimistic about Indy 5 (~$800M - $1B) but the early reviews have me skeptical, I think Wish will do pretty well, probably close to $700M+, the Marvels probably won't break $700-$800M (on the high end, either).

My point was, streaming and the pandemic have annihilated the box office (for the most part), with films like Mario being now the outlier and not the norm. People have been spoiled by the direct-to-streaming films, as well as the like 2-3 month max gap from release to streamer. I made a few examples of this throughout the thread, but I've seen Little Mermaid 3 times now. I wanted to see Air, but didn't want to waste the money, it went to streaming weeks after its release.

Movie tickets are ~$18, snacks can be up to another $18. I spent over $40 on just a movie and snacks for myself last week. It's hard for people to do that for a whole family right now. They can wait for it to drop on Disney+ or Max or what have you, pop a bag of popcorn and get some candy from the dollar store.

I disagree on Barbie and the Hunger Games prequel getting close to $1B....

But agree with the rest. Box office is still down 25-30% compared to prepandemic levels, it may never fully recover.

 

[BlakeW39]

That's all well and good, but that is what most people are arguing on here. Films aren't successful unless they reach close to a billion or more. For 2023, I can see maybe Barbie, Mission Impossible, and the Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes getting close to or above the billion mark for the year.

I think for Disney, Elemental will flop, I was originally optimistic about Indy 5 (~$800M - $1B) but the early reviews have me skeptical, I think Wish will do pretty well, probably close to $700M+, the Marvels probably won't break $700-$800M (on the high end, either).

My point was, streaming and the pandemic have annihilated the box office (for the most part), with films like Mario being now the outlier and not the norm. People have been spoiled by the direct-to-streaming films, as well as the like 2-3 month max gap from release to streamer. I made a few examples of this throughout the thread, but I've seen Little Mermaid 3 times now. I wanted to see Air, but didn't want to waste the money, it went to streaming weeks after its release.

Movie tickets are ~$18, snacks can be up to another $18. I spent over $40 on just a movie and snacks for myself last week. It's hard for people to do that for a whole family right now. They can wait for it to drop on Disney+ or Max or what have you, pop a bag of popcorn and get some candy from the dollar store.

I get movie tickets for like $10... and I get my snacks at walmart

 

[MagicHappens1971]

I get movie tickets for like $10... and I get my snacks at walmart

Must be nice. Movie tickets where I live are $18 for a standard movie.

 

[BlakeW39]

Must be nice. Movie tickets where I live are $18 for a standard movie.

$18 is steep. I think I saw GOTG for like $7+ a ticket

 

[DKampy]

Must be nice. Movie tickets where I live are $18 for a standard movie.

We usually go once a week…usually Sundays for a Matinee at about $9…once in awhile Friday nights for an event movie we are excited about for $13…we usually don‘t have snacks, but usually sneak in a bottle of soda/water…usually go for lunch/dinner before/after….we still find it is one of the cheapest forms of entertainment for us; but it is just my wife and I…I imagine it can get expensive for a family with 2 or more kids..,I am a little surprised it is the family movies that are the ones to usually breakthrough

 

[wtyy21]

Elemental projected to have $35 million domestic box office at its opening weekend, that would make it the 2nd worst opening weekend for the Pixar film.

‘The Flash’ Targets $70 Million, Pixar’s ‘Elemental’ Aims for $35 Million in Underwhelming Box Office Battle

"The Flash" opens at the box office against Pixar's "Elemental."

variety.com

There's a many reasons why Elemental will underperform at theaters. First, due to lack of extensive marketing for this film, which Pixar hasn't learned since Lightyear's flop last year, although there are billboards and merchandise about the film, but still less than how other blockbuster films do similar. Second, there's a lot of box office summer competition this year, with many of them going to superhero-like and action films (Across the Spider-Verse and The Flash are these case), and third, is how WB-owned DC moved the release date of the Flash movie from supposedly June 23 to June 16 (clashed with Elemental release date previously announced at D23) because of positive test screening of the DC-made film.

Meanwhile, clashing date of both big-budget films released at the same time often makes more choice for the moviegoers depending on the tastes of the audience. Despite underperforming box office performance, Elemental will benefit from kids and family moviegoers who didn't want to watch a film with Ezra Miller that being notorious for his crimes.

Example of Elemental promotion billboard from @cottage_shroom twitter account:

 

[erasure fan1]

These two statements basically contradict each other. You say it's not the fans, but then say they're arguing because of crazy overblown budgets they "need" to do close to a billion.

It's not contradictory at all. The billion dollars is irreverent. A billion comes up because that's the number, it's just math. So because of the budgets, the films need to do close to a billion. And that's not the fans, it's the studios.

Did we all become Studio Exec's last night? Box office isn't the only source of revenue for a film, and box office has a finite source of revenue for the company, it's how the studios leverage these "IPs". Whether it be through Merchandising, new F&B offerings in the parks, partnerships with other brands (something they did heavily with TLM),

I get that and I totally agree. The Cars franchise was 100% that model. But the back and forth is about the theatrical window. Maybe the little mermaid makes $150mil in live action Ariel dolls. But that's not what people are talking about. It's when this movies theatrical run ends, will the film have made, or lost money. And by all accounts, it needs 800mil plus to profit.

 

[DKampy]

And by all accounts, it needs 800mil plus to profit.

By all accounts? Your the only account I have seen that high

 

[erasure fan1]

By all accounts? Your the only account I have seen that high

Well, I'm not.

Where are you getting this from?

Production budget of $250 million.
Marketing budget of $150 million.
Total cost of $400 million.

Break-even is $800 million.

 

[DKampy]

Well, I'm not.

Ahhh…I think I confuses you with captain America …at any rate the only place I heard the 800 figure were a couple of random people on a Disney fan forum…I have not seen it that high from any analysts including some Disney cynics…hardly all

 

[erasure fan1]

Ahhh…I think I confuses you with captain America …at any rate the only place I heard the 800 figure were a couple of random people on a Disney fan forum…I have not seen it that high from any analysts including some Disney cynics…hardly all

Well the math works out either way. We know the budget was about $250mil. The marketing side is more grey but like cap said, it's being reported at $150mil from deadline. Even on the conservative side, you're at $750mil for break even.

 

[spacemt354]

That's all well and good, but that is what most people are arguing on here. Films aren't successful unless they reach close to a billion or more. For 2023, I can see maybe Barbie, Mission Impossible, and the Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes getting close to or above the billion mark for the year.

Films with large budgets need to have larger box office pulls to be successful, but there are many examples of lower budget horror, rom-coms, comedy, that successfully turn a profit thanks to their smaller budgets.

My point was, streaming and the pandemic have annihilated the box office (for the most part), with films like Mario being now the outlier and not the norm. People have been spoiled by the direct-to-streaming films, as well as the like 2-3 month max gap from release to streamer. I made a few examples of this throughout the thread, but I've seen Little Mermaid 3 times now. I wanted to see Air, but didn't want to waste the money, it went to streaming weeks after its release.

Movie tickets are ~$18, snacks can be up to another $18. I spent over $40 on just a movie and snacks for myself last week. It's hard for people to do that for a whole family right now. They can wait for it to drop on Disney+ or Max or what have you, pop a bag of popcorn and get some candy from the dollar store.

Annihilated is hyperbolic. As I pointed out, the number of billion dollar films in 2023 is the same as 2014. Historically speaking, no Mission Impossible film has made $1 Billion at the box office. But if the next installment is a hit, then it could get to $1 Billion, but a $700-900 million pull would be more likely based on previous track records.

Streaming has absolutely cut into box office for films that perhaps folks were on the fence about, or wouldn't bother seeing a 2nd time because it'll be on platforms in a few months. But if the film connects with the majority, people will still rush out to see it. Streaming simply allows people to be more selective and go to the theater only when they truly want to, which mainly hurts poorly received films and not well-received ones.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Ahhh…I think I confuses you with captain America …at any rate the only place I heard the 800 figure were a couple of random people on a Disney fan forum…I have not seen it that high from any analysts including some Disney cynics…hardly all

Deadline Magazine, one of the leading trade publications for Hollywood, reports that The Little Mermaid had a production budget of $250 million and a marketing budget of $150 million.

Disney collects 50% of box office receipts, at best. Worse for international.

How much box office do you need to cover $400 million of costs?

$800 million.

The only articles that claim that Disney can break even with a smaller box office are ones that count money Disney will pay to ITSELF to show The Little Mermaid on Disney+, which is, of course, nonsense.

 

[WorldExplorer]

At first I thought you were over-exaggerating, but then I checked:

View attachment 723529

Those aren't even the ugliest ones.

 

[DKampy]

Well the math works out either way. We know the budget was about $250mil. The marketing side is more grey but like cap said, it's being reported at $150mil from deadline. Even on the conservative side, you're at $750mil for break eve

Deadline Magazine, one of the leading trade publications for Hollywood, reports that The Little Mermaid had a production budget of $250 million and a marketing budget of $150 million.

Disney collects 50% of box office receipts, at best. Worse for international.

How much box office do you need to cover $400 million of costs?

$800 million

The only articles that claim that Disney can break even with a smaller box office are ones that count money Disney will pay to ITSELF to show The Little Mermaid on Disney+, which is, of course, nonsense.

Well from what I hear the studio gets 60% of the profits the 1st week, 55% the 2nd week and then 50% for all weeks after the third week…most movies make most of their money in the first 2 weeks…which is why they say 2.5 times the films costs roughly

 

[BlakeW39]

What was Disney doing before?

Designing competent theme parks.

 

[Chi84]

Designing competent theme parks.

This thread is about their movies.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Elemental is going hard on marketing. If this flops, I'll have a good laugh at least.

I thought there was no advertising for Elemental?

 

[Chi84]

I thought there was no advertising for Elemental?

Modern-day Disney is not for everyone, but I think it has a place and is doing something right. I’m a fan. If it fails, it fails.