Do you think that Disney world will reclose its gates due to the rising number of COVID cases in Florida and around the country?

Bwrinks

New Member
My doctorate was in this.

There was a severe upward ark on prices from the late 90’s through about 2008ish... and jumped again 2012-15...and has slowed somewhat.

They actually ran into their pricing wall at some places...wilderness lodge being the poster child.

The standard rates starting at WL in the year 2000 was $99 a night. And was $355 but time they stut half down and gutted them for timeshares in 2015.

...if you believe in “coincidences”
The price increases through the 90s and early 2000s make some sense. 2 new theme parks, 2 new water parks. As for the 2012-2015 increases, I agree they hit a wall and limited supply through the DVC conversions at Beach club, AKL Jambo, Boardwalk and probably others I’m missing which have continued through recently at the Poly. I’m not sure if there are any other conversions in process.
 

OrlandoRising

Well-Known Member
So, several large-scale, double-blinded clinical trials (the gold standard in medical research) found no benefit, but a Fox News contributor quotes three month old opinion polls among physicians, from before these trial results were known and hydroxychloroquine was the most well-publicized clinical lead at the time. And a limited, non-blinded trial that also used corticosteroids. That's her evidence. I'll take the New England Journal of Medicine on this one, thank you.

Time to move on. Hydroxychloroquine was an intriguing idea and I would have been thrilled if it panned out, but its all but dead as both a treatment and prophylactic for COVID-19. (one interesting trial still going on in Britain, but I anticipate the results will be the final nail in the coffin). Give it up.

Thank you.


An opinion piece from a conservative pundit doesn't outweigh substantial evidence from controlled clinical trials.

Friendly reminder that my day job is reporting on health misinformation.
 

Bwrinks

New Member
Preach.

Nobody believes me when I say it...and I analyzed numbers for them for a time
The fixed costs (real estate taxes, LT maintenance, DEBT FINANCING) are not going away no matter what. But I still think there is no way they make a gross profit (basically ticket prices, concessions, and hotels minus the daily operating costs such as a staffing, utilities, transportation, short term ride maintenance, security, etc...) for a long time.
In my opinion this opening can be viewed 2 ways:
1) they have to start somewhere and are willing to absorb short term losses as they grow back the biz
2) this is all a charade to convince Wall Street and their lenders that WDW is back
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
I watched the whole series again with my teenage son. Nobody in his school understands his Ferengi t-shirt. I’m either the best or worst dad in the world.

Currently watching the V miniseries with him.
Not sure about the quark gear...

But those are great episodic shows. Explored all kinds of issues and some before their time.

I wish - cough - another IP could get some decent story telling back again
 

Kman101

Well-Known Member
“One term” is the phrase that comes to mind.

The die is cast.

And Orlando is 90% tourism dependent. Locals never want to believe it...but they live it. Disney fans don’t want to believe it...but they’ve never done the research...

It is what it is.

Yep. Not sure how locals don't seem to understand it's tourism. I mean ... they live there, LOL. They can't believe the packed parks are all locals. Look at Universal. Empty because they're more reliant on locals and passholders. Sure they've gotten a nice boost since 2010, but they also get a boost from a thriving Disney ...
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
The fixed costs (real estate taxes, LT maintenance, DEBT FINANCING) are not going away no matter what. But I still think there is no way they make a gross profit (basically ticket prices, concessions, and hotels minus the daily operating costs such as a staffing, utilities, transportation, short term ride maintenance, security, etc...) for a long time.
In my opinion this opening can be viewed 2 ways:
1) they have to start somewhere and are willing to absorb short term losses as they grow back the biz
2) this is all a charade to convince Wall Street and their lenders that WDW is back
You’re probably dead on.

Don’t forget the legality of those 5,000+ timeshare units they sold too...
...it’s a big issue that nobody really will talk about.
 

SoFloMagic

Well-Known Member
Wasn't a major reported decline in average age directly correlated with the rise in cases? Won't that help keep deaths associated with that increase down?
I heard a deeply concerning take on it today from a doctor. She said the deaths will trail the cases significantly right now in Florida as it will take a while for the young people to give it to parents and grandparents, then for them to become sick and sadly for some to likely die.

Usually they say deaths trail by a month. This guess was 45-60 days. I guess we'll know in a couple weeks. I certainly hope she's wrong
 

TrojanUSC

Well-Known Member
The price increases through the 90s and early 2000s make some sense. 2 new theme parks, 2 new water parks. As for the 2012-2015 increases, I agree they hit a wall and limited supply through the DVC conversions at Beach club, AKL Jambo, Boardwalk and probably others I’m missing which have continued through recently at the Poly. I’m not sure if there are any other conversions in process.

Sort of. The reason they were built was primarily to get guests to stay longer. A guest shouldn't have to pay more for the 4th theme park if they are staying two nights.
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
This post is not going to age well. The infection rate just spiked in the past 2 weeks. That number will certainly catch up.

I sincerely hope I'm wrong. 🤞
Frankly....none of the “hoaxer” leaning comments have aged well.
The biggest example is how many who posted in April in May the mantra of “the cure can’t be worse than the disease!” They know who they are.

Terrible...completely incorrect and that’s dangerous.

Ban me...I’m so sad/frustrated that the country we were taught from the age of 5 we lived in...doesn’t really exist.

Everyone wants to defend “freedom”...except the freedom to speak the truth and learn from our mistakes. It’s like a mental “elephant” sitting on everyone’s neck at this point.
When perception has all the consideration and truth has almost none.
Disneyland is the Locals park. Not Wdw.
Even Disney says that on a damn near daily basis...but locals in Florida tend not to believe it...

But they will believe that every price increase is because “guests wanted it”

...World gone completely mad.
 

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
Frankly....none of the “hoaxer” leaning comments have aged well.
The biggest example is how many who posted in April in May the mantra of “the cure can’t be worse than the disease!” They know who they are.

Terrible...completely incorrect and that’s dangerous.

Ban me...I’m so sad/frustrated that the country we were taught from the age of 5 we lived in...doesn’t really exist.

Everyone wants to defend “freedom”...except the freedom to speak the truth and learn from our mistakes. It’s like a mental “elephant” sitting on everyone’s neck at this point.
When perception has all the consideration and truth has almost none.
Even Disney says that on a damn near daily basis...but locals in Florida tend not to believe it...

But they will believe that every price increase is because “guests wanted it”

...World gone completely mad.

I still say the cure can't be worse than the disease. I still say that the measures that were taken and are still being taken in some cases are taking away moments, memories, enjoyment and quality of life from the 99%+ of the population that wouldn't die from COVID-19 even if every single person in the world contracted it.

Yes, it's sad that 130,000 people have died in the USA from this disease. Yes, it's sad that thousands more will probably die from it. However, it's also sad that tens of millions of people have postponed weddings, haven't been able to attend funerals (no matter the cause of death) and haven't been able to have birthday celebrations for their children.

It's sad that elementary school children have had to do distance learning that many college students struggle to get a real education out of. It's really sad that special needs children like my autistic nephew have missed out on months of education and therapy because he gets absolutely nothing from staring at a teacher on a screen.

Not to mention billions of people missing out on months of normal life and enjoyment of recreation. Civilization has progressed to the point that the point of life isn't just to survive and procreate like animals. Adults have probably an average of 50 years (18-68) where they are fully healthy and able to fully enjoy life. Well, close to 1% of everybody's quality adult life has been taken away by trying to hide from a virus where over 80% of the fatalities are over 65 years old, the average age of a fatality is somewhere around 80 and a huge percentage of the fatalities are elderly people who live in nursing homes.

Contrary to the image we'd all like to have, most nursing home residents aren't happily knitting, enjoying visits from their grandchildren and playing bridge all day with their friends. People who need to live in a nursing home are normally very old and have several medical conditions. While "all life is precious," I would feel differently if children and young adults had a high mortality rate like they did with the Spanish Flu.

And, yes, I strongly believe that my rights should not be restricted because I might get infected with a virus and then possibly spread it to somebody else who could get very sick or die or spread it to another person. I'm fine with social distancing requirements and even the probably mostly pointless "face covering" (I didn't say "mask" on purpose) requirements. I'm not OK with lockdowns and forced closures of "non-essential" businesses. There are many small businesses that people worked hard for their entire lives to build that were put out of business by the measures taken and will never return.

These are still my opinions and beliefs even with the current spike in Florida and the knowledge of the number of cases and trends in the US. There's not point in arguing about it because you have your beliefs and I have mine and neither are going to change their minds. However, I do take offense to your attitude that your opinion is the correct one and anybody that feels differently isn't one of the "intelligent people" and their thought process is dangerous.
 

mickeymiss

Well-Known Member
I heard a deeply concerning take on it today from a doctor. She said the deaths will trail the cases significantly right now in Florida as it will take a while for the young people to give it to parents and grandparents, then for them to become sick and sadly for some to likely die.

Usually they say deaths trail by a month. This guess was 45-60 days. I guess we'll know in a couple weeks. I certainly hope she's wrong

I would imagine that a much larger percentage of at risk people are hunkering down compared to March. There's no way of knowing where this thing goes but I'm hopeful that the number of people being careless around grandma has dramatically decreased. Most people in their 20's and 30's don't have regular contact with parents and grandparents anyway. I know a lot of high risk people are choosing to stay insulated and limit interactions with anyone. I hope that will make a difference.
 

Lilofan

Well-Known Member
I would imagine that a much larger percentage of at risk people are hunkering down compared to March. There's no way of knowing where this thing goes but I'm hopeful that the number of people being careless around grandma has dramatically decreased. Most people in their 20's and 30's don't have regular contact with parents and grandparents anyway. I know a lot of high risk people are choosing to stay insulated and limit interactions with anyone. I hope that will make a difference.
Some immigrant families I know are very close to their parents and grandparents. Some all live in the same town/city and do have regular contact. ( ie Florida ).
 

Casper Gutman

Well-Known Member
I still say the cure can't be worse than the disease. I still say that the measures that were taken and are still being taken in some cases are taking away moments, memories, enjoyment and quality of life from the 99%+ of the population that wouldn't die from COVID-19 even if every single person in the world contracted it.

Yes, it's sad that 130,000 people have died in the USA from this disease. Yes, it's sad that thousands more will probably die from it. However, it's also sad that tens of millions of people have postponed weddings, haven't been able to attend funerals (no matter the cause of death) and haven't been able to have birthday celebrations for their children.

It's sad that elementary school children have had to do distance learning that many college students struggle to get a real education out of. It's really sad that special needs children like my autistic nephew have missed out on months of education and therapy because he gets absolutely nothing from staring at a teacher on a screen.

Not to mention billions of people missing out on months of normal life and enjoyment of recreation. Civilization has progressed to the point that the point of life isn't just to survive and procreate like animals. Adults have probably an average of 50 years (18-68) where they are fully healthy and able to fully enjoy life. Well, close to 1% of everybody's quality adult life has been taken away by trying to hide from a virus where over 80% of the fatalities are over 65 years old, the average age of a fatality is somewhere around 80 and a huge percentage of the fatalities are elderly people who live in nursing homes.

Contrary to the image we'd all like to have, most nursing home residents aren't happily knitting, enjoying visits from their grandchildren and playing bridge all day with their friends. People who need to live in a nursing home are normally very old and have several medical conditions. While "all life is precious," I would feel differently if children and young adults had a high mortality rate like they did with the Spanish Flu.

And, yes, I strongly believe that my rights should not be restricted because I might get infected with a virus and then possibly spread it to somebody else who could get very sick or die or spread it to another person. I'm fine with social distancing requirements and even the probably mostly pointless "face covering" (I didn't say "mask" on purpose) requirements. I'm not OK with lockdowns and forced closures of "non-essential" businesses. There are many small businesses that people worked hard for their entire lives to build that were put out of business by the measures taken and will never return.

These are still my opinions and beliefs even with the current spike in Florida and the knowledge of the number of cases and trends in the US. There's not point in arguing about it because you have your beliefs and I have mine and neither are going to change their minds. However, I do take offense to your attitude that your opinion is the correct one and anybody that feels differently isn't one of the "intelligent people" and their thought process is dangerous.
The most important note here is that every harm you list - medical disaster, lost education, economic hardship - has the same, exact cause. The virus. Trying to separate the medical reality of the pandemic from its broader social impact is nonsensical. What you’re doing, then, is explaining how bad the continued impact of the pandemic is and then proudly announcing that you will do nothing to combat it.

You use a lot of words to announce that you would rather let hundreds of thousands suffer so long as it doesn’t inconvenience you. Particularly appalling is your eagerness to diminish the value of certain lives - explicitly the elderly but implicitly the millions who have a medical condition that renders them vulnerable or the young who will recover but suffer lingering health issues.

lets talk about “mostly pointless” masks. What evidence backs that statement? On one side of the argument is the overwhelming consensus of experts and the experience of the entire globe, on your side of the argument is... what?

And your last paragraph is a very common one designed to legitimate a view that is based, not on evidence, but on a desperate need to ignore reality. There aren’t two diametrically opposed but equally valid schools of thought. There is a broad consensus within which are disagreements and discussions over nuance vs a destructive, self-indulgent refusal to face a crisis. What is dangerous is allowing misguided beliefs that cause genuinely harmful behavior to retain the facade of legitimacy.
 

Casper Gutman

Well-Known Member
PS: Let’s be clear. every single person thinks their view is correct and that other views are less correct. That’s why we adopt certain views. We also... all of us... think certain arguments we don’t agree with reflect, at the least, poor judgement. This is all so obvious it shouldn’t need to be said.

Trying to declare all opinions as equally valid or declaring that we can’t make judgements about opinions is nonsensical. It’s an attempt to squash debate. In this case, it seems to spring from a desire to negate all evidence (“All opinions are equally valid totally regardless of evidence”) and to avoid having to examine a belief system that offers comfort in a scary situation (“Don’t try to make me question my beliefs.”)
 
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DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
The most important note here is that every harm you list - medical disaster, lost education, economic hardship - has the same, exact cause. The virus. Trying to separate the medical reality of the pandemic from its broader social impact is nonsensical. What you’re doing, then, is explaining how bad the continued impact of the pandemic is and then proudly announcing that you will do nothing to combat it.

You use a lot of words to announce that you would rather let hundreds of thousands suffer so long as it doesn’t inconvenience you. Particularly appalling is your eagerness to diminish the value of certain lives - explicitly the elderly but implicitly the millions who have a medical condition that renders them vulnerable or the young who will recover but suffer lingering health issues.

lets talk about “mostly pointless” masks. What evidence backs that statement? On one side of the argument is the overwhelming consensus of experts and the experience of the entire globe, on your side of the argument is... what?

And your last paragraph is a very common one designed to legitimate a view that is based, not on evidence, but on a desperate need to ignore reality. There aren’t two diametrically opposed but equally valid schools of thought. There is a broad consensus within which are disagreements and discussions over nuance vs a destructive, self-indulgent refusal to face a crisis. What is dangerous is allowing misguided beliefs that cause genuinely harmful behavior to retain the facade of legitimacy.
I’m sorry that that poster is offended that someone might challenge the validity of their view that the lives of the elderly and those with health issues (obesity, diabetes, high blood pressure, etc.) are less valuable.

I didn't say "masks" were mostly pointless. I said "face coverings" and I made the distinction on purpose. People using randomly selected pieces of fabric that have no specifications to them are likely pointless. Wearing a piece of my thin T-shirt over my nose and mouth that barely restricts anything is likely pointless.

The cause of all of those hardships and reductions of quality of life is not the virus, it is the reaction to the virus. When you say that my view is not valid, you are actually making my argument in a way. You are saying that my view is not valid that some lives are less valuable. However, by implementing the measures that were implemented, the lives of the vulnerable are being treated as MORE VALUABLE than the lives of the people that aren't vulnerable.

You are basically saying that it is OK to ruin my life (and billions of other lives) for many months (or years for some) to extend the lives of some percentage of vulnerable people. Your opinion is based on the belief (conscious or not) that being alive and living life are the same thing. To me, life is supposed to be about more than eating, drinking, sleeping, breathing, defecating, eliminating and procreating. That's the life of a wild animal, not (in my opinion) the life of a civilized human.

I'm not offended by somebody with a different view. I'm offended by that particular poster's attitude about their opinion.
 

wdisney9000

Truindenashendubapreser
Premium Member
I’m sorry that that poster is offended that someone might challenge the validity of their view that the lives of the elderly and those with health issues (obesity, diabetes, high blood pressure, etc.) are less valuable.

PS: Let’s be clear. every single person thinks their view is correct and that other views are less correct. That’s why we adopt certain views. We also... all of us... think certain arguments we don’t agree with reflect, at the least, poor judgement. This is all so obvious it shouldn’t need to be said.

Trying to declare all opinions as equally valid or declaring that we can’t make judgements about opinions is nonsensical. It’s an attempt to squash debate. In this case, it seems to spring from a desire to negate all evidence (“All opinions are equally valid totally regardless of evidence”) and to avoid having to examine a belief system that offers comfort in a scary situation (“Don’t try to make me question my beliefs.”)
A majority of the posts in this thread are nothing more than an appeal to pity. And the evidence on all sides of this argument is negated by other evidence. "that expert is wrong because this expert said so". "That expert was wrong, but now he/she is right".
 

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