Do you think that Disney world will reclose its gates due to the rising number of COVID cases in Florida and around the country?

legwand77

Well-Known Member
Not only living close to, but many live in the same households. Some of those grandparents are care-givers while parents work. One of the many things I'm concerned about when it comes to schools reopening in person.
There is evidence that kids are not a significant vector of transmission of Covid
 

legwand77

Well-Known Member
How about we tell that to the families of the kids involved in a school district sports camp that had to shut down because some of the athletes tested positive for the virus?

And the summer camp in Missouri where 82 kids/staff have now tested positive?
I agree, decisions are not being based on the reality of the situation, doing great harm to children.

Be interesting to see how many of the 82 kids/staff breakown is and how many are asymptomatic or hospitalized. Guarantee you will if their are any, but if not it will be crickets
 
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Heppenheimer

Well-Known Member
Tomorrow, provided nothing changes, this thread will prove irrelevant.

Yes, it's open but it's not OPEN.
Perhaps move the discussion to the other thread, that I believe you started?


Its mostly the same cast of characters over there anyway.
 

Parker in NYC

Well-Known Member
Perhaps move the discussion to the other thread, that I believe you started?


Its mostly the same cast of characters over there anyway.

Pretty much!
 

lazyboy97o

Well-Known Member
Perhaps move the discussion to the other thread, that I believe you started?


Its mostly the same cast of characters over there anyway.
Well, except the ones who were banned...
 

legwand77

Well-Known Member
Interesting look at Florida second wave and why we might be at the peak or nearing

  • People are modulating their connectivity in proportion to their risk.
  • Infections are up, but deaths will continue to decline.
  • The Infection Fatality Rate is declining rapidly and approaching flu like levels.
  • The second wave will rapidly decline over the summer and the virus is likely to die out without the need for vaccine if behavior continues to be modulated by risk.
  • Florida is doing a good job protecting a large population of elderly vulnerable people
 

WDWTrojan

Well-Known Member
I saw a story yesterday that NY may have reached 68% immunity. If true there is reason to think the peak is behind us. Grain of salt of course. A vaccine is on the way in any case.

Most experts believe New York has seen 10-20% of their population infected. Nowhere near 68%.
 

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
Just FYI, I noticed today on the dashboard (never saw it before) that there is a link to view and download the raw data. It isn't the most obvious UI but you can view and download data that shows a lot of details for each case. One of the details is the "event date" which appears to be the symptom onset, if known instead of the "reporting date" for new cases.

You can do all kinds of analysis. It gives the age of each case so you can go to much greater detail. I don't see the date of death for the people who died which would be interesting to analyze the lag. If somebody has time you can probably download the data each day and then write a script to at least see the day the death was reported and add a column.
 

danlb_2000

Premium Member
I saw a story yesterday that NY may have reached 68% immunity. If true there is reason to think the peak is behind us. Grain of salt of course. A vaccine is on the way in any case.

That's only good if the immunity lasts, and there are some indications that it doesn't. I am hopeful for a vaccine, but there is no gaurentee there will be a safe and effective one in the near future it ever.
 

legwand77

Well-Known Member
Not a reliable source. The site is run by a group of right-wing, anti-abortion, anti-lockdown doctors with a clear political agenda.

Their claim on the infection fatality rate "declining rapidly" is irreponsibly premature. Calculating the IFR based on the current number of Florida cases would give you a misleading figure because the increased number of cases will come before an increase in deaths.

There were 8,935 positive cases reported yesterday. Some of those will eventually result in death, but including those cases in calculating the IFR at this moment assumes that NONE of those cases were fatal.

Yes it it a right wing site, and should be viewed within that framework.
 

legwand77

Well-Known Member
Just FYI, I noticed today on the dashboard (never saw it before) that there is a link to view and download the raw data. It isn't the most obvious UI but you can view and download data that shows a lot of details for each case. One of the details is the "event date" which appears to be the symptom onset, if known instead of the "reporting date" for new cases.

You can do all kinds of analysis. It gives the age of each case so you can go to much greater detail. I don't see the date of death for the people who died which would be interesting to analyze the lag. If somebody has time you can probably download the data each day and then write a script to at least see the day the death was reported and add a column.

They opened up that API for a couple of weeks now,, how I was getting the data on the backfill of deaths recently.
 

Horizons '83

Well-Known Member
In the Parks
No
Interesting look at Florida second wave and why we might be at the peak or nearing

  • People are modulating their connectivity in proportion to their risk.
  • Infections are up, but deaths will continue to decline.
  • The Infection Fatality Rate is declining rapidly and approaching flu like levels.
  • The second wave will rapidly decline over the summer and the virus is likely to die out without the need for vaccine if behavior continues to be modulated by risk.
  • Florida is doing a good job protecting a large population of elderly vulnerable people
We aren’t even in the second wave. Second peak yes, but the second wave won’t be here until fall.
 

havoc315

Well-Known Member
We aren’t even in the second wave. Second peak yes, but the second wave won’t be here until fall.

We never finished the “first wave.”
We don’t know whether there will be a second wave. Hopefully not, but it’s certainly very possible. Then again, we may not even get through the first wave, and multiple waves will overlap in different regions.
 

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