Do you think that Disney world will reclose its gates due to the rising number of COVID cases in Florida and around the country?

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havoc315

Well-Known Member
techgeek said:
They seem to be using county-specific numbers here, and are just referring to Alachua county cases and testing... unless I'm confused. I'm trying to follow their math. Both positivity and community spread have been significantly lower in Alachua compared to the state overall and to the hotspots.

Personally I take any and all of the Florida numbers with a healthy dose of skepticism. I think they are all bunk, in some fashion, due to county by county issues in reporting like this one appears to be. However, I don't think the trends they represent are bunk. I tend to believe the errors are relatively consistent, at least, so when the graph goes north on a number and the slope of the line is alarming... that's something to express concern about. By any measure, positivity continues to be at a significantly higher rate than it was a month ago.
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I think the article is miscomprehending the numbers they see.

But there are lots of misunderstandings of the data out there.
For lots of reasons, the data is most useful in averages and trends, more so than precision.

For starters, there are county to county differences in terms of how data is reported.
It’s very hard to determine a number of missed infections.
And a lot of people still don’t understand what is actually represented by the data.
When a state or county reports “10 deaths for 7/6”— they aren’t saying 10 people died yesterday. They are saying 10 Covid deaths were -reported-yesterday. Some of the deaths may have occurred yesterday, some may have occurred a month ago but are just now being reported as Covid deaths.
With testing, some counties or some labs may report results within 24 hours of testing, others might not report until 10 days after testing.

Part of me wants to scream (at myself and others) “don’t try to interpret the data unless you have a PhD in statistics or epidemiology!!”
 
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oceanbreeze77

Well-Known Member
IF, and that's a big IF, things continue to trend this way, (higher positivity, death, and hospitalizations) then I predict Disney will not open on Saturday. Especially with the stories of ICUs filling up. They may stay open for pass holder previews for the sake of pleasing pass holders, but I think if the hit Florida is taking right now continues to have significant growth this week, its going to end up being too much of a hit for Disney to reasonably open.

Again this is a big IF.
 
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havoc315

Well-Known Member
oceanbreeze77 said:
It was 43 hospitals last night...
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I’m not super concerned about spread at WDW if masking is enforced.
I am super concerned about “attractive nuisance”..
People traveling from low infection areas to a higher infection area... then bringing infection back home.
People traveling from a high infection area to a lower infection area, bringing the virus with them.
WDW encouraging all this travel to and from. Even if not a single case spreads AT WDW... spread in airports, Ubers, buses, restaurants and gathering places near WDW...

Some areas of Florida are currently worse off than others. An “attractive nuisance” enhances the spread across all areas.
 
Herdman

Herdman

Well-Known Member
Touchdown said:
71.6% of Americans are overweight, which is a risk factor for complications from Covid.
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I understand your point, but the correct risk factor term is obesity, which is a much more dangerous position than just being overweight. My amateur Google search shows 40% of Americans are obese.
 
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WDWTrojan

Well-Known Member
Herdman said:
I understand your point, but the correct risk factor term is obesity, which is a much more dangerous position than just being overweight. My amateur Google search shows 40% of Americans are obese.
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Now you factor in age, hypertension and a host of other conditions and you're looking at 65%+ of the American public who is "at risk" which makes the "shelter the most vulnerable" argument of some completely moot.
 
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Touchdown

Well-Known Member
I’m also worried about CMs getting infected off site and bringing the virus to work. More cases=more chances for community spread and the only way to be 100% safe is to stay quarantined at home. I still maintain that anyone going to a mass gathering (10+ people) that is not essential (don’t bring up grocery stores, you need to eat) is being irresponsible right now.
 
Herdman

Herdman

Well-Known Member
trojanjustin said:
Now you factor in age, hypertension and a host of other conditions and you're looking at 65%+ of the American public who is "at risk" which makes the "shelter the most vulnerable" argument of some completely moot.
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People are showing they are not going to stay inside. We can only hope that a larger number of people will now wear masks as more and more leaders of all political persuasions call for them. That is the only way we are going to stop this thing for the time being because I don't think the country is shutting down again.
 
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WDWTrojan

Well-Known Member
Herdman said:
People are showing they are not going to stay inside. We can only hope that a larger number of people will now wear masks as more and more leaders of all political persuasions call for them. That is the only way we are going to stop this thing for the time being because I don't think the country is shutting down again.
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That isn't exactly true. Yes, some people are going out, but business is still far below what is needed to sustain most restaurants and other places of business, particularly in areas where there are high rates of infection.

 
Herdman

Herdman

Well-Known Member
trojanjustin said:
That isn't exactly true. Yes, some people are going out, but business is still far below what is needed to sustain most restaurants and other places of business, particularly in areas where there are high rates of infection.

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Yes, you are correct. I just mean more than in May which is reflected in the increased positive percentage in cases we are currently seeing.
 
chrisvee

chrisvee

Well-Known Member
havoc315 said:
Part of me wants to scream (at myself and others) “don’t try to interpret the data unless you have a PhD in statistics or epidemiology!!”
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data science getting its day in the sun

updated model from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington shows 208k deaths by 11/1 (range is 186k-245k)

-45k with assumption of universal mask adoption
 
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milordsloth

milordsloth

Well-Known Member
oceanbreeze77 said:
IF, and that's a big IF, things continue to trend this way, (higher positivity, death, and hospitalizations) then I predict Disney will not open on Saturday. Especially with the stories of ICUs filling up. They may stay open for pass holder previews for the sake of pleasing pass holders, but I think if the hit Florida is taking right now continues to have significant growth this week, its going to end up being too much of a hit for Disney to reasonably open.

Again this is a big IF.
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I'm gonna stick with a glass half full outlook and say WDW will be able to stay open and that the worst of the virus is behind us.

Also will add masks and distancing are important to keep that true, and my opinion is no way influenced by my trip starting this weekend.
 
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WDWTrojan

Well-Known Member
mickeymiss said:
Sorry I meant infections directly linked to transmission at a restaurant. One employee testing positive could have been someone who caught it at home or a party. My state has had a handful of those. None of them became outbreaks. One recent case here was isolated and all exposed staff tested negative. I'm seeking media or health department confirmed outbreaks of more than one person traced to dining at a guideline following restaurant. I'll even take suspected outbreaks of more than one person confirmed by health departments or media sources that ate at a restaurant . Employees have a different risk scenario so I'm looking for customer transmission.
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fortune.com

You may want to avoid reopened restaurants after reading this new JP Morgan report on coronavirus outbreaks

The study found that the "level of spending in restaurants three weeks ago was the strongest predictor of the rise in new virus cases over the subsequent three weeks."
fortune.com fortune.com
 
milordsloth

milordsloth

Well-Known Member
trojanjustin said:
fortune.com

You may want to avoid reopened restaurants after reading this new JP Morgan report on coronavirus outbreaks

The study found that the "level of spending in restaurants three weeks ago was the strongest predictor of the rise in new virus cases over the subsequent three weeks."
fortune.com fortune.com
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The end of of the article was locked behind a paywall, but this was a good quote "Still, JPMorgan notes that the correlation doesn't take all factors into account, and states seeing a surge in cases share other characteristics apart from restaurant spending."

While an interesting read, the article isn't good proof of anything of @mickeymiss' request for "media or health department confirmed outbreaks of more than one person traced to dining at a guideline following restaurant."
 

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