Do you think that Disney world will reclose its gates due to the rising number of COVID cases in Florida and around the country?

[Ragerunner]

I've been predicting that the daily infections will decline noticeably in about two weeks from now. It's going to follow the same pattern as NY and every other spike worldwide. The difference is that Florida didn't have a spike until June and neither did California or the other States having issues now.

I could be wrong but that's what I think is going to happen.

ifFlo

Another 253 deaths and 9956 infections.

The "good" news is that it appears cases have plateaued since Florida tightened restrictions somewhat. It suggests deaths should ultimately stabilize.

The bad news... cases aren't exactly declining very quickly, if at all. 200+ deaths per day isn't exactly a level you want to stabilize at.
Over the next week or so, we should get a better idea of whether cases are actually dropping at a fair rate or not. If not, Florida will really have to consider tighter restrictions.

If Florida opens back up the bars and throws open brick and mortor schools over the next few weeks we will look back at these types of numbers as the good old days by November. This will cause more damage to the travel industry and the state’s economy.

I hope I am very wrong but the virus doesn’t care what I hope for.

 

[DisneyCane]

With respect to WDW, looking at the data which is mature enough at this point, it does not appear that there has been any increase in the spread due to the reopening of WDW.

I've spent four days in the parks over the past two weeks. I would have been very surprised to find WDW leading to spread. If the policies and procedures in place currently aren't "safe" then we might as well completely give up.

As I told them on my post stay survey, I hope that the "enhanced cleaning procedures" at the resorts become the normal cleaning procedures after COVID. Then I won't have to spend a half an hour wiping down every hotel room with sanitizing wipes upon arrival.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

With respect to WDW, looking at the data which is mature enough at this point, it does not appear that there has been any increase in the spread due to the reopening of WDW.

I've spent four days in the parks over the past two weeks. I would have been very surprised to find WDW leading to spread. If the policies and procedures in place currently aren't "safe" then we might as well completely give up.

As I told them on my post stay survey, I hope that the "enhanced cleaning procedures" at the resorts become the normal cleaning procedures after COVID. Then I won't have to spend a half an hour wiping down every hotel room with sanitizing wipes upon arrival.

Someone on these forums reported that a friend who was at WDW at the time of their post had gotten back a positive test result and is not ending their trip, reporting their results, or self-isolating.

 

[Horizons '83]

Someone on these forums reported that a friend who was at WDW at the time of their post had gotten back a positive test result and is not ending their trip, reporting their results, or self-isolating.

Without robust contract tracing its really tough to tell where and when the exposure occurred. Its really the Achilles heal of this whole thing right now.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

Without robust contract tracing its really tough to tell where and when the exposure occurred. Its really the Achilles heal of this whole thing right now.

Point being...that person could be spreading the virus in the parks/resorts. I wasn't talking about where they contracted it.

 

[havoc315]

I've been predicting that the daily infections will decline noticeably in about two weeks from now. It's going to follow the same pattern as NY and every other spike worldwide. The difference is that Florida didn't have a spike until June and neither did California or the other States having issues now.

I could be wrong but that's what I think is going to happen.

It's certainly possible that daily cases will continue to decline in Florida.

But there are several problems with your theory:
First, you are assuming there is no effect by level of mitigation. Whether masks or no masks, social distancing or not, locked down or open. This is simple epidemiology 101 -- this stuff DOES matter. Not every area has faced an identical curve.

For example, a country that really hasn't taken significant mitigation, Brazil:

Now, Florida is taking some fair mitigation measures: Bars are closing, masking is pretty common. And lots of people are voluntarily social distancing. That might be enough to drive infections down.

So the curve is mostly dependent on the actions of individuals, businesses and government.

But let's say you're right.... that it's a simple matter of, "it came way down in NY, came way down in Italy.. it will come way down and stay down at a big outbreak"

Well, there is a major massive problem with that theory of yours: The USA had a massive outbreak in April.... yet another massive outbreak in June/July. Now, under your theory, you'll explain it simply by, "different areas got hit at different times"

So.... follow your own logic... South Florida was hit very very hard. By your logic, the other regions of Florida will eventually see spikes similar to South Florida, to New York, etc..
So cases might drop in heavily hit South Florida, but that might be countered by rises in cases through the rest of the state?


I'll end this post on a lesson from Australia.
There has been some attention lately to a "massive second wave" in Australia. I believe some are trying to cite it as evidence that lockdowns don't matter. But really, the evidence is the exact opposite.
The new "epicenter" in Australia is Melbourne/Victoria -- a City of 5 million within a state of about 6 million people. Their massive 2nd-wave-spike is still only about 600 cases per day. In comparison, Orlando Fl/Orange Cty -- has a population of 285,000 and about 1.3 million in the county. Orange Cty has a total of 30,000 positive cases so far. The entire country of Australia has had only 22,000 cases.

So what we are calling a "spike" in Australia, is a fraction of what we are seeing in Orlando/Orange Cty. It would be the equivalent of Orlando/Orange Cty having about 100 cases per day.
In response, Victoria/Melbourne has gone into a very strict lockdown. So this "second wave" will be contained, it likely won't get massively out of control.
Australia has had a total of 221 deaths. Orange Cty Florida -- 234 deaths.

Australia finds 221 deaths in the country to be unacceptable, taking aggressive actions to prevent it from getting worse. A single county in Florida has even more deaths, and thinks that's good enough to open theme parks.

 

[Horizons '83]

Point being...that person could be spreading the virus in the parks/resorts. I wasn't talking about where they contracted it.

Could be, hopefully wearing a mask and keeping away will prevent that but to your point, not smart for that person to be doing that.

 

[havoc315]

With respect to WDW, looking at the data which is mature enough at this point, it does not appear that there has been any increase in the spread due to the reopening of WDW.

I've spent four days in the parks over the past two weeks. I would have been very surprised to find WDW leading to spread. If the policies and procedures in place currently aren't "safe" then we might as well completely give up.

As I told them on my post stay survey, I hope that the "enhanced cleaning procedures" at the resorts become the normal cleaning procedures after COVID. Then I won't have to spend a half an hour wiping down every hotel room with sanitizing wipes upon arrival.

We've seen massive increase in spread in Florida that is linked to the re-opening, including the theme parks.
We don't know how much of that increase is attributable to the theme parks. And remember, we mostly aren't talking about spread while riding Splash Mountain. It's the spread when an infected family from Miami decides to drive up for the weekend, spreading it at rest stops and restaurants on the way. It's the spread when people hop into an uber to get to Magic Kingdom. etc, etc.

Considering the amount of uncontrolled spread in Florida, we don't know what portion of it traces back to WDW. But it is extremely likely (practically certain) that WDW being open is a contributor to the current spread.

 

[DisneyCane]

Without robust contract tracing its really tough to tell where and when the exposure occurred. Its really the Achilles heal of this whole thing right now.

That isn't even contact tracing. That's unbelievable selfishness and the person is a word that starts with an "a" and has 7 letters.

 

[Horizons '83]

That isn't even contact tracing. That's unbelievable selfishness and the person is a word that starts with an "a" and has 7 letters.

I know this one.... I know this one. It will come to me.

 

[Disstevefan1]

We've seen massive increase in spread in Florida that is linked to the re-opening, including the theme parks.
We don't know how much of that increase is attributable to the theme parks. And remember, we mostly aren't talking about spread while riding Splash Mountain. It's the spread when an infected family from Miami decides to drive up for the weekend, spreading it at rest stops and restaurants on the way. It's the spread when people hop into an uber to get to Magic Kingdom. etc, etc.

Considering the amount of uncontrolled spread in Florida, we don't know what portion of it traces back to WDW. But it is extremely likely (practically certain) that WDW being open is a contributor to the current spread.

Not sure if it’s possible to contract trace and determine without a doubt that a guest was infected while on WDW property.

This is just my opinion, but with all the precautions WDW has in place and with specifically the mask rule being followed by what looks like 98 percent of everyone there, you are more than likely to Get COVID when traveling to the gates of WDW and after you leave WDW.

Let’s say someone knows they have COVID and really wants to go on their WDW vacation, I can’t speak for how many folks they will infect while getting there and after they leave, but if they truly follow all the rules while at WDW, it’s a low chance they will infect someone with the outside possibility of the seated dining.

 

[havoc315]

Not sure if it’s possible to contract trace and determine without a doubt that a guest was infected while on WDW property.

This is just my opinion, but with all the precautions WDW has in place and with specifically the mask rule being followed by what looks like 98 percent of everyone there, you are more than likely to Get COVID when traveling to the gates of WDW and after you leave WDW.

Let’s say someone knows they have COVID and really wants to go on their WDW vacation, I can’t speak for how many folks they will infect while getting there and after they leave, but if they truly follow all the rules while at WDW, it’s a low chance they will infect someone with the outside possibility of the seated dining.

But that's the point -- Getting there, leaving there, eating there -- those are all parts of the equation. Closing Disney World wouldn't be a "punishment" for their own actions. It would simply be recognition that getting there, leaving there, dining there and near there, etc -- are all high risks.

 

[SamusAranX]

Can Disney world and / or Orange County impose a quarantine requirement on visitors from Miami-Dade county? I mean Disney world technically has its own incorporated government entity / town so I don’t see why they couldn’t pass a local ordinance

 

[rowrbazzle]

I dunno. Per the dashboard, in the last six weeks the positivity rate has gone from 12.18% to 14.98% at the end of June and now down 11.5% last week. In the other thread it shows it's been under 10% for the past two days. That seems like a positive trend overall. If you look at Orange County it's dropped from 16.87% to 8.29% over the past six weeks. That doesn't seem to indicate that there has been a massive increase in spread (edited to fix wording) over the last month. It seems more like an indication that mitigation strategies are working. Hopefully people keep them up.

 

[Archie123]

That isn't even contact tracing. That's unbelievable selfishness and the person is a word that starts with an "a" and has 7 letters.

Aladdin?

 

[EPCOT-O.G.]

Aladdin?

Atencio.

 

[GoofGoof]

Not sure if it’s possible to contract trace and determine without a doubt that a guest was infected while on WDW property.

This is just my opinion, but with all the precautions WDW has in place and with specifically the mask rule being followed by what looks like 98 percent of everyone there, you are more than likely to Get COVID when traveling to the gates of WDW and after you leave WDW.

Let’s say someone knows they have COVID and really wants to go on their WDW vacation, I can’t speak for how many folks they will infect while getting there and after they leave, but if they truly follow all the rules while at WDW, it’s a low chance they will infect someone with the outside possibility of the seated dining.

Except while dining and potentially swimmimg in the pool. Those are the main parts of WDW where I see spread as very likely. We’ve seen lots of evidence that inside dining is a source of spread and most people at WDW are eating all there meals in restaurants (unless you have a DVC villa). Some are outdoors, but most are not. If that infected person is at the table next to you for an hour while you eat that’s high risk for infection. The pools are a little less problematic because they are outside but still close contact without a mask. There’s also the less likely route of surface contact infection. Buses, boats, monorails, ride vehicles lots of surface contact. They offer hand sanitizers but there’s no guarantee everyone uses them diligently. There are kids who are notoriously bad with hygiene and also the Covid denier crowd who think the virus is no big deal so may not care. I do agree that walking around the parks with a mask on you are unlikely to get infected even if you come in close proximity to a positive person.

 

[havoc315]

I dunno. Per the dashboard, in the last six weeks the positivity rate has gone from 12.18% to 14.98% at the end of June and now down 11.5% last week. In the other thread it shows it's been under 10% for the past two days. That seems like a positive trend overall. If you look at Orange County it's dropped from 16.87% to 8.29% over the past six weeks. That doesn't seem to indicate that there has been a massive spread over the last month. It seems more like an indication that mitigation strategies are working. Hopefully people keep them up.

Both can be true. Yes — mitigation strategies are helping, spread is slowing.
But positivity rate of around 10% still represents massive ongoing spread. Just getting a bit less massive.

 

[rowrbazzle]

Both can be true. Yes — mitigation strategies are helping, spread is slowing.
But positivity rate of around 10% still represents massive ongoing spread. Just getting a bit less massive.

Yes. From what I understand 10% indicates a good amount of community spread. If the rates are decreasing, though, I wouldn't describe that as a "massive increase in spread." That's what I was trying to say, but inadvertantly omitted a couple words. I hope people remain vigilant and it continues to drop.

 

[Unplugged]

Aladdin?

Aladdin....and his girlfriend Karen?