Do you think that Disney world will reclose its gates due to the rising number of COVID cases in Florida and around the country?

[oceanbreeze77]

Since this happens every year how do you suggest we improve flu season? I'm sure tired of working my *** off every winter. I get accused of not valuing human life, but what I've seen over my career is that not many Americans value their health.

overall that's a political discussion so I'm not going to get into it.

 

[legwand77]

Depends on how much you want to bring down cases and deaths.
Let’s put it this way: 500,000 deaths, no voluntary mitigation.
250,000 deaths —voluntary mitigation only.
30,000 deaths — mandated mitigation.

Which option would you pick?

Rhetorical question and over simplified, not interested.

 

[havoc315]

using surge capacity is not a good thing.

It virtually NEVER happened before Covid. Hospitaks typically operate at under 50% of their regular capacity.
Covid has pushed hospitals to greater capacity than any time in modern history on a sustained basis.

Sure, typically... there might be a day or 2 where a hospital might have to call in extra staff for a few hours of overtime. But nothing like this.
I know 1 intensivist who went from working 36 hours per week (3 12 hour shifts) to 72-84 hours per week for 8 weeks straight.

 

[BrianLo]

Not hanging my hat on it , it was the metric you mentioned, just showing you we are at the threshold you were looking for. Take a look a Florida, lag time really not that big of an issue there.

View attachment 484700

I think you might be reading this wrong.

The orange line is the normal average seasonal trend line. Accounting for normal seasonal variation (higher deaths in winter months). Already every week but the most recent two are above threshold, despite numbers not even being finalized counts. There isn't a decline at all.

 

[legwand77]

overall that's a political discussion so I'm not going to get into it.

nice flex

 

[Parker in NYC]

I think you might be reading this wrong.

The orange line is the normal average seasonal trend line. Accounting for normal seasonal variation (higher deaths in winter months). Already every week but the most recent two are above threshold, despite numbers not even being finalized counts. There isn't a decline at all.

He doesn’t know how to read charts. Only post and “analyze” them to fit a predetermined narrative. Not worth engaging.

 

[Miss Bella]

That’s for damned sure! If more Americans cared about their health, we wouldn’t be dealing with the extraordinary influx of proud idiots during this worldwide pandemic. See, it seems we agree yet again.

Not really. I was thinking more along the lines of one out of three people being obese, smoking, drug abuse.... I could go on, but I won't.

 

[havoc315]

Rhetorical question and over simplified, not interested.

not rhetorical. hypothetical, and very realistic.
If we had reacted to Covid with appropriate testing and mitigation from early March forward, deaths would have been limited to 30,000 or less.

We are currently on track for 200,000+.

Had we done “nothing”.. we easily would have had 500,000+.

It’s all a question of how many lives you want to save.

 

[Parker in NYC]

Not really. I was thinking more along the lines of one out of three people being obese, smoking, drug abuse.... I could go on, but I won't.

Completely agreed there!

 

[oceanbreeze77]

It virtually NEVER happened before Covid. Hospitaks typically operate at under 50% of their regular capacity.
Covid has pushed hospitals to greater capacity than any time in modern history on a sustained basis.

Sure, typically... there might be a day or 2 where a hospital might have to call in extra staff for a few hours of overtime. But nothing like this.
I know 1 intensivist who went from working 36 hours per week (3 12 hour shifts) to 72-84 hours per week for 8 weeks straight.

it has happened, especially in underserved cities , but the problem we have here is that it is a virus we know virtually nothing about and its harming/killing people at a fast rate. A flu puts people in the hospital, we typically know what to do, and we utilize specific resources. But filled hospital beds are different than filled hospital beds during a novel pandemic. This thing puts people in the hospital and you have a best guess scenario for how a treatment MAY work on a single individual. Thats why people like your friend are being used so much, they need all man power they can get because this virus is nasty and right now needs to be approached at all angles.

(I know I'm going to have to answer this so YES, the flu is nasty, but the flu is not new and we know a lot about it,. )

 

[legwand77]

I think you might be reading this wrong.

The orange line is the normal average seasonal trend line. Already every week but the most recent two are above threshold, despite numbers not even being finalized counts. There isn't a decline at all.

the yellow line is acutally the threshold for excess deaths, also what happened in 2018, scratch that, disregard, it is just the repeat argument as AZ different verse, not going down that road again with you. Feel free to interpret however you like.

 

[celluloid]

Central Florida counties see jump in COVID-19 related deaths

Over 4,900 Floridians have died from the coronavirus, according to the department of health.

www.clickorlando.com

 

[lazyboy97o]

Since this happens every year how do you suggest we improve flu season? I'm sure tired of working my *** off every winter. I get accused of not valuing human life, but what I've seen over my career is that not many Americans value their health.

More vaccinations. Changing culture to not accept people who are “tough” and show up to work. Change sick policies to make it easier for people to stay home. Wearing masks if ill and have to go out. Stuff that was done rather successfully in 2008 for H1N1 that did reduce illnesses and, despite claims that more generous sick policies would be abused, saw productivity increase as people weren’t working sick and making their co-workers sick.

 

[legwand77]

It virtually NEVER happened before Covid. Hospitaks typically operate at under 50% of their regular capacity.
Covid has pushed hospitals to greater capacity than any time in modern history on a sustained basis.

Sure, typically... there might be a day or 2 where a hospital might have to call in extra staff for a few hours of overtime. But nothing like this.
I know 1 intensivist who went from working 36 hours per week (3 12 hour shifts) to 72-84 hours per week for 8 weeks straight.

Got plenty more examples but you get the drift

Hospitals Overwhelmed by Flu Patients Are Treating Them in Tents

Across the country, medical centers are taking extraordinary measures.

time.com

Flu Patients Arrive in Droves, and a Hospital Rolls Out the ‘Surge Tent’ (Published 2018)

The worst flu season in nearly a decade has filled emergency rooms and strained resources at medical centers. Hospitalization and infection rates are among the highest in two decades.

www.nytimes.com

This Year's Flu Season Is Record-Breaking

Hospitals across the country have been literally pulling out "surge tents" to make extra space for flu cases.

www.newsweek.com

 

[Parker in NYC]

Central Florida counties see jump in COVID-19 related deaths

Over 4,900 Floridians have died from the coronavirus, according to the department of health.

www.clickorlando.com

Word to the wise. Don’t read those comments. Yikes.

 

[legwand77]

it has happened, especially in underserved cities , but the problem we have here is that it is a virus we know virtually nothing about and its harming/killing people at a fast rate. A flu puts people in the hospital, we typically know what to do, and we utilize specific resources. But filled hospital beds are different than filled hospital beds during a novel pandemic. This thing puts people in the hospital and you have a best guess scenario for how a treatment MAY work on a single individual. Thats why people like your friend are being used so much, they need all man power they can get because this virus is nasty and right now needs to be approached at all angles.

(I know I'm going to have to answer this so YES, the flu is nasty, but the flu is not new and we know a lot about it,. )

the virus is not exactly novel at this point.

 

[Miss Bella]

it has happened, especially in underserved cities , but the problem we have here is that it is a virus we know virtually nothing about and its harming/killing people at a fast rate. A flu puts people in the hospital, we typically know what to do, and we utilize specific resources. But filled hospital beds are different than filled hospital beds during a novel pandemic. This thing puts people in the hospital and you have a best guess scenario for how a treatment MAY work on a single individual. Thats why people like your friend are being used so much, they need all man power they can get because this virus is nasty and right now needs to be approached at all angles.

(I know I'm going to have to answer this so YES, the flu is nasty, but the flu is not new and we know a lot about it,. )

I disagree with just about everything you said.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

Word to the wise. Don’t read those comments. Yikes.

bad comments out of Florida? I'm shocked.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

the virus is not exactly novel at this point.

 

[Parker in NYC]

bad comments out of Florida? I'm shocked.

Hey, I’m a sheltered New Yorker!