Do you think that Disney world will reclose its gates due to the rising number of COVID cases in Florida and around the country?

[chrisvee]

“In fact, mandates are essential, a new study finds. Using statistical analysis, it concludes that 40,000 lives would have been saved in two months if a national mask mandate for employees of public-facing businesses had gone into effect on April 1 and had been strictly obeyed. The analysis was for the months of April and May; presumably even more lives would have been saved if a mandate had been in place up to the present.”

Mandatory Mask Use Could Have Saved 40k Lives

 

[Miss Bella]

If you get cases low and the systems in place there is no need to stay locked down.

A lot of states accomplished that and then had outbreaks Some states have still had very few cases. I have no idea what the future holds for Europe no one does.

 

[Miss Bella]

People already go for it. It’s not a new thing.

I never said it was new. I know not everyone is going to go for it.

 

[October82]

What would be an acceptable way for me to think? I’m guessing I should be in favor of everything staying shut down? If I thought like that then in your opinion I would truly value human life?

Of course, I think, like most people, you do value human life. That was my point that you claimed to have missed. You don't really think that saying more than a hundred thousand dead is somehow okay because the percentage of people who die is small, and at the end of the day, you do think we should take measures to reduce the spread of the virus. You also want life to get back to normal and, if you really pressed me, I'd say that you're posting mainly because that desire for normalcy is a really strong one. We all share it. There's no red and blue teams here.

This isn't ideological for me, but for many people, the question of what we should do has been wrapped up in politics because it's easier to think of it that way than to understand it as a scientific issue with difficult facts about what we have to do. The scientific answer is that we have to reduce the spread of the virus to controllable levels. We know how to do that. As has been repeated ad nauseam it is 1. adequate testing and 2. contact tracing. Measures that help but will not end this are 1) mask wearing and 2) social distancing.

All of these are harder with widespread community transmission, which is why governments have imposed stay at home orders. They get us more quickly to a level of transmission that is controllable while allowing much more normalcy for all of our lives. The rest of the world has done this, while we have fallen on our face fracturing along political lines. But, if you have better solutions to these things, by all means, publish papers in the scientific/economic/policy literature.

 

[October82]

A lot of states accomplished that and then had outbreaks Some states have still had very few cases. I have no idea what the future holds for Europe no one does.

"I don't know" doesn't mean "no one does". Europe has robust and reliable measurements of the spread of the virus, and is using policies to prevent a new round of viral spread that have been proven to work. There are lots of things we don't know about this virus - about its genetics, about the long term health impacts on the young and recovered - but we know a lot about how to stop or slow the spread of viruses in general.

 

[lazyboy97o]

A lot of states accomplished that and then had outbreaks Some states have still had very few cases. I have no idea what the future holds for Europe no one does.

No, they did not. They had the low cases but not the systems for containment.

 

[legwand77]

And this is why we will continue to spin in circles with this, never truly finding a way out, because of prevalent "It's not a big deal...get over it" attitudes like this.

Interesting, primarily since no one is saying "It's not a big deal...get over it" but guess that is not important

 

[oceanbreeze77]

Theres talk building of a possible new strand that is not showing as a positive in the current COVID tests. If this is true...all of these metrics are inaccurate until we incorporate this new strand into our COVID tests.

do you have a source on that? id love to read it.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

Miami Dades ICU is at 119% capacity.

Thats a VERY bad thing.

 

[havoc315]

Good news does not fit their narrative. You should know that by now. As far as Arizona it’s not getting worse and we’ve been stable with our capacity over the last week. Actually it’s improved a little. They closed bars and required masks but other than that nothings really changed as far as pulling back.

A LOT has changed. A lot of changed behavior is voluntary, not necessarily in response to a government mandate.

 

[BrianLo]

You’ve gotta he realistic though. Stopping deaths from viruses ain’t happening and never was the case.

Freaking COVID-19 isn’t the first or last virus that will kill people and will likely be around just like the flu. It will probably stop killing and infecting at this rate in the coming years, but it’s something we add to things that kill humans.

Actint like this is the biggest threat to humanity proves you watch too much news. Obesity and smoking are far more dangerous. Hell, the flu is more dangwrous if you want to talk about total number killed. Killed tens of thousands every year with a vaccine and treatment.

Relax, we will get through this but nothing is going to zero and we aren’t going to hide away until it does. Life goes on and thankfully, people are starting to see that. Precautions and move on. Scared, option to stay home. People have to work and live life. We’ve don’t it with plenty of dangers in the world.

I was mostly referring to the increase from baseline or excess deaths. Which are largely unnecessary and preventable. Just because other primary and secondary preventative health crisis (obesity, smoking) are important does not minimize the risk of this one.

It is a lofty goal, but I'll even settle for "under control". I did not suggest people need to hide away until it is over. This is not an all or none situation. Low + Stable and/or declining is achievable.

Obviously you do not personally know me. Don't mistake my concern for the social media degradation of public health opinion with me being personally afraid of COVID. Frankly, I'm probably too far on the opposite end of the spectrum. Nor am I really influenced by American Media - nor did I say anywhere this was the biggest threat to humanity.

 

[legwand77]

I was mostly referring to the increase from baseline or excess deaths. Which are largely unnecessary and preventable. Just because other primary and secondary preventative health crisis (obesity, smoking) are important does not minimize the risk of this one.

It is a lofty goal, but I'll even settle for "under control". I did not suggest people need to hide away until it is over. This is not an all or none situation. Low + Stable and/or declining is achievable.

Obviously you do not personally know me. Don't mistake my concern for the social media degradation of public health opinion with me being personally afraid of COVID. Frankly, I'm probably too far on the opposite end of the spectrum. Nor am I really influenced by American Media - nor did I say anywhere this was the biggest threat to humanity.

Well considering the country is currently below the average US excess deaths (not counting the last two weeks) and have been for the past month, does that make the situation any better in your eyes.

 

[legwand77]

Miami Dades ICU is at 119% capacity.

Thats a VERY bad thing.

Yes saw that and is concerning, but trying to square with the latest data, which is updated more frequently shows Dade county at 20% capacity remaining. I am thinking they must have opened a floor or area to give more capacity. The largest hospital in Miami is showing 33% capacity right now.

 

[October82]

Well considering the country is currently below the average US excess deaths (not counting the last two weeks) and have been for the past month, does that make the situation any better in your eyes.

It is the case that excess deaths have declined since their peak in April. I'm assuming this is what you're referring to since I'm not sure what "below average US excess deaths" means. However, the total number of deaths remains in excess of the expected number in the absence of covid-19. So it is not the case that the situation has improved, at least based on the numbers that I was able to find. If you have a source for your description, we can probably say more about this.

 

[legwand77]

A LOT has changed. A lot of changed behavior is voluntary, not necessarily in response to a government mandate.

So if that is the case is a government mandate necessary?

 

[legwand77]

It is the case that excess deaths have declined since their peak in April. I'm assuming this is what you're referring to since I'm not sure what "below average US excess deaths" means. However, the total number of deaths remains in excess of the expected number in the absence of covid-19. So it is not the case that the situation has improved, at least based on the numbers that I was able to find. If you have a source for your description, we can probably say more about this.

No, to clarify I mean on a weekly basis we are currently and have been for around a month, below the threshold for excess deaths, isn't that your goal that you mentioned.

 

[October82]

No, to clarify I mean on a weekly basis we are currently and have been for around a month, below the threshold for excess deaths, isn't that your goal that you mentioned.

I'm not the person you originally responded to. That said, as I mentioned in the comment you quoted the number has declined. However, the numbers for recent weeks are known to be a substantial undercount in total mortality due to the time lag in reporting of deaths. We can't draw any conclusion from them (positive or negative) until the numbers are updated over the next few weeks.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

Yes saw that and is concerning, but trying to square with the latest data, which is updated more frequently shows Dade county at 20% capacity remaining. I am thinking they must have opened a floor or area to give more capacity. The largest hospital in Miami is showing 33% capacity right now.

having to use surge capacity it not a good thing

 

[Miss Bella]

having to use surge capacity it not a good thing

We sure have done it a lot throughout the years. Where you've been?

 

[legwand77]

I'm not the person you originally responded to. That said, as I mentioned in the comment you quoted the number has declined. However, the numbers for recent weeks are known to be a substantial undercount in total mortality due to the time lag in reporting of deaths. We can't draw any conclusion from them (positive or negative) until the numbers are updated over the next few weeks.

Yes I acknowledge that (not counting the last two weeks), point still stands