Do you think that Disney world will reclose its gates due to the rising number of COVID cases in Florida and around the country?

[legwand77]

I was mostly referring to the increase from baseline or excess deaths. Which are largely unnecessary and preventable. Just because other primary and secondary preventative health crisis (obesity, smoking) are important does not minimize the risk of this one.

It is a lofty goal, but I'll even settle for "under control". I did not suggest people need to hide away until it is over. This is not an all or none situation. Low + Stable and/or declining is achievable.

Obviously you do not personally know me. Don't mistake my concern for the social media degradation of public health opinion with me being personally afraid of COVID. Frankly, I'm probably too far on the opposite end of the spectrum. Nor am I really influenced by American Media - nor did I say anywhere this was the biggest threat to humanity.

Well considering the country is currently below the average US excess deaths (not counting the last two weeks) and have been for the past month, does that make the situation any better in your eyes.

 

[legwand77]

Miami Dades ICU is at 119% capacity.

Thats a VERY bad thing.

Yes saw that and is concerning, but trying to square with the latest data, which is updated more frequently shows Dade county at 20% capacity remaining. I am thinking they must have opened a floor or area to give more capacity. The largest hospital in Miami is showing 33% capacity right now.

 

[October82]

Well considering the country is currently below the average US excess deaths (not counting the last two weeks) and have been for the past month, does that make the situation any better in your eyes.

It is the case that excess deaths have declined since their peak in April. I'm assuming this is what you're referring to since I'm not sure what "below average US excess deaths" means. However, the total number of deaths remains in excess of the expected number in the absence of covid-19. So it is not the case that the situation has improved, at least based on the numbers that I was able to find. If you have a source for your description, we can probably say more about this.

 

[legwand77]

A LOT has changed. A lot of changed behavior is voluntary, not necessarily in response to a government mandate.

So if that is the case is a government mandate necessary?

 

[legwand77]

It is the case that excess deaths have declined since their peak in April. I'm assuming this is what you're referring to since I'm not sure what "below average US excess deaths" means. However, the total number of deaths remains in excess of the expected number in the absence of covid-19. So it is not the case that the situation has improved, at least based on the numbers that I was able to find. If you have a source for your description, we can probably say more about this.

No, to clarify I mean on a weekly basis we are currently and have been for around a month, below the threshold for excess deaths, isn't that your goal that you mentioned.

 

[October82]

No, to clarify I mean on a weekly basis we are currently and have been for around a month, below the threshold for excess deaths, isn't that your goal that you mentioned.

I'm not the person you originally responded to. That said, as I mentioned in the comment you quoted the number has declined. However, the numbers for recent weeks are known to be a substantial undercount in total mortality due to the time lag in reporting of deaths. We can't draw any conclusion from them (positive or negative) until the numbers are updated over the next few weeks.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

Yes saw that and is concerning, but trying to square with the latest data, which is updated more frequently shows Dade county at 20% capacity remaining. I am thinking they must have opened a floor or area to give more capacity. The largest hospital in Miami is showing 33% capacity right now.

having to use surge capacity it not a good thing

 

[Miss Bella]

having to use surge capacity it not a good thing

We sure have done it a lot throughout the years. Where you've been?

 

[legwand77]

I'm not the person you originally responded to. That said, as I mentioned in the comment you quoted the number has declined. However, the numbers for recent weeks are known to be a substantial undercount in total mortality due to the time lag in reporting of deaths. We can't draw any conclusion from them (positive or negative) until the numbers are updated over the next few weeks.

Yes I acknowledge that (not counting the last two weeks), point still stands

 

[DisneyDebRob]

We sure have done it a lot throughout the years. Where you've been?

She said it wasn’t good, not that it hasn’t been used before. She is correct.

 

[legwand77]

She said it wasn’t good, not that it hasn’t been used before. She is correct.

True, but I doubt it was posted on a disney fan board when it happened.

 

[Miss Bella]

She said it wasn’t good, not that it hasn’t been used before. She is correct.

We use it every flu season. Don't you think it's good were prepared every winter?

 

[DisneyDebRob]

True, but I doubt it was posted on a disney fan board when it happened.

It’s getting late and I’m tired so it’s probably me but I don’t understand your response.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

We use it every flu season. Don't you think it's good were prepared every winter?

Again, she said it wasn’t good, not that we haven’t done it.

 

[Miss Bella]

Again, she said it wasn’t good, not that we haven’t done it.

I was just informing her of something she probably didn't know.

 

[legwand77]

It’s getting lat and I’m tired so it’s probably me but I don’t understand your response.

because no one posted on a disney board when hospitals go into surge mode before covid, happens much more than most people think

 

[BrianLo]

Well considering the country is currently below the average US excess deaths (not counting the last two weeks) and have been for the past month, does that make the situation any better in your eyes.

Provisional COVID-19 Mortality Surveillance

National Center for Health Statistics

www.cdc.gov

Yes, that would reassure me if it proves to hold up. What the US did was working. I hope no one argues that the reaction (whether an over-reaction) did not make a major difference.

Then they unwound too quickly and I'm no longer sure that is the case.

We can hang our hat on this metric if you would like, but we need to acknowledge it has a lag time of up to 8 weeks per the CDC.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

because no one posted on a disney board when hospitals go into surge mode before covid, happens much more than most poeple think

Got it.

 

[legwand77]

Provisional COVID-19 Mortality Surveillance

National Center for Health Statistics

www.cdc.gov

Yes, that would reassure me if it proves to hold up. What the US did was working. I hope no one argues that the reaction (whether an over-reaction) did not make a major difference.

Then they unwound too quickly and I'm no longer sure that is the case.

We can hang our hat on this metric if you would like, but we need to acknowledge it has a lag time of up to 8 weeks per the CDC.

Not hanging my hat on it , it was the metric you mentioned, just showing you we are at the threshold you were looking for. Take a look a Florida, lag time really not that big of an issue there. Also highlights how bad it was in NY/NJ vs rest of the country

 

[Miss Bella]

because no one posted on a disney board when hospitals go into surge mode before covid, happens much more than most people think

Florida and Arizona have a huge a population increase in the Winter. I can't speak for Florida, but I know our hospitals are designed for Winter.