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Do you think that Disney world will reclose its gates due to the rising number of COVID cases in Florida and around the country?
- Thread starter Logan L
- Start date
kong1802
Well-Known Member
So, please correct if wrong, but scenario 8 shows 988 -1494 deaths by end of May........
And you are saying they are at 1500+ as of today. A far far far cry from your post below stating 27000 deaths predicted and the accompanying weird graph, wouldn't you say?
Also, the stay at home until 6/1 number seems to be a similar range, if not the exact same. So your borrowed analysis is way way way off.
I don't blame you as you were just basically retweeting without giving credit....
But I would strongly suggest digging in a bit before just retweeting.
Or at least give credit so you don't take all the heat.....
??
Snark not needed, and you might look again, with stay at home till 6/1 the number of deaths predicted is 28231 for the year. Also note the stay at home order was lifted 5/13. They are at 1500 today, with the last month daily deaths averaging in the single digits.
scenario 5-6
every scenario has greater that 22,000 deaths for the year, up to unmitigated has 57000.
Now if you think at a minimum 20,000+ will die in MN in less than six months then you would be correct.
kong1802
Well-Known Member
So you are comparing YTD deaths with what they are predicting for the entire year?
Their YTD numbers fall in line with where they are today.
Your borrowed analysis misses the mark and is misrepresenting the data.
Plus there are scenarios that have a range of 14k for a 1 year mark.
Taking a snapshot of 4 months ytd and comparing it to a 1 year total without looking at all the scenarios is not the correct interpretation of what they have presented.
schuelma
Well-Known Member
And is also like completely irrelevant to the current discussion...weird
missed my edit
Now if you think at a minimum 20,000+ will die in MN in less than six months then you would be correct.
kong1802
Well-Known Member
You missed mine as well......
ETA: was also pointing out that you were sharing a tweet without giving the credit to the tweet. No snark intended...
Since you are having fun nitpicking, you are wrong again, the graph had the twitter handle on it, smh
So do you think that MN will see 20,000-30,000 deaths YTD?
Communicora
Premium Member
They are referring to 12 months not a calendar year. Day 0 in the model appears to be March 22.
I obviously hope the model is wildly incorrect. It sadly hasn't been so far in terms of deaths.
Does Florida have a model? It would be more relevant to this thread.
kong1802
Well-Known Member
The graph did...
But it seems like you were presenting the analysis of it as your own....
Hopefully I’m mistaken
kong1802
Well-Known Member
Plus the range starts at 14k. So would need 12.5 k more not 20-30k...
And hopefully it is wrong.
So to summarize my original post and my comment still stands.
Yet now you are accusing me of something plagiarism? maybe copyright infringement? not exactly clear, and since your "point" ended up not really going anywhere?
as far as YTD thing now being brought up, sure ok add 3 months, for that matter at 2-3 years, Do you think 10,000 people will die of Covid in the next 2-3 years.
Next up , you can gotcha me on spelling or grammer errors adn you will proablay be right their
Moving on
DisneyDebRob
Well-Known Member
Good read on Florida no matter what side you sit on. Some good things they did early and bad things many have been talking about.
What went wrong in Florida? Timing, testing, tourism and a COVID-19 crush
What went wrong in Florida? Timing, testing, tourism and a COVID-19 crush
www.google.com
kong1802
Well-Known Member
So to summarize my original post and my comment still stands.
Yet now you are accusing me of something plagiarism? maybe copyright infringement? not exactly clear, and since your "point" ended up not really going anywhere?
as far as YTD thing now being brought up, sure ok add 3 months, for that matter at 2-3 years, Do you think 10,000 people will die of Covid in the next 2-3 years.
Next up , you can gotcha me on spelling or grammer errors adn you will proablay be right their
Moving on
Your analysis was just plain wrong, no worries.
Ha, what is wrong by my "analysis" other than you don't like it and are not answering my questions
Polkadotdress
Well-Known Member
Ha, what is wrong by my "analysis" other than you don't like it and are not answering my questions
Seriously? You’re the one that deflects from every direct question. I asked, and have yet to have answered, what you thought “poor management” of this situation in FL looked like.
DisneyCane
Well-Known Member
Having visited AK and Springs today there is no reason to close from a safety perspective. Outside of your home, a nursing home or a hospital there is nowhere that spread will be less likely.
I didn't see a single person at either place not obey the mask requirement. Distancing was followed in all queues. People stayed spaced on the pathways (although I will say that was made easy with the very light crowd). People were using hand sanitizer all the time.
If there is any significant spread with all of the procedures and modifications in place at WDW then there isn't a single business that can operate safely.
Now, from a financial perspective this crowd level can't be sustainable. I'm pretty sure during one ride of dinosaur there were more CMs than guests in the building.
Also, a shout out to all the CMs. They were over the top friendly and were having fun interacting with the guests. Especially the photopass photographers.
I didn't see a single person at either place not obey the mask requirement. Distancing was followed in all queues. People stayed spaced on the pathways (although I will say that was made easy with the very light crowd). People were using hand sanitizer all the time.
If there is any significant spread with all of the procedures and modifications in place at WDW then there isn't a single business that can operate safely.
Now, from a financial perspective this crowd level can't be sustainable. I'm pretty sure during one ride of dinosaur there were more CMs than guests in the building.
Also, a shout out to all the CMs. They were over the top friendly and were having fun interacting with the guests. Especially the photopass photographers.
Miss Bella
Well-Known Member
How long were the wait times? Have you visited other parks? If so I'd love to read your updates. I'll be there in three weeks. The crowd level is probably perfect for reopening. Disney needs to show it's safe then people will book for the Fall and into 2021.
DisneyCane
Well-Known Member
So far just AK. The only wait we had was waiting for sanitizing procedures on Kali. EE was down the whole time we were there.
Navi said 25 minutes at one time but we didn't ride it. Kali and dinosaur we were able to re-ride without getting off. FoP was pretty much just the time to walk through the queue. At the exit they were letting you shortcut back through the FP line to ride again.
Miss Bella
Well-Known Member
I just read in our paper that 4 people died and 29 people hospitalized for drinking hand sanitizer with methanol. I guess 33 people were hospitalized last year for drinking hand sanitizer. I honestly never knew this was a thing. Who knows someday will have to sign a waiver to buy hand sanitizer in this state like we do to buy glue.