Do you think that Disney world will reclose its gates due to the rising number of COVID cases in Florida and around the country?

[oceanbreeze77]

I posted in the other thread, but I'll repost numbers here. First, the numbers in the report are cumulative, since the start of the pandemic.

In today's report, the Orlando Health line says:

10 negative, 512 positive, 98% positivity

I can modify the URL of the report to go back to the 6/28 report and on the Orlando Health line says:

10 negative, 497 positive, 98%

So in 16 days, Orlando Health recorded an additional 15 positives. That's it. That makes no sense given the size of Orlando Health. That implies to me that these "aren't the test numbers we think they are." I don't know what these 100% lines represent. Maybe specific department, or even specific patient?

For the Orlando Veteran's from the 6/28 report:

32 negative, 51 positive

Today: 32, 101 positive

So a total of 50 new positives over 16 days or about 3 per day.

With these types of daily increases, even if there are missing negatives, they only represent a tiny bit of the overall tests that have run over the course of 4 months. No one should doubt that the daily positivity numbers are wildly inaccurate. For every 100,000 "missing" negatives, the overall positivity (over the whole pandemic) changes about .28%.

theres a story, but not the one some people are trying to make it out to be.

 

[Sparksfly]

This is not accurate. I'm an attorney. Plenty of folks do plenty of dumb things and then sue later. Remember, there's always an attorney out there that'll take a case. I'm not arguing with you in the sense that I too believe that personal responsibility and accountability matters. But the legal system does not always view it that strictly.

If I had to spin this . . . "I was concerned about going to Disney. However, I read all about the measures that Disney took to combat the virus and was lulled into thinking that my family could safely enjoy a vacation. Unfortunately, I was mistaken."

These will not be good cases IMO b/c it will be very, very difficult to prove that someone contracted the virus at Disney, but that doesn't mean there isn't an attorney out there that won't try. It'll happen.

Not necessarily too hard to prove if tested negative prior to travel and they stayed on Disney property throughout trip and tested positive after.

 

[legwand77]

theres a story, but not the one some people are trying to make it out to be.

Totally agree with you, when dealing with this amount of data there are going to be some anomalies but not to the extremes either way.

 

[havoc315]

I posted in the other thread, but I'll repost numbers here. First, the numbers in the report are cumulative, since the start of the pandemic.

In today's report, the Orlando Health line says:

10 negative, 512 positive, 98% positivity

I can modify the URL of the report to go back to the 6/28 report and on the Orlando Health line says:

10 negative, 497 positive, 98%

So in 16 days, Orlando Health recorded an additional 15 positives. That's it. That makes no sense given the size of Orlando Health. That implies to me that these "aren't the test numbers we think they are." I don't know what these 100% lines represent. Maybe specific department, or even specific patient?

For the Orlando Veteran's from the 6/28 report:

32 negative, 51 positive

Today: 32, 101 positive

So a total of 50 new positives over 16 days or about 3 per day.

With these types of daily increases, even if there are missing negatives, they only represent a tiny bit of the overall tests that have run over the course of 4 months. No one should doubt that the daily positivity numbers are wildly inaccurate. For every 100,000 "missing" negatives, the overall positivity (over the whole pandemic) changes about .28%.

Good analysis. Reality is -- when data looks funky to a layperson -- One shouldn't just jump to some sort of conspiracy. There could be something erroneous going on, it is certainly possible. But more often than not, it's simply that the raw data is being misunderstood by the layperson.

 

[BASS]

Not necessarily too hard to prove if tested negative prior to travel and they stayed on Disney property throughout trip and tested positive after.

That's also awfully impractical. Consider, first, how many folks will actually get tested prior to a trip and in such a way that excludes contracting it from some other means (such as airport, for example). Then, how many folks are actually limited to the Disney bubble and do not go off-site for restaurants, gas, markets, etc. Causation and correlation are different things. I suspect we will see these cases but it seems to me it'll be pretty hard to pursue.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

Good analysis. Reality is -- when data looks funky to a layperson -- One shouldn't just jump to some sort of conspiracy. There could be something erroneous going on, it is certainly possible. But more often than not, it's simply that the raw data is being misunderstood by the layperson.

also with the virus surging, data is picking up right now and its really being pumped out at an accelerating rate, leaving room for error.

In Houston the fax machines are literally exploding with paper faxes coming in.

 

[legwand77]

also with the virus surging, data is picking up right now and its really being pumped out at an accelerating rate, leaving room for error.

In Houston the fax machines are literally exploding with paper faxes coming in.

using fax machines is indicative of the problems

 

[Touchdown]

using fax machines is indicative of the problems

Thank HIPAA for that, fax=phone call and doesn’t require enhanced privacy software, email=electronic documentation and thus needs to be secure.

 

[Horizons '83]

theres a story, but not the one some people are trying to make it out to be.

There is certainly a story to be told. Another example, although anecdotal of course, my niece made an appointment at CVS to get tested and she cancelled it. A few days later she got a call back saying she tested positive.

 

[kong1802]

There is certainly a story to be told. Another example, although anecdotal of course, my niece made an appointment at CVS to get tested and she cancelled it. A few days later she got a call back saying she tested positive.

I've seen similar stories start to pop up on my FB feed. Wondering how widespread this is and if it can be quantified? And are those erroneous calls/texts being reported? Or are they contacting the wrong people?

 

[Horizons '83]

I've seen similar stories start to pop up on my FB feed. Wondering how widespread this is and if it can be quantified? And are those erroneous calls/texts being reported? Or are they contacting the wrong people?

I'm unsure, but I know my niece wouldn't make up anything like that nor my sister. Just one small example but interesting none the less.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

There is certainly a story to be told. Another example, although anecdotal of course, my niece made an appointment at CVS to get tested and she cancelled it. A few days later she got a call back saying she tested positive.

I'm wondering if this error is one of the reasons for the CVS backlog. I got tested there on Friday and they told me 7-10 days but I have a friend who got tested there 2 Thursdays ago and they've yet to get their result.

 

[kong1802]

I'm unsure, but I know my niece wouldn't make up anything like that nor my sister. Just one small example but interesting none the less.

It's certainly not helping the confidence some have or already don't have in the numbers, that's for sure.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

But what's also interesting is that despite the 7-10 day backlogs, the people who are getting "positives" without taking the test are getting these results 2/3 days after their original appt. I wonder if it has to do with the computer system when there is a no show/cancellation.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

It's certainly not helping the confidence some have or already don't have in the numbers, that's for sure.

the cvs numbers wouldn't cause too much of a difference, they only have about 2 appts every 20 min.

 

[chrisvee]

Consider, first, how many folks will actually get tested prior to a trip and in such a way that excludes contracting it from some other means (such as airport, for example).

Is that even possible? I don’t know anyone in PA who is actually able to get a test without symptoms or known exposure.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

Is that even possible? I don’t know anyone in PA who is actually able to get a test without symptoms or known exposure.

yes, in LA 3 weeks ago everyone could get one, now that theres shortages, only symptomatic people.

 

[chrisvee]

yes, in LA 3 weeks ago everyone could get one, now that theres shortages, only symptomatic people.

I live in the wrong state clearly

 

[OrlandoRising]

There is certainly a story to be told. Another example, although anecdotal of course, my niece made an appointment at CVS to get tested and she cancelled it. A few days later she got a call back saying she tested positive

That sounds very made up.

And the plural of anecdote is not data.

 

[mickeymiss]

I've seen similar stories start to pop up on my FB feed. Wondering how widespread this is and if it can be quantified? And are those erroneous calls/texts being reported? Or are they contacting the wrong people?

I don't mind exposing myself as a paranoid human but this is one reason why I didn't want my husband to get tested instead of quarantine if we traveled out of state. We were looking at going to the CVS drive up too. The other reason was not wanting to join a motorcade of possibly infected people if he ends up being healthy.