Do you really want to return quickly?

[Pepper's Ghost]

Disney will not -let me take a step back- Disney will never go away. They'll be there to visit one day. But if you or your family die because of the virus -due to its unpredictability, no more Disney for you.

Kinda what I'm thinking which is why I don't understand the urgent desire to get back in immediately virus-be-d@mned.

With that said I'm guessing that those who are voting to go in immediately or soon after reopening are probably annual pass holders trying to get your money's worth. I get it. I understand the desire, but not at the expense of my health or life, and not at the expense of others. Just think... your a local with an AP, you go to the park, and return home and interact with dozens of people over the next 5 days. After 5 days you start to feel ill, then worse, get tested and realize you got the virus. How many people did you interact with and potentially give it to while you were non-symptomatic? Gramma or grampa? Mom or dad? Anyone with asthma, the elderly, or someone with other underlying conditions? If any of them die, was it worth it? Do you live with the guilt forever because you had to get in immediately?

I know... it sounds like I'm judging now. I'm really not. I'm just concerned for people in general. This virus is and will devastate so many all over the world and I wish we could minimize the impact.

 

[Raineman]

We only visit once every year or year-and-a-half, so we probably weren't coming back until late 2020-early 2021 anyway. Assuming this is not an extremely long shutdown, we should still be on schedule.

 

[Walt Disney1955]

Right now it is a financial issue for me. Maybe in all of 2020 and perhaps I can't get in until 2021. But if the money issue wasn't there and the parks opened up tomorrow? For sure, I'd be there without a second thought. Why? Because 0.03% of Americans are infected with this and we have never had a shutdown like this in our world for anything else, not even World Wars, Spanish Flu or Swine Flu. Or even 9/11. The NFL and MLB was back within 10 days. WDW opened the day after, I believe. I guess I am the rare person (is it rare?) who doesn't live in fear with this stuff so I would just be happy to go to the parks when there would be short lines.

Like George Constanza said to Kramer once on Seinfeld: "It is people like you that have no fear and you are the types that live until you are 90!"

By the way, not trying to turn this into a Corona thing, I think we all get sick of it, just saying I'd jump at the chance to go if I could.

 

[winstongator]

There is zero chance I would be in the parks April 19. Very small chance May 19, if the parks were open. Slightly higher chance, but still well less than 50-50 June 19.

 

[larryz]

I said I'd wait, but the mess I'm waiting out is RotRoh and SW:GE.

 

[TheGuyThatMakesSwords]

In answer to the original question?

NO. You see, we are DVC Owners, living in MI. Returning is not "all about WDW" - we also have to have safe air transport . And one of our "legs" is via Plague Central (DTW). At 68? We always flew with N95's on. Maybe now, people won't look at us like we are crazy .

 

[NickMaio]

Shutting down again is not going to be an option - this is a one-time event. Let's hope it was worth it.

It was .....could you imagine your country right now with those doors pulling in millions of shoulder to shoulder people each month.
I hope it really get better for the USA.
Prayers are going out for you guys and gals.
Take care.

 

[Herdman]

We've rescheduled our mid May trip until the last week of October with fingers crossed. If the NBA, MLB and other sports leagues don't think it will be safe to have 20,000-40,000 people in the stands until at least the June-July timeframe, I'm not sure how Disney can justify having 50,000-70,000 people in a park all jammed together in May.

 

[DisneyGigi]

Too many precious things to consider before going into those kind of crowds. I canceled for May a few weeks ago. If I wanna risk something, that is one thing, no way my parents, or kids or grandkids. (Anybody else’s for that matter)

 

[eliza61nyc]

So I live in a major city so basically if I get on a bus or a train I'm in the same boat. at some point in time I have to get back to real life. what are folks never planning on going into supermarkets again? what about flying or taking a cruise?

now of course there are so many circumstances to be considered.

I have a trip scheduled for August, if it's open and up and running (parades, night time shows etc) I'm there. now my family consist of young healthy adults so that also helps. I'm just not one to live in fear constantly. this virus is out in the population so like the flu it's going to most likely be with us in some fashion for a while.


edit: this also might be the self quarantine talking. I'm sick of it and ready to be outside again

 

[bryanfze55]

The mortality rate is almost certainly well under 1% in the United States. It’s still not a disease I want to get, but at some point we do need to get back to normal. And people who are high risk may just need to be extra cautious until a vaccine is developed and even quarantine if possible. But if WDW is still closed by summer, we are in trouble as a nation. Can’t cause a depression for something with a sub-1% mortality rate.

 

[Pepper's Ghost]

So I live in a major city so basically if I get on a bus or a train I'm in the same boat. at some point in time I have to get back to real life. what are folks never planning on going into supermarkets again? what about flying or taking a cruise?

I think it's this thought process that will lead people to put themselves in the "line of fire". There aren't two extremes... either stay shuttered forever, or go out immediately. Isn't there a middle ground? I think it's perfectly rational to wait it out to slow the spread, then go back to normal when things die down.

 

[Pepper's Ghost]

The mortality rate is almost certainly well under 1% in the United States. It’s still not a disease I want to get, but at some point we do need to get back to normal. And people who are high risk may just need to be extra cautious until a vaccine is developed and even quarantine if possible. But if WDW is still closed by summer, we are in trouble as a nation. Can’t cause a depression for something with a sub-1% mortality rate.

The confirmed stats don't agree with your assumptions, but I realize you're thinking that unreported cases aren't included, like people who have it and don't leave home or report it. With that said you can't state a sub-1% number as if it were fact because you have no idea if it's true, or even close. I think you're overestimating the number of unreported cases. You're essentially assuming that the number of cases in the U.S. is double.

The reported U.S. mortality rate is 1.8%, and globally it's 4.6%. Let's stick with the U.S. numbers since our medical resources are different than the rest of the world, and call the realistic mortality rate 1.2% including unreported cases as a compromise. The CDC estimates that H1N1 had approximately 43 and 88 million cases, and claimed 8,720 to 18,050 lives in the U.S. alone. Let's choose the lower end of the range on both those numbers. That makes the mortality rate for H1N1 somewhere around 0.02%. If we don't try to slow down COVID-19, and it infects a similar number of 43 million, at 1.2% mortality it will kill 516,000 people in the U.S. alone, and that's using all the low end numbers. Is that not alarming?? Would that not destroy our economy? 516k people is almost as much as cancer kills every year, and three times more than all accidents that cause death annually. What if we ignore the virus and just carry forward with life and this spreads worse? Now granted, it's too early to determine if 1.0% or 1.2% will be true numbers in the end, but I don't think we should take this lightly.

I'm not being an alarmist. I just think people are being flippant about even a 1% mortality rate.

 

[RobWDW1971]

The confirmed stats don't agree with your assumptions, but I realize you're thinking that unreported cases aren't included, like people who have it and don't leave home or report it. With that said you can't state a sub-1% number as if it were fact because you have no idea if it's true, or even close. I think you're overestimating the number of unreported cases. You're essentially assuming that the number of cases in the U.S. is double.

The reported U.S. mortality rate is 1.8%, and globally it's 4.6%. Let's stick with the U.S. numbers since our medical resources are different than the rest of the world, and call the realistic mortality rate 1.2% including unreported cases as a compromise. The CDC estimates that H1N1 had approximately 43 and 88 million cases, and claimed 8,720 to 18,050 lives in the U.S. alone. Let's choose the lower end of the range on both those numbers. That makes the mortality rate for H1N1 somewhere around 0.02%. If we don't try to slow down COVID-19, and it infects a similar number of 43 million, at 1.2% mortality it will kill 516,000 people in the U.S. alone, and that's using all the low end numbers. Is that not alarming?? Would that not destroy our economy? 516k people is almost as much as cancer kills every year, and three times more than all accidents that cause death annually. What if we ignore the virus and just carry forward with life and this spreads worse? Now granted, it's too early to determine if 1.0% or 1.2% will be true numbers in the end, but I don't think we should take this lightly.

I'm not being an alarmist. I just think people are being flippant about even a 1% mortality rate.

43 million infected in the US would be approximately 13% of the entire population. Even in Italy, it has infected only .15%. Spain is at .16%. If you assumed ALL cases in China were in Wuhan (which they weren't), it would be .4%.

It is hard for me to consider a 13% infection rate when we don't even have evidence of a 1% infection rate anywhere around the world, even in countries that were blindsided and have subpar medical facilities.

 

[NelleBelle]

What is alarming to me is how we doubled the amount of deaths in a 24-hr period. Hopefully that is not a trend we continue.

 

[bryanfze55]

The confirmed stats don't agree with your assumptions, but I realize you're thinking that unreported cases aren't included, like people who have it and don't leave home or report it. With that said you can't state a sub-1% number as if it were fact because you have no idea if it's true, or even close. I think you're overestimating the number of unreported cases. You're essentially assuming that the number of cases in the U.S. is double.

The reported U.S. mortality rate is 1.8%, and globally it's 4.6%. Let's stick with the U.S. numbers since our medical resources are different than the rest of the world, and call the realistic mortality rate 1.2% including unreported cases as a compromise. The CDC estimates that H1N1 had approximately 43 and 88 million cases, and claimed 8,720 to 18,050 lives in the U.S. alone. Let's choose the lower end of the range on both those numbers. That makes the mortality rate for H1N1 somewhere around 0.02%. If we don't try to slow down COVID-19, and it infects a similar number of 43 million, at 1.2% mortality it will kill 516,000 people in the U.S. alone, and that's using all the low end numbers. Is that not alarming?? Would that not destroy our economy? 516k people is almost as much as cancer kills every year, and three times more than all accidents that cause death annually. What if we ignore the virus and just carry forward with life and this spreads worse? Now granted, it's too early to determine if 1.0% or 1.2% will be true numbers in the end, but I don't think we should take this lightly.

I'm not being an alarmist. I just think people are being flippant about even a 1% mortality rate.

I don’t think there’s a right or wrong here as we aren’t experts, but I do strongly believe there is at least double the number of cases in the US than is being reported. Getting a test in this country has proven next to impossible for tons of people. This is most definitely more deadly than any recent influenzas, and I do understand the need for a temporary shutdown to flatten the curve...

But we can’t just shut down our way of life for years to protect the elderly and immunocompromised. They will have to protect themselves, and I think it would be a great policy for the government to pay people like that to stay home and deliver them necessities until this passes. But we need to get back to doing commerce soon. A half million people in our country dying would be a great tragedy, but no it would not destroy the economy. Halting the economy for a significant period of time will.

 

[Pepper's Ghost]

43 million infected in the US would be approximately 13% of the entire population. Even in Italy, it has infected only .15%. Spain is at .16%. If you assumed ALL cases in China were in Wuhan (which they weren't), it would be .4%.

It is hard for me to consider a 13% infection rate when we don't even have evidence of a 1% infection rate anywhere around the world, even in countries that were blindsided and have subpar medical facilities.

It's only just begun though. You're basing this on three months of the pandemic, but pandemics can last 12 to 18 months.

 

[RobWDW1971]

It's only just begun though. You're basing this on three months of the pandemic, but pandemics can last 12 to 18 months.

I'm dealing with the current numbers we have around the world - and the countries that are ahead of us like China and South Korea have trended down already after the initial infection.

 

[Pepper's Ghost]

I don’t think there’s a right or wrong here as we aren’t experts,

I agree with this statement, and respect the rest of what you said. I hope you're right. I hope for the best. I really do, but I'm still being cautious.

 

[Pepper's Ghost]

I'm dealing with the current numbers we have around the world - and the countries that are ahead of us like China and South Korea have trended down already after the initial infection.

These countries shut down large areas of their countries to stop the spread. Now they're slowly reopening, and we wait and see what happens.