Disney's Live Action The Little Mermaid

Disney Irish

Disney Irish

Premium Member
MisterPenguin said:
Sorry, @Disney Irish, I'm gonna have to disagree with you on a point of fact.

During the pandemic lockdowns, D+ was just starting to grow, but was posting huge losses as part of being a loss-leader.

With the parks and theaters closed and streaming not profitable, what kept TWDC from having huge losses overall were the linear channels (TV). They were still making a huge profit with ad dollars and subscription to premium channels. It was ABC and Disney Channel that kept TWDC at break-even during the pandemic. They were the only profitable segments during that time.

It's all there in the quarterly filings.

Now, that doesn't mean that D+ wasn't necessary. Those linear channels which kept TWDC afloat are dying with all the cord cutting, which is still continuing. If TWDC doesn't find a way to monetize content apart from linear channels, they'd be a very bad place.

Remember how stock analysts would predict that ESPN (the linear channel) would drag Disney down, so... sell it!..?

The answer is to switch to what is destined to replace the Cable Box, namely streaming with D+, Hulu, and ESPN+.

That's why D+ became the #1 priority, even at the expense of theatrical success.

TWDC failed to notice that winning the streaming war at all costs by goosing subscriptions would only work as a short term strategy. Or they did recognize it (because steep price hikes were always part of the plan), but, they didn't switch tactics fast enough. It caught Chapek by surprise. And now Iger is talking up quality of subs instead of quantity.

It's a painful lesson all the streamers learned last year.
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As always I appreciate your opinion and analysis, I just have a different one with regard to D+ importance during the pandemic and what it would have meant if it was never launched.

But I do agree with the rest.
 
wtyy21

wtyy21

Well-Known Member
Disney Irish said:
I suspect it'll end its run just over the $560M mark.
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In terms of budget of $250M, this film would be more comparable to the 50th Disney animated film Tangled (2010, $260M) in terms of box office. Tangled had final box office run of $592 million and was flopped domestically ($200.8M) while more successful internationally ($391.6M). Tangled had similar production delays as The Little Mermaid live-action remake while not due to COVID-19, which resulting its box office budget more expensive for the animated film (tied with CGI-animated version of The Lion King in 2019).
www.cbr.com

How Disney's Tangled Became the Most Expensive Animated Film of All Time

Here’s how copious reworks and rewrites spiraled Tangled into a massive 14-year development cycle with an even bigger budget.
www.cbr.com www.cbr.com
 
TP2000

TP2000

Well-Known Member
Mermaid has been out almost 7 weeks now globally. So far it's at least $74 Million in the red. That's assuming they only spent $100 Million on marketing, although most industry reports are stating a $140 Million ad budget.

Using the most optimistic 60% domestic/40% overseas box office take, Mermaid currently stands at this loss level for Disney;

$250 Million Production Budget/$100 Million Marketing Budget = $74 Million Loss for Disney
$250 Million Production Budget/$140 Million Marketing Budget = $114 Million Loss for Disney

But hey, at least there's Elemental, Indy 5 and Haunted Mansion, right? Plus DVD sales. And Halloween costumes.

Mermaid.jpg


www.the-numbers.com

Movie Comparison: The Little Mermaid (2023) vs. The Lion King (2019)

Domestic box office comparison between The Little Mermaid (2023) and The Lion King (2019)
www.the-numbers.com www.the-numbers.com

sffgazette.com

THE LITTLE MERMAID Trailer's Premiere During The Oscars Cost Disney An Arm And A Leg Fin

New details have surfaced about how much Disney had to splash out to premiere The Little Mermaid trailer during this year's Academy Awards, and it's a good job the studio has deep pockets! Check it out...
sffgazette.com sffgazette.com
 
Farerb

Farerb

Well-Known Member
Disney Irish said:
And yes, just like Moana and Encanto, TLM is going to be put on repeat once it hits D+. I have no doubt we'll see it in the Nielsen numbers.
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I disagree. You're comparing a remake to animated originals. So far the remakes have a short shelf life, and no one cares about them anymore. I really don't think anyone would care to rewatch the remake when they can just rewatch the superior original.
 
TP2000

TP2000

Well-Known Member
Farerb said:
I disagree. You're comparing a remake to animated originals. So far the remakes have a short shelf life, and no one cares about them anymore. I really don't think anyone would care to rewatch the remake when they can just rewatch the superior original.
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Great point.

Are people in 2023 watching the 1995 Lion King original, or the 2019 remake? The 1992 Aladdin original, or the 2019 remake?

My bet is that it's the originals that still get re-watched.

Perhaps one lone exception is The Jungle Book, but only because the 1967 original was too unknown to today's Millenial parents of young children, so both the parents and the kids probably think the 2017 remake is the only one.
 
Sirwalterraleigh

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
Disney Irish said:
Um, the stated goal from launch was always ramp up subscribers for 5 years to hit profitability in 2024. Disney never really wavered from that goal, even after they hit subscriber targets right at launch earlier than expected they still maintained the 5 year goal of profitability in 2024. That was the goal day one, and they are knocking at the door of hitting that same goal on time.
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Read that part very closely and then explain why that is reasonable? Use small words..
Disney Analyst said:
I think this is what everyone forgets.

Now if Disney misses profitability of Disney+ in 2024, then we have a lot to discuss.

And when they hit that planned goal, Wall Street will drive the price of the stock up again. 🙃
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That’s the part that is 100% spin…
 
LSLS

LSLS

Well-Known Member
TP2000 said:
Mermaid has been out almost 7 weeks now globally. So far it's at least $74 Million in the red. That's assuming they only spent $100 Million on marketing, although most industry reports are stating a $140 Million ad budget.

Using the most optimistic 60% domestic/40% overseas box office take, Mermaid currently stands at this loss level for Disney;

$250 Million Production Budget/$100 Million Marketing Budget = $74 Million Loss for Disney
$250 Million Production Budget/$140 Million Marketing Budget = $114 Million Loss for Disney

But hey, at least there's Elemental, Indy 5 and Haunted Mansion, right? Plus DVD sales. And Halloween costumes.

View attachment 729859

www.the-numbers.com

Movie Comparison: The Little Mermaid (2023) vs. The Lion King (2019)

Domestic box office comparison between The Little Mermaid (2023) and The Lion King (2019)
www.the-numbers.com www.the-numbers.com

sffgazette.com

THE LITTLE MERMAID Trailer's Premiere During The Oscars Cost Disney An Arm And A Leg Fin

New details have surfaced about how much Disney had to splash out to premiere The Little Mermaid trailer during this year's Academy Awards, and it's a good job the studio has deep pockets! Check it out...
sffgazette.com sffgazette.com
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I dont think those numbers are true either. If they did indeed spend $100 mil marketing, that's not made up for at a 1:1 ratio. You would still need to assume they only get half of every dollar made at the box office, meaning that to recoup the $100 mil cost, they need to make and extra $200 mil at the box office. Unless that extra is baked into the marketing cost somehow.
 
CaptainAmerica

CaptainAmerica

Premium Member
LSLS said:
I dont think those numbers are true either. If they did indeed spend $100 mil marketing, that's not made up for at a 1:1 ratio. You would still need to assume they only get half of every dollar made at the box office, meaning that to recoup the $100 mil cost, they need to make and extra $200 mil at the box office. Unless that extra is baked into the marketing cost somehow.
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@TP2000 accounted for that when gave Disney 60% credit for the Domestic box office and 40% credit for the International box office.

You need to do one of the following:

- Double the production and marketing budget and compare that to the TOTAL box office, OR;

- Halve the total box office (in this case what TP did slightly more precisely taking 60% Domestic, 40% International) and compare that to the production and marketing budget without doubling it.

You don't halve the box office AND double the budget, you do one or the other.
 
LSLS

LSLS

Well-Known Member
CaptainAmerica said:
@TP2000 accounted for that when gave Disney 60% credit for the Domestic box office and 40% credit for the International box office.

You need to do one of the following:

- Double the production and marketing budget and compare that to the TOTAL box office, OR;

- Halve the total box office (in this case what TP did slightly more precisely taking 60% Domestic, 40% International) and compare that to the production and marketing budget without doubling it.

You don't halve the box office AND double the budget, you do one or the other.
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Yup, totally skipped over that line in his post (too early for me I guess and I'm just used to that number not being accounted for correctly).
 
Jedijax719

Jedijax719

Well-Known Member
Bottom line (since this IS the Little mermaid thread):
1. TLM was a decent sized hit domestically. So it's mostly a win there. 85% of the pre-pandemic runaway hit Aladdin isn't bad.
2. TLM was a bit of a catastrophe overseas. It will have made $600 million less than Aladdin globally and a BILLION less than Lion King. We can endlessly debate the reasons, but we all know what they are.
3. Profits and marketing are a business matter for Disney. Blah blah blah. If your life savings is dependent on Disney's profits, then you can have a tantrum and are justified for doing so. However, that is a business matter and not merely a box office matter per se and certainly not a specific movie matter. One movie isn't making any lay person poor.

People can show off what they know about the stock market and business side of things, but that isn't the fault of mermaids everywhere, Rob Marshall, or Halle Bailey.
 
Bullseye1967

Bullseye1967

Is that who I am?
Premium Member
Disney Irish said:
The only reason Disney stock remained high during the pandemic is because of D+. Had there been no D+ its very possible the stock would have plummeted into single digits making it ripe for take over. Remember D+ was the only business unit bringing in money. Parks, theaters, cruise line, studios, every other business unit was shut down for a long time with no end in sight.

So yes while D+ hasn't yet turned a profit it was bringing money into the company at a time when no other business unit was. Thus allowing the stock to remain high, thus allowing the company to take out bridge loans to maintain operations, etc.

It amazes me how many people forget the time period we're talking about.
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You can have your opinion, but please explain, if you would how Disney would bleed off billions in less than a year and go bankrupt? The segments that were shut down were not staffed, they laid off a bunch of CMs. It wasn't payroll. I mean seriously WDW was shut down for a few months. ESPN got up and running pretty quick and ABC actually gained market share.
 

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