Disney's Live Action The Little Mermaid

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Its simple math as some around here like to point out....

Let’s do some simple math:

$250
X
2

Subtotal + $140 = Total

TOTAL - $543 = ???


Let me know if the order of operations trips you up? And I used the low end numbers to handicap it for poor Bob

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The stock price was never higher than when theatres were essentially all closed though. I’m not questioning that it’s illogical, just pointing out it really doesn’t have as much to do with box office as opposed to exuberance followed by negative sentiment on streaming. The stock started to crash on the back of Netflix subscriber loses in Q1 2022. It built from there until Chapek’s fateful quarter.

That another portion of the company is in doldrums doesn’t help, but the majority of this wild ride seems to be streaming prognostication.

Disney is not worth $200…there was zero money behind that…

You can’t rate what has happened to that bogus figure in a vacuum…you remember how much world bank/us treasury juju was being sent over the mainframes??

You certainly can’t trust that number and blame Netflix and chapek

The truth is right under your nose…
Literally…about 5’5” in heels

 

[Disney Irish]

Let’s do some simple math:

$250
X
2

Subtotal + $140 = Total

TOTAL - $543 = ???


Let me know if the order of operations trips you up? And I used the low end numbers to handicap it for poor Bob

And yet you can't seem to understand the simple math of how losing subscribers with an ARPU of $0.59 per month while gaining subscribers with an ARPU of $5.93 is actually a good thing.

Let me know if adding up dollars and cents trips you up. And I used the real numbers direct from the earnings report.

 

[Disstevefan1]

And yet you can't seem to understand the simple math of how losing subscribers with an ARPU of $0.59 per month while gaining subscribers with an ARPU of $5.93 is actually a good thing.

Let me know if adding up dollars and cents trips you up. And I used the real numbers direct from the earnings report.

Sincere question.

Disney is gaining subscribers with an ARPU of $5.93?

Are there numbers posted somewhere?

 

[MisterPenguin]

Sincere question.

Disney is gaining subscribers with an ARPU of $5.93?

Are there numbers posted somewhere?

https://thewaltdisneycompany.com/app/uploads/2023/05/Supplemental-Information-for-Direct-to-Consumer-05-10-23.xlsx

In the last quarterly report on ARPU (Average Revenue Per User):

Domestic D+ had 46.3M subs at ARPU of $7.14 = $331M per month
International D+ had 58.5M subs at ARPU of $5.93 = $347M per month
Hotstar India had 157.8M subs at ARPU of $0.59 = $93M per month

Total per month: $771M
Per year if nothing changed: $9.3B


Hulu had 43.7M subs at ARPU of $11.7 = $511M per month

Hulu+Live had 4.4M subs at ARPU of $92.32 = $406 per month

ESPN+ had 25.3M subs at ARPU of $5.64 = $143M per month

 

[Disstevefan1]

https://thewaltdisneycompany.com/app/uploads/2023/05/Supplemental-Information-for-Direct-to-Consumer-05-10-23.xlsx

Well, the numbers are going in the right direction. TLM for sure won't result in Disney losing subscribers.

 

[Disney Irish]

Well, the numbers are going in the right direction. TLM for sure won't result in Disney losing subscribers.

Yes, which is why one can see that profitability in 2024 is very much attainable, if one is actually honest about the viability of streaming.

And I think TLM will be very additive to D+ in the long term, especially in repeat viewings.

 

[Disstevefan1]

Yes, which is why one can see that profitability in 2024 is very much attainable, if one is actually honest about the viability of streaming.

And I think TLM will be very additive to D+ in the long term, especially in repeat viewings.

I love streaming. I much prefer streaming to going to the theater. I am subscribed to too many services at this point frankly.

But with the massive losses Disney is racking up with D+ Disney was probably better off never starting D+ and simply selling content to other services.

Time will tell. My heart wants D+ to survive.

My heart also wanted the Osborne lights to remain forever.

As for repeat viewings, it probably happens a lot with families with kids. There will probably be a lot of little girls repeat viewing TLM when it eventually gets on D+

 

[Sir_Cliff]

I love streaming. I much prefer streaming to going to the theater. I am subscribed to too many services at this point frankly.

But with the massive losses Disney is racking up with D+ Disney was probably better off never starting D+ and simply selling content to other services.

Strongly disagree with this.

I think Disney basically had to get into the streaming market when they did and are probably one of the established entertainment companies that has the best shot of making it work. Considering the size of the company at this point, they would not have wanted to enter into the era of streaming dealing with the streaming services in the way they dealt with cable operators, having to negotiate contracts at regular intervals in order to get their content in front of an audience. As cinemas and traditional forms of home entertainment decline, they really would have found themselves in a very vulnerable position with increasingly narrow avenues for distributing their content over which they had almost no control.

There has been a lot of talk of the share price on here and Disney+ losses, so I think you have to keep in mind how harshly Wall Street would have reacted to Disney if they had of decided to just sit back and happily make content while leaving the distribution to other companies. Then, I think, we would really be talking about a company at risk of being swallowed up by a company with a higher market valuation looking for content.

As has been mentioned many times on here already, a lot of Disney+'s losses are also money they're paying to themselves for content, essentially helping to subsidise the output of the studios.

 

[Disstevefan1]

Strongly disagree with this.

I think Disney basically had to get into the streaming market when they did and are probably one of the established entertainment companies that has the best shot of making it work. Considering the size of the company at this point, they would not have wanted to enter into the era of streaming dealing with the streaming services in the way they dealt with cable networks, having to negotiate contracts at regular intervals in order to get their content in front of an audience. As cinemas and traditional forms of home entertainment decline, they really would have found themselves in a very vulnerable position with increasingly narrow avenues for distributing their content over which they had almost no control.

There has been a lot of talk of the share price on here and Disney+ losses, so I think you have to keep in mind how harshly Wall Street would have reacted to Disney if they had of decided to just sit back and happily make content while leaving the distribution to other companies. Then, I think, we would really be talking about a company at risk of being swallowed up by a company with a higher market valuation looking for content.

As has been mentioned many times on here already, a lot of Disney+'s losses are also money they're paying to themselves for content, essentially helping to subsidise the output of the studios.

TWDC is indeed too big to fail. Over 50 percent of the company is owned by institutional investors.

Therefore, if there is any company that is allowed to burn through truckloads of money between D+ and its movie business, its TWDC.

Since there is in effect, an unlimited supply of money to burn through, TWDC has the best shot at getting their streaming business going.

In my heart I want D+ to succeed.

I think Wall Street has no choice but to grin and bear it.

 

[Dranth]

I would not subscribe to the D+ you describe, and I think a lot of others would jump ship too.

What miraculous set of circumstances would have placed a more “forward thinking” CEO in charge? As you said, the entire economic and entertainment community went all in on streaming. A CEO trying to buck that trend would very likely have been fired (ignoring the impossibility of their hiring in the first place). Similarly, what set of circumstances would cause the current board to select a CEO eager to ignore the most firmly held convictions of Wall Street?

So, you wouldn't sign up for or keep a version of D+ that was basically what they originally offered? Even when including the additional fox content? What about it would make you leave? I am not talking about stopping all big budget original content, more along the line of only getting 2 marvel shows a year instead of 3 or 4 as an example.

In the end, if that isn’t appealing to you and you leave that is certainly up to you, but we can’t expect them to keep the pace and cost of what they have been doing. As a publicly traded company they just can’t. They have to control costs.

That leads into the more forward thinking CEO comment. It was not about getting into streaming, I don't think that was a bad idea, it is more about how they handled much of it once they got in.

They got SO focused on the singular goal of subscriber numbers that they couldn’t even foresee a scenario where that was no longer the main concern of Wall Street. For example, a good management group would absolutely push subscriber numbers while that was the hot thing but not at the expense of blowing the publicly stated goal of profitability you had been touting since day one. Now they are in a position where they are putting in some pretty drastic measures to try and meet that goal because the people running the place couldn’t see anything beyond the current moment in time.

Anecdotal I know, but I have worked with a good number of management teams over the years and seen many companies face similar Wall Street driven hysteria. Some came out the other side better than others but almost exclusively, it was the ones who kept a more open mind and didn’t double/triple down to chase the current trend at the expense of the rest of their company that did the best.

I am not saying a different management team would have nailed it and made it through free of any scrapes or bruises, but there are degrees to these things. Disney, as a company, and us fans of that company deserve a group that falls on the better side of the line more often than not and that is NOT what we have been getting for a long while now.

 

[Disney Irish]

I love streaming. I much prefer streaming to going to the theater. I am subscribed to too many services at this point frankly.

But with the massive losses Disney is racking up with D+ Disney was probably better off never starting D+ and simply selling content to other services.

Time will tell. My heart wants D+ to survive.

My heart also wanted the Osborne lights to remain forever.

As for repeat viewings, it probably happens a lot with families with kids. There will probably be a lot of little girls repeat viewing TLM when it eventually gets on D+

Had D+ not launched its very likely TWDC wouldn't be here today. Remember the time period, shortly after launch the pandemic hit, with no D+ basically Disney has no money coming in at all. There was real fear amongst many here that TWDC wouldn't survive all operations being shutdown long term. Its only because of D+ that Disney got saved from potentially going bankrupt and taken over by another company. Now I know some would have liked that give how they feel about current management, but there is no telling how it would have turned out. For all we know it could have been taken over by a corporate raider who would have broke up the company and sold it for spare parts. You think you guy have gripes against current management now regarding things like the Parks, imagine it being owned by someone else who wouldn't treat it half as good as current management.

Point is don't be so quick to dismiss how important D+ has been and will continue to be for TWDC.

And yes, just like Moana and Encanto, TLM is going to be put on repeat once it hits D+. I have no doubt we'll see it in the Nielsen numbers.

 

[erasure fan1]

Had D+ not launched its very likely TWDC wouldn't be here today. Remember the time period, shortly after launch the pandemic hit, with no D+ basically Disney has no money coming in at all.

Yea, I don't believe that Disney would have had any real issue if D+ wasn't around when covid hit. They could have EASILY sold their content to any or all the streaming providers like Netflix or Max. They could have licensed out to cable networks. Heck they could have made most all of their movies available for paid rental. It's amazing how much of the last 3 or so years isn't available to rent. D+ wasn't some company savior in my opinion. They'd have found alternative ways to get paid for their content.

 

[Disney Irish]

So, you wouldn't sign up for or keep a version of D+ that was basically what they originally offered? Even when including the additional fox content? What about it would make you leave? I am not talking about stopping all big budget original content, more along the line of only getting 2 marvel shows a year instead of 3 or 4 as an example.

In the end, if that isn’t appealing to you and you leave that is certainly up to you, but we can’t expect them to keep the pace and cost of what they have been doing. As a publicly traded company they just can’t. They have to control costs.

That leads into the more forward thinking CEO comment. It was not about getting into streaming, I don't think that was a bad idea, it is more about how they handled much of it once they got in.

They got SO focused on the singular goal of subscriber numbers that they couldn’t even foresee a scenario where that was no longer the main concern of Wall Street. For example, a good management group would absolutely push subscriber numbers while that was the hot thing but not at the expense of blowing the publicly stated goal of profitability you had been touting since day one. Now they are in a position where they are putting in some pretty drastic measures to try and meet that goal because the people running the place couldn’t see anything beyond the current moment in time.

Anecdotal I know, but I have worked with a good number of management teams over the years and seen many companies face similar Wall Street driven hysteria. Some came out the other side better than others but almost exclusively, it was the ones who kept a more open mind and didn’t double/triple down to chase the current trend at the expense of the rest of their company that did the best.

I am not saying a different management team would have nailed it and made it through free of any scrapes or bruises, but there are degrees to these things. Disney, as a company, and us fans of that company deserve a group that falls on the better side of the line more often than not and that is NOT what we have been getting for a long while now.

Um, the stated goal from launch was always ramp up subscribers for 5 years to hit profitability in 2024. Disney never really wavered from that goal, even after they hit subscriber targets right at launch earlier than expected they still maintained the 5 year goal of profitability in 2024. That was the goal day one, and they are knocking at the door of hitting that same goal on time.

 

[LSLS]

Had D+ not launched its very likely TWDC wouldn't be here today. Remember the time period, shortly after launch the pandemic hit, with no D+ basically Disney has no money coming in at all. There was real fear amongst many here that TWDC wouldn't survive all operations being shutdown long term. Its only because of D+ that Disney got saved from potentially going bankrupt and taken over by another company. Now I know some would have liked that give how they feel about current management, but there is no telling how it would have turned out. For all we know it could have been taken over by a corporate raider who would have broke up the company and sold it for spare parts. You think you guy have gripes against current management now regarding things like the Parks, imagine it being owned by someone else who wouldn't treat it half as good as current management.

Point is don't be so quick to dismiss how important D+ has been and will continue to be for TWDC.

And yes, just like Moana and Encanto, TLM is going to be put on repeat once it hits D+. I have no doubt we'll see it in the Nielsen numbers.

There's no way that's true. D+ has never turned a profit unless I missed something. You are correct it wasn't supposed to yet, but you can't say they would have gone bankrupt without something that was costing them more money than they were making. Instead, they would have been selling their libraries off to the other streaming services. I'm not saying D+ was the wrong move or anything like that, but it didn't save the company during the pandemic.

 

[Disney Irish]

Yea, I don't believe that Disney would have had any real issue if D+ wasn't around when covid hit. They could have EASILY sold their content to any or all the streaming providers like Netflix or Max. They could have licensed out to cable networks. Heck they could have made most all of their movies available for paid rental. It's amazing how much of the last 3 or so years isn't available to rent. D+ wasn't some company savior in my opinion. They'd have found alternative ways to get paid for their content.

Its basically only because D+ launched that Max (HBO Max) even launched. There is no guarantee that had Disney not announced plans to get into streaming in 2016 starting with ESPN, and then 2017 with D+, that any other streamer would have existed. Basically every other studio followed Disney's decision to get into streaming.

So other than Netflix and maybe Prime there is likely not many if any at all they would have been able to sell content to at the time.

 

[Disney Analyst]

Um, the stated goal from launch was always ramp up subscribers for 5 years to hit profitability in 2024. Disney never really wavered from that goal, even after they hit subscriber targets right at launch earlier than expected they still maintained the 5 year goal of profitability in 2024. That was the goal day one, and they are knocking at the door of hitting that same goal on time.

I think this is what everyone forgets.

Now if Disney misses profitability of Disney+ in 2024, then we have a lot to discuss.

And when they hit that planned goal, Wall Street will drive the price of the stock up again.

 

[Disney Irish]

There's no way that's true. D+ has never turned a profit unless I missed something. You are correct it wasn't supposed to yet, but you can't say they would have gone bankrupt without something that was costing them more money than they were making. Instead, they would have been selling their libraries off to the other streaming services. I'm not saying D+ was the wrong move or anything like that, but it didn't save the company during the pandemic.

The only reason Disney stock remained high during the pandemic is because of D+. Had there been no D+ its very possible the stock would have plummeted into single digits making it ripe for take over. Remember D+ was the only business unit bringing in money. Parks, theaters, cruise line, studios, every other business unit was shut down for a long time with no end in sight.

So yes while D+ hasn't yet turned a profit it was bringing money into the company at a time when no other business unit was. Thus allowing the stock to remain high, thus allowing the company to take out bridge loans to maintain operations, etc.

It amazes me how many people forget the time period we're talking about.

 

[Disney Analyst]

The only reason Disney stock remained high during the pandemic is because of D+. Had there been no D+ its very possible the stock would have plummeted into single digits making it ripe for take over. Remember D+ was the only business unit bringing in money. Parks, theaters, cruise line, studios, every other business unit was shut down for a long time with no end in sight.

So yes while D+ hasn't yet turned a profit it was bringing money into the company at a time when no other business unit was. Thus allowing the stock to remain high, thus allowing the company to take out bridge loans to maintain operations, etc.

It amazes me how many people forget the time period we're talking about.

I thought it was insane how high the stock went when the majority of the company was shut down. All because at that time Wall Street only cared about subscriber numbers.

Now Wall Street has changed what they look for in a streamer (profit), and the stocks severely adjusted back down.

 

[Disney Irish]

I think this is what everyone forgets.

Now if Disney misses profitability of Disney+ in 2024, then we have a lot to discuss.

And when they hit that planned goal, Wall Street will drive the price of the stock up again.

Yep agree on both points.

I thought it was insane how high the stock went when the majority of the company was shut down. All because at that time Wall Street only cared about subscriber numbers.

Now Wall Street has changed what they look for in a streamer (profit), and the stocks severely adjusted back down.

Again agree.