Disstevefan1
Well-Known Member
WOW! this is 300 percent wrong!
To say TWDC would not be here blows my mind!!!! Never happen.
TWDC for sure would be here, and their movies would be making money when they sell the content to other screamers.
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Disney's Live Action The Little Mermaid
- Thread starter NateD1226
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To say TWDC would not be here blows my mind!!!! Never happen.
TWDC for sure would be here, and their movies would be making money when they sell the content to other screamers.
erasure fan1
Well-Known Member
It doesn't matter who. Content distributors would have lined up to pay Disney for their content. Of that I have no doubts. Hbo, showtime, starz, Netflix.... Zero D+ wouldn't by any stretch of the imagination have caused them to go bankrupt. Heck, making their catalog available to Vudu for rental alone would have made them tons of cash. You can support D+, that's fine. But that's a pretty outlandish claim in my opinion.
LSLS
Well-Known Member
There is no chance. Cedar Fairs is a STRICTLY amusement park company (so they were really hammered), and their stock did not drop to single digits. Paramount did not drop that. They both dropped by about half. Half of Disney would have been 20 more points than what it did drop. I'd agree that D+ helped with that. But you literally said they would have gone BANKRUPT without it, that is nowhere close to true. I don't even buy they would have been in some grand hostile takeover without it. They would have very quickly sold off more rights to more stuff
Disney Irish
Premium Member
You're entitled to those opinions, just like I'm entitled to mine, and I'm happy we didn't have to find out. But I have no doubt in my mind that had D+ not launched when it did that either TWDC wouldn't be here today or at the very least wouldn't be the same company in so many ways that we all love (or in some cases love to hate). Again I'm happy we didn't have to find out.
Point is don't be so quick to discount D+'s importance and contributions to the company over the course of its short history.
LSLS
Well-Known Member
That's fine, but the fact is much smaller companies that have much less-no revenue streams during lockdown did not drop as much as you are saying Disney would have. You are talking about a Fortune 100 company blowing through ALL it's money to bankrupcy over the course of like 3 months. Their stock becoming totally worthless because of the pandemic, and being totally unable to find any way to slow/stop it. Companies like Dillards saw drops of 50%, but you think Disney drops by 95%. By the way, Netflix actually had a drop when the lockdowns started as well. Not as bad as the others we have discussed, but right around 10%. You can have your opinions, but the evidence I'm seeing doesn't come close to backing your conclusions.
erasure fan1
Well-Known Member
I'm curious as to why you think this. Like others have said, they were spending more on it than they were bringing in. I just can't do any mental gymnastics to come to the same conclusion.
Disney Irish
Premium Member
And you're assuming that DIS stock would have been exactly where it was at right before the pandemic. A lot of the valuation pre-pandemic was the run up in anticipation of and post D+ launch including the 21CF acquisition (which is a discussion unto itself). So who knows where DIS stock would have been in 2020 right before the pandemic had D+ not been announced, but it would have dropped and dropped a lot.
Some of these discussions are best had in other threads not one about TLM.
LSLS
Well-Known Member
Disney stock in July 2015 (2 years before 21st century, 4 before the D+ launch) was $120. You are correct, I'm assuming it would not have been below Cedar Fairs or Paramount. Again, I'm not arguing that D+ was a bad thing or even doesn't help them, I'm taking issue with this idea Disney would cease to exist without it.
Disstevefan1
Well-Known Member
Disney Irish
Premium Member
I've explained my position, if you don't see it and/or have a different opinion that is fine. And again I'm glad we didn't have to go through that.
But DIS wouldn't have been just fine and dandy without D+ when the pandemic hit, even with licensing or selling assets. I strongly believe it would have been taken over by someone, and maybe even sold off for parts.
Maybe one day someone can do a real "what if" history scenario of what could have happened if Disney didn't getting into streaming.
But I suggest we just end this discussion in this thread. If someone wants to keep talking about it lets take it over to the D+ thread.
Dranth
Well-Known Member
Agreed, that was always the stated goal and I also believe they are going to hit it. However, it took firing their CEO and reinstalling one who immediately introduced some drastic measures to drop spending. Without that, there was little chance they were going to hit that 2024 date and it is one reason Chapek got the boot. Let's not forget the uproar he caused when he basically sat there on an earnings call and told people everything was great with streaming and to ignore the fact that their spend was astronomical compared to the guidance they had given. That they would somehow still hit their target but when questioned by investors on how that was going to happen he deflected and in the end offered NO plan. Needless to say it did not go over well.
Disney Irish
Premium Member
Again that is my opinion, you are entitled to have a different one.
Disney Irish
Premium Member
LMAO, if you really think TWDC is invincible then I'd like to talk to you about a little investment opportunity....
Disney Irish
Premium Member
I think we're on the same page here. And I'm not saying its been all roses and rainbows, and eventually they would have had to cut spending especially in the long term. But their stated goals have remained pretty much the same, with only a few adjustments to sub targets. How they get there, as with any company trying to hit revenue goals, is always in the details.
Disstevefan1
Well-Known Member
TWDC is too big to fail. Too many institutional investors.
Disney Irish
Premium Member
Once again if you really think that I'd like to talk to you about a land investment opportunity that I think you would be perfect for.TWDC is too big to fail. Too many institutional investors.
I don't think anyone here can't claim that I'm not a "rah rah Disney" poster, but even I'm not silly enough to think DIS is not too big to fail.
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Disstevefan1
Well-Known Member
Well, yes, not invincible.
I have crossed "global pandemic" off my list of things that could end them.
There are other things on my list I don't want to even mention.
One thing that will never be on my list is, "Not having D+"
TWDC are being allowed to lose enough money on D+ every quarter to build and immediately sink a cruise ship.
It's a good thing they cut back on the EPCOT renovation and closed the Star Cruiser to save some money.
Disney Irish
Premium Member
Lets just agree to disagree because this derailed discussion has gone on long enough. If anyone wants to continue it we can do it in this thread - https://forums.wdwmagic.com/threads...ces-disney-and-hulu-espn-star-hotstar.951364/
CaptainAmerica
Premium Member
You're being far too generous and adding the $140 at the wrong spot.Let’s do some simple math:
$250
X
2
Subtotal + $140 = Total
TOTAL - $543 = ???
Let me know if the order of operations trips you up? And I used the low end numbers to handicap it for poor Bob
$250 + $140
Subtotal x 2 = Total
Total = $780
Sorry, @Disney Irish, I'm gonna have to disagree with you on a point of fact.
During the pandemic lockdowns, D+ was just starting to grow, but was posting huge losses as part of being a loss-leader.
With the parks and theaters closed and streaming not profitable, what kept TWDC from having huge losses overall were the linear channels (TV). They were still making a huge profit with ad dollars and subscription to premium channels. It was ABC and Disney Channel that kept TWDC at break-even during the pandemic. They were the only profitable segments during that time.
It's all there in the quarterly filings.
Now, that doesn't mean that D+ wasn't necessary. Those linear channels which kept TWDC afloat are dying with all the cord cutting, which is still continuing. If TWDC doesn't find a way to monetize content apart from linear channels, they'd be a very bad place.
Remember how stock analysts would predict that ESPN (the linear channel) would drag Disney down, so... sell it!..?
The answer is to switch to what is destined to replace the Cable Box, namely streaming with D+, Hulu, and ESPN+.
That's why D+ became the #1 priority, even at the expense of theatrical success.
TWDC failed to notice that winning the streaming war at all costs by goosing subscriptions would only work as a short term strategy. Or they did recognize it (because steep price hikes were always part of the plan), but, they didn't switch tactics fast enough. It caught Chapek by surprise. And now Iger is talking up quality of subs instead of quantity.
It's a painful lesson all the streamers learned last year.
During the pandemic lockdowns, D+ was just starting to grow, but was posting huge losses as part of being a loss-leader.
With the parks and theaters closed and streaming not profitable, what kept TWDC from having huge losses overall were the linear channels (TV). They were still making a huge profit with ad dollars and subscription to premium channels. It was ABC and Disney Channel that kept TWDC at break-even during the pandemic. They were the only profitable segments during that time.
It's all there in the quarterly filings.
Now, that doesn't mean that D+ wasn't necessary. Those linear channels which kept TWDC afloat are dying with all the cord cutting, which is still continuing. If TWDC doesn't find a way to monetize content apart from linear channels, they'd be a very bad place.
Remember how stock analysts would predict that ESPN (the linear channel) would drag Disney down, so... sell it!..?
The answer is to switch to what is destined to replace the Cable Box, namely streaming with D+, Hulu, and ESPN+.
That's why D+ became the #1 priority, even at the expense of theatrical success.
TWDC failed to notice that winning the streaming war at all costs by goosing subscriptions would only work as a short term strategy. Or they did recognize it (because steep price hikes were always part of the plan), but, they didn't switch tactics fast enough. It caught Chapek by surprise. And now Iger is talking up quality of subs instead of quantity.
It's a painful lesson all the streamers learned last year.