Disney(World) vs. Disney(land)?

[WDW1974]

Random thoughts from conference call as I listen to it:

Bob Iger absolutely destroyed any hint of any additional capital investment coming to WDPR aside from New Fantasyland and Shanghai Disneyland. I would presume that Avatarland is implied when they speak of expeditures going forward but it was not mentioned by name.

WDPR profits were massively juiced by Tokyo Disney's revenues coming back and a new cruise ship. DIsney is reporting Domestic Parks attendance as up 1% on the quarter. We know how Disneyland's summer has played out so it goes without saying that WDW is running off the rails. The conference call also notes that numbers of rooms occupied was on par with prior year but available inventory has increased. This means that WDW is having major trouble selling new construction and is cannibalizing existing inventory with new product. And that was reflected in Q3 which ended June 30. For the bean counters, July absolutely sucked for Walt Disney World with water parks being the only bright spot against lower theme park attendance and noticably lower room sales. This is also reflected with lower Magical Express ridership and fewer dining packages sold. Whether Disney bothers confirming this during the Q&A segment is anybody's guess.

EDIT: My question was already answered. Disney reporting that Q4 room bookings up 1% with prices higher at 4%. No breakdown of how these numbers breakdown with respect to DLR, WDW, and now Aulani. My educated guess is that WDW is modestly down, DLR is at or near capacity on higher prices, and Aulani may just be plodding along. Or Aulani could be doing gangbusters and WDW is noticably down. The only constant is Disneyland's blockbuster summer. Thank you Disney for your thorough guidance to concerned investors. Geez.

This excellent analysis bears repeating ... so I did.

And it speaks volumes and backs up much of what I have stated in the OP (and others have mentioned elsewhere).

I do get the feeling that the Studios project, whatever form it may eventually take, has gone ahead of Pandora in the 'What's New? What's Next? What Can We Get the Social Media Whores Talking 'Bout?' queue.

 

[WDW1974]

More thoughts. Cruise line bookings reported up 38% year over year and apparently this is included in the Q4 guidance of total bookings up 1%. If this is the case, Walt Disney World is officially in serious, serious trouble.

Are the burgers at Pecos Bill's $14 yet?

 

[jt04]

You are partly right, JT. (Should I crack a one-liner about being partially sane too? I'll let y'all decide!)

The economy IS a huge factor in WDW's dismal numbers (they really don't want you to know how bad they are hurting and it covers so many things from DDP to merchandise to resort occupancy) ... but it isn't globally that is affecting WDW so badly. South American visitors have been up ... way up. European visitors are basically flat, but that's better than being down. So, ask yourself who isn't coming to WDW as much (or at all) and spending far less?

Yeah, it's all those Heartland folks from Ohio to New Jersey, from Tennessee to Rhode Island.

And with gas and food prices on the rise, one might surmise that things will get worse.

naturally, TDO's response is cutbacks, which only discourages more people from visiting.

Can you provide something besides heresay that international visits are not down from last year? No, I did not think so. I already know the domestic economy is bad the proof is all around us.

And this is where the partial sanity comes in.

JT, WDI's employment and capabilities ebb and flow depending on projects and has since the 1960s WED days. If Disney needs more people, then it hires them and puts them to work whether in O-Town, Anaheim, Shanghai or Paris. If it need less, then it lets them go.

There is no pendulum swing here. There is desperation at TDO. Flat out desperation. They've been running the operation on total smoke, mirrors and marketing for years now. If you are saying that people in TDO have seen what quality product at DCA (or UNI, either coast) can do, then you are right. But any notion that Disney can't have massive projects going on simultaneously around the globe is absurd. They have always been able to. They've ignored WDW because they've felt they could (both in TDO and TDB).

But, hey, I can now book a room at the or the ASMu for $66 a night or a stay and dine package for as low as $94 a day per person for 3 days and 2 nights (based on four people, which still sounds absurdly high to me) ... look for more discounting this fall and winter.

I was refering to experience and know-how and work ethic more than shear numbers. And I have been saying for a couple years CarsLand would prove the viability of big projects just as Potter did. If anything TDO would be excited they can justify big budgets. Which is why it appears Staggs may have gotten the ball rolling on Pandora ahead of schedule.

 

[Tiggerblood]

I'm guessing you don't own any businesses.

I own 4 multi-million dollar companies. Call it what you will, but it happens, and it happens increasingly often. Especially in this economy.

If uni smells blood in the water, especially after hearing the earnings report today, I wouldn't be surprised to see something exactly like I'm suggesting.

There are a HUGE number of dissatisfied DVC owners right now that are wondering what's going to keep their interest in 40 more years of vacations to Orlando. Why not appeal directly to them?

I'm sure you don't either. Please name a company that does something that underhanded.

4 multi million dollar companies? Oh lord I don't know if I should laugh or cry. Do you see Hilton go after Hyatt Gold Passport members? Nope, do you see Hyatt go after Hilton Reward members? Nope, REAL multi million dollar businesses don't do that.

But I forgot you still think this report is bad...I can't argue with a person who thinks this report is bad when it shows growth and success in EVERY sector. Then again you also assume a couple people online means that all DVC members are dissatisfied which is wrong

 

[Tom]

I have spent this afternoon thinking about bringing RSR to DHS, and the more I thought about it, he more I disliked the idea. I would LOVE to ride it, but I really think each park should have more differentiating attractions. Even getting a Little Mermaid clone isnt very exciting to me. I've never been super interested in visiting DL, but with what they've been doing there, it's now on my radar and we might be going next year. Now if Carsland, or even just RSR came to DHS, well, I might not be so inclined to travel west.

I'm with you on this. Originally, when Cars Land opened, all I dreamed about was having one out here. But that's just like me jumping up and down and cheering when it rains for 10 minutes at my house....because we've gone for 3 months without a drop. The 10 minutes of rain is useless, but it's better compared to what I've become accustomed to.

I want Cars Land to stay in DLR. We are specifically planning our very first DLR trip for May BECAUSE of Cars Land. The place is finally a complete destination, and we're going to spend the big bucks to fly out and do it right. You NEVER would have caught me saying that before now.

And I don't want any more clones. I want NEW. I want UNIQUE. I want WDI to build a "reason to visit" every single time the put something in one of the US parks (I say US because I don't consider the overseas parks as something that MOST of us over here have in our sights - so it's only fair to put some Disney classics and dupes in those parks).

I would love for some Pixar originality in DHS. I would love for them to drop half a billion in Epcot by re-invigorating Future World and adding a WS pavilion...or adding a ride to an existing one. And I couldn't care less about Avatar. I want some love for Parks 2 & 3 before they pour any more money into 4.

 

[Tiggerblood]

It would be a business decision, nothing more or less, and a smart idea on Universal's part. No need to build their own vacation club hotels, and drawing even more business away from WDW than they already do.

Nope it would be an underhanded and shady move that no company would do. Drawing more business away from Disney? Do you realize that even if WDW took a 20% dip in attendance they would still be beating UNI and unlike Disney people who visit Universal almost universally also go to WDW

 

[Tiggerblood]

Disney posts positive growth, profits and growth in ALL sectors so that obviously means that WDW sucks and is about to close....there is point were your supposedly realistic approach makes you no longer realistic but delusional to the fact.

 

[WDW1974]

Spirit, this is interesting news, and I'll keep my fingers crossed that WDW management has woken up.

I understand the company politics over RCR, but what I'm a little confused about is WHY NOW?

It's been obvious for years that Universal is upping their game in Orlando, and WDW has been utterly complacent, indifferent, and out of touch.

I get that DCA is having a record year and the shiny new toy is attractive to TDO because it's gotten so much positive feedback. But wanting the newest E-ticket because it is driving record attendance is different from wanting the newest E-ticket because of fear that Universal is affecting WDW numbers.

So is TDO really worried or do they just feel neglected because DCA is getting the attention this summer and they realize the multi-year, piecemeal unveiling of FLE will prevent them from ever getting a big grand opening?

What I hope is not happening is TDO finally feels like they need to do something and seeing RCR as the easiest solution. Because if they're still looking for easy solutions, then I fully expect them to muck it up, somehow.

I can't pretend I know what goes on in the minds of WDW's Exec 'leadership team' that is largely called TDO. But I do know that people in that building have had a sky is falling mentality for the past 18 months or so and it just seems to get worse weekly. It's not so much that DCA has done great so far ... or even that UNI's numbers have gone through the roof since the Boy Who Lived did what a lot of UKers dream of and moved to Central Florida. It's that the numbers on the spreadsheets aren't adding up ... they are bad and keep looking worse no matter how many cutbacks and price increases and promotions Disney does.

There is a feeling by some (including the person who first clued me in that this was more than just 'what if talk') that the jig is up ... that Disney has been able to fool millions of people for a good decade-plus now, but that it is over. And the unending supply of first-timers just doesn't seem to be as deep a pool as the social media experts out handing free trips to Mommy Bloggers would have them and us believe.

There truly is a panic mentality in many offices and cubicles and corners of the World.

Take that and add it with concern in Burbank and Imagineers looking to stay employed in Glendale and you have the perfect storm to actually get something cool done. I think that's exactly what you'll be seeing.

 

[wm49rs]

Nope it would be an underhanded and shady move that no company would do. Drawing more business away from Disney? Do you realize that even if WDW took a 20% dip in attendance they would still be beating UNI and unlike Disney people who visit Universal almost universally also go to WDW

No such thing in business, no more so than say Disney buying rights to characters being used in Universal parks....

And were you aware that save for the increases at DCA and DL attendance would have been down at the North American parks? While Universal/IOA has seen growth across the board since WWoHP debuted?

 

[WDW1974]

I hope you can share more. Your post was perfectly timed and matched everything we saw today after the bell.

Timing is everything in life, ain't it?

 

[TalkingHead]

I'm sure you don't either. Please name a company that does something that underhanded.

Like when Disney rushed to open MGM ahead of Universal Studios?

Yeah, Disney is definitely beyond repute.

 

[jt04]

So ... you get that WDW is doing poorly ... Disney isn't expecting better things ... they finally realize that major additions are needed, but could be 3-4-5 years down the road ... and you cheer TDO?!?!

And you really think you have credibility here? ... At all?

They always knew they would have to return to WDW but Iger had way bigger fish to fry. And by the performance of the company it is obvious his strategy is working. They fixed the things that needed most fixing first. You don't spread your talent so thin that you lose effectiveness.

I also noticed they specifically mentioned investing in WDW's infrastructure which has been very expensive to fix. Again this was a setting of priorites. What good would it do to give in to your tantrums for blinky lights and new omnimovers if the sewers don't work and your transportation system is in trouble???

Now that he has saved the DLR, WDW's infrastructure, the networks, animation, merchandising etc, they can focus on giving you your play time. All your spirited carping did nothing to distract the sheriff from what he had to do.

To think otherwise is a bit kooky.

 

[WDW1974]

When they walk all the execs out of TDO, will they do a drive by past Celebration Place too?

Of course Twitter is lighting up about the NFE date that was announced after the dismal WDW attendance numbers. That was the plan though Im sure.

Yep.

Take something insignificant and shine the light like a laser-pointer with a kittie ... all the fanbois will be talking about is whether they'll get to see the land if they arrive at Port Orleans on November 29th.

Totally meaningless.

But better than having the Twits discussing WDW's problems and even the problems (TDA vs. TDO) inherent in the solution that the Orlando execs want to go with.

I wish fans were smarter. Hell, I just wish people were smarter. If everyone knew they were played so often by corporations, then they'd act and life would be better for us all ... but that is a general rant, not a Disney one.

 

[jt04]

Timing is everything in life, ain't it?

Less than a year ago you were burying Iger and now you want to be his personal valet. Excuse me, I need to puke my guts out.

 

[Tiggerblood]

No such thing in business, no more so than say Disney buying rights to characters being used in Universal parks....

And were you aware that save for the increases at DCA and DL attendance would have been down at the North American parks? While Universal/IOA has seen growth across the board since WWoHP debuted?

Buying a third party is not shady, actively going after your rivals preferred customers is shady and no one does that.

With Harry Potter IoA has finally got back to it's opening numbers and still has not overtakin the sinking DHS...

 

[Tiggerblood]

Like when Disney rushed to open MGM ahead of Universal Studios?

Yeah, Disney is definitely beyond repute.

How is that underhanded? Yeah I forgot it is not

 

[jt04]

Yep.

Take something insignificant and shine the light like a laser-pointer with a kittie ... all the fanbois will be talking about is whether they'll get to see the land if they arrive at Port Orleans on November 29th.

Totally meaningless.

But better than having the Twits discussing WDW's problems and even the problems (TDA vs. TDO) inherent in the solution that the Orlando execs want to go with.

I wish fans were smarter. Hell, I just wish people were smarter. If everyone knew they were played so often by corporations, then they'd act and life would be better for us all ... but that is a general rant, not a Disney one.

Nope.

 

[ChrisFL]

Yep.

Take something insignificant and shine the light like a laser-pointer with a kittie ... all the fanbois will be talking about is whether they'll get to see the land if they arrive at Port Orleans on November 29th.

hahahaha!!! perfect analogy

 

[Tiggerblood]

Less than a year ago you were burying Iger and now you want to be his personal valet. Excuse me, I need to puke my guts out.

But Iger has never done anything right I means look at The Avengers that was a bomb...but yeah the head of Comcast, you know the business with the worst customer service in the world, knows how to run a park and subsequent companies

 

[wm49rs]

Buying a third party is not shady, actively going after your rivals preferred customers is shady and no one does that.

With Harry Potter IoA has finally got back to it's opening numbers and still has not overtakin the sinking DHS...

Everyone does that, including Disney. It's called a rivalry for a reason. TWDC is not beneath similar tactics. And if I'm Universal and can draw some (literally) card-carrying DVC members to my parks for even one day, they're going to do it. And Disney would do the same....