Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[TP2000]

That is complete and utter hogwash and you know it. California's economy alone is the 5th largest in the WORLD, which ranks them above the vast majority of countries across the globe.

We aren't discussing California's GDP, we're discussing the overall health and growth rate, or lack thereof of California's economy. And the LA economy is notably weaker than the already weak California economy.

California currently has the second highest unemployment rate in the nation at 5.4%, with LA's unemployment rate even higher at 5.8%. And the office and retail vacancy rates in the city of Los Angeles, particularly on the normally affluent west side of town and around Holllywood, is way too high and rising higher. On top of that statistical problems, the city of LA is running a current budget deficit of $1 Billion and wants money from the state that has a state budget deficit of $68 Billion.

Downtown LA’s downturn: What’s behind the business exodus? | Press Play

Today, about one-third of office space in downtown LA sits empty. It’s a far cry from the once-booming real estate market in the city’s urban core. Why?

www.kcrw.com

In short, things are lousy in "Hollywood" right now. Which is why all of those media stories on the lousy LA economy have been written by various news outlets. But it's not discussing GDP.

I don’t get why Disney continue to be so tone deaf on so much outside of their own bubble. Everyone saw leading up to release how things were going to go and on a film that yet again, nobody asked for.

Because they really do live in a bubble. They think this type of product is what the audience wants for some bizarre reason. I used to know a few folks like that when I lived in SoCal, friends of friends really, and it was fascinating how out of touch they could be with middle America. They truly just don't get it, and no one they know ever tells them they're wrong.

 

[TP2000]

A lot of confusion here because there are three different things being cited, not two.

296.4 million was the total the UK production had rang up by the end of 2023. That number ultimately does not have the credit or overhead removed and the movie wasn’t even done yet.

270M is the figure from Deadline that has the tax credit and overhead/interest removed from it. Typically 99% of movies we google or find on the numbers are reported this way. You can assume they actually spent another 100M dollars from the 2023 figure based on that.

Brook Barnes just posted a number that seems to be a weird amalgamation of 270 (tax credit and interest/overhead removed) + 80 million marketing. Seems too low to me. Hence ‘at least’

Final all in costs will be, as I’ve said, likely more towards 450 million. Production 375 (~325 + interest and overhead ~50) + marketing (surely more than 80, more like 100-125) - tax credit (~50M) + residuals and distribution (~25).

All the figures above are various shades of correct, but entirely different contexts.

Great clarification and background, thank you!

In this thread the past week or so I've been using the assumption that Snow White had a production budget of $250 Million and a marketing budget of $100 Million. The production budget of $250 was an obvious lowball in my mind, but until we get the next update from the British tax authorities I thought it was best to really lowball it just to prevent people from freaking out over yet another thing.

But if I'm reading that info above right, it looks like your math shows it heading to a after tax credit total of $325 Million production and $100 Million marketing? After the yearlong delay and obvious CGI work, I think that seems about right.

What a mess Burbank made for itself on this one! I wonder if, in hindsight, they think they should have just buried it on a Disney+ release and forgotten all about it.

 

[BrianLo]

In this thread the past week or so I've been using the assumption that Snow White had a production budget of $250 Million and a marketing budget of $100 Million. The production budget of $250 was an obvious lowball in my mind, but until we get the next update from the British tax authorities I thought it was best to really lowball it just to prevent people from freaking out over yet another thing.

But if I'm reading that info above right, it looks like your math shows it heading to a after tax credit total of $325 Million production and $100 Million marketing? After the yearlong delay and obvious CGI work, I think that seems about right.

Sorry an after tax credit of 270. There's interest and overhead also baked into those UK figures as well and they are weirdly reported and we never include those in any other movie we typically talk about.

I certainly think you should be using 270 now, not 250. Deadline reported 270 most recently.

 

[LittleBuford]

Why isn’t anyone seeing the movie?

This got me thinking. If, as has been claimed, Zegler’s comments are keeping half the country away, why is the other half not showing up either?

 

[Minnesota disney fan]

Has anyone on here heard that Disney is going to pull the movie out of the theaters????
My husband commented to hearing that on the internet.
Of course, we all know that we can believe everything we read on the net, lol.

 

[Tha Realest]

A few questions for those saying they refuse to see a film starring someone who’s expressed ideological disdain for them: Do you plan to extend this principle to future Avatar instalments in light of James Cameron’s similarly strong views in this regard? If not, can you explain why you would take a different approach in his case?

I can’t recall any other film that people claimed to be boycotting based on the political views of one of its lead actors. Perhaps there are examples out there that I’m overlooking, but I’m genuinely at a loss to think of one.

I have no problem seeing a film with an actor I believe doesn’t care for me or some of my beliefs if the film looks otherwise appealing to me.

And please - let’s not act as if Zegler is in any way as good at what she does as Cameron is at directing, or has the same marketing cache or body of work. This is a silly comparison

 

[Casper Gutman]

This got me thinking. If, as has been claimed, Zegler’s comments are keeping half the country away, why is the other half not showing up either?

Because it looks really bad in commercials and the IP has a minuscule following.

On a side note, everything about the movie looks so fake. We need to go back to practical sets and effects or at least give CGI teams the time to do their jobs properly.

 

[Agent H]

I have no problem seeing a film with an actor I believe doesn’t care for me or some of my beliefs if the film looks otherwise appealing to me.

And please - let’s not act as if Zegler is in any way as good at what she does as Cameron is at directing, or has the same marketing cache or body of work. This is a silly comparison

Other than titanic what has James Cameron done that’s so great? Based on the trailers I’ve seen zeglar seems like the best part.

 

[Agent H]

Has anyone on here heard that Disney is going to pull the movie out of the theaters????
My husband commented to hearing that on the internet.
Of course, we all know that we can believe everything we read on the net, lol.

Uh….. no.

 

[Casper Gutman]

Are the populists in this thread who were very upset about Zegler putting all the below-the-line craftspeople out of work with poorly thought out social media posts at all worried about the effect that direct government repression will actually have on rank-and-file film and television workers?

 

[LittleBuford]

On a side note, everything about the movie looks so fake. We need to go back to practical sets and effects or at least give CGI teams the time to do their jobs properly.

I quite liked the CGI animals, I have to say. In general, other than the dwarfs, I didn't find the effects bad.

 

[Casper Gutman]

Other than titanic what has James Cameron done that’s so great? Based on the trailers I’ve seen zeglar seems like the best part.

OK… T2 and Aliens are two of the five or so best action films ever made. Pure masterpieces. True Lies is tons of fun.

I actually dislike Titanic and loathe Avatar but Cameron is still one of the best pop film directors of all time.

 

[Casper Gutman]

I quite liked the CGI animals, I have to say. In general, other than the dwarfs, I didn't find the effects bad.

I’m just going by commercials, but everything seems to have the fake, otherworldly feel that plagues modern blockbusters. It’s not a problem unique to Snow, but the ads make it look even more overpowering then usual.

If we’re going to have live-action remakes, let’s have them be live-action.

 

[LittleBuford]

And please - let’s not act as if Zegler is in any way as good at what she does as Cameron is at directing, or has the same marketing cache or body of work. This is a silly comparison

I wasn't comparing their levels of talent or achievement. Why are you suggesting I was?

People aren't saying, "I'm refusing to give my money to an actress who hates me—but if she were better at what she did, I might reconsider." The criterion they're invoking is solely political, and that's the basis of my comparison and of my question.

 

[LittleBuford]

I’m just going by commercials, but everything seems to have the fake, otherworldly feel that plagues modern blockbusters. It’s not a problem unique to Snow, but the ads make it look even more overpowering then usual.

If we’re going to have live-action remakes, let’s have them be live-action.

I personally don't mind the fakery, but I understand your point.

 

[BrianLo]

I see some heads are exploding that they are adding a Wish float to Starlight. But it is what we've long been saying. Box office is never the entire final straw with this company. Yes sometimes it's really, really bad like Strange World or this version of Snow White... but usually the company has a habit of watering the in between things in a way that few other studios do.

It's why Sleeping Beauty still has a castle.

 

[LittleBuford]

Other than titanic what has James Cameron done that’s so great? Based on the trailers I’ve seen zeglar seems like the best part.

To be clear, my comparison was not about their professional talents. There was nothing in my post that suggested it was.

 

[LittleBuford]

I see some heads are exploding that they are adding a Wish float to Starlight. But it is what we've long been saying. Box office is never the entire final straw with this company. Yes sometimes it's really, really bad like Strange World or this version of Snow White... but usually the company has a habit of watering the in between things in a way that few other studios do.

It's why Sleeping Beauty still has a castle.

That give me some hope that "This Wish" may end up being played in the parks. It's a lovely song.

 

[BrianLo]

That give me some hope that "This Wish" may end up being played in the parks. It's a lovely song.

I'd assume so. Entertainment always seems to be able to paint with a broader palate. Not to diss Hercules, but they are absolutely disproportionately obsessed with I can go the distance. So we never know where these things sneak back in a decade or two later.

 

[LittleBuford]

I'd assume so. Entertainment always seems to be able to paint with a broader palate. Not to diss Hercules, but they are absolutely disproportionately obsessed with I can go the distance. So we never know where these things sneak back in a decade or two later.

Right, that’s it—I’m blocking you! “Go the Distance” absolutely deserves the airtime it gets! The entire Hercules soundtrack is awesome (except, perhaps, Phil’s song).