Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[BrianLo]

NYT piece on WB and Zaslav mentions Snow White production/marketing cost was “at least $350 million.”

I agree, which is why for better or worse you just have to take what the recognized trades say is the budget which is $269.4M.

* By the end of 2023.

Or are you of the belief another year of production (reshoots, SFX) was relatively minimal?

A lot of confusion here because there are three different things being cited, not two.

296.4 million was the total the UK production had rang up by the end of 2023. That number ultimately does not have the credit or overhead removed and the movie wasn’t even done yet.

270M is the figure from Deadline that has the tax credit and overhead/interest removed from it. Typically 99% of movies we google or find on the numbers are reported this way. You can assume they actually spent another 100M dollars from the 2023 figure based on that.

Brook Barnes just posted a number that seems to be a weird amalgamation of 270 (tax credit and interest/overhead removed) + 80 million marketing. Seems too low to me. Hence ‘at least’

Final all in costs will be, as I’ve said, likely more towards 450 million. Production 375 (~325 + interest and overhead ~50) + marketing (surely more than 80, more like 100-125) - tax credit (~50M) + residuals and distribution (~25).

All the figures above are various shades of correct, but entirely different contexts.

 

[LittleBuford]

A few questions for those saying they refuse to see a film starring someone who’s expressed ideological disdain for them: Do you plan to extend this principle to future Avatar instalments in light of James Cameron’s similarly strong views in this regard? If not, can you explain why you would take a different approach in his case?

I can’t recall any other film that people claimed to be boycotting based on the political views of one of its lead actors. Perhaps there are examples out there that I’m overlooking, but I’m genuinely at a loss to think of one.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

I personally think it would have done pretty well had it been released before 2020. It’s not a bad film in the larger context of the remakes.

I agree the movie had potential… bad timing, bad script, bad casting, bad marketing, too soon, etc we can argue til the end of time but I don’t buy the argument people don’t care about Snow White anymore, Once Upon a Time largely revolved around Snow and was an insanely popular TV show less than a decade ago, Snow White and the Huntsman made $400 million in 2012 ($550 million inflation adjusted)… the source material is still relevant, for whatever reason this version just missed.

 

[BrianLo]

Not to pick a fight and be obstinate, Cap 4 is absolutely limping, but probably has a negligible loss at the end of the day. If Deadline is to be believed it’s currently kind of under a 10-15 million loss, as of now.

I don’t want to call it break even because there’s too much ideology here for that. But that seems about where it’s landing from the data I can gather.

 

[LittleBuford]

I agree the movie had potential… bad timing, bad script, bad casting, bad marketing, too soon, etc we can argue til the end of time but I don’t buy the argument people don’t care about Snow White anymore, Once Upon a Time largely revolved around Snow and was an insanely popular TV show less than a decade ago, Snow White and the Huntsman made $400 million in 2012 ($550 million inflation adjusted)… the source material is still relevant, for whatever reason this version just missed.

I actually mean the movie as it currently stands would have done OK, perhaps even well, had it been released before 2020. The box office has thrown up many weird surprises in the past half-decade; in the more predictable pre-pandemic age, I really think Snow White in its current form would have been much more favourably received by the public.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

Not to pick a fight and be obstinate, Cap 4 is absolutely limping, but probably has a negligible loss at the end of the day. If Deadline is to be believed it’s currently kind of under a 10-15 million loss, as of now.

I don’t want to call it break even because there’s too much ideology here for that. But that seems about where it’s landing from the data I can gather.

Close enough, a couple million one way or the other isn’t going to make or break Disney, $100 million or more matters though, even for a company the size of Disney.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

I actually mean the movie as it currently stands would have done OK, perhaps even well, had it been released before 2020. The box office has thrown up many weird surprises in the past half-decade; in the more predictable pre-pandemic age, I really think Snow White in its current form would have been much more favourably received by the public.

Maybe, being made in a time of smaller budgets, better box office results, and less divisiveness definitely wouldn’t have hurt, I still think a Snow White movie, without the outside noise, would have fallen in line with similar remakes (Cinderella), even in 2025. Unfortunately well never known beyond pure speculation.

 

[BrianLo]

Close enough, a couple million one way or the other isn’t going to make or break Disney, $100 million or more matters though, even for a company the size of Disney.

Yup! Snow on the other hand is a big ol’ flop. One of those aforementioned 9 figure losers.

 

[TP2000]

That is complete and utter hogwash and you know it. California's economy alone is the 5th largest in the WORLD, which ranks them above the vast majority of countries across the globe.

We aren't discussing California's GDP, we're discussing the overall health and growth rate, or lack thereof of California's economy. And the LA economy is notably weaker than the already weak California economy.

California currently has the second highest unemployment rate in the nation at 5.4%, with LA's unemployment rate even higher at 5.8%. And the office and retail vacancy rates in the city of Los Angeles, particularly on the normally affluent west side of town and around Holllywood, is way too high and rising higher. On top of that statistical problems, the city of LA is running a current budget deficit of $1 Billion and wants money from the state that has a state budget deficit of $68 Billion.

Downtown LA’s downturn: What’s behind the business exodus? | Press Play

Today, about one-third of office space in downtown LA sits empty. It’s a far cry from the once-booming real estate market in the city’s urban core. Why?

www.kcrw.com

In short, things are lousy in "Hollywood" right now. Which is why all of those media stories on the lousy LA economy have been written by various news outlets. But it's not discussing GDP.

I don’t get why Disney continue to be so tone deaf on so much outside of their own bubble. Everyone saw leading up to release how things were going to go and on a film that yet again, nobody asked for.

Because they really do live in a bubble. They think this type of product is what the audience wants for some bizarre reason. I used to know a few folks like that when I lived in SoCal, friends of friends really, and it was fascinating how out of touch they could be with middle America. They truly just don't get it, and no one they know ever tells them they're wrong.

 

[TP2000]

A lot of confusion here because there are three different things being cited, not two.

296.4 million was the total the UK production had rang up by the end of 2023. That number ultimately does not have the credit or overhead removed and the movie wasn’t even done yet.

270M is the figure from Deadline that has the tax credit and overhead/interest removed from it. Typically 99% of movies we google or find on the numbers are reported this way. You can assume they actually spent another 100M dollars from the 2023 figure based on that.

Brook Barnes just posted a number that seems to be a weird amalgamation of 270 (tax credit and interest/overhead removed) + 80 million marketing. Seems too low to me. Hence ‘at least’

Final all in costs will be, as I’ve said, likely more towards 450 million. Production 375 (~325 + interest and overhead ~50) + marketing (surely more than 80, more like 100-125) - tax credit (~50M) + residuals and distribution (~25).

All the figures above are various shades of correct, but entirely different contexts.

Great clarification and background, thank you!

In this thread the past week or so I've been using the assumption that Snow White had a production budget of $250 Million and a marketing budget of $100 Million. The production budget of $250 was an obvious lowball in my mind, but until we get the next update from the British tax authorities I thought it was best to really lowball it just to prevent people from freaking out over yet another thing.

But if I'm reading that info above right, it looks like your math shows it heading to a after tax credit total of $325 Million production and $100 Million marketing? After the yearlong delay and obvious CGI work, I think that seems about right.

What a mess Burbank made for itself on this one! I wonder if, in hindsight, they think they should have just buried it on a Disney+ release and forgotten all about it.

 

[BrianLo]

In this thread the past week or so I've been using the assumption that Snow White had a production budget of $250 Million and a marketing budget of $100 Million. The production budget of $250 was an obvious lowball in my mind, but until we get the next update from the British tax authorities I thought it was best to really lowball it just to prevent people from freaking out over yet another thing.

But if I'm reading that info above right, it looks like your math shows it heading to a after tax credit total of $325 Million production and $100 Million marketing? After the yearlong delay and obvious CGI work, I think that seems about right.

Sorry an after tax credit of 270. There's interest and overhead also baked into those UK figures as well and they are weirdly reported and we never include those in any other movie we typically talk about.

I certainly think you should be using 270 now, not 250. Deadline reported 270 most recently.

 

[LittleBuford]

Why isn’t anyone seeing the movie?

This got me thinking. If, as has been claimed, Zegler’s comments are keeping half the country away, why is the other half not showing up either?

 

[Minnesota disney fan]

Has anyone on here heard that Disney is going to pull the movie out of the theaters????
My husband commented to hearing that on the internet.
Of course, we all know that we can believe everything we read on the net, lol.

 

[Tha Realest]

A few questions for those saying they refuse to see a film starring someone who’s expressed ideological disdain for them: Do you plan to extend this principle to future Avatar instalments in light of James Cameron’s similarly strong views in this regard? If not, can you explain why you would take a different approach in his case?

I can’t recall any other film that people claimed to be boycotting based on the political views of one of its lead actors. Perhaps there are examples out there that I’m overlooking, but I’m genuinely at a loss to think of one.

I have no problem seeing a film with an actor I believe doesn’t care for me or some of my beliefs if the film looks otherwise appealing to me.

And please - let’s not act as if Zegler is in any way as good at what she does as Cameron is at directing, or has the same marketing cache or body of work. This is a silly comparison

 

[Casper Gutman]

This got me thinking. If, as has been claimed, Zegler’s comments are keeping half the country away, why is the other half not showing up either?

Because it looks really bad in commercials and the IP has a minuscule following.

On a side note, everything about the movie looks so fake. We need to go back to practical sets and effects or at least give CGI teams the time to do their jobs properly.

 

[Agent H]

I have no problem seeing a film with an actor I believe doesn’t care for me or some of my beliefs if the film looks otherwise appealing to me.

And please - let’s not act as if Zegler is in any way as good at what she does as Cameron is at directing, or has the same marketing cache or body of work. This is a silly comparison

Other than titanic what has James Cameron done that’s so great? Based on the trailers I’ve seen zeglar seems like the best part.

 

[Agent H]

Has anyone on here heard that Disney is going to pull the movie out of the theaters????
My husband commented to hearing that on the internet.
Of course, we all know that we can believe everything we read on the net, lol.

Uh….. no.

 

[Casper Gutman]

Are the populists in this thread who were very upset about Zegler putting all the below-the-line craftspeople out of work with poorly thought out social media posts at all worried about the effect that direct government repression will actually have on rank-and-file film and television workers?

 

[LittleBuford]

On a side note, everything about the movie looks so fake. We need to go back to practical sets and effects or at least give CGI teams the time to do their jobs properly.

I quite liked the CGI animals, I have to say. In general, other than the dwarfs, I didn't find the effects bad.

 

[Casper Gutman]

Other than titanic what has James Cameron done that’s so great? Based on the trailers I’ve seen zeglar seems like the best part.

OK… T2 and Aliens are two of the five or so best action films ever made. Pure masterpieces. True Lies is tons of fun.

I actually dislike Titanic and loathe Avatar but Cameron is still one of the best pop film directors of all time.