Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[BrianLo]

Box office has often benefitted from recessions. So this is all a bit irrelevant.

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

Gas prices are not a reliable indicator. And the lowest gas prices have been in modern history was during the pandemic, when the economy was hardly booming.

Yeah, gas prices are typically high when demand for travel is high. Prices often spike on holiday weekends.

But hey, people are going to cherry pick certain stats to try and prove a point.

No mention of course of tax hikes in the form of tariffs. When that results in less discretionary income, people may spend less on luxuries.

Overall, I still think movie tickets are one the cheapest forms of entertainment out there. If I were struggling financially I feel that big ticket items like vacations would be more impacted.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

You can say that while at the same time by the end of this year Disney could have the only 5 films that earn over $1B in the last two years (avatar 3 would be 5 in two years for Disney)

Of the 10 $Billion films post reopening of theaters, Disney directly produced/distributed 5 of them, and has some production with 1 of them (Spider-Man).

So yes, not all of their films are hitting and those can be the sole focus, while at the same time they’ve found their own successes as well.

This is why I’m optimistic for the future, they are currently a better distributor than producer, 2 of those 5 films are Avatar films controlled by Cameron, 2 were produced by Pixar (essentially Disney), and only 1 by Disney itself… they have a great catalog of IP to choose from… they just need to find the right creative people to produce them and then let them be creative on their terms and timeline.

I’ve mentioned this before but Disney currently feels like a company dictated by a release schedule rather than by the final quality of the actual films, if the scripts aren’t ready they’d be better off waiting and releasing nothing rather than releasing mediocre films because they fit the pre-established release schedule.

Cameron will take years to release the quality he wants, I think if Disney were in control of Avatar we’d end up with the first mediocre cut simply because it fits managements schedule.

 

[Minnesota disney fan]

Hi gang, here's the latest on The Fantastic Four. No surprise, the box office chart below shows it has weak legs.

Nephews and their lovely wives are here for the week, and the big news is that Nephew #1 and his wife are now expecting their first child! I likely won't make it 21 years to teach that kid how to make a proper cocktail, but you can darn well bet I'm going to be there to take him or her to Disneyland for the first time! The nephews have always been very competitive, so Nephew #2 and his wife are now scheming on conceiving.

Pop Culture Temperature Check for Summer of '25: None of the family have any interest in seeing The Fantastic Four or any other movie out currently, and none of them want to go to Disneyland. The robot Walt didn't do it for them. Their summer activities are all about hipster restaurant reservations, family tennis death tournaments, and beach time, with spa sessions and lots of shopping for the girls.. There's no Barbie this summer for me to take them to!

With a $225 Million production budget, this is definitely an Oof.

View attachment 875721

Congratulations on Nephew #1's good news A new baby is always exciting It sounds like you had a wonderful time with the family

 

[Disney Irish]

Pricing and economics. Everyone forgets how aghast we were at Iger, a man who has no fear of consumer pricing, launching D+ to 6.99/month. Instantaneously they devalued their back catalogue to historic levels.

The streaming frontier has massively devalued content and it is still a slow road to recovery. I calculated and I am still all in less in raw dollars today than I was for some bills I looked up in 2012. It was 135CAD for internet and cable (no sports, fairly basic, but we had HBO for GoT). Today I’m about 120 and have unlimited fibre, 4k Netflix, Ad Free Disney+/Star (Hulu), Apple TV+, Crunchyroll and Prime. Let alone inflation.

HBO was 15USD 20 years ago. The streaming economics moving forward will all be price increases and that will slowly make theatrical seem less outright egregious. I don’t think theatrical is going completely extinct. Radio didn’t go extinct. There will be a contraction, consolidation and adjustment. Especially if other studios go under and Netflix continues to ignore it.

Edit - and I should mention my 135$ was after the classic retention call bringing it down from 215.

Price increases will certainly make streaming more on-par long term with movie tickets. However I still think it'll end up being cheaper for a family to watch at home in the long run then it will be to continue to go to the movies. When you can still watch a movie on PVOD at home for less than the cost of one ticket, the economics for a family of 4 is easy. They can watch 4-6 movies at home for the price of one family outing to the theater.

I've long said I thought that theatrical would become more of a niche offering in the long term, and I still believe that.

Also radio didn't go extinct but it no longer is the main form of entertainment. It was propped up by the car culture. But even that is starting to go. We'll see a bunch of the public radio stations close here in the US shortly due to the defunding of public broadcasting. As well as a few other for-profit radio stations closing in recent years due to economics.

 

[BrianLo]

However I still think it'll end up being cheaper for a family to watch at home in the long run then it will be to continue to go to the movies.

Hasn’t this been true since the 90s?

I’m still not convinced theatrical is on its inevitable slow death spiral. As long as the major studios preserve the exclusivity window, that’s the justification for its existence.

 

[Disney Irish]

Hasn’t this been true since the 90s?

Not really, as least not here in the US. At a certain point in the mid-2010s it became cheaper. But going to the movies was still a cheap form of entertainment for under $100 for a family of 4 in most cases up until then. Now you can't even touch that unless you go on a budget days and don't spend on concessions.

I’m still not convinced theatrical is on its inevitable slow death spiral.

I mean when now more than 50% of theater owners polled think its happening sometime in the next 20 years, I tend to listen. But that is just me.

Maybe things will recover, maybe it won't. But to me theatricals best days are behind it, not in front of it.

 

[BrianLo]

Not really, as least not here in the US. At a certain point in the mid-2010s it became cheaper. But going to the movies was still a cheap form of entertainment for under $100 for a family of 4 in most cases up until then. Now you can't even touch that unless you go on a budget days and don't spend on concessions.

What are you talking about? Have you completely forgotten about video rental stores?

Video rentals were infinitely cheaper for our family of six than going to the theatre. A very rare and very special occasion. Going to blockbuster was a regular Friday.

 

[JackCH]

Not really, as least not here in the US. At a certain point in the mid-2010s it became cheaper. But going to the movies was still a cheap form of entertainment for under $100 for a family of 4 in most cases up until then. Now you can't even touch that unless you go on a budget days and don't spend on concessions.


I mean when now more than 50% of theater owners polled think its happening sometime in the next 20 years, I tend to listen. But that is just me.

Maybe things will recover, maybe it won't. But to me theatricals best days are behind it, not in front of it.

Went into and read that Variety article, not sure it should be given an extreme amount of weight. It is a somewhat ambiguous question and even within the article it mentions that some of those execs believe it could adapt and survive in some form, which is what I personally think will happen. It will evolve and adapt but not completely go away.

 

[Disney Irish]

What are you talking about? Have you completely forgotten about video rental stores?

Video rentals were infinitely cheaper for our family of six than going to the theatre. A very rare and very special occasion. Going to blockbuster was a regular Friday.

Funny since Blockbuster ceased operations in 2014 and had been slowly being phased out starting in 2011 after they went bankrupt in 2010.

 

[Disney Irish]

Went into and read that Variety article, not sure it should be given an extreme amount of weight. It is a somewhat ambiguous question and even within the article it mentions that some of those execs believe it could adapt and survive in some form, which is what I personally think will happen. It will evolve and adapt but not completely go away.

Which is why I go back to what I said -

I've long said I thought that theatrical would become more of a niche offering in the long term, and I still believe that.

Do I think theatrical will still be around in 25 years in some form, yes. But will it be the main driver of a studios profit motive for movies at that point, no. The long term economics just don't look to be there. And that is the point.

 

[BrianLo]

Maybe things will recover, maybe it won't. But to me theatricals best days are behind it, not in front of it.

We need to parse out its best days are behind it and that it’s no longer a major growth industry (absolutely) and it will become irrelevant and niche in a short time interval. Those are very different statements.

Funny since Blockbuster ceased operations in 2014 and had been slowly being phased out starting in 2011 after they went bankrupt in 2010.

You can define short how you wish, but as you mentioned streaming killed video rentals within a matter of years. We are many years into this cycle now and theatrical somehow managed to grow in the 2010s.

It tried briefly in the pandemic and unsuccessfully walked back taking on theatrical wholesale. The home market has been challenging theatrical for 40 years now. That was my point that you are trying to really not speak to. Something else disruptive needs to occur, because the home market and theatrical have coexisted for ages. They are not equivalent experiences.

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

Hasn’t this been true since the 90s?

I’m still not convinced theatrical is on its inevitable slow death spiral. As long as the major studios preserve the exclusivity window, that’s the justification for its existence.

We need to parse out its best days are behind it and that it’s no longer a major growth industry (absolutely) and it will become irrelevant and niche in a short time interval. Those are very different statements.

You can define short how you wish, but as you mentioned streaming killed video rentals within a matter of years. We are many years into this cycle now and theatrical somehow managed to grow in the 2010s.

It tried briefly in the pandemic and unsuccessfully walked back taking on theatrical wholesale. The home market has been challenging theatrical for 40 years now. That was my point that you are trying to really not speak to. Something else disruptive needs to occur, because the home market and theatrical have coexisted for ages. They are not equivalent experiences.

Yep, the theater experience is unique and will likely not be completely supplanted by home video.

It will likely continue a downward trend for several reasons.

A big piece for me is that the home video experience is very good. In the olden days, if you didn't see a movie in the theater you were stuck watching on your 32" CRT television on a VHS tape which cuts out half the picture.

Today, a lower end 65" TV can be found for under $1,000. 4K OLED TVs are within reach for many (most?) consumers. The home viewing experience is good. There just isn't the same necessity to see movies in the theater.

Then you factor in 30 minutes of commercials, disruptive audiences, hassle, and expense.

 

[Disney Irish]

We need to parse out its best days are behind it and that it’s no longer a major growth industry (absolutely) and it will become irrelevant and niche in a short time interval. Those are very different statements.

Except I don't think they are different statements. Because one can be part of the other. This conversations has been had many times over the years. Theatrical has been on a downward trajectory for years now since its height in 2002, long before the pandemic, due to less ticket sales every year. It was just that box office successes were masking that for the most part until the pandemic hit. And as the pandemic hit it became obvious that theatrical could no longer sustain its growth and started to contract as more and more people started to be comfortable with staying home and waiting. And its just gotten worse as time went along.

Also I'm not talking about 1-5 years here. I'm talking in 15-20 years. So in the short term I think some years will be better than others, but overall I think the downward trend will continue.

You can define short how you wish, but as you mentioned streaming killed video rentals within a matter of years. We are many years into this cycle now and theatrical somehow managed to grow in the 2010s.

It tried briefly in the pandemic and unsuccessfully walked back taking on theatrical wholesale. The home market has been challenging theatrical for 40 years now. That was my point that you are trying to really not speak to. Something else disruptive needs to occur, because the home market and theatrical have coexisted for ages. They are not equivalent experiences.

The difference with the last 40 years and now was that people were still heading out to the movies as their main form of entertainment. Theatrical was still seen as the superior experience to the home viewing, because it was. You can still see that sentiment here with a few posters. But the pandemic really changed how people viewed their home entertainment. People invested in major home theater systems since people were stuck at home. And now many people see the home experience in many ways being superior for a variety of factors.

So yes prior to the pandemic they coexisted. And in the short term they will still continue to coexist. But for how much longer, that is the question.

So the catalyst that you're looking for to cause this disruption I believe has already happened. Its just not going to be the immediate overnight change that I believe you're thinking.

 

[coffeefan]

Perhaps Disney is testing longer theatrical and VOD windows for MCU films.
For comparison, Avatar 2 had a gap of 173 days.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

Hasn’t this been true since the 90s?

I’m still not convinced theatrical is on its inevitable slow death spiral. As long as the major studios preserve the exclusivity window, that’s the justification for its existence.

I think it’s been true since the 1920s. I’ve read articles about theaters fearing how public radio would affect them, even greater fears in the 1950s over TV, fears again with the rise of cable with dozens of channels, more fears over VHS… now it’s fears over streaming.

It’s kind of shocking how well the theaters have actually survived a century of technological progress.

I think they probably peaked a decade ago but I think they’ll still be around in some form decades from now.

 

[BrianLo]

So the catalyst that you're looking for to cause this disruption I believe has already happened. It’s just not going to be the immediate overnight change that I believe you're thinking.

I guess my qualm is - is theatrical the new brick and mortar video rental store in 15-20 years? Or does it still push out the occasional 1B breakthrough tentpole.

There’s a wide gap there in those outcomes.

 

[TP2000]

Congratulations on Nephew #1's good news A new baby is always exciting It sounds like you had a wonderful time with the family

Thank you! My dedicated job as great uncle will be to make that child a Disneyland fan by the time he's 6. I'd also be thrilled to sit and watch Cars for the first time with him if it's a boy, or Frozen if it's a girl. We'll know which later this fall. But I'm going to get 'em hooked on classic Disney young!

The kids are all still here through the weekend, then it's just my sister and her husband for the next week. We can then play tennis (slowly and badly) and forget about that pickleball craze the young'uns are so fascinated with.

 

[Disney Irish]

I guess my qualm is - is theatrical the new brick and mortar video rental store in 15-20 years? Or does it still push out the occasional 1B breakthrough tentpole.

There’s a wide gap there in those outcomes.

I guess that is the ultimate question that we will get the answer to in time.

And maybe it'll be a self fulfilling prophecy that studios made for themselves. But eventually I think it'll happen.

Heck maybe we get an Oasis type device and that takes over as the main form of entertainment.

 

[JackCH]

Which is why I go back to what I said -
Do I think theatrical will still be around in 25 years in some form, yes. But will it be the main driver of a studios profit motive for movies at that point, no. The long term economics just don't look to be there. And that is the point.

I guess I'm having a hard time pinpointing what your actual prediction is. As elsewhere you have said:

So for this isn't not an "if" its more of a "when" type of situation. Will it be, 10, 15, 20, 50 years down the line, who knows but I can almost with 99% certainty guarantee theatrical will go away eventually. The technologist in me knows it'll happen. And so far with these type of predictions I've been batting almost 1000.

Sure anything "can" happen. And I'm not saying that theatrical will go away next year, but in the next 15-20 yeah I can see it.

Which, to me, implies you think it pretty much all shuts down completely. I suppose it depends on what you mean by "niche" market.