Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

brideck

Well-Known Member
I can't get over how good Cynthia Erivo's rendition of "The Wizard and I" is!



Haven't seen Wicked yet, but she is such a good singer. The first thing I remember seeing her in was Bad Times at the El Royale, which isn't a musical, but she plays a singer in that and really belts it.

... And I just learned that she has a Tony for The Color Purple -- makes total sense.
 

LittleBuford

Well-Known Member
Haven't seen Wicked yet, but she is such a good singer. The first thing I remember seeing her in was Bad Times at the El Royale, which isn't a musical, but she plays a singer in that and really belts it.

... And I just learned that she has a Tony for The Color Purple -- makes total sense.
I hadn't heard her sing before Wicked, and her performance just blew me away. I will definitely check out her other work in the weeks ahead.
 

Disney Analyst

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
FRIDAY UPDATE: Disney’s Moana 2 grossed a massive $28M on Thanksgiving Day, which is the most any movie has ever made on the foodie holiday; the sequel towering over previous champ Frozen 2 ($14.9M).

Moana 2 isn’t soaking up all the water: Universal’s Wicked scored the second-best Thanksgiving Day take ever for a movie at $16.9M. Uni has upped its forecast for the movie to $105.6M over 5-days, which will ultimately be the 4th highest 5-day haul ever for a movie over Thanksgiving after Moana 2, Frozen 2 ($125M) and Hunger Games: Catching Fire ($109.9M). That’s nothing to complain about.


Disney is maintaining their $175M+ forecast over 5-days for the film, even though others see this sequel well past $200M. Today’s business will determine how much to the heavens this Dwyane Johnson-Auli’i Cravalho movie goes. On a 3-day basis, Moana 2 is expected to be Johnson’s second highest opening of all-time, behind Furious 7‘s $147.1M. As we already reported, Johnson is a box office anomaly: He’s the only Hollywood star to open two No. 1 films in the same month, the other being Amazon MGM Studio’s Red One. Two-day take on Moana 2 stands at $85.5M, while global is just under $110M. Among all Thursdays, Moana 2 is the 8th biggest.


 

BrianLo

Well-Known Member
A rising tide raises all ships! Moana and Wicked are absolutely killing in.

Wish I could remember who or when we had the conversation that I thought Moana had become just as if not bigger than Frozen recently… based on how much it’s blowing frozen 2 out of the water, I stand by that conviction.
 

Disney Analyst

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
SATURDAY AM: Another day, another day of box office records being broken. The richest Black Friday ever at the box office with an estimated $108M had Disney’s Moana 2 also turning in a record Black Friday haul of $54.5M. Disney is now taking their five-day estimate for Moana 2 up to $215M-$220M, which is where rivals saw it all along. However, Disney played wise: Rather than project over their skis, they kept it conservative. Thanksgiving projections always turn on their axis both on Black Friday and Saturday, either up or down, from wherever forecasts were on Wednesday. Three-day is $140M now, which is the second best debut for Dwayne Johnson after Furious 7‘s $147.1M.

At $215M-$220M, not only is that a Thanksgiving five-day record for any title, opening or holdover, but it’s also the biggest five-day opening of all time, squashing Illumination/Universal’s Super Mario Bros Movie ($204.6M).

Those assuming that Moana 2 would cut into Wicked‘s business due to the latter’s two hour-40 minute runtime, well, you are wrong. So, wrong, wrong, wrong. At $118M over five days, the Universal feature take of the Broadway musical is posting the third best five-day haul for a movie over Thanksgiving, behind Moana 2 and Frozen 2 ($125M). In addition with $32M yesterday, Wicked owns the third best Black Friday box office for any title, behind Moana 2 and Frozen 2 ($34.1M). Popular, indeed. Tattoo it on your body, studio executives: Musicals aren’t dead.

 

LittleBuford

Well-Known Member
SATURDAY AM: Another day, another day of box office records being broken. The richest Black Friday ever at the box office with an estimated $108M had Disney’s Moana 2 also turning in a record Black Friday haul of $54.5M. Disney is now taking their five-day estimate for Moana 2 up to $215M-$220M, which is where rivals saw it all along. However, Disney played wise: Rather than project over their skis, they kept it conservative. Thanksgiving projections always turn on their axis both on Black Friday and Saturday, either up or down, from wherever forecasts were on Wednesday. Three-day is $140M now, which is the second best debut for Dwayne Johnson after Furious 7‘s $147.1M.

At $215M-$220M, not only is that a Thanksgiving five-day record for any title, opening or holdover, but it’s also the biggest five-day opening of all time, squashing Illumination/Universal’s Super Mario Bros Movie ($204.6M).

Those assuming that Moana 2 would cut into Wicked‘s business due to the latter’s two hour-40 minute runtime, well, you are wrong. So, wrong, wrong, wrong. At $118M over five days, the Universal feature take of the Broadway musical is posting the third best five-day haul for a movie over Thanksgiving, behind Moana 2 and Frozen 2 ($125M). In addition with $32M yesterday, Wicked owns the third best Black Friday box office for any title, behind Moana 2 and Frozen 2 ($34.1M). Popular, indeed. Tattoo it on your body, studio executives: Musicals aren’t dead.

Wicked deserves every ounce of its success.
 

Disney Analyst

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Wicked deserves every ounce of its success.

And I truly never doubted it finding success, assuming the movie was done well.

Wicked has been such an important part of my life, and is probably the show I can attribute to me finding broadway, understanding broadway, becoming a fan of broadway.

I knew musicals, I knew theatre, but Wicked brought my little 13 year old brain to New York City, the farthest place (to a kid) from my little hometown in Canada. I can remember the moment, it was the 2004 Tony Awards, and I saw this show perform, from my living room, with my family. My mind was blown away seeing the wicked witch flying in the air, and from there I was on a quest to learn more, to find every video I could, and dream of seeing the show in person. Which I finally did in 2006, in Seattle, with my dream cast (it was like fate truly stepped in for me, a 16 year old boy). I’ve lost count… but I think I’ve seen the show 13ish times now. 😅

Wicked was not a critical success on broadway, but it brought joy and wonder to so many of us, and truly turned into a global phenomenon.

It just makes sense to me that the movie would do the same, especially with it being received even better critically than it was on Broadway.
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
I think the real question with Wicked is if it can maintain this pace the rest of the holiday season. I mean its one thing to ride the wave over Thanksgiving, but it another to leg it out down the stretch over the next several weeks as we head to Christmas and the end of the year. It'll be interesting to watch to say the least.

The same can be said about Moana 2 also, but I think that has a better shot to leg it out at least until Mufasa.
 

Ghost93

Well-Known Member
I think the real question with Wicked is if it can maintain this pace the rest of the holiday season. I mean its one thing to ride the wave over Thanksgiving, but it another to leg it out down the stretch over the next several weeks as we head to Christmas and the end of the year. It'll be interesting to watch to say the least.

The same can be said about Moana 2 also, but I think that has a better shot to leg it out at least until Mufasa.
I suspect Moana 2 — even with mixed reception — will continue to dominate at the box office until the double whammy of Sonic and Mufassa knock it down a few pegs.

I think Wicked has a chance to leg out like the Greatest Showman throughout the holiday season. It will probably do well until early January.

What will help Wicked and Moana is the lack of a MAJOR December release like Star Wars, Avatar or a MCU film. Kraven the Hunter may not be a trainwreck like Morbius or Madame Web, but it's not going to make more than $1 billion like Spider-man: No Way Home. The Lord of the Rings: War of the Rohirrim will be more niche than a typical Middle Earth film, due to it being an anime and due to the Tolkien fandom being unusually insufferable about any type of deviation from Tolkien's writings.
 

Disney Analyst

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
I think the real question with Wicked is if it can maintain this pace the rest of the holiday season. I mean its one thing to ride the wave over Thanksgiving, but it another to leg it out down the stretch over the next several weeks as we head to Christmas and the end of the year. It'll be interesting to watch to say the least.

The same can be said about Moana 2 also, but I think that has a better shot to leg it out at least until Mufasa.

Based on second weekend, I think it has the legs. The fact Wicked has one of the top Thanksgiving periods alongside Moana 2 is huge.
 

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