Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

Disney Analyst

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
SATURDAY AM: Another day, another day of box office records being broken. The richest Black Friday ever at the box office with an estimated $108M had Disney’s Moana 2 also turning in a record Black Friday haul of $54.5M. Disney is now taking their five-day estimate for Moana 2 up to $215M-$220M, which is where rivals saw it all along. However, Disney played wise: Rather than project over their skis, they kept it conservative. Thanksgiving projections always turn on their axis both on Black Friday and Saturday, either up or down, from wherever forecasts were on Wednesday. Three-day is $140M now, which is the second best debut for Dwayne Johnson after Furious 7‘s $147.1M.

At $215M-$220M, not only is that a Thanksgiving five-day record for any title, opening or holdover, but it’s also the biggest five-day opening of all time, squashing Illumination/Universal’s Super Mario Bros Movie ($204.6M).

Those assuming that Moana 2 would cut into Wicked‘s business due to the latter’s two hour-40 minute runtime, well, you are wrong. So, wrong, wrong, wrong. At $118M over five days, the Universal feature take of the Broadway musical is posting the third best five-day haul for a movie over Thanksgiving, behind Moana 2 and Frozen 2 ($125M). In addition with $32M yesterday, Wicked owns the third best Black Friday box office for any title, behind Moana 2 and Frozen 2 ($34.1M). Popular, indeed. Tattoo it on your body, studio executives: Musicals aren’t dead.

 

LittleBuford

Well-Known Member
SATURDAY AM: Another day, another day of box office records being broken. The richest Black Friday ever at the box office with an estimated $108M had Disney’s Moana 2 also turning in a record Black Friday haul of $54.5M. Disney is now taking their five-day estimate for Moana 2 up to $215M-$220M, which is where rivals saw it all along. However, Disney played wise: Rather than project over their skis, they kept it conservative. Thanksgiving projections always turn on their axis both on Black Friday and Saturday, either up or down, from wherever forecasts were on Wednesday. Three-day is $140M now, which is the second best debut for Dwayne Johnson after Furious 7‘s $147.1M.

At $215M-$220M, not only is that a Thanksgiving five-day record for any title, opening or holdover, but it’s also the biggest five-day opening of all time, squashing Illumination/Universal’s Super Mario Bros Movie ($204.6M).

Those assuming that Moana 2 would cut into Wicked‘s business due to the latter’s two hour-40 minute runtime, well, you are wrong. So, wrong, wrong, wrong. At $118M over five days, the Universal feature take of the Broadway musical is posting the third best five-day haul for a movie over Thanksgiving, behind Moana 2 and Frozen 2 ($125M). In addition with $32M yesterday, Wicked owns the third best Black Friday box office for any title, behind Moana 2 and Frozen 2 ($34.1M). Popular, indeed. Tattoo it on your body, studio executives: Musicals aren’t dead.

Wicked deserves every ounce of its success.
 

Disney Analyst

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Wicked deserves every ounce of its success.

And I truly never doubted it finding success, assuming the movie was done well.

Wicked has been such an important part of my life, and is probably the show I can attribute to me finding broadway, understanding broadway, becoming a fan of broadway.

I knew musicals, I knew theatre, but Wicked brought my little 13 year old brain to New York City, the farthest place (to a kid) from my little hometown in Canada. I can remember the moment, it was the 2004 Tony Awards, and I saw this show perform, from my living room, with my family. My mind was blown away seeing the wicked witch flying in the air, and from there I was on a quest to learn more, to find every video I could, and dream of seeing the show in person. Which I finally did in 2006, in Seattle, with my dream cast (it was like fate truly stepped in for me, a 16 year old boy). I’ve lost count… but I think I’ve seen the show 13ish times now. 😅

Wicked was not a critical success on broadway, but it brought joy and wonder to so many of us, and truly turned into a global phenomenon.

It just makes sense to me that the movie would do the same, especially with it being received even better critically than it was on Broadway.
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
I think the real question with Wicked is if it can maintain this pace the rest of the holiday season. I mean its one thing to ride the wave over Thanksgiving, but it another to leg it out down the stretch over the next several weeks as we head to Christmas and the end of the year. It'll be interesting to watch to say the least.

The same can be said about Moana 2 also, but I think that has a better shot to leg it out at least until Mufasa.
 

Ghost93

Well-Known Member
I think the real question with Wicked is if it can maintain this pace the rest of the holiday season. I mean its one thing to ride the wave over Thanksgiving, but it another to leg it out down the stretch over the next several weeks as we head to Christmas and the end of the year. It'll be interesting to watch to say the least.

The same can be said about Moana 2 also, but I think that has a better shot to leg it out at least until Mufasa.
I suspect Moana 2 — even with mixed reception — will continue to dominate at the box office until the double whammy of Sonic and Mufassa knock it down a few pegs.

I think Wicked has a chance to leg out like the Greatest Showman throughout the holiday season. It will probably do well until early January.

What will help Wicked and Moana is the lack of a MAJOR December release like Star Wars, Avatar or a MCU film. Kraven the Hunter may not be a trainwreck like Morbius or Madame Web, but it's not going to make more than $1 billion like Spider-man: No Way Home. The Lord of the Rings: War of the Rohirrim will be more niche than a typical Middle Earth film, due to it being an anime and due to the Tolkien fandom being unusually insufferable about any type of deviation from Tolkien's writings.
 

Disney Analyst

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
I think the real question with Wicked is if it can maintain this pace the rest of the holiday season. I mean its one thing to ride the wave over Thanksgiving, but it another to leg it out down the stretch over the next several weeks as we head to Christmas and the end of the year. It'll be interesting to watch to say the least.

The same can be said about Moana 2 also, but I think that has a better shot to leg it out at least until Mufasa.

Based on second weekend, I think it has the legs. The fact Wicked has one of the top Thanksgiving periods alongside Moana 2 is huge.
 

LittleBuford

Well-Known Member
And I truly never doubted it finding success, assuming the movie was done well.

Wicked has been such an important part of my life, and is probably the show I can attribute to me finding broadway, understanding broadway, becoming a fan of broadway.

I knew musicals, I knew theatre, but Wicked brought my little 13 year old brain to New York City, the farthest place (to a kid) from my little hometown in Canada. I can remember the moment, it was the 2004 Tony Awards, and I saw this show perform, from my living room, with my family. My mind was blown away seeing the wicked witch flying in the air, and from there I was on a quest to learn more, to find every video I could, and dream of seeing the show in person. Which I finally did in 2006, in Seattle, with my dream cast (it was like fate truly stepped in for me, a 16 year old boy). I’ve lost count… but I think I’ve seen the show 13ish times now. 😅

Wicked was not a critical success on broadway, but it brought joy and wonder to so many of us, and truly turned into a global phenomenon.

It just makes sense to me that the movie would do the same, especially with it being received even better critically than it was on Broadway.
I’m having my Wicked moment much later in life (now!) with the movie adaptation. I have seen it on stage—once, many years ago—and certainly enjoyed the experience, but Erivo’s singing has made me connect with it in a whole new way. It puzzles me that the music wasn’t better received by critics.
 
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MisterPenguin

President of Animal Kingdom
Premium Member
I’m having my Wicked moment much later in life (now!) with the movie adaptation. I have seen it on stage—once, many years ago—and certainly enjoyed the experience, but Erivo’s singing has made me connect with it in a whole new way. It puzzles me that the music wasn’t better received by critics.
It has its star song.

And 2-3 other memorable ones.

The rest are all "Fixer Upper."

That's two hours worth of Fixer Uppers.



Compare that to Moana (original) in which just about every song is an earworm. Or Encanto in which almost every song spent some time on Billboard Top 100.


It's difficult to have every song in a musical a smashing success. Just like it's difficult for a recording artist to put out an album in which all songs become hit-singles.
 
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LittleBuford

Well-Known Member
It has it's star song.

And 2-3 other memorable ones.

The rest are all "Fixer Upper."

That's two hours worth of Fixer Uppers.



Compare that to Moana (original) in which just about every song is an earworm. Or Encanto in which almost every song spent some time on Billboard Top 100.


It's difficult to have every song in a musical a smashing success. Just like it's difficult for a recording artist to put out an album that all become hit-singles.
Don't come at me, but I personally find both Moana and (especially) Encanto overrated musically. Wicked has a stronger soundtrack than either in my opinion.
 

MisterPenguin

President of Animal Kingdom
Premium Member
Don't come at me, but I personally find both Moana and (especially) Encanto overrated musically. Wicked has a stronger soundtrack than either in my opinion.
penguin come at me.gif
 

Ghost93

Well-Known Member
Don't come at me, but I personally find both Moana and (especially) Encanto overrated musically. Wicked has a stronger soundtrack than either in my opinion.
I love No one Mourns the Wicked, Dancing Through LIfe, Defying Gravity, As Long as You're Mine, No Good Deed and For Good.

The Wizard and I, What is this Feeling, Popular and I'm Not That Girl are all pretty good.

I could take or leave the rest of the songs.

Hamilton and Les Miserables are the only stage musicals I can think of where I love almost every song.
 

Farerb

Well-Known Member
Don't come at me, but I personally find both Moana and (especially) Encanto overrated musically. Wicked has a stronger soundtrack than either in my opinion.
I like the songs on Wicked, but I thought Stephen Schwartz' work on Prince of Egypt was superior.

Menken > Schwartz > LMM > Lopezes.

No one comes close to Ashman though.
 

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