Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

Disney Analyst

Well-Known Member
Original Poster


Moanapocalypse has arrived.

Moana 2 amassed a record-shattering $13.8 million in Tuesday previews, the biggest preview number ever for a Walt Disney Animation title and the second-biggest for any animated film behind sister Pixar’s Incredibles 2 ($18.5 million). That’s quite a feat, considering that the Incredibles sequel opened in the summer. On Tuesday, only 48 percent of schools were out and 20 percent of colleges, per Disney”
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
The original film was produced by MGM, and I believe its rights were acquired by WB. MGM’s license to permit Disney to use certain imagery was famously limited by MGM as the Imagineers learned the hard way while developing the Great Movie Ride. That agreement has likely lapsed by now, and WB has a much better theme park relationship with Universal.

Disney can use certain public domain stuff, and can use its Oz The Great and Powerful iconography. But stuff like the Ruby Slippers are likely hands off.
I never mentioned the original movie for a reason. As any land Disney would build in this scenario would be based off their Oz movies.

When Disney was doing their Oz movie they didn't need to license anything beyond the original iconography of the original film from WB, (such as they licensed the Ruby slippers from WB, as the original movie rights already had moved to WB by that point, ie it was only 11 year ago time flies I know), as they already have the film rights to all the other Baum books. This is why Disney was able to do Return to Oz on the 80s. So any land they build would be based off their own movies and the rest of the Baum books, not the original film or the new Wicked film.

Just an FYI, there were rumors at the time the movie came out in 2013 of Disney looking to build an Oz land in Disneyland. So it was something they were already considering just a decade ago.
 

Miss Rori

Well-Known Member
Disney has the film rights to all other Baum books, something they picked up in 50s and maintained. Its the reason why no one has ever done a follow-up to the original but Disney when they did Return to Oz in the 80s.
This isn't really relevant anymore, as all 14 Baum-penned Oz novels are now public domain, as are some of the successor novels by Ruth Plumly Thompson. (In fact, there are a surprising number of low-budget Oz-inspired movies, miniseries, and TV shows out there that just don't get talked up.) So the main issue Disney would have is that it wouldn't be able to use copyrighted material from the MGM film due to current rights holder WB's tight hold on the property, and for a lot of people if not most, that's their idea of Oz. Universal has the upper hand here if they want to incorporate Wicked material, which is copyrighted, into their parks. (Actually, they already did for a while at the Japanese park, which featured a stage show featuring highlights from the first act about a decade ago!)
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
This isn't really relevant anymore, as all 14 Baum-penned Oz novels are now public domain, as are some of the successor novels by Ruth Plumly Thompson. (In fact, there are a surprising number of low-budget Oz-inspired movies, miniseries, and TV shows out there that just don't get talked up.) So the main issue Disney would have is that it wouldn't be able to use copyrighted material from the MGM film due to current rights holder WB's tight hold on the property, and for a lot of people if not most, that's their idea of Oz. Universal has the upper hand here if they want to incorporate Wicked material, which is copyrighted, into their parks. (Actually, they already did for a while at the Japanese park, which featured a stage show featuring highlights from the first act about a decade ago!)
Be that as it may regarding the books being in public domain, once again Disney would not need ANYTHING from the original movie as their Oz movies have very little to do with it outside of a couple iconic props which wouldn't be needed in this case. Disney built their own version of Oz in both Return to Oz from the 80s and in Oz Great and Powerful from 2013. So there is enough from those two movies that they could build their own land without ever needing anything from the original movie. Again there was a rumor of them considering it back in 2013 for Disneyland.

And speaking of public domain, the original movie makes its way to public domain in 10 years so all of that concern that people have is moot after that point anyways.
 

DKampy

Well-Known Member
Totally forgot (until catching the trailer again last night) that A Complete Unknown is also a Searchlight release. With Chalamet's popularity and the recent success of musician biopics that could end up doing pretty well for Disney, though it's carrying an R rating.
It will be interesting to see how A complete Unknown does as it won’t have all the holiday tentpoles to compete with…. I could see Chalamet getting a best actor nod if he nails Dylan(with the little we have seen in the trailer it seems he might)… especially since apparently it is his singing they are using rather than a voice track
 

BrianLo

Well-Known Member

Disney Analyst

Well-Known Member
Original Poster

Starting to call a 170+M five day (Frozen 2 was 125M); another case of the first 24H trailer views actually indexing to opening weekends.

I feel like I said something about the trailer views now being one of our best indicators 😅 (not perfect of course …)
 

Jedijax719

Well-Known Member
M2 is looking at topping $200 million domestically (probably closer to $220-$230million) for the 5-day holiday. While it won't surpass Inside out 2, M2 should end up over $500 million domestic and should easily reach $1 billion world wide.
 

DisneyWarrior27

Well-Known Member
M2 is looking at topping $200 million domestically (probably closer to $220-$230million) for the 5-day holiday. While it won't surpass Inside out 2, M2 should end up over $500 million domestic and should easily reach $1 billion world wide.
Which is good news, potentially, for turning Tiana’s Disney+ series into The Princess and the Frog 2 for movie theaters, though hopefully for a Thanksgiving 2029 release so they don’t rush it and give it the time to make it hand-drawn animated.

I mean if Disney can turn Moana 2, live-action Lilo & Stitch, Freakier Friday, The Princess Diaries 3, and The Mandalorian & Gorgu, and Armor Wars into theatrical releases, the same should be said for Tiana, too.
 

Tony the Tigger

Well-Known Member
Disney would not need ANYTHING from the original movie as their Oz movies have very little to do with it outside of a couple iconic props which wouldn't be needed in this case. Disney built their own version of Oz in both Return to Oz from the 80s and in Oz Great and Powerful from 2013.
I’m just saying: neither of which had anywhere near the impact of Wicked. If Wicked created new stuff, people would go with it. When Disney created new stuff, people longed for the old stuff, because some itch wasn’t being scratched. It was like the Star Wars prequels (to me.) The best parts were missing.

Replacing Judy Garland would be daunting. I don’t think anyone wants to touch remaking the original to reset the series.

If Disney were to create anything related to Oz, people will come with expectations of Luke, Leia, and Han - I mean, Dorothy & friends. The land was cool, but it was the characters we loved most.

Wicked found the magic. The Great Oz film was enjoyable, but not…shall we say, perennial, as is the original.

It’s not so easy to make something people love.

Disney loses this round, IMO.
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
I’m just saying: neither of which had anywhere near the impact of Wicked. If Wicked created new stuff, people would go with it. When Disney created new stuff, people longed for the old stuff, because some itch wasn’t being scratched. It was like the Star Wars prequels (to me.) The best parts were missing.

Replacing Judy Garland would be daunting. I don’t think anyone wants to touch remaking the original to reset the series.

If Disney were to create anything related to Oz, people will come with expectations of Luke, Leia, and Han - I mean, Dorothy & friends. The land was cool, but it was the characters we loved most.

Wicked found the magic. The Great Oz film was enjoyable, but not…shall we say, perennial, as is the original.

It’s not so easy to make something people love.

Disney loses this round, IMO.
We’re talking about a land in a theme park. So I don’t see how one would come with expectations of having specific characters and the other wouldn’t. If one has that expectation so would the other in my opinion, as the general public isn’t going to get into the weeds about the differences between the source material, they’ll just see Oz.
 

Tony the Tigger

Well-Known Member
We’re talking about a land in a theme park. So I don’t see how one would come with expectations of having specific characters and the other wouldn’t. If one has that expectation so would the other in my opinion, as the general public isn’t going to get into the weeds about the differences between the source material, they’ll just see Oz.
Sorry, thought it was about movies.

As we know, 1939 was well-represented in TGMR. That’s gone.

The idea of “generic Oz” sounds almost as bad as “Generic Space” a la Galaxy’s Edge. Relating it to Disney’s Oz is about the same, I think.

If you don’t have access to the copyrights for the source material, you’re not really giving the people what they want, so don’t bother.You would have to create a masterpiece to make it work.
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
Sorry, thought it was about movies.

As we know, 1939 was well-represented in TGMR. That’s gone.

The idea of “generic Oz” sounds almost as bad as “Generic Space” a la Galaxy’s Edge. Relating it to Disney’s Oz is about the same, I think.

If you don’t have access to the copyrights for the source material, you’re not really giving the people what they want, so don’t bother.You would have to create a masterpiece to make it work.
Dunno, venturing through the Land of Oz with the Emerald City being the “weenie” would be interesting to me, and I would think most people.
 

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