Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[BrianLo]

I honestly don't know what that means.

The marketing budget is not spent entirely on the theatrical window. But you only want to calculate profitability on the theatrical window. But count money literally spent on marketing DVD’s and streaming rights. Or portions of the marketing budgets paid for by partners.

So if you took half what you are calculating as the marketing for the theatrical window and ignored the other half (since it’s spent on the post theatrical release), your numbers would be accurate.

Aka 1/4. I clarified exactly the modification you need to make right below my post. And probably 50 other times. Which is why I accused you of trolling me, whether that is accurate or not. I am literally just trying to help you make your calculations more accurate to match the financial reports and have been for the better part of 6 months.

 

[BrianLo]

Remind me again, what's your narrative on why Strange World, Lightyear, Little Mermaid and The Marvels all tanked at the box office?

I remember what my narrative was;

That’s my point… I’m not trying to analyze the box office to support a single narrative.

You are often looking for faults in movies that, sometimes, don’t even exist. Because you haven’t even seen these movies. I think every movie is unique in its factors. But ya, ultimately the movies didn’t connect. I know you want to paint with a single brush, but that’s not how the box office works. Because Barbie and Deadpool were as progressive as they come. Most of Disneys movies were just more bland/bad than actually controversial, if you watched them.

 

[BrianLo]

All your other rantings aside I push back on this. Alien: Romulus is not a flop, not even "kinda". The movie is already in profitability range at being 2.8x its production budget, even using your 60/40 estimates. Now its not a lot of profit, but its still in the profit range, meaning its not a flop.

And with nothing major releasing for Labor Day it'll continue to grow over the next week. So I could see it potentially adding another $35M-50M or so between now and the end of the holiday weekend, especially overseas.

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What fresh analysis misdirects are we dealing with now? The movie has literally been out two weekends… and it has already broken even.

 

[Disney Irish]

What fresh analysis misdirects are we dealing with now? The movie has literally been out two weekends… and it has already broken even.

Just the normal, trying to call Disney movies flops based on incorrect calculations.

 

[Disney Irish]

Another weekend with no major releases. Disney appears to be trying to pad Inside Out 2's box office with an increase of 1100 theaters as they take advantage of the long weekend. But other than that not much is expected to change this Labor Day Weekend.

Thursday Night Preview -

 

[DKampy]

Another weekend with no major releases. Disney appears to be trying to pad Inside Out 2's box office with an increase of 1100 theaters as they take advantage of the long weekend. But other than that not much is expected to change this Labor Day Weekend.

Thursday Night Preview -

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Yes…. Your average Labor Day weekend at The theater…. Labor Day is typically one of the worst weekends of the year at the box office…Studios don’t usually even attempt to compete

 

[Disney Irish]

Yes…. Your average Labor Day weekend at The theater…. Labor Day is typically one of the worst weekends of the year at the box office…Studios don’t usually even attempt to compete

It’s a funny talking point because it’s not that bad. As studios like Disney have released on Labor Day weekend before and done well. For example Shang Chi was released Labor Day and did well just a few years ago.

Kraven was suppose to release this weekend before Sony got sacred.

 

[DKampy]

It’s a funny talking point because it’s not that bad. As studios like Disney have released on Labor Day weekend before and done well. For example Shang Chi was released Labor Day and did well just a few years ago.

Kraven was suppose to release this weekend before Sony got sacred.

I actually agree… I think movies can open any time of year and be successful…my main point was the Studios don’t usually have enough faith to compete… hence Kraven backing away… I really Think Kraven should of stayed on that date as there will be less competition then over the holidays

 

[Disney Irish]

I actually agree… I think movies can open any time of year and be successful…my main point was the Studios don’t usually have enough faith to compete… hence Kraven backing away… I really Think Kraven should of stayed on that date as there will be less competition then over the holidays

I'm pretty sure Sony is kicking themselves right now for moving Kraven.

 

[Disney Analyst]

 

[BrianLo]

No more gaslighting needed

 

[BrianLo]

‘Deadpool & Wolverine’ Crossing $600M In $3.6 Billion Summer; Disney Dominates With $1.5 Billion – Labor Day Box Office

Summer box office is winding down with $3.6 billion as 'Deadpool & Wolverine' are expected to win the Labor Day weekend and hit $600M.

deadline.com

Sunday morning write-through includes a nice domestic post mortem of the studio majors. Disney/20th century the undisputed comeback king this year.

 

[Disney Irish]

‘Deadpool & Wolverine’ Crossing $600M In $3.6 Billion Summer; Disney Dominates With $1.5 Billion – Labor Day Box Office

Summer box office is winding down with $3.6 billion as 'Deadpool & Wolverine' are expected to win the Labor Day weekend and hit $600M.

deadline.com

Sunday morning write-through includes a nice domestic post mortem of the studio majors. Disney/20th century the undisputed comeback king this year.

DP&W also crosses the $600M mark domestic, making it only the 6th MCU movie to do so.

 

[Ghost93]

We finally have the trailer for Searchlight (Disney's) Nightb*tch, starring Amy Adams. I have no idea what to make of it, but it will be a tough sell for the Oscars. And I can't imagine it being a box office hit.

I suspect the tone of the trailer is a bit more lighthearted than what the actual movie will be, but this is just a weird and hard sell.

 

[brideck]

We finally have the trailer for Searchlight (Disney's) Nightb*tch, starring Amy Adams. I have no idea what to make of it, but it will be a tough sell for the Oscars. And I can't imagine it being a box office hit.

This was originally going to be a Hulu-only release, wasn't it? Any box office will be good for it, especially if it manages to garner any nominations. Heller has gotten Oscar noms for her actors in offbeat roles before (Melissa McCarthy & Richard E. Grant), so anything is possible here.

I suspect the tone of the trailer is a bit more lighthearted than what the actual movie will be, but this is just a weird and hard sell.

I agree that the tone of the trailer is... interesting. I've heard the book is pretty dark, and the movie is rated R, so I'm not sure how much they're potentially hiding here.

 

[DKampy]

I agree that the tone of the trailer is... interesting. I've heard the book is pretty dark, and the movie is rated R, so I'm not sure how much they're potentially hiding here.

I agree with others on the trailer…it was not what I was expecting…. If there is an awards play I suspect it will be a best actress nod for Amy Adams… who I will always root for as she is one of my all time favorites actresses

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Wasn't expecting Beetlejuice to have a $100 million opening weekend, but it looks like that may happen.

 

[Disney Irish]

Wasn't expecting Beetlejuice to have a $100 million opening weekend, but it looks like that may happen.

Nostalgia is a huge draw. While I wouldn't say it held up when compared to the first one, it did work overall.

$80-100M I thought would have been doable for opening, long term though, I'm not sure how much it'll have legs beyond next week with a bunch of competition from other family films and horror films opening over the next few weeks.

 

[erasure fan1]

$80-100M I thought would have been doable for opening, long term though, I'm not sure how much it'll have legs beyond next week with a bunch of competition from other family films and horror films opening over the next few weeks.

This one is kind of a strange release. It reminds me of haunted mansion. Why not release it for Halloween? Like haunted mansion, I think it does better as a last week of September or first week of October. I don't think it's all that strong of a fall line up. Transformers one, wild robot, venom, joker. Wild robots is the end of September and Joker is that first weekend in October. Release it the 4th as kids aren't going to see Joker. I don't know, it just screams Halloween release in my opinion.

 

[Disney Irish]

This one is kind of a strange release. It reminds me of haunted mansion. Why not release it for Halloween? Like haunted mansion, I think it does better as a last week of September or first week of October. I don't think it's all that strong of a fall line up. Transformers one, wild robot, venom, joker. Wild robots is the end of September and Joker is that first weekend in October. Release it the 4th as kids aren't going to see Joker. I don't know, it just screams Halloween release in my opinion.

Well not all horror or spooky movies need to be released around Halloween. But yes I agree it should have been released in October, not to give anything away, as the movie is specifically about Halloween as well.

My gut tells me the thinking is they want it on digital around Halloween which is why Uni released it now.