Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[BrianLo]

That's not trolling, that's just not agreeing with your formula that doesn't reflect the often broad sweeps of domestic vs. overseas box office many Disney films have.

You like a formula that takes a blanket approach, that a film breaks even at 2.4 times its production budget. Always.

I have a formula that has more nuance; a film's break even is determined by taking its production budget, adding 50% of that figure for distribution/marketing (unless Disney brags beforehand about spending even more, like they did with the $140 Million they announced spending on Little Mermaid global marketing last year), and then taking 60% of the domestic box office and 40% of the overseas box office. The result hopefully creates a profit for Burbank.

We can agree to disagree on which formula is better. Sometimes my formula helps Disney films when it does better domestically than overseas, and sometimes your formula helps Disney films when the domestic and overseas box office are even. But in the case of many Disney films, where overseas box office flopped spectacularly (Lightyear, Strange World, Little Mermaid, etc.) my formula can cause Disney films to be weaker than just giving them a blanket 2.4x treatment, as if the overseas box office created the same profit margin as the domestic box office (when it doesn't).

No. I’m really just not sure if you don’t get what I’ve said in the past. For which I apologize. By the way I’m honestly not just referring to you, even though it seems like I am.

I do not have any issue whatsoever with you breaking out domestic and international. That’s fine. It’s just your marketing benchmark is completely made up. And you for some reason require a film to cover its post theatrical marketing spend with theatrical dollar figures. That’s it.

If you’d just quarter the production as a pre theatrical spend you’d have my unending blessing.

It’s the costs I take issue with, not the nuance. Because the costs are founded on a very clear industry profitability rule and merely inferred, incorrectly as an actual accurate marketing spend by you. Which it isn’t. It’s often grossly undercalling the final total marketing for any movie that’s mildly successful

 

[BrianLo]

0.6Xdomestic + 0.4xinternational - Production Budget + 0.25xProduction Budget = rough theatrical window earnings.

 

[Farerb]

Did no one here see Beetlejuice lol?

No. Jenna Ortega is extremely overrated.

 

[LittleBuford]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but that reads to me like what you don't like is opinions that differ from your own.

You are indeed wrong. I’m referring to commentary that masquerades as analysis but cannot possibly be that when the person offering it has no firsthand knowledge of the films he’s talking about.

 

[DKampy]

Hard facts and data about Box Office get you down?

In defense of the data, it changes every week for newer films so it's helpful to update it as it changes. And then in retrospect, it paints a very clear picture of the response by global audiences in a free market once the films leave theaters.

I find that type of data and factual box office information interesting in general, which is why this thread was created by someone else, to discuss box office facts and data. That leaves the individual movie threads open for discussions about plots and artistic opinions of the various movies.

I am not the one who has issues with facts… I have seen people correct you on things you have said…. But you continue post the same items you have repeated ad nauseam which you did not post weekly but everyday… but now that Disney is seeing success… no reason to post daily anymorre

By the way are you excited…. The reason you gave for caring about the Box Office is Disney was not spending as much money in the parks as you would like…. They are now spending more money than they have in years…. Magic Kingdom is even getting a night parade

 

[BrianLo]

‘Inside Out 2’ Becomes First Animated Movie Ever To Cross $1B Overseas; All Major Titles Hold Strong – International Box Office

Inside Out 2 has become the first animated movie ever to cross $1B at the international box office, and is one of only 12 films ever to the milestone

deadline.com

One more record to go for IO2. No longer being the top animated grossing film* when it surpasses Lion King 2019’s run, with 8 more million to go.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

‘Inside Out 2’ Becomes First Animated Movie Ever To Cross $1B Overseas; All Major Titles Hold Strong – International Box Office

Inside Out 2 has become the first animated movie ever to cross $1B at the international box office, and is one of only 12 films ever to the milestone

deadline.com

One more record to go for IO2. No longer being the top animated grossing film* when it surpasses Lion King 2019’s run, with 8 more million to go.

Did anyone see this coming?

I expected it to do well ($500m-750m) but would have called you crazy had you said it would surpass Frozen levels of income.

 

[Disney Irish]

Weekend numbers are out, and as predicted DP&W was number 1, with Romulus close behind at number 2 -

 

[brideck]

‘Inside Out 2’ Becomes First Animated Movie Ever To Cross $1B Overseas; All Major Titles Hold Strong – International Box Office

Inside Out 2 has become the first animated movie ever to cross $1B at the international box office, and is one of only 12 films ever to the milestone

deadline.com

One more record to go for IO2. No longer being the top animated grossing film* when it surpasses Lion King 2019’s run, with 8 more million to go.

And we still haven't even seen it yet. That's gonna be a solid $12 more (or whatever the current A-List rate x2 is) for it at the box office. This week. Hopefully. Maybe.

 

[TP2000]

By the way, since I started it, I was never talking about you guys.

I’m talking about spending the better part of a year not correcting “the data”, but correcting the analysis. Which is often falsely presented to twist facts. Not in pursuit of the data, but to drive a narrative.

Remind me again, what's your narrative on why Strange World, Lightyear, Little Mermaid and The Marvels all tanked at the box office?

I remember what my narrative was; they all tanked because they were horribly misaligned with their own target audience demographics. But what's your narrative why those four tentpole films tanked at the box office?

I'll leave Indy 5 out of it, due to its embarrassingly bloated budget of $300 Million that required a small fleet of private jets to transport the "stars" halfway around the world to receive a 5 minute standing ovation at Cannes, just to remind them how valuable they all are as humans.

 

[TP2000]

I do not have any issue whatsoever with you breaking out domestic and international. That’s fine. It’s just your marketing benchmark is completely made up.

Actually, I Googled it just over a year ago. And it told me this... It's a fairly standard math formula for movie marketing:

According to Google, and Variety and a few other industry sources, I am going easy on marketing at only 50% of the production budget. But it's easy that way, and I as I hate math, easier is better. Unless Disney gets so bold as to brag that they spent more than just 50% of their production budget on marketing, like when they admitted last year they spent $140 Million to market Little Mermaid on its $250 Million production budget.

If you’d just quarter the production as a pre theatrical spend you’d have my unending blessing.

I honestly don't know what that means. It sounds like something the table next to me at a Silver Lake brunch would be talking about, in a voice slightly louder than necessary, in order to establish to the tables nearby that they are very cool people who work in the industry.

I've been to some really nice brunch places with some fabulous people, but I'm the type to enjoy just observing the spectacle and the preening and the slightly too-loud conversation about impressive topics, rather than participate in it.

 

[TP2000]

You are indeed wrong. I’m referring to commentary that masquerades as analysis but cannot possibly be that when the person offering it has no firsthand knowledge of the films he’s talking about.

So you can't observe from the box office data and financial facts that Strange World and Lightyear and Indy 5 and The Marvels were global box office flops unless you actually bought a ticket to each of those movies?

 

[TP2000]

I am not the one who has issues with facts… I have seen people correct you on things you have said…. But you continue post the same items you have repeated ad nauseam which you did not post weekly but everyday… but now that Disney is seeing success… no reason to post daily anymorre

Disney has three movies out this summer, after sending stuff like Snow White back to the drawing board for a year and slimming down their '24 slate while they rethink woke artistic strategies company-wide.

Disney had two movies that did gangbusters this summer (IO2, Deadpool), one that kind of flopped (Aliens). I look forward to doing a End Of Summer Box Office Recap after Labor Day to see what the numbers were like.

By the way are you excited…. The reason you gave for caring about the Box Office is Disney was not spending as much money in the parks as you would like…. They are now spending more money than they have in years…. Magic Kingdom is even getting a night parade

No. The limited time I've spent on the forums discussing stuff the past few busy weeks has been mostly spent amazed at how blazingly idiotic the current Experiences execs seem to be. And Josh D'amaro should be ashamed for lying burying the lead in his Cars announcement by purposely not mentioning what has to go to get a Cars ride. See my posts in the Rivers of America threads for that.

As for a night parade at Magic Kingdom... They needed a new one 20 years ago. And their recent track record is so weak that I'm not going to pat them on the back until the new parade actually shows up, and we can see whether its actually good or not. I have modest hopes it will be acceptable. Paint The Night good? One can hope, but I'm not holding my breath.

And I hope you aren't, either. They have burned us too many times, on too many projects, to trust them right now.

 

[Disney Irish]

one that kind of flopped (Aliens).

All your other rantings aside I push back on this. Alien: Romulus is not a flop, not even "kinda". The movie is already in profitability range at being 2.8x its production budget, even using your 60/40 estimates. Now its not a lot of profit, but its still in the profit range, meaning its not a flop.

And with nothing major releasing for Labor Day it'll continue to grow over the next week. So I could see it potentially adding another $35M-50M or so between now and the end of the holiday weekend, especially overseas.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

So unless I read it wrong…didn’t people say that Downey and Evans left by choice and it wasn’t about the money?


…right

 

[erasure fan1]

All your other rantings aside I push back on this. Alien: Romulus is not a flop, not even "kinda". The movie is already in profitability range at being 2.8x its production budget, even using your 60/40 estimates. Now its not a lot of profit, but its still in the profit range, meaning its not a flop.

With marketing it still has a bit to go. It probably needs to hit 240mil to be squarely in the green. I see no reason it shouldn't make it. While I'm not really an alien fan. I don't know too many people who didn't like it. So it's got really good word of mouth because it's a quality film. It won't hit blockbuster status, but it doesn't need to. This is the kind of film that if it was a 150mil budget, it's another YouTube foder film. But with a smart budget, good quality, you have a film that will make money and bring people in to streaming.

So unless I read it wrong…didn’t people say that Downey and Evans left by choice and it wasn’t about the money?


…right

Yea, I said many times, give it a year or so and back up the dump truck of $$$ and they will come back. Sure they wanted to go do other things besides the mcu. But it was never a I'm done forever thing. That was just code for what are you willing to pay me.

 

[Disney Irish]

With marketing it still has a bit to go. It probably needs to hit 240mil to be squarely in the green. I see no reason it shouldn't make it. While I'm not really an alien fan. I don't know too many people who didn't like it. So it's got really good word of mouth because it's a quality film. It won't hit blockbuster status, but it doesn't need to. This is the kind of film that if it was a 150mil budget, it's another YouTube foder film. But with a smart budget, good quality, you have a film that will make money and bring people in to streaming.

The industry rule of thumb is anything between 2.5-3.0x production budget is considered within profitability range. At 2.8x it definitely hit that, and by next Monday the end of Labor Day weekend I don't see any reason why it couldn't potentially be at over 3.0x, especially if overseas keeps going.

Yea, I said many times, give it a year or so and back up the dump truck of $$$ and they will come back. Sure they wanted to go do other things besides the mcu. But it was never a I'm done forever thing. That was just code for what are you willing to pay me.

I agree, they did want to do other things, but it never meant they couldn't come back in the future. It just meant they wanted to take a break and not be tied down to only being in the MCU. Unfortunately some mistook some of us saying they wanted to do other things as meaning we're saying they're never coming back and doing an MCU movie ever again.

Also unless I missed something Evans isn't really back yet, he had a cameo in DP&W playing Johnny Storm, its not confirmed he is back to play Steve again. And he didn't earn a whole lot for that cameo as I understand it, so it wasn't about the money. As for RDJ, well he obviously isn't playing Tony either or at least not the Tony we know. As for the money, obviously its been reported he is making a truckload but its clear that its meant to be a multi-picture deal, so it spreads out per movie to be less than one would expect.

 

[DKampy]

I could Imagine Robert Downey Jr may not just come back only for the pay check…. But also To play the villain this time around may have been too juicy to pass up

 

[wtyy21]

‘Inside Out 2’ Becomes First Animated Movie Ever To Cross $1B Overseas; All Major Titles Hold Strong – International Box Office

Inside Out 2 has become the first animated movie ever to cross $1B at the international box office, and is one of only 12 films ever to the milestone

deadline.com

One more record to go for IO2. No longer being the top animated grossing film* when it surpasses Lion King 2019’s run, with 8 more million to go.

Actually, it's still have $13.4M gap between IO2 and 2019 TLK (including re-releases). Anyways, IO2 will definitely surpass the latter on Labor Day weekend, with only adding $15M to $20M total box office earnings for IO2 to become the highest-grossing animated film all-time. Left side is for The Lion King 2019, while the right side is Inside Out 2.

UPDATE (8/31): The box office number of 2019 The Lion King is inflated at Box Office Mojo. The actual BO number of The Lion King 2019 is $1,656,943,394, which means that Inside Out 2 will surpass TLK '19 (still at Labor Day Weekend) with much smaller gap (around $6.3M).

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

All your other rantings aside I push back on this. Alien: Romulus is not a flop, not even "kinda". The movie is already in profitability range at being 2.8x its production budget, even using your 60/40 estimates. Now its not a lot of profit, but its still in the profit range, meaning its not a flop.

And with nothing major releasing for Labor Day it'll continue to grow over the next week. So I could see it potentially adding another $35M-50M or so between now and the end of the holiday weekend, especially overseas.

Pretty good for a relatively low budget film that was meant to go straight to streaming originally.